Loudoun 2040 Fiscal Impact Analysis Report Loudoun County, Virginia

Transcription

1 Loudoun 2040 Fiscal Impact Analysis Report Loudoun County, Virginia Submitted to: Loudoun County, Virginia July 6, Sangamore Road Suite S240 Bethesda, Maryland

2 TischlerBise 4701 Sangamore Road Suite S240 Bethesda, Maryland July 2018

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Executive Summary... 1 Metrorail Tax Districts... 6 II. Introduction to the Analysis... 8 Overview of Methodology... 8 Flexible Design... 8 Forecast Period... 9 Geographic Analysis... 9 Revised General Plan Policy Areas... 9 III. Growth Scenarios Evaluated IV. Fiscal Impact Analysis Results Countywide Results Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario Suburban Policy Area Results Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario Transition Policy Area Results Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario Towns, Joint Land Management Area (JLMAs), and Rural Policy Area Results Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario Results for the Metrorail Tax Districts Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario Ashburn Station Service District Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Growth Projections Cumulative Fiscal Results Revised General Plan vs. Scenario i

4 V. Major Assumptions and Methodologies Methodology Fiscal Year 2016 Actuals Level of Service Inflation Rate VI. Revenue Detail Revenue Methodologies General Fund Revenues Special Revenue Funds Revenue Outputs Revenue Projections VII. Expenditure Detail Operating Expenditure Methodologies Expenditure Outputs Capital Expenditure Methodologies Allocation of Costs to both Nonresidential and Residential Development Capital Expenditure Outputs Appendix A: Additional Tables Countywide Multi-Year Intervals Countywide Capital Needs List Suburban Policy Area Multi-Year Intervals Transition Policy Area Multi-Year Intervals Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Multi-Year Intervals Metrorail Service District Multi-Year Intervals Ashburn Station Service Districts Multi-Year Intervals Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service Districts Multi-Year Intervals Appendix B: Development Characteristics by Product type Residential Product Types Nonresidential Product Types Vacant Land Appendix C: Capital Facility Needs and Offsetting Revenues Capital Needs Estimated Land Needed for Capital Facilities Capital Costs Allocating Costs to Nonresidential as well as Residential Development Proffers and Other Revenues Available to Pay for Capital Costs ii

5 Capital Costs from By-Right Residential Development Capital Facility and Infrastructure Deficits Appendix D: Capital Facility Standards Appendix E: Maps iii

6 List of Figures Figure 1. Summary of Countywide Cumulative Growth... 2 Figure 2. Countywide Cumulative Fiscal Impact... 3 Figure 3. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide... 3 Figure 4. Summary Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP... 4 Figure 5. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide... 5 Figure 6. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact by Policy Area... 5 Figure 7. Countywide Metrorail Service District and Station Service District Tax Base and Tax Revenue... 6 Figure 8. Cumulative Metrorail Service District and Station Service District Tax Base... 7 Figure 9. Cumulative Metrorail Service District Tax Revenue... 7 Figure 10. Policy Area Map Figure 11. Metrorail Tax District Map Figure 12. Model Fiscal Analysis Zones (FAZ) Figure 13. Scenario 1 Growth Projections Figure 14. Scenario 2 Growth Projections Figure 15. Scenario 3 Growth Projections Figure 16. Scenario 4 Growth Projections Figure 18. Countywide Growth Projections Figure 19. New Residential Units by Type: Scenario 1 Countywide Figure 20. New Residential Units by Type: Scenario 3 Countywide Figure 21. New Residential Units by Type: Scenario 1 and 3 Countywide Comparison Figure 22. Population Projection by Scenario: Countywide Figure 23. School Enrollment Projection by Scenario: Countywide Figure 24. New Nonresidential Square Feet by Type: Scenario 1 Countywide Figure 25. New Nonresidential Square Feet by Type: Scenario 3 Countywide Figure 26. New Nonresidential Square Feet by Type: Scenario 1 and 3 Countywide Comparison Figure 27. Employment Projection by Scenario: Countywide Figure 28: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 29: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 30. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 31. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide Figure 32. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 33. School Capital Facility Needs Figure 34. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Figure 36. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 37. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide Figure 38. Policy Area Map Figure 39. Suburban Policy Area Growth Projections Figure 40: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 41: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 42. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 43. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Suburban Policy Area Figure 44. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 45. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities iv

