Population Change in the United States

Transcription

1 Population Change in the United States

2

3 Steve H. Murdock Michael E. Cline Mary Zey Deborah Perez P. Wilner Jeanty Population Change in the United States Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities in the Twenty-First Century

4 Steve H. Murdock Hobby Center & Department of Sociology Rice University Houston, Texas, USA Mary Zey University of Texas at San Antonio San Antonio, Texas, USA Michael E. Cline Hobby Ctr. for the Study of Texas Rice University Houston, Texas, USA Deborah Perez Alexandria, Virginia, USA P. Wilner Jeanty Verizon Wireless Hilliard, Ohio, USA ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Dordrecht is part of Springer Science+Business Media (

5 We dedicate this book to our children and grandchildren and to the nation that they will inherit.

6

7 Acknowledgments We express our appreciation to the Meadows and Greater Texas Foundations for their support which enabled us to complete the work included in this volume. We also thank William P. Hobby Jr. for his past and continued support of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas. We express our sincere appreciation to our technical editor, Karen White, for her skillful editing of the volume. We also thank Evelien Bakker and Bernadette Deelen-Mans from Springer for their support, encouragement, and technical guidance during the preparation of this volume. vii

8

9 Contents 1 Introduction The Rationale for the Work Conceptual Basis for the Work The State of Knowledge: Population, Education and Socioeconomic Change Growth in Minority Populations Race/Ethnicity and Education Education, Income, and Socioeconomic Change The Current Demographic Context The Intended Audience for, and Focus of, the Work The Content of the Volume Inherent Limitations of the Methodology Underlying the Work Summary References Historic and Projected Patterns of Population and Household Change in the United States Historic Patterns of Population Change Selected Characteristics of the Population of the United States Projections of the Population of the United States Historic and Projected Patterns of Household Change Summary References Effects of Population Change on the Size and Characteristics of the Labor Force of the United States Current Characteristics and Recent Trends in the Labor Force of the United States ix

10 x Contents 3.2 Future Characteristics of the Labor Force of the United States A Diverse Labor Force Also Differentiated by Age and Gender Socioeconomic Characteristics of the Workforce Summary References Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Economic Factors Impacting the Public and Private Sectors in the United States Historical Change in Income and Poverty Fiscal Impacts of Household Income Change Projected Effects of Household Change on the Future Economic Characteristics of the United States Summary References Impacts of Future Demographic Change on Education in the United States Historic Characteristics of Students and Education in the United States Future Educational Characteristics Financing Public Education in the United States Summary References Implications of Population Change for Health, Health Care, and Public Assistance Programs in the United States Change in the Incidence and Demographic Characteristics of Persons with Diseases/Disorders in the United States, Prevalence of Disabilities Health Care Personnel, Health Care Services, and Uninsured Persons Social Service Usage: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) Summary References The Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Transportation Services and Demand Historic Changes in Licensed Drivers Vehicle Ownership

11 Contents xi 7.3 Effects of Future Demographic Change on Future Transportation Use Age Effects on Transportation Impact of Demographic Change on Vehicle Ownership Impact of Demographic Change on Worker s Modes of Commuting Alternative Projection Scenarios Summary References Summary and Implications Summary Chapters 1 and 2: Historical and Projected Population and Household Patterns Chapter 3: Labor Force Chapter 4: Income and Poverty: Implications for Household Wealth, Consumer Expenditures, Home Ownership, Net Worth, and Tax Revenues Chapter 5: Impacts of Demographic Change on Education in the United States Chapter 6: Health and Health Care and Social Services in the United States Chapter 7: Transportation The Implications of an Alternative Future Addressing the Socioeconomic Differences Among Racial/Ethnic Groups in the United States The Current Demographic State of Minority Populations in the United States Can We Obtain Desired Socioeconomic Growth Rates if Recent Relationships to Race/Ethnicity Specific Patterns Continue into the Future? Maintaining the Socioeconomic Base of America Conclusion References

12

13 List of Figures Fig. 8.1 Fig. 8.2 Fig. 8.3 Fig. 8.4 Percent change in socioeconomic resources compared to percent change in households, Per capita income, mean household income, and mean consumer expenditures per household in 2060 under alternative assumptions of socioeconomic closure between minority and nonhispanic White households Percent persons in the labor force in management/professional and operative/laborer positions, persons in poverty, and levels of educational attainment under alternative assumptions of closure between racial/ethnic groups in the United States by Aggregate income, consumer expenditures, and federal tax revenue from households in 2060 (in billions of 2010 constant dollars) under alternative assumptions of socioeconomic closure between minority and nonhispanic White households xiii

