Enrollment Trends and Projections

Transcription

1 Bainbridge Island School District Enrollment Trends and Projections William L. ( Les ) Kendrick Educational Data Solutions, LLC P.O. Box 9693 Seattle, WA Revised May 2012

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary.. 3 Introduction... 6 Enrollment Trends... 8 Bainbridge Island and the County.. 8 Puget Sound Enrollment. 17 Kitsap County Trends: The Future 19 Grade Level Enrollment Trends. 24 Births and Birth Forecasts Population and Population Forecasts Census Forecast Housing and Housing Forecasts Enrollment Forecasts 45 School Forecasts Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

3 Executive e Summary Major Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations Enrollment in the Bainbridge Island School District has been declining in recent years after an extended period of growth. Enrollment was up in the 1990 s due to larger birth cohorts entering the schools and strong population growth hin Kitsap County and the Puget Sound. In the past decade enrollment growth has slowed in Bainbridge Island, the county, and the Puget Sound. This is a reflection of fewer births and slower population p growth throughout the region. The Bainbridge Island School District has increased its share of the general population and the K-12 population over the past two decades. This was especially true between 2002 and 2006 when sales of new and existing homes sales were strong in the District and the county. New and existing home sales have slowed since 2006 in the county and in the District leading to a net loss of students since that time. 3 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

4 Executive Summary Consistent with the trends in other districts, the average household size has dropped in Bainbridge Island over the past decade. Part of this is attributable to higher vacancies due to the housing bust, and part of it is due to the low turnover of housing in some neighborhoods where residents without children have not yet moved out. County births are expected to remain relatively stable over the next decade and perhaps even trend up due to an increase of women in their child-bearing years. Births trends are part of the reason why enrollment is expected to decline less and perhaps even grow in the latter part of the decade. Population and housing growth in the next decade is predicted to be lower than it was in the past tdecade. d There is some uncertainty t regarding these estimates, t however, so low, medium, and high range estimates of population and housing growth were created to assist in creating alternative forecasts of future enrollment.. 4 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

5 Executive Summary Forecasts of enrollment for the District suggest that enrollment will range between 3504 (low) and 3977 (high) h) students by The medium range forecast predicts that there will be 3738 students by The medium range forecast is recommended at this time, though it is important that the District consider what actions might be taken if enrollment were to trend close to the low or high range forecast numbers. The medium range forecast also indicates that enrollment at grades K-4 and 5-8 will continue to decline through 2016, with very small net gains between 2016 and There is projected to be a net loss of students at the high school level over the course of the forecast. School forecasts show variation by area. The projected changes by school were based on a consideration of recent enrollment trends and projected future changes in the population by area using census data and neighborhood forecast data from the Puget Sound Regional Council. It is recommended that the forecasts in this document be updated periodically to take advantage of new demographic and enrollment information. 5 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

6 Introduction The Bainbridge Island School District is one of five school districts located in Kitsap County, just west of Seattle. Enrollment in Bainbridge Island is affected by the trends in the county as well as the more regional trends that affect all of the school districts in the Puget Sound. Enrollment in the school district trended up in the 1990 s, the result of larger birth cohorts and substantial population growth in Kitsap County and the Puget Sound. In the past decade, however, the trends have been more mixed Enrollment in Bainbridge Island did continue to grow, especially between 2000 and 2005, most likely l as a result of an increase in sales of both new and existing homes. But in the summer of 2007, the national collapse of the real estate market reached the Puget Sound. As a result, construction of new homes, and the sale of existing and new homes saw a sharp decline throughout the region. And since 2006, enrollment in the Bainbridge id Island School District i has declined. d The purpose of the present study is to examine the enrollment and demographic trends in the Bainbridge Island School District. The purpose p of this examination is to provide an update of the long range enrollment projections for the School District. As part of this process, low, medium, and high range forecasts by grade level were created for the District and for schools. 6 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

