Population Projections, South Sudan From

Transcription

1 Population Projections, South Sudan From National Bureau of Statistics October,

2 Preface There has been a lot of demand for population projection and understandably so because it is not appropriate to keep planning with one year figure. For effective managing for results, planners need to know the number of the population segments they are planning for. For that, the Bureau has produced this document. The Bureau decided to use cohort component method of population projection. This is done by single year and for the period 2008 to We have also presented the population projection by state also for the period 2008 and It is the hope of the Bureau that the public, especially the planners use this information. Isaiah Chol Aruai, Chairperson, NBS 2

3 Table of Contents Preface... 2 Table of Contents... 3 List of Tables... 4 Abbreviations and Acronyms Introduction Methodology Moving the population to mid-year The annual projections... 9 Reference

4 List of Tables Table 1: Population projections for South Sudan, Table 2: Midyear population of South Sudan, Table 3: Population projection for South Sudan, Table 4: Population projection for South Sudan Table 5: Population projection for South Sudan, Table 6: Population projection of South Sudan, Table 7: Population projection of South Sudan, Table 8: Population projection for South Sudan, Table 9: Population projection for South Sudan, Table 10: Population projections for Upper Nile, Table 11: Midyear population for Upper Nile, Table 12: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 13: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 14: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 15: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 16: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 17: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 18: Population projection for Upper Nile, Table 19: Population projection for Jonglei State, Table 20: Midyear population for Jonglei, Table 21: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 22: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 23: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 24: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 25: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 26: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 27: Population projection for Jonglei, Table 28: Population projections for Unity State, Table 29: Midyear population for Unity State, Table 30: Population projection for Unity State, Table 31: Population projection for Unity State, Table 32: Population projection for Unity State, Table 33: Population projection for Unity State, Table 34: Population projection for Unity State, Table 35: Population projection for Unity State, Table 36: Population projection for Unity State, Table 37: Population projections for Warrap State, Table 38: Midyear population for Warrap State, Table 39: Population projection for Warrap State, Table 40: Population projection for Warrap State, Table 41: Population projection for Warrap State, Table 42: Population projection for Warrap State, Table 43: Population projection for Warrap State,

5 Table 44: Population projection for Warrap State, Table 45: Population projection for Warrap State, Table 46: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 47: Midyear population for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 48: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 49: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 50: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 51: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 52: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 53: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 54: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Table 55: Population projections for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 56: Midyear population for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 57: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 58: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 59: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 60: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 61: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 62: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 63: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Table 64: Population projections for Lakes State, Table 65: Midyear population for Lakes State, Table 66: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 67: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 68: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 69: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 70: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 71: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 72: Population projection for Lakes State, Table 73: Population projections for Western Equatoria, Table 74: Midyear population for Western Equatoria, Table 75: Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 76: Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 77: Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 78: Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 79: Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 80; Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 81: Population projection for Western Equatoria, Table 82: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 83: Midyear population for Central Equatoria, Table 84: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 85: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 86: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 87: Population projection for Central Equatoria,

6 Table 88: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 89: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 90: Population projection for Central Equatoria, Table 91: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 92: Midyear population for Eastern Equatoria, Table 93: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 94: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 95: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 96: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 97: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 98: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria, Table 99: Population projection for Eastern Equatoria,

7 Abbreviations and Acronyms ASFR : specific fertility rate ASMR : specific mortality rate CPA : Comprehensive Peace Agreement IOM : International Organization for Migration NBS : National Bureau of Statistics SSHHS : South Sudan Household Health Survey SR : Sex ratio 7

