Mercer Island School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections

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1 Mercer Island School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections Prepared by William L. ( Les ) Kendrick Ph.D. Educational Data Solutions, LLC March 217

2 District Enrollment Trend P223 Enrollment (October) Does Not Include Full-Time Running Start Students or Students Enrolled in Open Doors 5, 4, 4, ,28 4,31 4,18 4,133 4,14 4,131 4,13 4,48 4,4 4,58 4,83 4,177 4,243 4,27 4,3 4,354 4,373 4,49 3, 2, 1, Trends and Projections Mar 217

3 King County Public Schools Enrollment Trend and Mercer Island Market Share , , , ,87 256,73 258, , ,26 27, , , ,161 5.% 4.% 2 3.% % 1.67% 1.65% 1.65% 1.64% 1.61% 1.59% 1.56% 1.58% 1.63% 1.61% 1.62% 1.6% 1.58% 1.58% 1.57% 1.56% 2.% 1.% % Enrollment Mercer Island Market Share 3 Trends and Projections Mar 217

4 Public and Private School Enrollment King County (K-12 Only) Source: P223 and P15 Report --State of Washington Headcount ,837 35,24 34,49 32,245 33,188 34,275 35, ,282 36,452 36,715 37,22 36,375 36,428 Private Schools Enroll Between 11 % and 12% of KC school-age children ,628255, , ,87 256,99258, , ,26 27, , , ,161 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Private Schools Public Schools 4 Trends and Projections Mar 217

5 Enrollment for Private Schools Located in Mercer Island s Service Area K Total Trends and Projections Mar 217

6 Enrollment Patterns Mercer Island School District

7 Mercer Island K Enrollment as a Percent of City Births % 22% 147% 186% 174% 151% 168% 192% 169% 167% Mercer Island Births (5 years prior) Mercer Island K Pct of Cohort 7 Trends and Projections Mar 217

8 Average Grade Progression Rates (3, 5, and 1 Year Averages) Cohort Ratio Averages for the Mercer Island School District 8 Trends and Projections Mar 217

9 Demographic Trends

10 Average Annual Births by County Source: State of Washington Department of Health Birth Files 3, 25, 2, 22,173 24,899 15, 1, 1,16 11,322 8,466 9,352 5, 3,34 2,973 King County Kitsap County Pierce County Snohomish County Avg. Annual Births Avg. Annual Births Trends and Projections Mar 217

11 King County Births Source: Washington State Health Department ,573 21,646 22,212 22,7 22,487 21,778 21,863 22,431 22,874 22,68 Next year s cohort 24,244 24,899 25,19 25,57 24,514 24,63 25,32 24,91 25,343 25, Trends and Projections Mar 217

12 King County School Districts Change in Enrollment Oct 21 to Oct 216 LAST SIX YEARS Numbers may have changed since the original reporting of the data Net Gain of 24,373 Students in King County: % 4% 3% 2% % % % % -3% -4% % Seattle Lake Washington Issaquah Bellevue Northshore Renton Auburn Highline Snoqualmie Valley Tahoma Shoreline Charter Schools Federal Way Mercer Island Vashon Island Riverview Skykomish Tukwila Kent Technical College Enumclaw Change 21 to 216 Percent Change 12 Trends and Projections Mar 217

13 King County Birth Projections (Based on the Average of 214 and 215 Fertility Rates and Projected Growth in Females in Their Child-Bearing Years Using the OFM Medium Range Population Forecast) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Actual Birth Cohorts (in yellow) eligible for school between Projections Projected cohorts for 221 to 226 Enrollment Trends and Projections Mar 217

14 Population Growth and Projections King County Source: Office of Financial Management of the State of Washington 3,, 2,5, OFM Estimates Projections 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Census King County 1,931,249 1,942,6 1,957, 1,981,9 2,17,25 2,52,8 2,15,1 2,18,814 2,196,22 14 Trends and Projections Mar 217

15 Mercer Island Population Census and State Estimates 3, 5.% 4.5% 25, 4.% 2, 3.5% 3.% 15, 2.5% 2.% 1, 1.5% 5, 1.%.5% Census Population 22,699 22,71 22,69 22,72 23,31 23,48 23,66 % of County Population 1.18% 1.17% 1.16% 1.15% 1.16% 1.14% 1.12%.% 15 Trends and Projections Mar 217

16 Mercer Island Resident Population Forecasts Alternative Forecasts Based on Different Assumptions About Growth. The PSRC Land Use Forecast is Roughly Based on Current Land Use Trends* The PSRC Land Vision Forecast Assumes Greater Density and More Housing The Medium Range Alternative Lies In-Between the Low and High PSRC Alternatives 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, Census State Estimate 22 Forecast 225 Forecast Based off of PSRC Land Use Baseline 22,699 23,66 24,991 25,116 Medium Range Alternative 22,699 23,66 25,165 25,893 Based off PSRC Land Vision Forecast 22,699 23,66 25,339 26,669 *The PSRC Land Use Baseline forecast is similar to the Mercer Island City Comprehensive Plan Assumptions. 16 Trends and Projections Mar 217