14

15 List of Tables Table 1.1 Median household income in the United States by age, household type, and race/ethnicity of householder, Table 2.1 Population change in the United States by components of change, Table 2.2 Immigration into the United States by period and area of origin of immigrants, Table 2.3 Birth, death, and net migration measures for the United States, Table 2.4 Median age and sex ratio in the United States, Table 2.5 United States population in 1990, 2000, and 2010, percent change in population for and , and proportion of the population by race/ethnicity for 1990, 2000, and Table 2.6 Number and percentage of households by persons in the household and average household size for the United States, (numbers in thousands) Table 2.7 Population in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2000 and 2010 and projected to 2060 under alternative projection scenarios Table 2.8 Percent change in the population in the United States by race/ethnicity from 2000 to 2010 and projected to 2060 under alternative projection scenarios Table 2.9 Percentage of the population by race/ethnicity in the United States for 2000 and 2010 and projected to 2060 under alternative projection scenarios Table 2.10 Number and percent of net change in the United States population due to each race/ethnicity group under alternative projection scenarios, xv

16 xvi List of Tables Table 2.11 U.S. Census Bureau projections of the percentage of the population in the United States by age and race/ethnicity for 2010 and projected to 2060 under alternative projection scenarios Table 2.12 Number and percentage of households and percent change in households in the United States by race/ethnicity of the householder, Table 2.13 Number, percentage of, and percent change in households by size and type, Table 2.14 Number of households in the United States by race/ethnicity of the householder and projected to 2060 under alternative projection scenarios Table 2.15 Percent change in households in the United States by race/ethnicity of the householder and projected to 2060 under alternative projection scenarios Table 2.16 Percent of total households in the United States by race/ethnicity from 2010 to 2060 under alternative scenarios Table 2.17 Number and percent of net change in United States households due to each race/ethnicity group under alternative projection scenarios, Table 2.18 Percent of total households in the United States by age and race/ethnicity using the middle projection scenario Table 2.19 Number and percentage of households in the United States by type of household and race/ethnicity of the householder in 2010 and projected for 2060 under the middle projection scenario Table 3.1 Civilian labor force in the United States, (annual averages in thousands) Table 3.2 Characteristics of the civilian labor force in the United States, (decennial census and annual averages in thousands) Table 3.3 Civilian labor force participation rates in the United States by sex, age, and race/ethnicity, civilian labor force, 2000 and 2010, and percent change in labor force, Table 3.4 Projections of the civilian labor force in the United States from 2010 to 2060 by race/ethnicity under alternative scenarios Table 3.5 Percent of the civilian labor force in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected through 2060 under alternative scenarios (percentage within year)... 48

17 List of Tables Table 3.6 Table 3.7 Table 3.8 Table 3.9 Table 3.10 Table 3.11 Table 3.12 Table 3.13 Table 3.14 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 xvii Percent change in the civilian labor force in the United States from 2010 to 2060 by race/ethnicity under alternative scenarios Number and percentage of net change in the civilian labor force in the United States due to each race/ethnicity under alternative scenarios, Percentage of civilian labor force in the United States by year, age, and race/ethnicity from using the middle projection scenario Projections of the civilian labor force in the United States by sex and race/ethnicity from 2010 to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Civilian labor force in the United States by level of education and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario (percentages computed within race/ethnicity group) Civilian labor force in the United States by level of education and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario (percentages computed within level of educational attainment) Civilian labor force in the United States by occupation and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projections for 2060 using the middle projection scenario (percentages computed within occupations) Wage and salary income of the civilian labor force in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projections for 2060 (in 2010 constant dollars) using the middle projection scenario (percentages computed by race/ethnicity group) Wage and salary income of civilian labor force in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projections for 2060 (in constant dollars) using the middle projection scenario (percentages computed within income group) Median household income, per capita income, and percentage of persons in poverty in the United States, Income and poverty characteristics of the population in the United States by race/ethnicity Federal government receipts in the United States, 2000 and Federal government expenditures in the United States, 2000 and