7 Introduction The forecasts in this report are based primarily on enrollment trends, births, forecasts of births, and projected changes in housing and population growth for areas in and around the school district. These forecasts rely on data from local planning agencies, like the Washington State Department of Health, which provides the birth data, the Puget Sound Regional Council and the Office of Financial Management for the State of Washington. In addition, data from the most recent Census was used to help estimate past and future growth in the population. This report is divided into distinct sections. The first section discusses the enrollment and demographic trends of the past two decades. The next sections are devoted to a discussion of key demographic indicators of future enrollment: births, population growth, including a discussion of the recent census data, and the potential for new housing within the district. Several rough estimates of future enrollment are presented in this section based on some simple back of the envelope calculations. This is done to provide some general sense of where enrollment might be headed. The final section provides a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to create the final forecasts (mostly in highlighted or bulleted form). And finally the detailed forecast numbers for the District and for schools are presented. 7 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

8 Enrollment Trends Bainbridge Island and the County As noted in the introduction, enrollment in the Bainbridge Island School District trended up in the 1990 s. This growth was driven by an increase in births as the children of baby b boomers entered the schools. It was also driven by substantial population growth in Kitsap County and the Puget Sound generally. The population of Kitsap County grew by over 40,000 residents between the 1990 and 2000 Census. Between 2000 and 2010, the population of the county grew by just over 19,000 residents. Since 1997 there have been fewer births per year in Kitsap County on an annual basis than there were between 1986 and Over a decade or more this translates into fewer K-12 children and an overall decline in the enrollment. In addition, slower population growth has contributed to this trend. The K-12 enrollment in Kitsap County (considering all districts in the county) has been declining steadily since Not all districts are the same, of course. Both Bainbridge Island and North Kitsap have seen some gains in enrollment in selected years, and both districts have increased their share of K-12 enrollment in the county, as well as their share of the general population. But nearly every district in the county has seen a decline in enrollment since Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

9 Bainbridge Island Enrollment Trend October Enrollment P223 Excludes Students Who are Enrolled ONLY in Running Start Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct01 Oct02 Oct03 Oct04 Oct05 Oct06 Oct07 Oct08 Oct09 Oct10 Oct11 9 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

10 K-12 Public School Enrollment in Kitsap County October Enrollment P Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

11 K-12 Enrollment Trends for School Districts in Kitsap County 11 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

12 Percent of County K-12 Enrollment by School District Percent of County Enrollment Year Bainbridge Island Bremerton Central Kitsap North Kitsap South Kitsap Total % 17.9% 31.1% 14.9% 28.2% 100% % 17.3% 31.4% 15.3% 28.0% 100% % 16.6% 32.1% 15.5% 27.8% 100% % 16.0% 32.8% 15.9% 27.3% 100% % 15.8% 31.8% 16.5% 27.6% 100% % 15.8% 32.1% 16.2% 27.5% 100% % 15.6% 32.1% 16.2% 27.4% 100% % 15.5% 32.1% 16.3% 27.1% 100% % 15.4% 31.7% 16.4% 27.2% 100% % 15.4% 31.6% 16.6% 27.0% 100% % 15.4% 31.6% 16.8% 26.6% 100% % 15.1% 31.7% 17.0% 26.5% 100% % 15.1% 31.5% 16.8% 26.6% 100% % 14.6% 31.4% 17.0% 26.7% 100% % 14.3% 31.4% 17.1% 26.7% 100% % 14.5% 31.2% 16.9% 26.8% 100% % 14.3% 31.0% 17.3% 26.9% 100% % 14.3% 31.0% 17.4% 26.9% 100% % 14.2% 30.7% 17.7% 27.0% 100% % 14.4% 30.7% 17.6% 26.7% 100% % 14.3% 30.9% 17.6% 26.7% 100% Change Since % -3.6% -0.2% 2.7% -1.5% Change Since % -1.1% -0.7% 1.0% -0.3% 12 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

13 Bainbridge Island Share of County K-12 Public School Enrollment (October Enrollment P223) 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 7.9% 8.5% 87% 8.7% 8.3% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.3% 9.4% 9.7% 9.7% 10.6% 10.7% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.6% 10.5% 10.0% 10.2% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

14 County Population by School District Source: U.S. Census Data Census Population Changes Change Bainbridge Island 20,308 23,025 2,717 Bremerton 44,205 44, Central Kitsap 66,434 68,814 2,380 North Kitsap 39,567 45,966 6,399 South Kitsap 61, ,017 6,862 Total 231, ,788 19,119 County Population Census* 231, ,133 19,164 Share of the Population Change Bainbridge Island 8.8% 9.2% 0.4% Bremerton 19.1% 17.9% -1.2% Central Kitsap 28.7% 27.4% -1.2% North Kitsap 17.1% 18.3% 1.2% South Kitsap 26.4% 27.1% 0.7% *Discrepancy in totals can occur because the school district totals are based on Census Block aggregations g which may not correspond exactly to the Census blocks used to calculate the county population 14 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