7 Figure 46. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 47. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Suburban Policy Area Figure 48. Transition Policy Area Growth Projections Figure 49: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 50: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 51. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 52. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Transition Policy Area Figure 53. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 54. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Figure 55. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 56. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Transition Policy Area Figure 57. Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area Growth Projections Figure 58: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 59: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 60. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 61. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area Figure 62. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 63. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Figure 64. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 65. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area Figure 66. Metrorail Service District and Station Service Districts Map Figure 67. Metrorail Service District Growth Projections Figure 68: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 69: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 70. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 71. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Metrorail Service District Figure 72. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 73. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Figure 74. Metrorail Service District and Metro Station District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Figure 75. Metrorail Service District Tax Base Figure 76. Metrorail Service District Tax Revenue Figure 77. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 78. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Metrorail Service District Figure 79. Ashburn Station Service District Growth Projections Figure 80: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 81: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 82. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 83. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Ashburn Station Service District Figure 84. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 85. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Figure 86. Ashburn Station Service District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Figure 87. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 88. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Ashburn Station Service District Figure 89. Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Growth Projections v

8 Figure 90: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Figure 91: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Figure 92. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Figure 93. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Figure 94. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Figure 95. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Figure 96. Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Figure 97. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP Figure 98. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Figure 99. Functional Population Figure 100: Revenue Projection Approach Figure 101: Revenue Projections by Scenario: Countywide Figure 102: Scenario 1 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 103: Scenario 2 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 104: Scenario 3 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 105: Scenario 4 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 106: Operating Expenditures Approach Figure 107. Cumulative Expenditures by Category: Countywide Figure 108. Scenario 1 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 109. Scenario 2 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 110. Scenario 3 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 111. Scenario 4 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Figure 112. Countywide Capital Facility Funding Summary Figure 113. Countywide Capital Facilities Summary Figure 114. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth and Fiscal Results Figure 115. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth & Fiscal Results Figure 116. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth & Fiscal Results Figure 117. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth & Fiscal Results Figure 118. Itemized List of Countywide Capital Needs Figure 119. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 120. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 121. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 122. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 123. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 124. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 125. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 126. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 127. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 128. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 129. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 130. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Fiscal Results Figure 131. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 132. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Fiscal Results Figure 133. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals vi

9 Figure 134. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 135. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 136. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 137. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 138. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Fiscal Results Figure 139. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 140. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 141. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 142. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 143. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 144. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 145. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 146. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 147. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 148. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 149. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 150. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 151. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 152. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 153. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 154. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 155. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 156. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 157. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 158. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 159. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 160. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 161. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 162. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 163. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 164. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 165. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Figure 166. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Figure 167. Variation in Residential Product Types Near Metrorail Stations Figure 168. Variation of Renter vs Owner-Occupied Split in Multi-Family Units Near Metrorail Stations Figure 169. Residential Product Types Figure 170. Variation in Nonresidential Product Types Near Metrorail Stations Figure 171. Nonresidential Product Type Figure Capital Facility Standards vii

