Albany City School District

Transcription

1 Albany City School District Enrollment and Demographics Dr. Jim Butterworth, CASDA

2 Introduction Projection: Projects the past and present demographics into the future in order to estimate population. Forecast: A projection is modified by taking into account any factors that may affect population (fertility rates, housing patterns, migration). This study is a FORECAST. The main function of these forecasts is to determine what impact demographic changes will have on future enrollment.

3 Data Data Sources Demographic Factors Considered Albany Public Schools (Enrollment Data) Past migration patterns NYS Department of Health (Birth and Death Data) Current age specific fertility patterns Internal Revenue Service (Migration Data) Magnitude and dynamics of gross migration US Bureau of the Census (Migration Models) Age-specific mortality trends 2010 Census (Age-Sex population counts) Distribution of population by age and sex Rate and type of housing unit sales Housing tenure Amount of future housing unit construction Change in household size

4 Assumptions Mortality probabilities are held constant at the levels calculated in 2010 Fertility rates are assumed to stay fairly constant The total fertility rate (TFR), or average number of births a woman will have in her lifetime while living in the Albany City SD is A TFR of 2.1 is needed for population to remain constant. Age specific pattern of net migration will be nearly constant The forecasts assume the current economic, political, transportation and public works infrastructure, social and environment factors will remain the same

5 Methodology Cohort-Component Method of population forecasting used Five required data sets: Base year population Set of age-specific fertility rates for each planning area Set of age-specific mortality rates for each planning area Set of age-specific migration rates for each planning area Historical enrollment figures by grade

6 Results and Analysis of Population Forecasts Major demographic factors that will influence the growth rate in the Albany City School District: The majority of householders that moved to Albany are late 20s and early 30s and they are reducing the overall proportion at risk of having children; The remaining population in childbearing ages (15-45) will have fewer children, particularly those with post-secondary degrees; The local, non-college 18 to 24-year old population will continue to leave the area to go to college or to other urban areas, with the magnitude of this outmigration flow increasing; and There will be an increase in housing stock that will be occupied by young professionals. The majority of in-migrating families will be into existing homes

7 Results and Analysis of Enrollment Forecasts Elementary Schools: The total PK-5 enrollment is forecasted to decrease from 4,914 in to 4,638 in (-2.6%). Most of this decrease will be due to the KIPP K-5 program in Area A. Middle Schools: The total middle school enrollment is forecasted to grow from 1,951 in to 2,311 in (+18.4%). Most of this increase is due to the closing of charter middle schools.

8 Executive Summary The total fertility rate over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level Most non-college in-migration to the district occurs in the 0-4 and year old age groups. The local year old population continues to leave the district, going to college or other urban areas. The primary factor causing enrollment increases is the steady level of in-migration of young households/families and an increase in households over age 70 that are out-migrating to make way for younger families.

9 Executive Summary Changes in year-to-year total enrollment (for at least the next 5 years) will primarily be due to larger cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with smaller cohorts leaving. The elementary enrollment will stabilize after The median age of the population will increase from 30.4 in 2010 to 31.6 in This is a significant increase for a district that has a large university inside its boundaries. The total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 386 students, or 4.1% between and Total enrollment will grow by 81 students, or.8% from to

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12 ACSD Enrollment (6/2016 and 9/2016) Arbor Hill ASH Giffen Montessori Schuyler Sheridan TOAST Pine Hills Delaware New Scotland N Albany Eagle Point June 2016 Enrollment Sept 2016 Enrollment Building Capacity

13 5360 ACSD Elem Schools Enrollment All Elementary Schools Enrollment Change (9/15 to 9/16) % Change +2% All Elem Schools Sep-15 Sep-16 Building Capacity

14 District Total Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment

15 PK-5 Total Enrollment 4850 Enrollment Enrollment

16 Grades 6-8 Total Enrollment 2350 Enrollment Enrollment

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18 Area A 700 Current and Projected Enrollment MS ES

19 Area A 20 % Change in Projected Enrollment MS ES

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21 Area B Current and Projected Enrollment MS ES

22 Area B % Change in Projected Enrollment MS ES

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24 Area C Current and Projected Enrollment MS ES

25 Area C % Change in Projected Enrollment MS ES

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27 Area D Current and Projected Enrollment MS ES

28 Area D % Change in Projected Enrollment MS ES

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30 Area E Current and Projected Enrollment MS ES

31 Area E % Change in Projected Enrollment MS ES