15 4,000 3,000 Kitsap County Births Source: Washington State Health Department Next year s kindergarten cohort 3,568 3,484 3,413 3,323 3,307 3,269 3,252 3,085 3,101 3,108 3,004 2,789 2,808 2,854 2,893 2,946 2,942 3, , ,000 1, Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

16 Kitsap County Population Estimates Source: OFM State of Washington 300, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 100, % 2.9% 2.1% 2.8% % 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% % 1.4% 1.0% 50, % 04% 0.5% 0.0% Population %Change 16 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

17 Enrollment Trends Puget Sound Enrollment It is important to put the trends of the past decade into some kind of context. The trends in Kitsap County are not completely l unique. The other counties of the Puget Sound, King, Pierce, and Snohomish County also saw a decline in births, beginning in the late 1990 s and some slow down in population growth over the past decade. As a result, K-12 enrollment in the Puget Sound has been growing at a much slower pace in the past decade than in the previous decade. d In addition, i the period between 2006 and 2007 stands out. Similar to other parts of the country, the Puget Sound region experienced a housing boom, and even a housing bubble between 1998 and In the summer of 2007, the construction of new homes and the sale of new and existing homes began to decline dramatically, resulting in a net loss of K-12 students t between 2006 and 2007 for the four county region. And since 2007, enrollment trends have changed. Most of the growth in K-12 enrollment in the Puget Sound region since 2007 has been concentrated in a few select districts that are either major employment centers, or are close to major job centers. These include Seattle, Bellevue, Lake Washington, Issaquah, and Renton. Unlike the previous two decades, there has been less growth in outlying suburban areas, as fewer people move out to buy houses in these areas. As a result, some districts that saw substantial growth in the 1990 s and the early part of the last decade, are seeing declines in enrollment or, at the very least, much slower growth since Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

18 Net Change in Public School Enrollment: King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Kitsap Combined (Over Hlf Half a Million Public Sh Schools Students t in the Four Counties) P223 Reported OCTOBER Enrollment Numbers are Updated and Changed Periodically; The Trend is More RELEVANT than the Specific Numbers Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

19 Kitsap County Trends The Future In Kitsap County specifically, the construction of new homes, and the sale of both new and existing i homes trended d up between 1998 and But beginning i in 2006, and especially since 2007 the market for new homes and even the sale of existing homes has declined rapidly. This may well explain some of the trends in Bainbridge Island. When the real estate market was strong, in the first part of the decade, enrollment in Bainbridge Island bucked the trends throughout h the county. Central Kitsap, South Kitsap, and Bremerton have all experienced declining enrollment since North Kitsap and Bainbridge Island, on the other hand, saw gains in enrollment between 2002 and But both districts have seen a distinct decline in enrollment since So what is likely in the future? Predictions from the State have suggested that there could be another marked increase in K-12 enrollment between 2015 and 2025 as the grandchildren of baby boomers reach school age. Births in King, Pierce, and Snohomish County have been trending up since 2006 and all indications are that births in the next decade will, at the very least, be greater than they were in the previous decade. The same may also be true in Kitsap County. But the most recent birth data in the county does NOT show the same trend we have seen in other areas of the Puget Sound. 19 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

20 Kitsap County Trends The Future There are also indications that population and housing growth in the next decade could be lower than the trends of the previous decade d throughout h most of the Puget Sound. Should this happen, it is likely that K-12 enrollment, while growing some due to an increase in births, may not grow as much as anticipated in the most recent State forecasts. There is, however, uncertainty about these matters. It is likely that the housing market will eventually recover and it is possible that economic growth in the region will create greater gains in the population than expected. The next section of this report provides a more detailed look at grade level trends within Bainbridge Island. Following this section there is a discussion of birth trends and a forecasts of births, along with forecasts of population and housing growth within the Bainbridge Island School District using Census and other data. This information is then used to create enrollment forecasts by ygrade level for the District and the schools. 20 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

