DYNAMIC DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM

Transcription

1 DYNAMIC DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM Nguyen Thi Minh Mathematical Economic Department NEU Center for Economics Development and Public Policy Abstract: This paper empirically studies the effect of demographics on economic growth. for Vietnam. Empirical results show that in recent years, Vietnam s demographics have been changing remarkably with an increase in the labor force as well as the decrease in the dependency ratio. This change offers a great opportunity for the economy to enhance its economic growth at least in the short and medium terms. The result shows that this opportunity contributes around 15 percent of economic growth during the last five year. Vietnam population will probably change from demographic dividend to demographic debt in about 10 years. Hence it is very important for Vietnamese government to take advantage of this dividend period in order to improve human capital and technology, getting ready for the time when the period of demographic debt comes. In addition, building up a sound pension system as well as health care system in the medium term is also called for. A brief review of Vietnam demographics transition Over the last 30 years, Vietnam has been experiencing a big change in its demographics. During this period, the rate of fertility decreases dramatically from a high rate at 6.7% to 2.14% in , the same pattern is found with the rate of mortality. This is a result of the success of the family planning program and the improvement of the health care system of Vietnam as well as the innovations in medicine. In addition, life expectancy also 1

2 increases overtime. These changes in demographics in Vietnam take place at a speed that is much more quicker than the world average rate or many other Asian. The dramatic reduction in the rate of fertility in Vietnam can be seen in table 1 below Table 1: A comparison of fertility rate Period World Developed countries Less developed countries Asia Vietnam Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. Table 1 shows that Vietnam had a highest fertility rate in among country groups in the table, while today it enjoys a rate that is lower than the world average level as well as the level of ASIAN countries. The decline in fertility rate is most speedy since Together with the improvement in fertility and mortality rates, life expectancy also reveals a great improvement: 2

3 Figure 1: Life expectancy, history and projection year Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. The cumulative change in demographics results in a big change in the age structure of Vietnam s population, which can be depicted in figure 1 below: Figure 2: Age structure of Vietnam population, history and projection 3

4 percentage old ratio 0--4 >65 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. and author s calculation The picture reveals three main features of the Vietnamese demographic transition: 1. The ratio of working age (from 15-65) to total population keeps increasing until it reaches its peak at 70% in This obviously brings about potential for economic growth in one hand, and pressure on employment creation on the other hand. 2. The ratio of old people is also on an increase from 5.6% in 2006 to around 11% in This sharp increase requires a well-built plan for health care system as well as social security. 4

5 3. The ratio of young children (0-14) is decreasing and this decline is about enough to off-set the increase in the rate of population, leaving the number of young children remains unchanged or decreases a bit. Demographic dividend and demographic debt The term Demographic dividend implies features of demographics that promote economic growth, while demographic debt implies features that may impede economic growth. A common way to see if the economy is in demographic dividend period or not is to look at the dynamics of the support ratio, defined as the ratio of working-age people to total population, and dependency ratio, defined as the ratio of under 15 and above 65 to working people. A high ratio of working-age people normally would imply not only a large labor supply but also a large rate of saving and hence investment. This would promote per capita economic growth. Vise versa, a high ratio of dependent people would imply a large rate of consumption and less investment, hence impedes economic growth. The figure below depicts the dynamics of the support ratio, defined as the ratio of the number of workingage people to the number of dependent people, and the dependency ratio, measured as the ratio of the number of people either younger than 15 or older than 65 to total population. 5

6 Figure 3: Dynamics of the support ratio and dependency ratio for Vietnam 90 dependency ratio percent 60 support ratio demographic dividend demographic debt support ratio dependency ratio Source: Author s calculation from Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. Figure 3 shows that Vietnam can enjoy demographic dividend until 2018, after that will be the period of demographic debt. During the period of demographic dividend, the support ratio is raising from 50% in 1980 to 70% in This is the time for Vietnam to take advantage of the raise in labor supply and investment to accelerate economic growth and prepare for the next period when the support starts declining after

7 In this paper we are going to evaluate the impact of these change in demographics on economic growth. The structure of the paper is as follow: the next section presents the theoretical foundation and sets up the model. Section 3 estimates the actual impact of age structure on economic growth using provincial data and compares with the potential impact. Conclusions and policy recommendation conclude the report 2. Theoretical framework, empirical evidence and model setup The analysis of the effect of age structure on economic growth is based on the main idea that the role an individual plays as an economic agent in the economy varies over his or her life time. More particularly, a typical individual would play as a pure consumer when he (or she) is at young ages, then a net saver and producer when joining the labor force, and in the final stage of his life, his behavior would be something in between ( David Bloom and Canning, 2005). As such, besides having impact on economic growth via labor supply, the age structure of a population also has impact on economic growth through savings and investment ( Bloom and Williamson, 1998). Another channel through which demography can affect economic growth is human capital (Bloom and Canning, 2001a), which evidently depends on age structure of the population. Empirical evidence on the important role of demography as a determinant of economic growth is rich and can be found in developed countries as well as developing countries. (Bloom and Williamson, 1998), for example, study the effect of demography on economic growth for EU countries during the 7

