NEPAL'S DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES. Trilochan Pokharel Nepal Administrative Staff College

Transcription

1 NEPAL'S DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES Trilochan Pokharel Nepal Administrative Staff College

2 Presentation Outline 2 1. Key highlights of Nepal based on different sources 2. Future demographic discourse 3. Conclusion

3 Total Population of Nepal Population ('000)

4 Population trend of developing countries 8 7 Population (Billion) Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

5 Population Growth Rate 5 Annual Exponential PGR

6 Growth rate analysis 6 Corresponding demographic indicators around 1.4 % GR (2013) Country CBR CPR e 0 IMR % Urban Nepal Malaysia Iran India Bhutan Sri Lanka Kuwait Bangladesh Source: PRB, 2013.

7 Demographic Transition 7 C B R & C D R Birth Rate Death Rate

8 Age structure (1965 vs 2000) Male Source: Pokharel, Percentages Female

9 Age structure (1965 vs 2030) Male Female Percentages Source: Pokharel, 2008.

10 Age structure (NHDS 2011) Males Nepal 2000 (shaded) & Nepal 2011 Females Percentages

11 NDHS 2011 & NAYS Males NDHS 2011 (shaded) & NAYS 2012 Females Percentages

12 Demographic dividend 12 Share of population (%) Windows of opportunity Year Source: Pokharel, 2008.

13 Dependency ratio 13 Dependecy Ratio Total dependency ratio Child dependency ratio Old dependency ratio Year

14 Sex ratio 14 Source Males per 100 females NDHS NHDS Census NLSS 2010/11 86 NDHS 2011 (Urban) 93 NDHS 2011 (Rural) 84 Census 2011 (Mountain) 94 Census 2011 (Hill) 92 Census 2011 (Terai ) 97 NAYS (2012) 98

15 Average HH size 15

16 Absentee population pattern (Census 2011) 16 Far Western Mid Western Western Central Eastern Terai Hill Mountain Rural Urban Female Male Source: CBS, 2013.

17 Age, sex and migration (NDHS 2011) Male Female Total <

18 18 Growth rate and absentee population by district (Census 2011) Source: CBS, 2013.

19 % of hh receiving remittance (NLSS) / / /11 Source: CBS, 2011.

20 Fertility Analysis Source: NDHS, 2012.

21 TFR Source: NDHS, 2012.

22 Caste/ethnic differential in fertility 22 Ethnic Groups NHFS 1996 NDHS 2001 NDHS 2006 % decline Hill Hindu Janajaties/Na tionalities Tarai Hindu Newar Muslim Dalits Nepal Source: Pokharel 2012.

23 % change in TFR

24 FP and fertility 24 3 births reduced by FP during 1976 (TFR 6.33) to 2011 (TFR 2.6) accounting 80% of 3.73 births Approximately 646,000 births are averted by FP methods

25 Role of FP in birth control 25 FP Methods No of births averted % Female sterilization Male Injectables Implants Pills Condom IUD Traditional methods Total Source: Pokharel 2011.

26 Wealth Index and CEB Percent Poorest Poorer Middle Richer Richest 2 and less CEB 3 to 5 CEB 6 and more CEB Source: Pokharel, Wealth Quintile

27 Male-female differences in GSE 27 Source: Pokharel, 2012.

28 Male-female difference in life expectancy 28 Source: Pokharel, 2012.

29 HDI-GDI difference 29 Source: Pokharel, 2012.

30 Determinants of fertility (Regression coefficient) 30 Variables Women Aged Standardized Women Aged Standardized Women Aged Standardized All Women Standardized Wealth index *** *** *** Wife s employment status Not employed (R) Employed ** *** Wife s employment place At home (R) Away from home Wife s education (in single years) *** *** *** *** Husband s employment status Not employed (R) Employed 0.060*** Source: Pokharel, 2012.

31 1< mortality Neonatal Post Neonatal Infant Source: NDHS, 2012.

32 Education and IMR No education Primary Some secondary SLC and above Source: Pokharel, 2012.

33 Wealth Index and IMR Lowest Second Middle Fourth Highest Source: Pokharel, 2012.

34 IMR Mothers age at birth (IMR=69 for <20 years) Birth interval (IMR=87 for <2 years) Birth size (IMR=65 for small/very small) Source: Pokharel, 2012.

35 Future demographic discourse 35 Demographic component Fertility Aspects that shape Economic variables (escaping from cultural factors) Migration IMR Women's education Women's autonomy and empowerment Quality vs quantity debate (including opportunity costs) Mortality/morbidity Public health Nutrition and food behaviour IMR and MMR Healthy living Prospective life Adolescent's and youth sexual behaviour 1

36 Future Demographic component Aspect that shape Migration Demographic structure Socio-economic development (Financial and social remittance) Family structure and relation (power balance, access and control in resources) Migration streams/volumes and counter stream Returnees Resource distribution and opportunity sharing

37 Conclusion 37 Decomposed analysis of demographic components required - unbundling the macro analysis into micro Relation of demographic behaviours with social, economic and cultural behaviours- process dynamics Demographic auditing of development policy, plans programmes and activities - putting population issues at centre

38 Conclusion Delinking demographic issues from other disciplinary domain - rescuing population issues from shadow and mainstreaming Re-linking demographic issues as cross-cutting issues - mainstreaming population issues in development activities

39 39 Thank you for your patient