21 Net New Housing Units by County ( ) Net New Housing Units Added by County ( ) (Puget Sound Regional Council Data) (New minus Demolitions= Net Units) Note: Data for some years is incomplete; the trend is more relevant than the specific numbers * 2010* King County ,282 Kitsap County Pierce County ,750 Snohomish hcounty , Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

22 22 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

23 New and Existing Home Sales: County Assessor s Data Downloaded from the Kitsap County Assessor s Web Site. County Assessors Data: New and Existing Home Sales by Neighborhood and Year (Neighborhoods are Defined by the Assessor's Office and are Used "AS IS" without further specification) Neighborhood Bainbridge Hidden Cove WF Bainbridge Is. Condos Bainbridge Northeast WF Bainbridge South WF Bainbridge Southeast WF Bainbridge West WF Bainbridge Wingpoint WF North Bainbridge Island South Bainbridge Island Winslow Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

24 Grade Level Enrollment Trends Bainbridge Island School District Before looking at future demographic trends it is helpful to consider what we can learn from the consideration of the District grade level trends. Over the course of a year, many families with children will move out of a school district and other families will move in. By comparing the enrollment at a specific grade in a given year to enrollment at the prior grade in the previous year, we can get some idea of the net effect of in and out movement. One way to do this is to calculate cohort survival ratios. To do this we multiply the enrollment at a specific grade in a specific year (say first grade) by the enrollment at the previous grade for the previous year (kindergarten). A ratio greater than one indicates a net gain due to migration (more families moving in over the course of the year than moving out). A ratio of less than one indicates a net loss due to migration. The table on page 27 shows the ratios for each grade level in the district. Kindergarten is not considered d in this table since it is an entry grade, and is most likely l to be affected by birth trends; the next section considers the effects of births on kindergarten. 24 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

25 Grade Level Enrollment Trends Bainbridge Island School District Looking at the other grade levels we can note several distinct trends. First, the District sees a net gain in students at the elementary and junior high level, (more families with children moving in over the course of a year than out). This is also true at the 9 th and 10 th grade of high school (though the 10 th grade is less consistent in this regard). At the 11 th and 12 th grade the district typically sees a net loss of students, most likely due to dropouts, and/or due to students exiting to attend running start, virtual schools, or technical college courses full time. These trends are relatively consistent from year to year, though it is clear that in recent years the net gains at some of the elementary grades have declined some, correlating with the overall decline in enrollment. In the forecast section of this report these grade level trends are used to project enrollment forward. Once that is done the numbers are adjusted for future changes in births, population growth, and dhousing. The next section considers each of these areas in more detail. 25 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

26 Bainbridge Island Enrollment History Birth History Birth Year Cnty Births 2,789 2,808 2,854 3,085 3,413 3,484 3,568 3,101 3,323 3,307 3,269 3,252 3,004 2,893 3,108 2,946 2,942 3, ,040 Birth-to-k ratio 7.5% 7.9% 7.9% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7% 5.9% 8.0% 6.8% 6.0% 7.5% 6.1% 7.2% 7.5% 7.1% 7.8% 7.5% 8.0% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% Enrollment History (P223 State Reported Enrollment -- Does NOT include students who are ONLY enrolled in Running Start) Grd Oct_91 Oct_92 Oct_93 Oct_94 Oct_95 Oct_96 Oct_97 Oct_98 Oct_99 Oct_00 Oct_01 Oct_02 Oct_03 Oct_04 Oct_05 Oct_06 Oct_07 Oct_08 Oct_09 Oct_10 Oct_11 K Change % Change 3.6% 1.6% 3.5% 4.4% 5.1% 2.6% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 2.9% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 2.4% -1.2% -2.9% -1.7% -1.1% -0.5% -1.6% K Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