8 1.0 Introduction Managing for results is an important principle and is an objective for projecting into the future. This calls for population projection to provide what changes might occur given the assumptions inherent in the projection method and the data. There are a number of techniques for population projection. The Bureau decided to use cohort component method. The method uses the components of demographic change to project the population growth. It projects the population by age and sex. Usually the projection is done by age groups and therefore, in five-year groupings. We have decided to conduct projections in single years using the Census 2008 data as base. As a result of signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January, 2005, a number of South Sudanese returned from exile as well as from the then northern Sudan. This was a one-time massive return without associated out-migration. This information was got from International Organization for Migration (IOM). The largest part of this home-coming was between 2008 and IOM had their records of returnees by county in each state. The components under consideration are births, deaths and migration. Births and mortality parameters were got from Census 2008 and SSHHS 2010 data. Projection for the years 2009 and 2010 were done using the parameters derived from Census 2008 data. Thereafter, the projections were done using parameters derived from SSHHS 2010 data. Migration data were got from IOM. These were used to move the population to midyear Thereafter, the population was closed to migration. 2.0 Methodology The projections given are midyear population distributions. The population of 2008 was moved from April, 2008 to midyear This was done by estimating number of children that would have been born in the nine weeks to midyear of 2008, the expected deaths in the nine weeks as well as the returnees who would have come in the same period. As stated earlier, the population was then closed to migration in the subsequent projections. 2.1 Moving the population to mid-year 2008 Census was conducted in April, The Census Night was 21 st /22 nd April, This gives nine weeks to middle of the year. The population in each age, was subjected to ASMR,,. These are the expected deaths in one year. To get the deaths in 9 weeks from April to end of June, we get the contribution to 9 weeks,. This number is subtracted from to leave only those who would have reached middle of the year. The births were got by multiplying women in age groups 15-19, 20-24, ---, by the ASFR for women in the age group. where i=1, 2,, 7. Where B(i) = Births in age group i W(i) = Women in age group i f(i) = specific fertility rate for women in age group i The total births is got by summing all births in the seven age groups,. This is the expected births in one year. So to get the births in the 9 weeks to middle of the year, we get what can be contributed to the population in 9 weeks,. These are broken down into males and females by using the sex ratio, SR=1.03. The results are put at age 0. 8

9 Migration data were got from IOM. These were broken down into counties and states and were given as a sum of movements from 2008 to These were reported as net movement from 2008 to To use them, we divided the total figure by 4 to distribute over the four years. This implies that some of these people came before census and therefore were enumerated during the census exercise. In all, the number for 2008 was multiplied by to get the contribution from last week of April, 2008 to middle of the year. These were broken down into males and females using sex ratio, SR=1.03. These were then distributed to ages according to the percentage distribution of Census 2008 by sex. These figures were added to the population at midyear, As already stated, component method of population projection is used in this assignment. And this is done in single years. For the total population at age x in April, 2008 with a specified age specific fertility rate and age specific mortality rates and a given volume of migration, the population at the end of June, 2008 is given by Where = Population at end of June, 2008 = Population in April, 2008 = Deaths in the nine weeks to midyear of 2008 = Birth in nine weeks to midyear of 2008 = Net migration in the nine weeks to midyear of 2008 This is done by sex. This then results to the population used in the projection as the midyear 2008 population. Because of the assumed midyear migration population, imbedded in the projection, the population is assumed closed to migration because the massive return was a one-time return. The base of the projection is the population enumerated in April, That time, the male population was higher than the female population. The reason for this was many families had their families outside of South Sudan. This is the reason why males are higher than females. But we also note that the sex ratio for the then Sudan was estimated above 101 (UN, 2006). 2.2 The annual projections Component method of population projection is used in this assignment. And this is done in single years. For the total population with a specified age specific fertility rate and age specific mortality rates, the population at time t+1 is given by Where = Population one year from base = The base population = Deaths in the year = Births in one year The component method, therefore, removes the expected number of people who should have died as they move to the next age. It adds by sex the new born at age 0. 9

10 Table 1: Population projections for South Sudan, Year Males Females Total t r 100r ,340,674 4,027,014 8,367, ,495,511 4,189,452 8,684, ,652,459 4,352,803 9,005, ,844,597 4,544,780 9,389, ,041,284 4,741,642 9,782, ,240,881 4,941,410 10,182, ,442,151 5,142,892 10,585, ,649,689 5,350,439 11,000, Average annual growth rate,

