Key Trends of Energy Transition in the EU-28 Region

Transcription

1 Key Trends of Energy Transition in the EU-28 Region Jarmo Vehmas, Jyrki Luukkanen & Jari Kaivo-oja Session 13, Innovation in Future Technology June 2017, Turku Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland Energy efficiency trends in the EU-28 Member States 1

2 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain, Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 3,00 2,80 2,60 2,40 2,20 2,00 1,80 Cyprus Greece Italy Malta Portugal Spain EU-28 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 1,80 1,70 1,50 1,30 1,10 France Germany United Kingdom EU-28 2

3 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in Denmark, Finland and Sweden, Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 1,50 1,30 1,10 Denmark Finland Sweden EU-28 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 1,70 1,50 1,30 1,10 Austria Belgium Ireland Luxembourg Netherlands EU-28 3

4 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 2,2 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 Estonia Latvia Lithuania EU-28 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 1,80 1,70 1,50 1,30 1,10 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia EU-28 4

5 Trend of energy efficiency of the energy transformation system in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia, 1971/ Total primary energy supply (TPES in Mtoe) divided by final energy consumption (FEC in Mtoe). The lower the relation value, the better the efficiency. 2,20 2,00 1,80 Bulgaria Croatia Romania Slovenia EU-28 Trends of energy intensity () 5

6 economy in Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain, Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD 2005.Data source: IEA ,20 0,18 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,10 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 Cyprus Greece Italy Malta Portugal Spain EU-28 economy in France, Germany, and the United KIngdom, Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD Data source: IEA ,18 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,10 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 France Germany United Kingdom EU-28 6

7 economy in Denmark, Finland and Sweden, Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD Data source: IEA ,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 Denmark Finland Sweden EU-28 economy in Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD Data source: IEA ,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 Austria Belgium Ireland Luxembourg Netherlands EU-28 7

8 economy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD Data source: IEA ,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 Estonia Latvia Lithuania EU-28 economy in Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD Data source: IEA ,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia EU-28 8

9 economy in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia, 1971/ Final energy consumption (FEC) divided by gross domestic product (GDP), Mtoe/1000 USD Data source: IEA ,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Bulgaria Croatia Romania Slovenia EU-28 Decrease/increase categories of the trends In Tables 2-5, the most decreasing and the most increasing values for the effects of and have been marked with different shades of green (decreasing effect) and red (increasing effect). The scales of the shades are based on the following decrease/increase categories: % or more bright green % % green -9.99% % light green -2.49% 2.49% white 2.50% 9.99% light red 10.00% 19.99% red 20.00% or more bright red 9

10 Results of total primary energy supply (DTPES) decomposition analysis for EU Member States and EU15 and EU-28 aggregates, effects are sums of incremental (annual) effects. EU-28 Member State TPES , % of 1990 TPES 1990 TPES Statistical info on i ncremental effects, % of previous year s TPES 1990 TPES Statistical info on effects, % of previous Md Av. Stdev Min Max Md Av. S Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU EU Results of total primary energy supply (DTPES) decomposition analysis for EU-28 Member States, effects are sums of incremental (annual) effects. EU-28 Member State TPES , % of 2000 TPES 2000 TPES Statistical info on i ncremental effects, % of previous year s TPES 2000 TPES Statistical info on incremental effects, % of previous year s TPES Md Av. Stdev Min Max Md Av. Stdev Min Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU EU

11 Results of total primary energy supply (DTPES) decomposition analysis for EU-28 Member States, effects are sums of incremental (annual) effects. EU-28 Member State TPES , % of 2005 TPES 2005 TPES Statistical info on i ncremental effects, % of previous year s TPES 2005 TPES Statistical info on in effects, % of previous ye Md Av. Stdev Min Max Md Av. Stde Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU EU Results of total primary energy supply (DTPES) decomposition analysis for EU-28 Member States, effects are sums of incremental (annual) effects. EU-28 Member State TPES , % of 2010 TPES 2010 TPES Statistical info on i ncremental effects, % of previous year s TPES 2010 TPES Statistical info on incrementa effects, % of previous year s TPES Md Av. Stdev Min Max Md Av. Stdev M Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU EU

12 Conclusions The long-term trends of these indicators can be heavily generalized by saying that energy intensity has decreased significantly in most of the EU-28 Member States, but the trend of ratio is not so clear and varies a lot between different Member States. Increasing use of electricity affects the ratio very differently, depending on the used primary energy sources (fossil, nuclear, renewables) and modes of electricity production (CHP, condensing power). Some general observations are worth mentioning from the analyses carried out in this report: There is significant variation between the annual changes among the EU Member States, both in the absolute trends of energy efficiency drivers and, as well as in the decomposed effects of these drivers on total primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion. The variation is large especially in small EU Member States and the new EU Member States. The energy efficiency performance of the EU Member States seems to improve over time. Time period was the worst period in practically all Member States, but since then both total primary energy supply and CO2 emissions from fuel combustion have decreased in many Member States, but not in all of them. Conclusions The trend of energy intensity is good in general terms, but in practice it depends not only on good performance in energy efficiency, but also on poor economic performance which is directly reflected into the indicator. The trend of ratio reflects the efficiency of the energy transformation system from primary energy to final energy consumption. In some countries there is a decreasing trend, but also increasing trends have been identified. This may partly be due to changes in real efficiency, but is also influenced by the fact that energy statistics do not treat different energy sources used in electricity production in a similar way. Some energy sources such as hydro, wind and solar have a ratio of 1, but nuclear has a ratio 3, and geothermal even higher ratio 10. Fuel-based electricity generation is more coherent in this sense, when primary energy is calculated from the fuel s energy content, and electricity and heat are treated as such in final energy consumption. However, the ratio does not take into account the efficiency of the appliances consuming the final energy and providing the actual energy service. 12

13 Thank you for attention! Dr Jarmo Vehmas, FFRC, TSE, University of Turku Dr Jyrki Luukkanen, FFRC, TSE, University of Turku Dr Jari Kaivo-oja, FFRC, TSE, University of Turku 13