Rozvoj zam stnanosti v sociálních slu bách: klí ové faktory a perspektivy. Shaping employment in social services: key factors and future perspectives

Transcription

1 Rozvoj zam stnanosti v sociálních slu bách: klí ové faktory a perspektivy Shaping employment in social services: key factors and future perspectives T. Sirovátka and O. Hora

2 Focus Development of health and social services (HSW) and employment in HSW in Sustainable development of social services: their potential for job creation: the scope/level of employment, quality of jobs and sustainability of jobs and employment in the context of fiscal consolidation and fiscal sustainability changing governance and innovations: regulation, financing, delivery of social services comparative study: quantitative analysis, national case studies (qualitative-quantitative)

3 Employment in social services demand drivers 1 changing women s roles, their growing labour market participation (women s role revolution) 2 demand shift towards services - broadening purchasing power throughout the population (role of income differentials?) 3 ageing of population 4 new social risks (dynamic labour market, reconciliation work-family, social exclusion) 5 path dependency of WS development, timing of service development, service dependency? country differences, e.g. different cultures

4 Employment in social services supply drivers 1 productivity lag (Baumol) will obstruct or foster employment growth in sector of services? possible responses: to adjust labour cost (market cleaning), to adjust earnings in services to overall economy earnings, to subsidize services 2 technical complexity of the provision of social services (health care) 3 vested/professional interests 4 user profile of the clients (broad public is interested) 5 political considerations electoral gains, buffer against uncertainty/unemployment 6 governance reforms (their own urgencies)

5 Employment in HSS health and social services sector in : in average 6% employment rate in the EU increased in last ten years by 0.7 percentage points differences among EU countries are remarkable (from 14% in Denmark to 2.7% in Romania) crisis in did not change much on the continuous growth of employment in social services (health and social services/hsw) 78% of employment in HSW are women growing older: in overall 26.5 % of workers older than 50 years while in HSW it is 30.3 %

6 Employment in HSS first cluster: countries where employment rate is between 10.6% to 14.0% (Sweden, Finland, The Netherlands and Denmark): second cluster: countries where employment rate is between 8.4% to 9.1% (Belgium, France, Germany and UK) third (North-West) cluster: between 6.1% to 7.7% (Luxembourg, Austria and Ireland) Large South-Central-East cluster employment rate in social services is between 2.7% (Romania) and 4.8% (Portugal)

7 Employment rate HSS (+ GOV) HSS + GOV Change HSS Change Denmark Netherlands Finland Sweden

8 Employment rate HSS (+ GOV) HSS + GOV Change HSS Change Belgium Germany France UK

9 Employment rate HSS (+ GOV) HSS + GOV Change HSS Change Luxembourg Austria Ireland

10 HSS + GOV Change HSS Change Malta Portugal Czech Republic Spain Slovakia Greece Cyprus Hungary Slovenia Estonia Italy Bulgaria Lithuania Poland Latvia Romania

11 HEALTH RESIDENTIAL S.W. wt. ACC. EMPLOYMENT Ireland (1) 8.4 (16-18) 1.2 (8) Finland (2) 7.3 (4) 3.3 (2) Germany (3-5) 7.2 (6) 2.7 (10) 2.3 (3) 0.9 Netherlands (3-5) 7.2 (2) 4.8 (3) 4.4 (2) 1.0 UK (3-5) 7.2 (7) 2.5 (7) Denmark (6) 7.1 (3) 4.6 (1) Belgium (7-9) 6.9 (5) 3.2 (6) Sweden (7-9) 6.9 (1) 4.9 (5) 3.6 (1) 1.4 France (7-9) 6.9 (9) 2.2 (4) Austria (10) 6.6 (12) 1.6 (11) Lithuania (11) 5.7 (20-21) 0.7 (-) : : Malta (12) 5.4 (8) 2.3 (-) : : Italy (13) 5.3 (19) 1.1 (16-17) Czech Republic (14) 5.1 (16-18) 1.2 (19) High employment share of social services: NORTH-WEST