11 Table 2: Midyear population of South Sudan, , ,519 1,378, , ,959 1,305, , ,735 1,063, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,198 92, , ,030 54, , ,318 51, , ,415 31,711 73, ,632 24,438 59, ,240 11,398 28, ,043 10,035 24, ,507 4,122 10, ,250 2,746 6, ,580 2,841 6,422 Total 4,340,674 4,027,014 8,367,688 Table 3: Population projection for South Sudan, , ,363 1,453, , ,681 1,382, , ,721 1,093, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,481 99, , ,053 55, , ,838 52, , ,515 31,514 73, ,463 25,249 59, ,158 10,573 26, ,593 9,225 21, ,115 3,300 8, ,338 2,187 5, Total 4,495,511 4,189,452 8,684,963 11

12 Table 4: Population projection for South Sudan , ,104 1,529, , ,357 1,385, , ,037 1,214, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,649 55, , ,871 56, , ,020 29,275 68, ,690 26,913 62, ,501 10,336 25, ,905 9,433 22, ,299 2,856 7, ,493 1,650 4, Total 4,652,459 4,352,803 9,005,261 Table 5: Population projection for South Sudan, , ,373 1,707, , ,675 1,409, , ,337 1,193, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,160 61, , ,839 53, , ,921 31,018 71, ,726 25,257 58, ,964 11,508 29, ,738 7,533 18, ,977 2,627 6, ,763 1,087 2, Total 4,844,597 4,544,780 9,389,376 12

13 Table 6: Population projection of South Sudan, , ,516 1,974, , ,011 1,294, , ,158 1,351, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,839 55, , ,783 59, , ,048 30,142 70, ,545 25,230 58, ,433 11,105 28, ,378 6,198 15, ,665 2,432 6, , , Total 5,041,284 4,741,642 9,782,927 Table 7: Population projection of South Sudan, ,099,411 1,082,414 2,181, , ,590 1,298, , ,014 1,289, , ,560 1,049, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,261 85, , ,405 47, , ,531 43,317 97, ,740 23,828 55, ,008 15,781 38, ,828 5,532 14, ,037 3,359 8, , , Total 5,240,881 4,941,410 10,182,291 13

14 Table 8: Population projection for South Sudan, ,153,441 1,136,998 2,290, , ,061 1,355, , ,218 1,365, , ,275 1,079, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,754 90, , ,994 48, , ,504 43,284 97, ,328 22,931 54, ,171 15,380 37, ,919 4,728 12, ,195 2,715 6, , Total 5,442,151 5,142,892 10,585,044 Table 9: Population projection for South Sudan, ,204,109 1,187,052 2,391, , ,145 1,438, , ,781 1,368, , ,744 1,198, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,502 47, , ,408 45, , ,212 20,808 50, ,563 15,730 38, ,549 4,457 12, ,083 2,498 6, , Total 5,649,689 5,350,439 11,000,128 14

15 Table 10: Population projections for Upper Nile, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , , , , ,845 1,006, , ,863 1,042, , ,077 1,088, , ,778 1,135, , ,958 1,183, , ,996 1,231, , ,893 1,281, Average growth rate for Upper Nile State

16 Table 11: Midyear population for Upper Nile, ,448 71, , ,818 67, , ,099 55, , ,431 46, , ,544 40,101 82, ,814 37,991 76, ,251 30,923 63, ,239 26,597 56, ,294 19,861 42, ,160 13,635 31, ,619 10,645 24, ,546 5,820 14, ,397 5,882 14, ,978 3,213 8, ,650 3,137 7, ,245 1,409 3, ,772 1,171 2, , Total 529, , ,028 Table 12: Population projection for Upper Nile, ,658 77, , ,176 71, , ,746 57, , ,777 49, , ,766 40,875 84, ,526 38,424 77, ,576 32,431 66, ,489 26,079 55, ,556 22,157 46, ,819 13,316 31, ,212 11,123 25, ,788 6,007 14, ,382 5,949 14, ,079 3,225 8, ,605 3,173 7, ,108 1,309 3, ,641 1,099 2, , Total 546, ,845 1,006,923 16