18 xviii Table 4.5 Table 4.6 Table 4.7 Table 4.8 Table 4.9 Table 4.10 Table 4.11 Table 4.12 Table 4.13 Table 4.14 Table 4.15 List of Tables Household income in the United States by income group and race/ethnicity of householder in 2010 and projected for 2060 under the middle projection scenario (percentages computed within race/ethnicity group) Aggregate and mean household income in the United States (in billions of 2010 dollars) by race/ethnicity of the householder in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario (Panel A) and assuming alternative closure to 2010 nonhispanic White rates by 2060 (Panel B) Number and percentage of households in poverty in the United States by household type and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Number and percentage of households in poverty in the United States by household type and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Federal tax revenues by household income in the United States (in millions of 2010 dollars) in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Consumer expenditures by category in the United States in 2010 (in millions of 2010 dollars) and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Percentage of consumer expenditures by category and race/ethnicity of householder in the United States in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Percentage of net change in consumer expenditures in the United States by expenditure category and race/ethnicity using the middle projection scenario, Consumer expenditures by household type and expenditure category in the United States in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario (in millions of 2010 dollars) Percent change in consumer expenditures by household type and expenditure category in the United States using the middle projection scenario, Race/ethnicity and age of householder effects on estimates of net worth and assets for households in the United States in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario... 79

19 List of Tables Table 4.16 Table 4.17 Table 4.18 Table 4.19 Table 4.20 Table 4.21 Table 4.22 Table 4.23 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 xix Proportions of net worth and assets of households in the United States by race/ethnicity (Panel A) and age (Panel B) of householder in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Race/ethnicity and age of householder effects on estimates of net worth and assets for households in the United States in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Median owner-occupied housing values, median monthly rents, ownership rates, and renter rates in the United States by race/ethnicity of householder, and tenure by age of householder, Number of households in the United States, percent change , and percentage of households by race/ethnicity of householder and housing tenure in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Number and percentage of net change in the United States households by race/ethnicity of householder and housing tenure using the middle projection scenario, Aggregate annual expenditures and percentage of annual expenditures for housing in the United States by race/ethnicity of the householder and housing tenure in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Proportion of annual expenditures for housing in the United States by age of householder and housing tenure in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Annual expenditures for housing in the United States by tenure in 2060 assuming projected patterns by race/ethnicity and age of householder and assuming 2010 distribution by race/ethnicity and age of householder using the middle projection scenario Enrollment (in thousands) and percent change in enrollment of U.S. residents enrolled in public elementary and secondary schools and colleges, Enrollment percentages and percent change in enrollment by race/ethnicity for public elementary and secondary schools and public community colleges and universities, Percentage of population 25 years of age and older in the United States who are high school graduates and higher or college graduates and higher by race/ethnicity, 2000 and

20 xx Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9 Table 5.10 Table 5.11 Table 5.12 Table 5.13 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 List of Tables Public community college and university enrollment rates (per 100 persons ages 18 35) in the United States by race/ethnicity, 2000 and Educational attainment by race/ethnicity for the United States population age 25 and older in Total (in millions of 2010 dollars) and per student expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools and public colleges and universities and percent change in expenditures, Total public education (all levels) enrollment (in thousands) by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Percent change in projected total public education (all levels) enrollment in the United States by race/ethnicity under the middle projection scenario, Percentage of total public education (all levels) enrollment by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Public education expenditures (in millions of 2010 dollars) in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Number (in thousands) of students with financial need unmet by household resources enrolled at public colleges and universities in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Percent change in projected number of students with financial need unmet by household resources enrolled in public colleges and universities in the United States in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Students enrolled in public colleges and universities (in thousands) with unmet financial need by need category and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Incidences of diseases/disorders and percent change in incidences of diseases/disorders in the United States by race/ethnicity for 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Prevalence of selected diseases/disorders in the United States by race/ethnicity and type of diseases/disorders for adults (18 years and older) in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario (percentages within disease/disorder)