27 Grade-to-Grade Growth Trends for the District K Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

28 Births and Birth Forecasts Births in the county trended up in the 1990 s as the children of baby boomers entered the schools. This trend, along with population gains in the county led to increasing K-12 enrollment countywide between 1991 and Since that time county births have declined but have remained relatively stable over the past decade, just above, or just below 3000 in a given year. This relatively flat trend is in contrast to the trend that was seen between 2006 and 2009 in the other three counties of the Puget Sound. King, Pierce and Snohomish County all saw a marked increase in births during this time period, and those cohorts are reaching school age over the next few years. In Kitsap County the average number of annual births between 2006 and 2009 was 2,973, about the same as the average between 2002 and 2005 (2,967). This relatively flat birth trend suggests that overall kindergarten enrollment will remain stable countywide. It is unlikely to grow much over the next five years, unless there is a marked increase in the overall population. It is also possible that births could decline some if population growth in the county were to be slower than the trends of the past decade. The county birth forecasts used in this report assume that the birth rate in the county will remain at about 12 births per 1000 residents between 2011 and The average rate of the past five years is This rate is slightly lower than the rate of 12 to 13 per 1000 residents that was seen between 2000 and It is possible that births could increase by more per year between 2012 and 2016 as the number of women between the ages 28 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

29 Births and Birth Forecasts of increases (see the Census data in the next section). Should this happen, kindergarten and elementary enrollment could be greater than expected throughout the county. But for now, the birth forecasts used in this report were deemed reasonable, especially in light of the trends of recent years, when births in Kitsap County have been lower than the trends in the other Puget Sound counties. The forecasts in this report assume that the district will enroll 7% (low) to 7.6% (high) of the county births from five years prior to each enrollment year. This birth-to-k t ratio is based on the average of the past ten years (comparing kindergarten enrollment in a given year to the county births five years prior to each year). Over the past decade the district has seen fluctuations in its share of the county birth cohort, most likely in response to home sale trends within the district. i t It is clear, however, that t the overall trend in the county has shifted down over the past two decades. In 1991, kindergarten enrollment across the county was 109% of the births (comparing kindergarten enrollment in all districts in 1991 to births in 1986). In the most recent year, 2011, kindergarten enrollment in the county was 87% of the birth cohort (comparing enrollment in October 2011 to county births from 2006). This suggests that out-migration of families with preschool age children is now higher than in-migration for the county as a whole. Put another way, more families are leaving prior to their children reaching school age. For now it is expected that this trend will continue, though Bainbridge Island is expected to retain a fairly stable portion of the birth cohort. 29 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

30 Kitsap County Birth Forecasts Forecast of Births Using the Medium Range Population Forecast from the Office of Financial Management and an Assumption of 12 births per 1000 residents 4,000 Actual Births Next year s cohort Forecast ,000 2,000 1, Births 3,108 2,946 2,942 3, , Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

31 Bainbridge Island KE Enrollment as a % of fcounty Births Bith % of Birth Cohort in a Given Year Enrolled in Kindergarten 5 Years Later 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, , Birth Cohort would enter kindergarten in 1991 (5 years after the birth year) 7.9%7.9% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.5% 5.9% 8.0% 6.8% 6.0% 8.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 6.9% 6.1% Next year s cohort % 9.75% 9.50% 9.25% 9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 800% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.25% 6.00% 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 500% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 200% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00% Kitsap County Births Bainbridge Island % of Birth Cohort (5 Years Later) 31 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

32 Population and Population Forecasts Population growth in Bainbridge Island and the county has been slower in the past decade than it was in the previous decade. This, along with the birth trends, has had a noticeable effect on enrollment. The population within the district grew by 2.8% annually between the 1990 and 2000 Census resulting in a gain of 4,459 residents. Between the 2000 and 2010 Census the annual growth rate was 1.3% with a gain of 2,720 residents. Looking forward, the best estimates at this time suggest that population growth in the next decade will be lower than it was in the past decade. The chart on page 33 shows the historical population totals for the District and two forecasts of the population in The first forecast is based on an analysis of Census data for the district over the past two census periods ( and ) 2010) looking at changes in age-groups over time. The second forecast comes from the Puget Sound Regional Council and is based on their forecasts for the various neighborhoods in and around the District. The similarity of these two estimates provides some confidence that we have a reasonable sense of where population is headed. But this does not eliminate all the uncertainty. The housing market or even the economy could pick up some, resulting in greater growth than expected. For this reason, alternative forecasts of future population growth were created based on some different assumptions about the amount of housing and population p growth that might occur in the district. These alternatives are discussed on the following pages. 32 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