17 Single Family and Condo Home Sales Mercer Island 17 Trends and Projections Mar 217

18 Housing Units in Mercer Island Total and Occupied K-12 Public School Students Per House 15, 1 1, 8,85 8,435 9,93 9,19 1,48 9, , 2 21 Estim. 216 Total Houses Occupied Units Students Per Occupied Unit 18 Trends and Projections Mar 217

19 Future Housing Forecasts Number of Occupied Units Based off of PRSC Land Use Baseline and Land Vision Forecasts and a Medium Alternative 15, 1, 9,19 9,653 9,916 1,179 1,23 9,693 1,82 5, 21 Census PSRC Land Use (Low) Medium Range Forecast PSRC Land-Vision (High) 19 Trends and Projections Mar 217

20 K-12 Public School Students Per House (King County Districts) Census 21 Census Estimated Estimated P223 Oct Total 21 K-12 Students K-12 Students School District 21 Enroll Housing Units Occupied Units Per 1 Homes Per 1 Occupied Tahoma 7,394 13,835 13, Snoqualmie Valley 6,19 13,693 12, Auburn 14,343 32,762 3, Kent 26,63 6,1 56, Issaquah 16,881 38,765 36, Federal Way 21,724 5,518 47, Mercer Island 4,177 9,93 9, Enumclaw 4,472 1,516 9, Riverview 3,152 7,47 7, Tukwila 2,98 7,353 6, Northshore 19,39 49,81 46, Highline 18,11 5,913 47, Bellevue 18,8 56,376 5, Lake Washington 24,592 76,389 71, Shoreline 8,88 28,28 26, Vashon Island 1,421 5,552 4, Renton 13,558 48,991 45, Seattle 46,794 38, , Skykomish *Note: The number of K-12 students per house is estimated using Census housing counts and the October 21 P223 enrollment. 2 Trends and Projections Mar 217

21 Enrollment Projections

22 Forecast of the King County K-12 Popula9on Using Cohort Survival, Actual Births, Birth Forecasts and Projected Changes in Popula;on Growth During Certain Time Periods 35, 3, 25, 249, , ,161 31,85 312,573 2, 15, 1, 5, 2 (P223) 21 (P223) 216 (P223) Trends and Projections Mar 217

23 Forecast Estimates Using a Variety of Methods Cohort Forecasts* Year Avg. Cohort 4,49 4,452 4,473 4,456 4,471 4,474 4,447 4,439 4,432 4,43 4,399 5 Year Avg. Cohort 4,49 4,475 4,518 4,519 4,557 4,581 4,572 4,586 4,597 4,588 4,598 1 Year Avg. Cohort 4,49 4,494 4,548 4,554 4,599 4,634 4,628 4,647 4,669 4,675 4,696 Linear Models (Based on Total Enrollment Only -- 1 Year History) County Births and MI Pop (Low) 4,49 4,47 4,59 4,565 4,647 4,649 4,657 4,666 4,676 4,688 4,71 County Births and MI Pop (High) 4,49 4,483 4,521 4,578 4,697 4,733 4,776 4,819 4,864 4,91 4,957 Students Per House Forecast (Based on Alternative Pop/Housing Forecasts Student Per House Low Growth 4,49 4,416 4,422 4,428 4,433 4,437 4,441 4,444 4,448 4,452 4,455 Student Per House Medium Growth 4,49 4,447 4,484 4,522 4,559 4,586 4,612 4,638 4,665 4,691 4,718 Student Per House High Growth 4,49 4,477 4,545 4,612 4,68 4,729 4,778 4,828 4,877 4,926 4,975 Average of all Forecasts 4,464 4,53 4,529 4,58 4,63 4,614 4,633 4,653 4,667 4,687 *Kindergarten enrollment in the cohort forecasts is based on the District's average share of the County birth cohort (K enrollment compared to births) for the past three, six, and ten years, multiplied by actual and projected birth cohorts expected to enroll between 217 and Trends and Projections Mar 217

24 Mercer Island District Forecast Alternative Forecasts Based on Grade Level Trends and Alternative Projections of Population and Housing 5, 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4, Low 4,371 4,49 4, Medium (Recommended) 4,371 4,49 4, High Range Forecast 4,371 4,49 4, Trends and Projections Mar 217