10 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TischlerBise is under contract with the County of Loudoun to conduct a Fiscal Impact Analysis of future growth scenarios. The fiscal impact model and analysis are designed to evaluate the impact of future growth under the proposed Loudoun 2040 Comprehensive Plan developed through the Envision Loudoun process, and compare it to future growth under the County s current Revised General Plan. A fundamental question is whether forecasted revenues generated by future growth and development in the Loudoun 2040 Comprehensive Plan are sufficient to cover forecasted expenditures related to service and facility demands which could result from this same growth and development. Results are shown as the Net Fiscal Impact and can be fiscally positive (revenues exceed costs), fiscally neutral (revenue equals cost), or fiscally negative (costs exceed revenues). This tool is intended to assess the fiscal direction (positive, neutral, negative) and general magnitude (how much) of proposed land use decisions compared to what is currently approved as part of the Revised General Plan. The model and analysis also forecast Metrorail Service District revenues and the tax base for the two Metrorail Station Service Districts (Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway-Airport). A fiscal impact evaluation analyzes revenue generation and operating and capital costs to a jurisdiction associated with the provision of public services and facilities to serve development residential, commercial, industrial, or other. A fiscal impact analysis is different from an economic impact analysis in that a fiscal impact analysis projects the cash flow to the public sector in terms of additional taxes and other revenues in relation to costs to provide services while an economic impact analysis projects the cash flow to the private sector, which is measured in income, jobs, output, indirect impacts, etc. A fiscal impact analysis should reflect market realities as well as existing capacities in municipal services and infrastructure. The Loudoun County fiscal model includes four scenarios, to allow comparison between the Loudoun 2040 Plan and Revised General Plan, and to demonstrate how much different the Loudoun 2040 Plan results could be, based on faster or slower development. The four future growth scenarios are: (1) the Revised General Plan Baseline (2) Loudoun 2040: Proposed Plan Low (3) Loudoun 2040: Proposed Plan Medium and (4) Loudoun 2040: Proposed Plan High. The main comparison is between the Revised General Plan Baseline and the Proposed Plan Medium scenarios, which both reflect the same levels of demand for

11 future development. The model reports results by six subareas chosen to reflect the impacts of changes in the current Suburban and Transition Policy Areas as well as on the Metrorail tax districts, and at the Countywide level. As stated above, the goal of the fiscal impact analysis is to be able to compare the magnitude and direction of the different scenarios and policy areas. A fiscal analysis with a large study area (Loudoun County) and long projection period (20 years) requires various assumptions, so the results are more aptly used as comparisons in relation to the other scenarios and its overall net fiscal impact to the County (fiscally positive, negative, or neutral) rather than a comparison of the absolute values. Figure 1 summarizes the total residential and nonresidential growth through 2040 for each of the scenarios. Figure 1. Summary of Countywide Cumulative Growth Cumulative Growth Projection Detail COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High CUMULATIVE (Years ) RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 45,292 53,281 55,611 59,424 POPULATION 122, , , ,633 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 22,948 27,481 28,001 28,867 TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 55,719,895 53,844,949 59,410,429 65,031,044 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 87,079 84,432 92, ,526 The above are key drivers for the fiscal results. The number of residential units and type of residential units drive the amount of population and school enrollment. Population and school enrollment drive school operating costs and capital facility needs and costs. Nonresidential development also is a key driver for fiscal results, particularly on the revenue side, depending on the type of nonresidential development. Other capital needs and costs, particularly transportation improvements, are key drivers for the results as well. Figure 2 provides a summary of the cumulative total revenue, expenditures, and net fiscal impact for each scenario. All four scenarios have a positive fiscal impact. The Revised General Plan Baseline (Scenario 1) generates the largest positive impact to the County with the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3) generating a net positive impact that is approximately 20 percent lower than the Revised General Plan, mainly due to higher operating and capital costs for schools and transportation. The Proposed Plan Low and High also generate positive fiscal impacts with the High scenario (Scenario 4) generating a relatively similar fiscal impact to the Revised General Plan Baseline. 2

12 Figure 2. Countywide Cumulative Fiscal Impact Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (In $millions) COUNTYWIDE Category SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High TOTAL REVENUES (In $millions) $15,302 $16,219 $16,792 $17,674 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (In $millions) $13,216 $14,831 $15,150 $15,735 NET FISCAL IMPACT (In $millions) $2,087 $1,388 $1,642 $1,939 The following figure graphically illustrates the results from Figure 2, that on a Countywide basis, all scenarios generate positive fiscal results. The four scenarios modeled generate similar net fiscal results both to the Revised General Plan (Baseline) and to each other. Figure 3. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide A key question to be addressed is the comparison between the Revised General Plan Baseline (Scenario 1) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). A summary of drivers for each scenario is provided in Figure 4. As shown, the Proposed Plan Medium projects an additional 10,319 residential units with an increase of over 26,000 residents and 5,000 students. Approximately 3.7 million additional square feet of nonresidential development is assumed. 3