8 period from 1965 to 1990 and find that almost 20% of economic growth is attributed to population dynamics. For developing countries, where population is assumed to be young, and the countries have chance to take advantage of demographic dividend, demography is also shown to have great impact on economic growth. Bloom et al. (2000), for instance, among others show that around one- third of economic growth in Asian miracle countries is assigned to age structure. China also gains from its demographic dividend over the recent years where its age structure accounts for 15-20% of its economic growth (Cai Fang and Wang Dewen, 2006). Demographics dividend only provides an opportunity for an economy to grow more quickly, it is not a sufficient condition. Appropriate policies in investment (both in physical and human capital) and job creation are called for in order to realize the opportunity. The success of Asian miracles is a good example. There are two main approaches in assessing the impact of demographics on economic growth: growth accounting and growth regression. In the growth accounting approach, a simple mathematical manipulation is applied in order to include the age structure into the model as follow (Bloom, (2005)) (Y/N) = (Y/L)(L/WA)(WA/N) (1) Where N denotes the total population, L is the labor force and WA is the working age population. Assuming that the working participant rate (L/WA) is constant, equation (1) can be rewritten as: g yn g yl gwa / N (2) 8

9 Where the letter g denotes the growth rate, yn implies per capita income and yl means per worker income. Equation (2) implies that the growth rate of income per capita can be decomposed into two components: the growth rate of income per worker and the growth rate of the ratio of working age group to total population. If income per worker (or in other words, labor productivity) were to remain the same, income per capita would grow at the rate at which the working age ratio grows. It would imply that for aging nations, where the working ratio tend to decline, income per capita would be declining, too. By the same token, for developing countries, who are experiencing a period of demographic dividend, income per capital may be rising. The growth regression approach bases on the neoclassical growth model, which states that the growth rate of income per worker at the steady state depends the value of income per worker at the steady state and some initial level of income per worker. (Bloom, 2005) g yl = a( yl* - yl 0 ) (3) Where the steady state yl* depends on factors that affect labor productivity such as human capital or capital stock per worker. Use the same manipulation as above, we can come to the following equation: g yn = b( Xβ + log(l/wa) + log(wa/n) 0 yn 0 ) + g (WA/N) (4) Where X is a set of variables that determine income per worker at the steady state. Equation (4) is the base for an econometric model that takes into account the age structure as a determinant of economic growth. 9

10 In the following section, we will present the estimated results obtained from an empirical model for equation (4) and compare it with the result obtained from growth accounting method shown in equation (2) 3. Data, econometrics model and the estimated results Data used in this work come mainly from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) for year 2002, 2004 and 2006, conducted by General Statistical Office (GSO), which provide data on demography for 61 provinces. Other macro-economic and social data come also collected from the GSO. A description of the data is presented in Table A in the Appendix. Variables of used in the analysis: 1. GDP per capital 2001: represents initial GDP per capita 2. Working ratio: the percentage of people aged between 15 and Youth ratio: the percentage of people aged under Old ratio: the percentage of people aged above Invest ratio: investment over GDP Contribution of age structure on economic growth from the growth accounting approach Using data on real GDP, population and estimated working age population for the period , we get the following figures: While income per capita increases around 48% over the period, 7% comes from the increase in the working ratio. It implies that the age structure account for about 15 percent points of per capita income growth. The same 10

11 figure found for China in period (Mason and Lee(2004) and Wang and Mason (2005)) Contribution of age structure on economic growth from the growth regression approach We follow Cai and Wang (2005) in choosing variables in the X set to include: initial per capita GDP (in the logarithm term), investment ratio and the number of midwifes per thousand of people at initial year. Table 2: Estimated result for the determinants of the growth rate of income per capita. Dependent variable: growth rate of gdp per capita explanatory variables Coef. Std. Err. P> t working ratio working ratio growth gdp per capita invest ratio _cons R N0 of observations 56(*) (*) Four provinces are excluded due to lack of data Although the R 2 is not high, implying that there are some other factors that affect economic growth not included in the model. However, the model is well specified by the Ramsey test and the obtained residuals are well behaved, and our target is not to forecast the growth rate but to evaluate the impact of demography on economic growth, hence the relatively low R 2 is not a great concern. 11

