Macro Economic & Demographic Trends: India

Transcription

1 Macro Economic & Demographic Trends: India 14 th Global Conference of Actuaries, Mumbai; February 19-21, 2012 Report compiled by Actuarial Team, Aviva Life Insurance Co. India Ltd.

2 1. Macro Economic Factors This section presents the macro-economic picture of the Indian economy over the last decade. Numbers imply that the sweeping reforms of the 1990s have put the economy on an accelerated growth path barring a few exceptions in the middle. The Indian economy has also proved to some extent insulated from the economic turmoil in the west. Although rising inflation, exchange rates fluctuations and external debt still remains a pain. GDP Real Growth Rate - Annual growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adjusted for inflation. GDP is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the economy. GDP Per Capita on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis is the GDP divided by population, as on 1 July for a year. For India, it has increased to US$ 3,500 in 2010 from US$ 2,200 in Inflation rate the percent annual change in consumer prices relative to previous year. The current level of inflation (last quarter of 2011) in India is still quite high, at around 11% but is expected to moderate over Public Debt (% of GDP) is the cumulative total of all government borrowings less repayments, denominated in local currency. Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 2 of 8

3 External debt - the total public and private debt owed to non-residents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services. These are determined on exchange rate basis. Industrial Production Growth Rate refers to the annual increase in industrial production. It includes manufacturing, mining and construction. Exports are represented in US$ (Billion). It is the total US dollar amount of merchandise exports on free on board basis. It is determined on exchange rate basis. Imports are represented in US$ (Billion). It is the total US dollar amount of merchandise imports on cost, insurance, and freight. It is determined on exchange rate basis. Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 3 of 8

4 2. Social and Demographic Factors This section gives a snapshot of the demographics of India. India is the second most populous country in the world, with over 1.21 billion people (2011 census), more than a sixth of the world's population. India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% hovers below the age of 35. India has more than two thousand ethnic groups. Further complexity is lent by the great variation that occurs across this population on social parameters such as income, education, etc. India ranks 2 nd in the world (after China) in the total population. India accounts for more than a sixth of the world s population. Population density represents the number of people per unit of area (per square kilometer). India ranks 33 rd in the list of most densely populated countries. Birth rate is the dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth. This depends on both the level of fertility and the age structure of the population. Birth rate represents the average annual number of births during a year, per 1,000 persons in the population at mid-year. Birth rate in India has seen a decline over recent past, reducing from 24.8 in 2000 to 21.0 in Death rate represents the average annual number of deaths during a year, per 1,000 persons in the population at mid- year. Death rate indicates the current mortality impact on population growth. This indicator is significantly affected by age distribution. Death rate in India has come down to 7.48 in 2011, as compared to 8.88 in Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 4 of 8

5 Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of infant deaths (less than one year old) in a given year per 1,000 births for the same year. Improving medical conditions have led to a decline in IMR from 64.9 in 2000 to 47.5 in Unemployment Rate is the percentage of labor force that is without jobs. Substantial unemployment is noted highly by the Government. Total fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born per woman, if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. This indicates the potential for population change in the country. TFR has gone down to 2.6 in 2011 from 3.1 in Life Expectancy Rate represents the average number of years to be lived by a group of people born in the same year, if mortality at each age remains constant in the future. It is a measure of overall quality of life in a country and summarizes the mortality at all ages. With better standard of living, higher per capita income, and better medical facilities, the life expectancy in India has increased to 66.8 in Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 5 of 8

6 Indian Insurance Industry The Indian Insurance Industry has travelled a long way since the time when businesses were tightly regulated and concentrated in the hands of a few public sector insurers. A blend of factors shall ensure further strong growth, including sound economic fundamentals, rising household wealth and an improvement in the regulatory framework. By comparing growth, penetration, density and other insurance variables, it can be shown that, whilst India is still an underdeveloped insurance market, it has a huge catch-up potential in life, health and general insurance space. Insurance Density - ratio of premium (US $) to the total population. There has been substantial development in Insurance density in India, especially for Life business, grown from 18.3 in 2005 to 55.7 in Insurance penetration - ratio of premium (in US $) to GDP (in US $). This has been stable over the last 10 years for Non- Life business. Life insurance penetration almost doubled over last decade. Private Sector needs to re-look at their strategies for maintaining at par persistency levels vis-à-vis LIC. Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 6 of 8

7 Private Sector (Non-Life) maintains a better market share relative to the Private Sector (Life). The ratio of Net Incurred Claims for Private to Public Sector seems to be lower than that of Gross Direct Premium Income. Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 7 of 8

8 Higher commission ratio for Private players indicates the need for higher incentives to sell/ renewal of their business relative to LIC. The higher ratio for private sector also indicates that the new business to total busienss premium ratio is higher for Private sector where higher commission rates are payable. The split between public and private has increased over years. Although the commision expense ratio remains lower for Private sector. The vast difference indicates the benefit of large economies of scale as well as larger inforce book of LIC compared to private Sector. The Private sector enjoys a slightly lower operating expense ratio relative to Public sector. Economic and Demographic Trends - India Page 8 of 8