Utah s Long Run Demographic Trends: Evolving Community Contexts

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1 Utah s Long Run Demographic Trends: Evolving Community Contexts Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah

2 GROWTH

3 Intermountain States Population: Arizona Colorado 749,587 1,325,089 Millions of Population Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming 588, , , , , ,

4 Intermountain States Population: Arizona Colorado 6,392,017 5,029,196 Millions of Population Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming 1,566, ,415 2,700,551 2,059,179 2,763, ,

5 Total Population with Million Markers 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,827,810 5,500, ,000,000 4,500, ,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Total Population Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

6 Projected Percent Growth by Decade: Utah and the United States 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 16.63% 14.50% 12.87% 12.00% 11.03% 10.00% 9.69% 8.00% 7.52% 6.93% 6.00% 4.00% 5.48% 4.55% 4.43% 2.00% 0.00% U.S. Utah Sources: Census Bureau National Projections; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

7 URBANIZATION

8 Urban Growth: Utah is an Urban State with Urban Issues 100% 90% 91% 80% Percent of the Population 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 9% 0%

9 Total Population by County: 2065 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

10 County s Share of State Population: 2065 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

11 Absolute Population Change by County: Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

12 Percent Population Change by County: Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

13 MIGRATION AS A DRIVER

14 State of Utah Components of Change: Historical and Projected 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Net Migration Natural Increase Growth

15 Utah Population Change Natural Increase, 65% Net Migration, 35% Foreign Born, 45% Native Born, 55% Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

16 Utah s Foreign Born Population: 2015 Oceania 3.4% Africa 3.4% Northern America 3.3% Europe 9.3% Central America 6.8% Caribbean 1.8% Asia 20.0% Latin America 60.5% South America 9.6% Mexico 42.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates: C05006.

17 FOLLOWING NATIONAL TRENDS

18 Utah: Trend Toward Nation Utah 2.29 Total Fertility Rates U.S Source: NCHS - National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 64, Number 1 January 15, 2015

19 Utah: Trend Toward Nation Household Size Utah U.S. Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey

20 Utah: Trend Toward Nation 40.0 Median Age Utah U.S. Source: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

21 Utah: Trend Toward Nation 45% 40% 35% 30% Minority Share 38.4% 25% 20% 21.0% 15% 10% 11.4% 5% 0% 1.9% Utah U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates

22 Utah: Trend Toward Nation Female Age at First Marriage Utah U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey.

23 Utah: Trend Toward Nation 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Share of Households: Opposite Sex Married Couple with Children 48% 40% 30% 19% 10% 0% Utah U.S. Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey: S0201.

24 GENERATIONAL SHIFT

25 2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers 5,000,000 United States 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Generation Z (after 2000) 60.1 million Millennials ( ) 82.8 million Generation X ( ) 69.8 million Baby Boomers ( ) 74.9 million Silent Generation ( ) 26.3 million Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 4.6 million Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

26 2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers 60,000 Utah 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 35,708 10,000 Generation Z (after 2000) 767,523 Millennials ( ) 877,693 Generation X ( ) 629,214 Baby Boomers ( ) 514,533 Silent Generation ( ) 166, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

27 129 Languages

28 Minority Share by Age Group: % 80% 70% 60% 50% Westside SLC Salt Lake City US Salt Lake County Utah 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census.

29 Minority Share of the Population: U.S., Utah, & Salt Lake County & City 60% 50% 40% 30% U.S. State of Utah Salt Lake County Salt Lake City 20% 10% 0% Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

30 Mixed Heritage: America in 2050 Source: National Geographic

31 HOSANNA MARSHALL, 32, NEW YORK, NEW YORK SELF-ID: African American, Native American, white, and Jewish CENSUS BOXES CHECKED: black

32 NEIGHBORHOOD DIVERSITY

33 % of Pop Age 25+: Less Than High School

34 % of Pop Age 25+: Less Than High School

35 % Minorities

36 % Households Below Poverty

37 Adults Reporting Fair or Poor Health Glendale 30.9% Foothill 7.1%

38 Life Expectancy at Birth Foothill 85 Glendale 75.8

39 Neighborhoods

40 AGING POPULATION

41 Selected Age Groups as a Percent of Total Population: % 90% 1.26% 1.49% 2.26% 3.18% 3.31% 4.01% 8.92% 12.00% 12.79% 13.69% 15.73% 16.25% 80% 70% 60% 48.97% 48.32% 49.35% 48.52% 47.33% 47.05% 50% 40% 30% 10.11% 10.40% 9.18% 8.89% 8.99% 8.57% 20% 10% 0% 22.25% 19.87% 18.64% 18.41% 17.60% 17.10% 8.48% 7.92% 7.78% 7.31% 7.04% 7.02% Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

42 100 U.S. Dependency Ratios: Aging Baby Boomer Drive Increase in Total Youth Retirement Age Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Population Division data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18-64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.

43 Utah Dependency Ratios: Youth Dependency Ratios Decline and Stabilize Youth Retirement Age Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18-64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.

44 Utah Population Pyramid: 1960, 2015, & Male Projection Female Projection 96 Male Female Male Female ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+ Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, DemographyUTAH Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State Projections

45 SCHOOL & COLLEGE AGE

46 Utah: School Age (5-17) and College Age (18-24) Population Estimates and Projections 1,000, , ,000 School Age (5 17) Estimate College Age (18 24) Estimate School Age (5 17) Projection College Age (18 24) Estimate 700, , , , , , , Sources: : Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: ; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State and County Projections

47 Historical Births Series: Utah and the United States 5,000,000 U.S. Peak (1957, 4.31 million) U.S. Peak (2007, 4.32 million) 100,000 4,000,000 80,000 U.S Births 3,000,000 2,000,000 Utah Peak ( , Over 41,000) Utah Peak (2008, 55,357) 60,000 40,000 Utah Births 1,000,000 20, U.S. Utah Sources: National Center for Health Statistics; Utah Department of Health

48 Utah Cumulative Births 1,000, , years ago (Estimate) 5-17 years ago (Projection) years ago (Estimate) years ago (Projection) 800, , , , , , , , Sources: : Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: ; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Draft County Projections

49 Utah Births Analysis: School Age and College Age Population Estimates, Projections, and corresponding births 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 0 School Age (5 17) Estimate School Age (5 17) Projection Births 5-17 years ago College Age (18 24) Estimate College Age (18 24) Projection Births years ago Sources: : Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: ; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Draft County Projections

50 Annual Absolute and Percent Growth School Age Population (5-17) 18,000 15,000 12,000 Annual Growth Annual Growth Projection % Annual Growth % Annual Growth Projection 6% 5% 4% 9,000 3% 6,000 2% 3,000 1% 0 0% -3, Sources: : Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: ; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Draft County Projections -1%

51 Annual Absolute and Percent Growth College Age Population (18-24) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Annual Growth Annual Growth Projection % Annual Growth % Annual Growth Projection 12% 10% 8% 6% 10,000 4% 5,000 2% 0 0% -5,000-2% -10, % Sources: : Governor s Office of Planning and Budget, Population estimates by sex and single year of age: ; 1990 to 2009: Governor s Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Baseline Projections; 2010 to 2065: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Draft County Projections

52 The New Utah

53 Thank you Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah gardner.utah.edu Voice: Fax:

54 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute David Eccles School of Business 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT gardner.utah.edu Facebook.com/gardnerpolicyinstitute Twitter.com/KemGardnerInst

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