33 Bainbridge Island District Population and Forecast The medium range forecast is based on the most recent census populations by 5-year age groups and changes from one census period to the next. The PSRC forecast is based on the aggregate forecast for the various neighborhoods in the District boundary area. 30, % 9.5% Forecasts 9.0% 25, % 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 20,000 65% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 15, % 4.5% 4.0% 10, % 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 5, % 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0 0.0% PSRC Forecast for Census 1990 Census 2000 Census (Medium) 2020 Population 15,846 20,308 23,025 25,209 25,073 Average Annual Growth Rates (Decade to Decade) 2.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 33 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

34 Population and Population Forecasts Before we look at alternative population forecasts, it is worth looking at the population forecast based on Census data in more detail. The table on page 35 shows the population forecast for the district based on the Census data for 5-year age groups within the District. The data indicate that population in the next decade will grow at an annual rate that is.4% less than the annual rate of the past decade. In addition, there is a marked increase in the population that is over 60, and a modest increase in the number of residents that are The latter group would include females in their child-bearing years, providing some hope that births could trend up more than expected. This is also an age group that is more likely to already have young children. But it is also striking that for many of the age groups in the analysis there is predicted to be a net decline between 2010 and This is based on a fairly simple methodology, which looks at the changes in age groups over the past two census periods. But if this forecast pans out, the population within the district is likely to be substantially older in 2020 than it was in On the other hand, these trends could also be the precursor for additional growth in enrollment in the latter part of the decade and out to If the older residents are currently occupying single family homes, or residences that are of interest to families with children, the aging of this population will eventually result in housing turnover that could result in greater K-12 enrollment growth between 2020 and Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

35 Projected Population for the Bainbridge Island School District Using Census Data Bainbridge Island School District Rates of Change Average of Projected Changes and Male Females Totals Male Rates Female Rates Project 2020 Change fr Wght Avg Wght Avg Males Females Total Age Group to 4 yrs ,030 1, to 4 yrs 65 5 to 9 Yrs ,359 1,450 1, ,340 5 to 9 Yrs yrs ,108 1,930 1, , yrs yrs ,390 1, , yrs , , ,754 1,340 1, , , , ,873 2,085 1, , , ,200 1,056 1,235 2,250 1, , ,040 1, ,125 1, ,165 2, ,084 1, , , ,330 2, ,075 2, , , , ,109 1,207 2, , ,067 1,227 2, ,055 2, , , and ove and over 41 7,728 9,835 11,127 8,118 10,460 11,898 15,846 20,305 23,025 12,124 13,085 25,209 Change 4,459 2,720 Change 2,184 Percent Change 28% 13.4% Percent Change 9.5% Annual Percent Change 2.8% 1.3% Annual Percent Change 0.9% Averages Male Female C/W % 15.6% 15.3% 14.1% 13.7% 13.8% 15.4% 13.8% C/W % 19.7% 23.0% 18.0% 16.3% 21.5% 21.3% 18.9% 35 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

36 Census Forecast Finally, the analysis of age groups trends in the census data allows us to make some ballpark estimates of the K-12 enrollment in The table on page 37 shows these estimates. Our primary forecast of the population shows 25,209 residents in And using the age 5-19 population as a proxy for K-12 (K-12 is generally 75% to 85% of the age 5-19 population) we would predict that the K-12 enrollment in Bainbridge Island in 2020 would be 3,755. The table also shows low and high forecasts of the population and accompanying estimates of the K-12 population. The high population forecast assumes that the population will grow at the same annual rate as it did in the previous decade resulting in a population of 26,109 residents and a K-12 enrollment of 3,998 students. The low forecast assumes that the population will grow by about.9% less on annual basis in the next decade than in the previous decade. This results in a population estimate of 24,381 residents in 2020 with a K-12 population of 3,539. The population estimates developed here mesh well with the housing estimates provided in the next section. And they provide a way to make ballpark estimates of the K-12 population in The low, medium, and high range forecasts presented at the end of this report are close to, but different from, the estimates presented here. This is not surprising since the final forecasts consider grade level trends, including the size of incoming kindergarten classes and existing 12 th grade classes each year, births, and the potential effect of housing and population growth on enrollment at each grade. In spite of these differences, the final forecasts should trend close to the estimates developed here since the numbers by grade level are adjusted for the amount of population and housing growth in the low, medium, and high population estimates. 36 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