21 List of Tables Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 6.6 Table 6.7 Table 6.8 Table 6.9 Table 6.10 Table 6.11 Table 6.12 Table 6.13 xxi Prevalence of conditions associated with disabilities in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Health-care personnel in the United States by specialty and race/ethnicity in 2010 (actual) and simulated to reflect 2010 and projected 2060 population distribution by race/ethnicity using the middle projection scenario Persons in the United States enrolled in health-related institutions by race/ethnicity in 2010 and numeric and percent change in projected enrollment to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Projected enrollment of United States residents in United States health related institutions by race/ethnicity in 2060 using alternative enrollment rate assumptions Physician contacts and days of hospital care in the United States by age of patient and associated costs for 2010 (in thousands) and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Number of nursing home residents in the United States by age of patient and associated costs for 2010 (in thousands of dollars) and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Enrollment and change in enrollment (in thousands), federal and state expenditures (in millions of 2010 dollars), and per recipient costs in Medicaid programs, the Children s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Medicare in the United States, Medicaid/CHIP recipients, percent change in projected recipients, percent recipients by race/ethnicity, and net change in recipients in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Medicare beneficiaries, percent change in projected beneficiaries, percent beneficiaries by race/ethnicity, and net change in beneficiaries in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Total costs (in millions of 2010 constant dollars) for CHIP/Medicaid and Medicare by race/ethnicity of recipients in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Medically uninsured in the United States by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario and without implementation of the Affordable Care Act

22 xxii Table 6.14 Table 6.15 Table 6.16 Table 6.17 Table 6.18 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 7.4 Table 7.5 Table 7.6 Table 7.7 Table 7.8 Table 7.9 List of Tables Enrollment and change in enrollment (monthly in thousands), expenditures (in millions of 2010 dollars), and per recipient costs in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) in the United States, TANF enrollment in the United States, percent change in projected enrollment, percent enrollment by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario SNAP recipients in the United States, percent change in projected recipients, percent of recipients by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Number and percent of net change in enrollment in TANF and SNAP by race/ethnicity, using the middle projection scenario Total costs (in 2010 constant dollars) for TANF and SNAP by race/ethnicity of recipients in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Total population, total licensed drivers, licensed drivers per 1,000 people in the United States and percent change, Licensed drivers by age and numeric and percent change in licensed drivers by age, Households and households without vehicles in the United States in 2000 and Percent of all United States commuters by transportation mode on the journey to work, 2000 and Projected number of licensed drivers in the United States by race/ethnicity and year using the middle projection scenario Population, licensed drivers, and yearly vehicle miles of travel (in billions) in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Number of licensed drivers in the United States by age and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Percentage of licensed drivers by age and race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario (percentages within race/ethnicity and within age) Drivers involved in crashes by age and severity of crash in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario

23 List of Tables Table 7.10 Table 7.11 Table 7.12 Table 7.13 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 8.4 Table 8.5 Table 8.6 Table 8.7 xxiii Households and households without vehicles in 2010 and projected for 2060 using the middle projection scenario Journey to work by race/ethnicity of commuter and transportation mode in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Journey to work mode as a percent of all commuters by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected to 2060 using the middle projection scenario Drivers, vehicle ownership, and commute mode in 2060 using alternative rate assumptions Mean household income by race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and occupation in Median, mean, and per capita income levels (in 2010 dollars) by race/ethnicity for and percent change for , , , average change for the three decades, and the largest decade growth for any period from 1980 to Number and percent persons 25 years of age and older in the United States by race/ethnicity and educational level, , and change for , , , average percent change , and largest decade percent change Number and percent of persons 25 years of age and older in the United States by race/ethnicity and occupation, , , , average percent change , and largest decade percent change Median, mean, per capita, and aggregate income levels (in 2010 dollars) by race/ethnicity in 2010 and projected through 2060 assuming average percent change for the three decades between 1980 and 2010, largest percent change for any decade, and percent change for the decade Educational attainment levels by race/ethnicity for persons 25 years of age and older in 2010 and projected through 2060 assuming average percent change for the three decade between 1980 and 2010, largest percent change for any decade, and percent change for the decade Occupation by race/ethnicity for persons 25 years of age and older in 2010 and projected through 2060 assuming average percent change for the three decades between 1980 and 2010, largest percent change for any decade, and percent change for the decade

24 xxiv Table 8.8 List of Tables Selected socioeconomic characteristics of the United States population in 2010, projections for 2060 assuming 2010 rates, projections for 2060 assuming the average rates of change by race/ethnicity for the three decades between 1980 and 2010, and projections for 2060 assuming closure of projected minority rates to projected nonhispanic White rates by