17 Table 13: Population projection for Upper Nile, ,670 81, , ,216 72, , ,354 61, , ,897 47, , ,168 46,112 96, ,239 35,284 72, ,359 38,458 76, ,903 23,089 49, ,986 25,694 53, ,689 12,708 29, ,183 12,606 28, ,696 5,975 14, ,712 6,242 14, ,950 3,047 7, ,758 3,356 8, ,997 1,225 3, ,635 1,118 2, Total 563, ,863 1,042,224 Table 14: Population projection for Upper Nile, ,369 94, , ,454 72, , ,411 62, , ,788 52, , ,802 46,187 97, ,962 36,362 74, ,486 38,703 77, ,171 24,944 53, ,600 26,270 54, ,548 14,198 32, ,902 12,544 28, ,560 6,397 15, ,452 6,042 14, ,080 3,134 8, ,521 3,151 7, ,139 1,243 3, , , Total 586, ,077 1,088,477 17

18 Table 15: Population projection for Upper Nile, , , , ,077 67, , ,489 69, , ,400 51, , ,662 49, , ,820 36,120 73, ,350 40,526 80, ,534 24,374 51, ,231 27,798 58, ,524 14,307 32, ,520 13,020 29, ,973 6,055 15, ,258 6,361 15, ,934 3,137 8, ,182 2,855 7, ,216 1,268 3, , , Total 609, ,778 1,135,682 Table 16: Population projection for Upper Nile, , , , ,460 67, , ,827 67, , ,171 54, , ,166 45, , ,444 39,071 80, ,759 36,952 74, ,296 29,995 61, ,181 25,640 54, ,351 18,995 40, ,141 12,832 29, ,591 9,799 22, ,596 5,116 12, ,100 4,905 12, ,796 2,383 6, ,072 2,020 5, , , , Total 633, ,958 1,183,854 18

19 Table 17: Population projection for Upper Nile, , , , ,903 72, , ,144 70, , ,774 56, , ,386 48, , ,614 39,768 82, ,425 37,306 75, ,546 31,383 63, ,412 25,058 53, ,458 21,089 44, ,751 12,440 29, ,058 10,126 23, ,732 5,192 12, ,967 4,817 11, ,764 2,282 6, ,883 1,878 4, , Total 657, ,996 1,231,736 Table 18: Population projection for Upper Nile, , , , ,502 76, , ,157 71, , ,315 61, , ,519 46, , ,832 44,808 93, ,182 34,203 70, ,149 37,132 74, ,888 22,122 48, ,682 24,352 51, ,647 11,805 27, ,797 11,363 26, ,578 5,083 12, ,124 4,909 12, ,595 2,076 5, ,854 1,836 4, , Total 682, ,893 1,281,365 19

20 Table 19: Population projection for Jonglei State, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , ,661 1,373, , ,373 1,427, , ,922 1,482, , ,371 1,537, , ,571 1,589, , ,139 1,642, , ,504 1,696, , ,747 1,753, Average growth rate for Jonglei State

21 Table 20: Midyear population for Jonglei, ,488 97, , ,305 94, , ,115 78, , ,012 65, , ,245 60, , ,490 56, , ,083 47,743 90, ,309 37,795 75, ,906 29,409 58, ,972 20,289 45, ,757 15,770 35, ,842 7,784 19, ,712 7,960 20, ,914 4,177 11, ,511 3,967 11, ,941 1,528 4, ,859 1,514 4, , , , Total 741, ,661 1,373,338 Table 21: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , , , , ,891 80, , ,159 68, , ,789 61, , ,027 56, , ,727 51,240 96, ,470 36,214 71, ,985 33,780 66, ,471 19,275 42, ,261 16,883 38, ,255 8,190 20, ,836 8,118 20, ,157 4,213 11, ,410 4,044 11, ,857 1,412 4, ,605 1,411 4, , Total 768, ,373 1,427,966 21

22 Table 22: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , ,258 99, , ,331 89, , ,036 64, , ,601 69, , ,015 50,113 99, ,559 61, , ,558 31,804 63, ,274 38,666 75, ,867 18,467 40, ,783 19,191 42, ,230 8,126 20, ,493 8,719 22, ,992 3,963 10, ,571 4,293 11, ,759 1,325 4, ,724 1,429 4, , Total 795, ,922 1,482,653 Table 23: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , , , , ,635 87, , ,890 72, , ,722 70, , ,994 51, , ,223 60, , ,140 35,329 69, ,950 38,632 75, ,059 21,217 45, ,123 18,802 41, ,715 9,410 23, ,560 8,184 20, ,496 4,224 11, ,369 3,613 9, ,740 1,757 5, ,064 1,045 3, Total 821, ,371 1,537,247 22