37 Projected K-12 Population in the Bainbridge Island School District Using Census Data ( Ballpark Estimates ) These estimates are rough approximations of enrollment in The final forecast numbers will differ from these because they include consideration of grade-to-grade g enrollment trends, births and the expected size of the entering kindergarten and exiting 12 th grade for each year. The numbers in the final forecast models, however, (Low, Medium, and High) should be reasonably CLOSE to the estimates listed below. Forecast 1* Forecast 2** Forecast 3*** Total Population 15,846 20,305 23,025 25,209 24,381 26,109 Population Change 4,459 2,720 2,184 1,356 3,084 % % 23.5% 21.5% 18.6% 18.6% 18.6% Age , , ,943 4, , ,856 Bainbridge Island Public Schools K 12 3,927 3,858 3,755 3,539 3,998 Public k 12 % of Age % 78.0% 80.2% 78.0% 82.3% *Forecast 1 is based on the trends of the past 2 decades( , ) 2010) **Forecast 2 is based on the trends from the most recent decade only ( ) ***Forecast 3 is a total number which assumes a similar annual growth rate as the past decade; the K 12 number is assumed to be the same percentage of the population as is in the Low and Medium Forecasts. 37 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

38 Housing and Housing Forecasts Bainbridge Island was the only district in the county, other than Bremerton, that saw more new housing growth in the past decade than in the previous decade. According to census data the district added 2,069 housing units between 2000 and 2010, compared to 1,899 that were added between 1990 and 2000 (Page 39). It is reasonable to assume that the increase in new housing stock, along with sales of new and existing homes contributed to the increase in enrollment that occurred between 2000 and And it is also reasonable to assume that the decline in sales of new and existing homes is a strong reason why enrollment has been trending down since Looking forward the best estimates at this time suggest that the number of new homes built in the next decade will be lower than the trends of the past decade. According to the New Home Trends database there are just over 600 new housing units (both single family and multi-family) that are either currently for sale, or proposed for future construction and sale, within the district boundary area (Page 40). Even if the District were to see 50 students for every 100 new homes that are built, this total would result in a net gain of 300 students. Given the net loss of students at some grades, the size of graduating classes in a given year, the fact that some of the new homes will likely have little impact on student growth (e.g., some high end condo developments tend to generate very few new students) and the fact that some projects may be delayed or even withdrawn, it is likely that the impact on enrollment from new home sales and construction will be less in the next decade than it was in the past decade. 38 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

39 Net Housing Units Added by School District 8, and Source: Census Data 7,000 6,394 6,000 5,324 5,000 4,000 3,609 4, ,022 4,391 3, ,000 1,899 2,069 1, Bainbridge Island Bremerton Central Kitsap NorthKitsap South Kitsap , ,394 4,405 5, , ,609 4,022 4, Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

40 Number of New Construction Homes for Sale or Planned for the Future Bainbridge Island School District New Home Trends Database For Sale Feb Proposed Feb 2012 Single Family Multi-Family Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

41 Housing and Housing Forecasts It is possible, of course, that additional projects will be proposed in the coming years and that new home sales and construction will be greater than anticipated. For this reason it is useful to have some alternative estimates of housing and population growth that can account for the uncertainty we encounter when predicting the future. In the previous section we developed a main population forecast for 2020 along with low and high alternatives that assumed lower and higher growth than was expected in the main population forecast. If we combine these estimates with different housing estimates, we can lay out three alternatives for future growth. The chart on page 44 shows these estimates. The medium range estimate includes our most plausible forecast of the future population of the district. This is the population forecast from census data that aligns well with the population forecast from the Puget Sound Regional Council. It assumes that the average household size (the average number of residents per house) will be about the same in 2020 as it was in the 2010 Census (2.18). It is also worth noting that the average household size has dropped rather dramatically from the 2000 Census (2.38). Some of this may be attributable to higher vacancy rates. About 10.5% of the houses in the 2010 Census are listed as vacant, compared to 6.3% in the 2000 Census. But lower average household size is a trend that is present in many other districts as well, and generally indicates that some neighborhoods are not turning over as fast as they once did. As students graduate from school, households get smaller, and if the parents of these children stay put, there is less opportunity for other parents with children to move into the district. 41 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