12 Table 2 shows that age structure is a significant determinant of economic growth: the estimated coefficients on both the ratio of working people and its growth rate are significantly positive. The coefficient implies that each percent increase in the working ratio will follow by nearly one percent increase in per capita income. During the period of study, on average, the working ratio increase by 1.7 percent, leading to an increase of 1.6 percent. With the annual per capita income grows at 11%, it means that the age structure accounts for around 14% of the economic growth. The result is in line with the figure obtained from the growth accounting calculation above. Equivalently, the working ratio in the above model can be replaced by the dependency ratio, which is defined as the ratio of people either younger than 15 or older than 65, which is done by many authors (Cai and Wang (2006), for example). Instead of dependency ratio as in Cai and Wang (2006), we decompose it into two ratios: the youth ratio and the old ratio. Where the former is defined as the ratio of people who are under 15 years of age and the latter are older than 65. The reason we decompose the dependency ratio into the two ratio is this: the effect of old people and the young people on economic growth maybe different from each other: while many old people are financially independent and have not much effect on the behavior of working people, the young people do. The model then is: g yp a 0 a workingr ratio a invest ratio u a youth rati growth 2 a 3 old ratio growth a 4 gdp 0 12

13 Table 3: Estimated result for the determinants of the growth rate of income per capita. Dependent variable: growth rate of gdp per capita explanatory variables Coef. Std. Err. P> t working ratio youth ratio growth old ratio growth gdp per capita invest ratio _cons R N0 of observations 57 Table 3 shows that even both young and old people are categorized as the dependent in the literature of demographics, the impact they have on economic growth is different: while youth ratio is shown to have a clear impact on economic growth, the old is not. The possible explanation for that is this: the hypothesis that the old consume more and save less may be true in countries with a good social security system where old people can be granted a reasonable income to live, it may not be true in Vietnam. In addition, they may not be such a burden for other members in their family that force workers to work more while the youth is. 4. Concluding remarks: During the last 30 years, Vietnam had a demographic advantage in term of age structure Due to the lack of data before the year 2000, we only can be able to empirically examine the ability of the economy in realizing this 13

14 advantage during period. The result shows that Vietnam had been returning this advantage into reality during the study period. This is consistent with a fact that during this period of time, Vietnam has been opening up the economy, integrating more deeply into the world economy. As a result, more flow of foreign investment comes in, economic condition and institutions have been improved. All of these help utilize any potential source of growth, including the demographic dividend The prediction from Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat shows that Vietnam continues to enjoy the period of demographic dividend for another decade. On the one hand, it implies that more pressure on job creation. A recent speeding process of urbanization, in which many farmers lose their cultivating land and not yet get prepared for shifting job, may create more concern. On the other hand, this means that Vietnam can be able to enjoy the advantage of low labor cost for a while, to fully take advantage of this, labor market should be improved in terms of information and mobilization. After about 10 years, Vietnam economy will depend strongly on the improvement in human capital and technological progress as there is no longer demographic dividend. As such investment in education and R&D is of much important. The number of old people as well as the percentage of is going to rise sharply after The government needs to establish a sound pension system in order to smooth the transition of the economy when moving from demographic dividend to demographic debt period 14

15 Reference: Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee, The demographic dividend and poverty reduction, Seminar on the Relevance of Population Aspects or the Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, Paper No. UN/POP/PD/2004/19, New York, NY, November 17-19, 2004 Bloom, D. E. and J. G. Williamson Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review 12(3): Bloom D, Canning D, Malaney P (2000). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Population and Development Review, 26: Bloom, D. E. and D. Canning (2001.) "Cumulative causality, economic growth, and the demographic transition. In: N. Birdsall, A. Kelley, and S. Sinding. (eds.) Population Matters: Demographic Change, EconomicGrowth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp Bloom, D.E and D. Canning (2005) Global demographic change: dimensions and economic significance Harvard Working Paper no 1, Cai Fang and Wang Dewen. (2006) Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China Paper prepared for the presentation at the International 15

16 conference on the Dragon and the Elephant: China and India s Economic Reform, July 1st-July 2nd, 2006, Shanghai, China Feyrer, J. D. (2002). Demographics and productivity. Mimeo, Dartmouth College Wang Feng and Andrew Mason, "Demographic Dividend and Prospects for Economic Development in China", United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure, Mexico City, August 31-September 2. APPENDIX Table A: Sample statistics of variables in the data set. Variables Mean Standard Error Standard Deviation Minimum Maximum gdp population invest/gdp youth ratio old ratio working ratio working ratio growth youth ratiogrowth midwives/pop

17 .. 17