23 Table 24: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , ,053 94, , ,572 99, , ,132 69, , ,886 74, , ,534 50, , ,883 63, , ,629 35,145 68, ,735 40,326 79, ,696 21,453 45, ,052 19,761 43, ,639 8,974 21, ,443 8,757 22, ,473 4,228 11, ,967 3,387 9, ,539 1,605 5, , , Total 846, ,571 1,589,377 Table 25: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , ,041 93, , ,079 93, , ,940 77, , ,391 64, , ,776 58, , ,150 55, , ,860 46,501 88, ,014 36,560 72, ,668 28,205 55, ,496 19,103 42, ,150 14,468 32, ,338 6,729 17, ,484 6,438 16, ,012 2,874 7, ,562 2,221 6, , , , Total 872, ,139 1,642,307 23

24 Table 26: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , , , , , , , ,635 79, , ,319 67, , ,162 60, , ,576 55, , ,318 49,839 94, ,126 34,955 69, ,419 32,272 63, ,919 18,030 39, ,316 15,325 34, ,518 6,966 17, ,258 6,338 16, ,932 2,734 7, ,104 2,029 6, , , Total 898, ,504 1,696,887 Table 27: Population projection for Jonglei, , , , , , , ,881 98, , ,885 88, , ,219 63, , ,604 68, , ,591 48,894 96, ,787 59, , ,272 30,645 60, ,348 36,819 72, ,304 17,198 37, ,392 17,251 38, ,330 6,800 17, ,462 6,578 17, ,636 2,460 7, ,886 1,966 5, , , Total 925, ,747 1,753,272 24

25 Table 28: Population projections for Unity State, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Average growth rate for Unity State

26 Table 29: Midyear population for Unity State, ,513 54, , ,895 48, , ,903 36,432 77, ,831 29,450 60, ,530 26,026 50, ,364 23,435 45, ,364 18,365 34, ,804 14,575 29, ,844 10,970 20, ,910 8,238 18, ,659 6,426 13, ,551 3,629 8, ,202 3,987 8, ,894 2,404 5, ,680 2,334 5, ,267 1,122 2, , Total 307, , ,890 Table 30: Population projection for Unity State, ,217 57, , ,817 53, , ,187 37,316 79, ,178 31,392 64, ,050 26,401 51, ,690 23,359 46, ,458 19,856 37, ,602 14,102 28, ,937 12,651 23, ,232 7,656 16, ,177 6,871 14, ,534 3,782 8, ,205 4,006 8, ,940 2,440 5, ,567 2,295 4, ,161 1,038 2, , Total 319, , ,544 26

27 Table 31: Population projection for Unity State, ,465 60, , ,349 53, , ,333 42,022 89, ,822 30,435 63, ,062 29,144 57, ,511 21,684 43, ,436 23,732 44, ,371 12,582 25, ,970 14,022 25, ,726 7,680 16, ,091 7,534 15, ,451 3,865 8, ,335 4,086 8, ,826 2,377 5, ,382 2,171 4, ,267 1,145 2, , Total 331, , ,851 Table 32: Population projection for Unity State, ,269 65, , ,365 56, , ,122 42,251 89, ,704 34,158 71, ,607 29,329 57, ,610 22,036 43, ,717 23,811 44, ,421 14,000 28, ,275 14,107 26, ,373 8,719 18, ,097 7,428 15, ,865 4,267 9, ,227 3,858 8, ,839 2,505 5, ,430 2,170 4, ,384 1,221 2, , Total 346, , ,870 27

28 Table 33: Population projection for Unity State, ,441 73, , ,105 53, , ,514 48, , ,165 33,599 70, ,838 30,761 61, ,588 22,451 44, ,105 24,888 46, ,338 14,328 28, ,209 14,807 28, ,174 8,748 17, ,616 7,755 16, ,496 4,075 8, ,668 4,142 8, ,831 2,502 5, ,351 2,118 4, ,313 1,179 2, , Total 361, , ,045 Table 34: Population projection for Unity State, ,966 81, , ,403 52, , ,312 47, , ,436 36,071 76, ,228 28,769 58, ,942 25,112 49, ,795 22,924 44, ,909 17,942 33, ,917 14,175 28, ,446 10,605 20, ,374 7,870 17, ,168 6,036 12, ,041 3,294 7, ,541 3,469 7, ,185 1,904 4, ,711 1,601 3, , Total 377, , ,010 28