42 Housing and Housing Forecasts If we take the average household size of 2.18 (which include vacant homes) and the population forecasts from the previous section we can come up with some forecasts of future housing growth that are lower and higher than the estimates in the medium range model. The table on page 44 summarizes the three models succinctly. It shows some reasonable forecasts of future housing and population growth, given recent trends and the best information available at this time. In the forecasts on the following pages, enrollment was projected based on county births (from ) and projected county births ( ), birth-to-k ratios (which predict what percentage of the birth cohort from a given year will enroll in kindergarten five years later) and enrollment trends by grade level (discussed in the enrollment section). Once the initial projection was completed the numbers by grade level were then adjusted for projected changes in housing and population growth over time (presented here). The specific assumptions for the low, medium, and high range forecast models are discussed in the next section. 42 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

43 Bainbridge Island School District Housing Growth Estimates Housing Units Net Change 20,000 19,000 18,000 Projections for ,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,584 11,184 11,584 11,984 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,616 8,515 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,899 2, ,000 1,400 0 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Low Medium High 43 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

44 Population and Housing Forecasts for the Low, Medium and High Enrollment Projections (Population and Housing estimates suggest that the average household size in 2020 will be about 2.18 persons per housing unit the same as the 2010 Census; this number could shift slightly higher or lower depending on the number of births over the next decade) Projections for , ,000 20,000 20,308 23,025 24,381 25,209 26, ,000 10,000 8,515 10,584 11,184 11,584 11, , Census 2000 Census 2010 Low Medium High Housing Units 8,515 10,584 11,184 11,584 11,984 Population 20,308 23,025 24,381 25,209 26,109 Average HH Size Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

45 Forecasts

46 Forecast Assumptions The initial year of the forecast (2012) is based on a 3-year weighted average of the most recent grade to grade trends, including the most recent birth-to-k ratios (Kindergarten enrollment in a given year compared to county births five years prior to that enrollment year). Subsequent years are based on the average grade-to-grade trends of the past 10 years which encompasses both low and high growth years, adjusted for projected changes in housing and population growth discussed in the previous sections of this report. 46 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

47 Low Forecast Forecast Assumptions Continued Birth-to-K Ratio is assumed to be 7%. Annual population growth is assumed to be.9% less per year in the next decade than in the previous decade. About 600 new housing units will be added in the next decade. Medium Forecast Birth-to-K ratio of 7.3%. Annual population growth this assumed dto be.4% 4%less in the next tdecade d than in the previous decade. About 1000 new housing units will be added in the next decade. High Forecast Birth-to-K ratio is assumed to be 7.6%. Annual population growth is assumed to be about the same as this past decade (1.3%). About 1400 new housing units will be added in the next decade. 47 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

48 Forecasts The medium range forecast is the recommended forecast over the course of the forecast period ( ). In the near term, given recent trends, the low forecast should be considered as a plausible scenario. The high forecast is somewhat optimistic at this point in time, but it does recognize that demographic conditions can change. In addition, it is not unreasonable to assume that new housing construction and sales will pick up in the future, especially in that latter part of the decade. The medium recommended forecast shows enrollment continuing to decline over the next decade. The decline is projected to be larger over the next few years, with smaller net losses in subsequent years. The medium range forecast also predicts that enrollment at grades K-4 and 5-8 will continue to decline through 2016 with very small net gains between 2016 and There is projected be a net loss of students at the high school level over the course of the forecast period. The low and high range forecasts show what might happen if population and housing growth in the next decade were to be lower or higher than the estimates that are assumed in the medium range model. Given the uncertainty of predicting future enrollment, the District should consider what steps might be taken if enrollment were to trend closer to the low or high projection model. In addition, the District should periodically update this forecast to take account of new enrollment and demographic information. 48 Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

49 Low, Medium and High District Forecasts Forecast Oct_06 Oct_07 Oct_08 Oct_09 Oct_10 Oct_11 Oct_12 Oct_13 Oct_14 Oct_15 Oct_16 Oct_17 Oct_18 Oct_19 Oct_20 Oct 21 Low Forecast Medium Grow th Forecast High Forecast Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections

50 Projected Change by Level: (From October 2011 to October 2021) Low, Medium, and High Low Forecast Medium Forecast High Forecast K Bainbridge Island Trends and Projections