Social and demographic challenges of sustainable development in Russia Daria Popova

Transcription

1 Social and demographic challenges of sustainable development in Russia Daria Popova INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN EAST AND NORTH-EAST ASIA: STRENGTHENING NATIONAL CAPACITY TO PRODUCE AND USE STATISTICAL INFORMATION September 2012, Beijing China

2 2011 Population, mln Population 0-17 years, % 18.2 Population 65+, % 12.8 GNI per capita, PPP USD GDP growth, % 4.3 HDI rank 66 Unemployment rate (ILO), % 6.6 CPI, % National currency Rubles

3 200 GDP 1991=100% Real income Real wage Real adjusted wage (including hidden wage) Real pension Real income restored in 2005, real pension in 2010; 40% of earnings is hidden from statistical observation.

4 45% 40% Gini coefficient, % Poverty headcount, % of the population 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Absolute poverty reduced by half due to economic growth; but persistent inequality.

5 Poverty by population subgroups, 2010 Poverty profile, % Poverty risk, % By type of settlement Urban Rural By age group Children under 16 years People of active working age People of pension age By status of economic activity (people aged 15+ years) Economically active population, incl.: Employed, incl.: working pensioners Unemployed Economically inactive population, incl.: not working pensioners Structure of the households of the 1st income decile All non-working persons are pensioners All ablebodied persons work At least one ablebodied person neither works, nor studies and is not a pensioner At least one ablebodied person does not work, but studies or is a pensioner 22% 4% 45% 29% Total Rural population, children and unemployed are at the highest risk of poverty; extreme poverty is caused by the exit from the labour market.

6 % of the population that cannot afford (Gender and Generation Survey) 0% 50% 100% once a year to go on 1-week vacation away from home for every member of the household 73% 66% 59% to pay for education of family members if necessary to invite friends or relatives for lunch, dinner at least once a month to replace, if necessary, old furniture and durables to pay for health services, excluding expensive surgery, if necessary to eat meat, chicken or fish at least every second day to buy new, not second-hand clothes to keep the house warm enough 26% 22% 15% 20% 15% 10% 17% 11% 9% 47% 39% 42% 51% 41% 60% 53% The incidence of material deprivation reduced but more slowly compared to monetary poverty. 36% 46% 62%

7 Gender and Generation Survey 2011 Income poverty (19.8%) 17.2% Subjective poverty (38.2%) 7% 6.7% 5.1% 1% 9.5% Deprivation poverty (21%) 5.4% Small area of intersection i of alternative poverty definitions.

8 Gender and Generation Survey % Socioprofessional status (20.8%) 12.6% 5.5% 4.8% 4.3% Material assets and property (28%) 5.1% 11.0% Subjective estimates (25.2%) The Russian middle class is not a homogeneous social group: only 5% satisfy all the three criteria; about 20% satisfy at least two criteria.

9 0% 10% Social stratification (Gender and Generation Survey) middle class 20% 30% potential middle class 40% % 60% class below middle 70% 80% potential poverty 90% 100% poverty The major social group of households (70%) is between the low and middle classes; very little dynamics.

10 18 Components of the total population change births (left scale) deaths (left scale) natural increase (right scale) total increase (right scale) Population decline due to natural loss.

11 life expectancy at birth, years life expectancy at birth: women life expectancy at birth: all population life expectancy at birth: men total fertility rate Extremely high mortality rate of men of working age; fertility is considerably below the reproduction level total fertility rate, number of births per 100 women

12 60 Indicators of child and maternal mortality 50 Maternal mortality (per 100,000 live births) Mortality among children under 5 (per 1,000 live-born children) Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) Child mortality reduced by half, little progress in maternal mortality since 2004.

13 % 100% the proportion of the population: below working age (0-15 years) of working age above working age Decrease in the proportion of children and population ageing

14 Indicator (2009) Russian Federation Best among the regions Worst among the regions Moscow-city GDP per capita, PPP USD 18,260 46,359 (Tiumen region) 1,988 (Republic of Ingushetia) 37,088 Poland Switzerland Cambodia, Nigeria Canada Fertility rate (Chechen Republic) (Leningrad Region) 1.41 Switzerland, Spain, Czech Republic Haiti, Bolivia, Laos Republic of Korea Austria, Hungary, Italy Infant mortality (Khantymansiyskiy AO) 16.6 (Chechenskaya Republic) 6.7 Bulgaria, Kuwait, Montenergo Austria, Belgium, Germany Brasil, China Latvia, Chile Life expectancy at birth (Republic of Ingushetia) (Chukotskiy AO) Belarus, Moldova Portugal, Slovenia Guinea, Sudan Bulgaria, Hungary Huge regional disparities in social development indicators

15 Thank you!