29 Table 35: Population projection for Unity State, ,993 84, , ,843 54, , ,253 52, , ,753 36,962 78, ,593 30,883 63, ,515 25,711 50, ,174 22,876 45, ,020 19,412 36, ,937 13,724 27, ,529 12,234 22, ,765 7,314 16, ,682 6,453 13, ,054 3,431 7, ,570 3,469 7, ,233 1,913 4, ,628 1,531 3, , Total 393, , ,673 Table 36: Population projection for Unity State, ,775 86, , ,876 58, , ,867 53, , ,900 41,643 88, ,305 29,964 62, ,537 28,610 56, ,080 21,261 42, ,978 23,217 43, ,010 12,254 25, ,565 13,567 25, ,324 7,345 15, ,574 7,074 14, ,010 3,505 7, ,704 3,519 7, ,174 1,858 4, ,538 1,439 2, , Total 410, , ,703 29

30 Table 37: Population projections for Warrap State, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , , , , ,372 1,022, , ,222 1,062, , ,074 1,105, , ,208 1,149, , ,511 1,193, , ,072 1,237, , ,331 1,283, Average growth rate for Warrap State

31 Table 38: Midyear population for Warrap State, ,168 87, , ,614 79, , ,092 61, , ,111 50,818 95, ,455 45,586 80, ,736 46,541 81, ,005 35,427 61, ,336 31,130 58, ,403 19,888 38, ,451 16,099 33, ,840 11,002 21, ,702 7,023 14, ,170 6,070 12, ,406 3,826 8, ,113 2,682 5, ,695 1,373 3, ,394 1,305 2, , Total 476, , ,893 Table 39: Population projection for Warrap State, ,229 90, , ,172 85, , ,238 62, , ,578 53, , ,958 46,588 81, ,284 46,277 81, ,679 38,473 66, ,938 29,846 55, ,970 23,136 44, ,533 15,302 31, ,785 11,934 23, ,861 7,213 15, ,327 6,253 12, ,025 3,780 7, ,150 2,812 5, ,610 1,239 2, ,264 1,245 2, , Total 495, ,372 1,022,923 31

32 Table 40: Population projection for Warrap State, ,588 94, , ,216 86, , ,142 71, , ,562 48,692 96, ,642 53,163 93, ,587 40,418 72, ,496 47,515 81, ,937 25,110 47, ,871 28,219 53, ,210 14,424 29, ,962 13,817 27, ,474 7,003 14, ,001 6,839 13, ,755 3,495 7, ,038 3,078 6, ,492 1,199 2, ,334 1,265 2, Total 515, ,222 1,062,275 Table 41: Population projection for Warrap State, , , , ,562 89, , ,638 70, , ,846 55, , ,126 52,450 93, ,649 40,978 72, ,981 47,075 80, ,670 27,821 51, ,756 28,722 53, ,406 15,786 32, ,017 13,785 27, ,045 7,663 15, ,754 6,714 13, ,116 3,638 7, ,723 3,020 5, ,632 1,337 2, ,107 1,053 2, Total 536, ,074 1,105,422 32

33 Table 42: Population projection for Warrap State, , , , ,570 80, , ,279 82, , ,655 52, , ,890 55, , ,035 40,228 71, ,055 49,974 85, ,469 26,863 49, ,654 31,080 57, ,774 15,468 31, ,963 14,631 29, ,654 6,357 13, ,087 8,057 16, ,844 3,487 7, ,873 3,205 6, ,528 1,308 2, , Total 557, ,208 1,149,135 Table 43: Population projection for Warrap State, , , , ,518 81, , ,308 78, , ,968 60, , ,761 49,599 93, ,275 44,350 77, ,501 45,238 78, ,010 34,369 59, ,115 30,046 56, ,425 19,071 36, ,244 15,236 31, ,856 10,230 20, ,683 6,299 12, ,100 5,244 10, ,805 3,029 5, ,008 1,893 3, , , Total 579, ,511 1,193,156 33