25 Mercer Island (October Headcount Enrollment) Births Mercer Island Births King County Births , , ,63 K Enroll as % of Cnty 1.2% 1.11% 1.5% 1.5%.95% 1.11% 1.14% 1.6% 1.13% 1.% 1.17% 1.2% 1.6% 1.%.98%.95%.98% K Enroll as a % of City 186% 184% 136% 171% 172% 161% 188% 155% 22% 147% 186% 174% 151% 168% 192% 169% 167% City % of County Cohort.64%.6%.77%.61%.55%.69%.61%.69%.56%.68%.63%.59%.7%.6%.51%.56%.59% K Tot 4,31 4,18 4,133 4,14 4,131 4,13 4,48 4,4 4,58 4,83 4,177 4,243 4,27 4,284 4,358 4,371 4,49 Grow th Percent 2.2% -2.8% -1.1%.2% -.2% -.7% -1.3% -1.1% 1.3%.6% 2.3% 1.6%.6%.3% 1.7%.3%.9% King County Public Schools K ,319 25,14 249,971 25, , , , , , , , , ,26 27, , , ,161 Mercer Island Market Share 1.73% 1.67% 1.65% 1.65% 1.64% 1.61% 1.59% 1.58% 1.6% 1.59% 1.61% 1.62% 1.6% 1.58% 1.58% 1.57% 1.56% 25 Trends and Projections Mar 217

26 Low Range Forecast (Growth Rates Based off of the Low Range Pop/Housing Forecast) Projected Births year Trends at Kindergarten City Births Median SD+1 SD-1 Cnty Births 25,32 24,91 25,348 25,487 25,456 25,519 25,593 25,679 25,79 25,911 % County 1.% 1.4%.96% % County.98% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%.99%.99%.99%.99%.99%.99% % City 17% 183% 157% % City 154% 154% 154% 153% 153% 152% 152% 151% 151% 15% City % of County.62%.69%.56% Rollup Ratio Adjusted for Future Pop/Housing Growth Projections Used Priv. Schls % K Tot 4, Change Percent.4%.3% -.5%.3%.3% -.3%.1%.1% -.3%.2% K Projection King County K-12 KC K , , ,628 31,85 34,522 37,537 31,16 311,9 312, ,981 Market share 1.54% 1.52% 1.49% 1.47% 1.46% 1.44% 1.43% 1.42% 1.42% 1.42% 26 Trends and Projections Mar 217

27 Medium Range Forecast (Growth Rates Based off of the Medium Range Pop/Housing Forecast) Projected Births year Trends at Kindergarten City Births Median SD+1 SD-1 Cnty Births 25,32 24,91 25,348 25,487 25,456 25,519 25,593 25,679 25,79 25,911 % County 1.% 1.4%.96% % County.99% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% % City 17% 183% 157% % City 154% 154% 154% 153% 153% 152% 152% 151% 151% 15% City % of County.62%.69%.56% Rollup Ratio Adjusted for Future Pop/Housing Growth Projections Used Priv. Schls % K Tot 4, Change Percent 1.1% 1.%.2%.9%.9%.2%.6%.6%.1%.5% K Projection King County K-12 KC K , , ,628 31,85 34,522 37,537 31,16 311,9 312, ,981 Market share 1.55% 1.54% 1.52% 1.51% 1.51% 1.5% 1.49% 1.49% 1.49% 1.5% 27 Trends and Projections Mar 217

28 High Range Forecast (Growth Rates Based off of the High Range Pop/Housing Forecast) Projected Births year Trends at Kindergarten City Births Median SD+1 SD-1 Cnty Births 25,32 24,91 25,348 25,487 25,456 25,519 25,593 25,679 25,79 25,911 % County 1.% 1.4%.96% % County 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% % City 17% 183% 157% % City 154% 154% 154% 153% 153% 152% 152% 151% 151% 15% City % of County.62%.69%.56% Rollup Ratio Adjusted for Future Pop/Housing Growth Projections Used Priv. Schls % K Tot 4, Change Percent 1.8% 1.7%.8% 1.6% 1.5%.7% 1.1% 1.%.4%.9% K Projection King County K-12 KC K , , ,628 31,85 34,522 37,537 31,16 311,9 312, ,981 Market share 1.56% 1.57% 1.55% 1.55% 1.56% 1.55% 1.56% 1.56% 1.57% 1.58% 28 Trends and Projections Mar 217

29 Consultant Background and Experience Dr. Kendrick was the demographer for the Seattle Public schools from 199 to In that capacity he provided enrollment projections to facilitate staffing and facilities planning and helped with the management of the student assignment system He also provided analysis of the relationship between demographics and test scores. Since 1997 he has worked as a consultant providing demographic analysis and enrollment projections for local school districts. Over the past 2 years his clients have included the following Districts: Auburn, Bainbridge Island, Bellingham, Bellevue, Bethel, Bremerton, Central Kitsap, Edmonds, Enumclaw, Federal Way, Marysville, Mercer Island, Monroe, North Kitsap, Olympia, Renton, Seattle, South Kitsap, Shoreline, Snoqualmie Valley, Sumner, and Tukwila. He also does annual enrollment projection work for the Everett, Highline, Mukilteo, Northshore, Puyallup, and Tacoma School Districts. He has worked in all four counties of the Puget Sound and is familiar with the different trends and patterns across the region.