12 HEALTH RESIDENTIAL S.W. wt. ACC. EMPLOYMENT Spain (15) 4.9 (14) 1.4 (13-14) Luxembourg (16-17) 4.8 (10) 1.9 (9) 2.7 : Greece (16-17) 4.8 (26) 0.3 (21-22) 0.5 : Estonia (18) 4.7 (-) : : : Slovakia (19-20) 4.5 (16-18) 1.2 (13-14) Poland (19-20) 4.5 (22) 0.6 (18) Hungary (21) 4.3 (13) 1.5 (16-17) Portugal (22-23) 4.2 (11) 1.7 (12) 1.4 : Slovenia (22-23) 4.2 (15) 1.3 (23-24) 0.4 : Bulgaria (24) 3.7 (23-24) 0.5 (15) 1.0 : Romania (25) 3.6 (25) 0.4 (21-22) 0.5 : Latvia (26) 3.6 (20-21) 0.7 (20) 0.6 : Cyprus (27) 3.4 (23-24) 0.5 (23-24) 0.4 : Low employment share of social services: SOUTH-EAST

13 Jobs in HSW: trends + problems Wages in HSW sector grew more slowly than in other parts of the economy and are in most EU member states bellow average wage in the economy Although skill levels are relatively high and working conditions are often demanding Sufficient labour supply in future?? Above average job quality in cognitive demands on jobs, job complexity, learning new things, monotony of the job + job security But lower level of job autonomy, higher psychical and physical health risks

14 Examination of the factors shaping employment in HSW, Financing of the welfare state (government receipts, tax on labour, social protection expenditure, social protection expenditure in kind) Demographic (ageing of population old age dependency, fertility rate) Political-economic cycle (proxy variables - GDP growth, public deficit, unemployment rate total, men, women) Employment pattern/modernization (employment rate total, men, women) Static analysis (values) + dynamic analysis (change in values) view

15 Findings: pattern of employment growth in HSW sector 1 employment rate in Health and social services is stably and strongly correlated with three kinds of variables: financing of the welfare state (receipts, exp), overall employment rate and fertility rate 2 moderate correlation with the variables which characterize labour market performance like unemployment rates, empl. rate women, men 3? moderate corr. with GDP growth, weak - public deficit, O-A dependency The above pattern changed only little during time: social investment + employment growth path (1)

16 Correlation coefficients PE with the variable Employment rate in health and social services Strong > 0.66 Moderate > 0.33 Weak, insignificant Social Protection Expenditure in Kind (.840) ** Social Protection Expenditure Total (.807) ** Employment rate women (.637) ** Employment rate men (.636) ** Public Finance Deficit Old Age Dependency Total government receipts from taxes and social contributions (.798)** Unemployment rate women (-.502) * Employment rate total (.748) ** Fertility rate (.728) ** Unemployment rate total (-.472) * Unemployment rate men (-.426) * Tax on labour (.670) ** GDP growth (.391) *

17 Current and future problems a) the labour force in the HSW sector is rapidly ageing; b) the younger generations of workers in HSW in many countries less often have a high level of education when compared to the older generations; c) workers with a medium level of education are usually NOT specifically educated in health and welfare d) risk of lack of manpower despite high levels of unemployment, due to demanding working conditions and low job quality (discussion)

18 Current and future problems There appear two worlds of social services emerging: 1) the world of formal, more standardized, high quality services provided by a relatively highly qualified workforce; 2) the world of hidden, semi-formal, unknown quality services provided by less qualified people who are often neighbours or immigrant workers.

19 Financing Sustainable financing is a necessary condition for employment in social services (stable revenue within a decided taxstructure, ability to finance social services given the changes in the global economy and over the business cycle) In the EU the tax systems have not become more sustainable in the last 10 years: this implies a higher level of pressure on the financing of the welfare states mixing public + private resources

20 Social Innovations Social innovation plays an increasing role in social services, especially when understood and implemented as systematic change This includes several elements: - focus on consumers needs and service quality standards; - mobilizing resources and combining different ways of financing social services public and private; - participation of a broader range of actors and synergy of their actions. Effects of innovations on employment (discussion)

21 The driving forces summarized Strong path dependency in WS model financing and employment patterns matter Employment growth in SS: positive correlated with WS finance, overall employment, fertility rate, GDP growth Change in gender roles Ageing of society will mater in future more Two (three) possible scenarios: low road, high road, mixed strategy Position of the Czech Republic?

22 The driving forces/policy implications Sound, sustainable public finance necessary (expenditure + revenues, tax structure) Private funding plays an increasing role State governance and regulation is essential (quality standards, choice) Social innovations as systemic change (consumer focus, mix of resources, actors, welfare technologies)

23 The driving forces/policy implications Social investments Work-family life balance, employment + economic growth Sustaibale labour supply for social services raise the profile and professional status of the jobs, on the job training a.o.

24 D kuji za pozornost Thank you for your attention