34 Table 44: Population projection for Warrap State, , , , ,985 83, , ,683 84, , ,024 61, , ,016 52, , ,695 45,278 78, ,958 44,934 78, ,554 37,276 63, ,703 28,760 53, ,777 22,137 41, ,299 14,435 29, ,638 11,050 21, ,754 6,435 13, ,143 5,345 10, ,725 2,945 5, ,952 1,929 3, , Total 601, ,072 1,237,688 Table 45: Population projection for Warrap State, , , , ,381 87, , ,621 85, , ,701 70, , ,002 47,455 93, ,103 51,621 90, ,341 39,206 69, ,061 45,981 78, ,838 24,166 45, ,378 26,955 50, ,017 13,579 27, ,525 12,748 25, ,341 6,199 12, ,600 5,790 11, ,678 2,698 5, ,817 2,078 3, , Total 624, ,331 1,283,621 34

35 Table 46: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Average growth rate for Northern Bahr el Ghazal State

36 Table 47: Midyear population for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, ,626 70, , ,259 62, , ,694 40,689 83, ,365 32,542 61, ,929 33,051 55, ,663 33,123 55, ,028 24,223 43, ,641 22,260 41, ,481 15,318 28, ,130 11,934 25, ,126 9,601 18, ,395 6,346 12, ,827 5,913 11, ,218 4,145 8, ,463 3,271 6, ,843 1,561 3, ,782 1,702 3, , , , ,507 Total 357, , ,436 Table 48: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, ,212 75, , ,457 67, , ,534 44,230 90, ,554 33,738 65, ,496 33,445 56, ,229 33,143 55, ,036 26,272 46, ,984 21,115 40, ,335 16,413 30, ,902 12,409 25, ,511 10,025 19, ,431 6,403 12, ,667 5,981 11, ,111 4,152 8, ,280 3,265 6, ,660 1,493 3, ,491 1,562 3, , , Total 371, , ,653 36

37 Table 49: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, ,728 77, , ,107 72, , ,883 49, , ,103 33,154 65, ,971 35,392 61, ,386 30,384 50, ,786 31,553 54, ,856 18,725 35, ,493 19,056 35, ,845 11,799 23, ,625 10,916 21, ,273 6,360 12, ,846 6,313 12, ,744 3,860 7, ,116 3,318 6, ,587 1,515 3, ,403 1,553 2, Total 385, , ,427 Table 50: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, ,671 83, , ,953 72, , ,036 52, , ,944 36,682 73, ,024 35,183 62, ,242 30,559 50, ,460 31,915 54, ,375 19,683 37, ,229 20,187 37, ,521 12,464 24, ,658 10,741 21, ,749 6,957 13, ,544 5,955 11, ,911 4,144 8, ,046 3,168 6, ,766 1,657 3, ,106 1,201 2, Total 400, , ,437 37

38 Table 51: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, ,799 93, , ,449 65, , ,278 61, , ,025 36,001 73, ,084 36,679 65, ,945 30,016 49, ,323 33,882 57, ,556 18,974 35, ,753 21,680 40, ,025 12,154 24, ,218 11,246 22, ,579 5,560 11, ,733 7,220 13, ,559 3,666 7, ,212 3,516 6, ,719 1,642 3, ,007 1,029 2, Total 414, , ,322 Table 52: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, , , , ,013 66, , ,953 61, , ,795 40,077 81, ,332 31,733 60, ,979 32,095 54, ,695 32,134 53, ,162 23,452 41, ,616 21,436 40, ,650 14,643 27, ,100 11,255 23, ,199 8,883 17, ,484 5,654 11, ,736 5,053 9, ,092 3,241 6, ,199 2,255 4, , , Total 430, , ,842 38

39 Table 53: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, , , , ,315 69, , ,123 66, , ,598 43,557 89, ,495 32,874 63, ,586 32,459 55, ,348 32,133 53, ,189 25,412 44, ,063 20,308 38, ,515 15,667 29, ,959 11,674 23, ,611 9,237 17, ,578 5,673 11, ,678 5,061 9, ,073 3,191 6, ,129 2,183 4, , , Total 445, , ,060 Table 54: Population projection for Northern Bahr el Ghazal, , , , ,671 70, , ,750 71, , ,888 48,877 99, ,084 32,288 63, ,038 34,333 59, ,641 29,441 49, ,898 30,494 52, ,104 17,991 34, ,625 18,162 33, ,050 11,077 22, ,701 10,023 19, ,490 5,591 11, ,885 5,284 10, ,864 2,931 5, ,095 2,182 4, , , Total 460, , ,346 39

40 Table 55: Population projections for Western Bahr el Ghazal, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Average growth rate for Western Bahr el Ghazal State

41 Table 56: Midyear population for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,512 27,461 56, ,500 24,294 50, ,318 17,448 37, ,998 16,010 34, ,395 15,677 32, ,711 15,310 32, ,601 10,869 23, ,859 9,539 21, ,237 6,451 14, ,424 4,967 11, ,020 3,429 7, ,661 2,187 4, ,351 1,922 4, ,476 1,253 2, , , , Total 179, , ,823 Table 57: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,435 28,787 59, ,115 26,063 54, ,230 18,255 39, ,632 16,315 34, ,438 15,973 32, ,849 15,455 32, ,443 11,841 25, ,610 9,256 20, ,930 7,052 15, ,542 5,003 11, ,219 3,607 7, ,795 2,280 5, ,400 1,984 4, ,494 1,218 2, , , , Total 185, , ,766 41

42 Table 58: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,478 30,352 61, ,968 26,029 53, ,005 20,982 44, ,865 14,385 31, ,613 18,021 36, ,418 14,064 29, ,814 14,420 30, ,692 8,284 18, ,283 8,329 18, ,271 4,743 11, ,917 4,136 9, ,776 2,288 5, ,552 2,081 4, ,454 1,192 2, ,143 1,007 2, , Total 191, , ,944 Table 59: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,520 33,839 68, ,457 26,218 54, ,191 21,708 45, ,923 15,993 34, ,063 17,326 35, ,853 14,626 30, ,866 14,593 30, ,348 9,087 20, ,317 8,517 18, ,113 5,241 12, ,961 4,068 9, ,053 2,527 5, ,469 2,016 4, ,533 1,236 2, , , , Total 198, , ,930 42

43 Table 60: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,473 38,886 78, ,519 24,798 51, ,099 24,276 51, ,401 15,607 34, ,670 17,759 36, ,694 14,668 30, ,597 15,445 32, ,300 8,943 20, ,042 9,137 20, ,236 5,304 12, ,213 4,237 9, ,866 2,333 5, ,712 2,232 4, ,548 1,196 2, , , , Total 206, , ,217 Table 61: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,582 42,099 84, ,346 25,690 53, ,173 24,020 50, ,045 17,232 37, ,587 15,667 33, ,965 15,291 31, ,256 14,914 31, ,231 10,563 22, ,454 9,221 20, ,895 6,191 14, ,079 4,701 10, ,730 3,180 6, ,381 1,952 4, ,015 1,638 3, , , , Total 214, , ,632 43

44 Table 62: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,858 44,297 89, ,045 26,783 54, ,768 25,768 53, ,942 18,026 38, ,198 15,958 34, ,999 15,569 31, ,379 15,040 31, ,034 11,492 24, ,195 8,929 20, ,540 6,747 15, ,167 4,714 10, ,893 3,323 7, ,479 2,013 4, ,023 1,655 3, , , , Total 221, , ,072 Table 63: Population projection for Western Bahr el Ghazal, ,766 46,187 92, ,479 28,664 58, ,623 25,732 53, ,678 20,716 44, ,472 14,068 30, ,109 17,555 35, ,979 13,676 28, ,319 13,978 29, ,295 7,978 18, ,815 7,950 17, ,895 4,452 10, ,517 3,787 8, ,440 1,997 4, ,118 1,703 3, , , , Total 229, , ,009 44

45 Table 64: Population projections for Lakes State, Year Males Females Total t r 100r , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Average growth rate for Lakes State