13 Figure 4. Summary Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Total Residential Units 45,292 55,611 10,319 Total Population 122, ,155 26,042 Total School Enrollment 22,948 28,001 5,052 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 55,719,895 59,410,429 3,690,534 Total Employment 87,079 92,700 5,620 Total Revenues (in $millions) $15,302 $16,792 $1,490 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $13,216 $15,150 $1,934 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $2,087 $1,642 ($444) While expenditures are higher for the Proposed Plan Medium than the Revised General Plan Baseline due to schools operating and capital costs as well as transportation capital costs, revenues generated from growth included in the Proposed Plan Medium are also higher to offset those costs. Net fiscal impacts are similar between the RGP Baseline and Proposed Plan Medium Scenarios for much of the forecast period, with the impact of additional debt leading to an overall lower net fiscal impact of approximately 20 percent when compared to the RGP Baseline scenario. Scenarios 2 and 4 were modeled to provide a low and high sensitivity analysis from the Proposed Plan Medium. Fiscal results for each of these scenarios are proportionate to Scenario 3 (Proposed Plan Medium), with Scenario 4 (Proposed Plan High) generating higher net fiscal impacts due to the increase in nonresidential development relative to Scenario 3 (Proposed Plan Medium). Scenario 2 (Proposed Plan Low) generates approximately 15 percent lower fiscal results than Scenario 3 (Proposed Plan Medium), while Scenario 4 (Proposed Plan High) generates 18 percent higher results when compared to Scenario 3 (Proposed Plan Medium). Results are also analyzed on a multi-year interval basis and shown below to compare Scenario 1 (RGP Baseline) to Scenario 3 (Proposed Plan Medium). All time periods generate positive net fiscal impacts with the last period generating the largest for both scenarios. This is due to the growth of the real and personal property tax base and resulting tax revenues over time, as well as retirement of debt during the period that has been issued early in the time period. The time period generates lower net fiscal results due to capital expenditures occurring in this time period as well as aggregated debt service from facilities triggered in the previous time periods. 4

14 Figure 5. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide Finally, the figure below presents a summary of fiscal results for the key Policy Areas under consideration in the Loudoun 2040 Plan. The RGP Baseline and Proposed Plan Medium scenarios are presented results for the Proposed Plan Low and High scenarios demonstrate a similar pattern. Figure 6. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact by Policy Area 5

15 The Suburban Policy Area generates positive net fiscal impacts in all scenarios and at a sufficient magnitude to influence the Countywide fiscal results. The Transition Policy Area and the Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area generate negative fiscal impacts to the County in all scenarios due to the predominant land use in these areas (residential) and that there is no proffer revenue in these areas to offset the costs of capital facilities needed to support this development. However, the mix of land uses in the Suburban Policy Area, with the commensurate revenue generated, is enough to cover the deficits and generate overall Countywide positive fiscal results, consistent with the Suburban Policy Area s role as both the focus for nonresidential development and for development overall. Metrorail Tax Districts Figure 7 provides a summary of the tax base generated in the Metrorail Service District along with the Station Districts that are located within the Metrorail Service District. Also shown is the resulting tax revenue for the Metrorail Service District (assuming the current tax rate of $.20 per $100 in value) for each scenario. Figure 7. Countywide Metrorail Service District and Station Service District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Summary of Cumulative Metrorail Service District and Metro Station Districts Tax Base and Tax Revenue ( ) (in $millions) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised SCENARIO 2: Loudoun SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun Category Metrorail Service District Tax Base General Plan Baseline Forecast $6,249 Low $5,797 Medium $6,353 High $7,108 Ashburn Station Service District Tax Base (in $millions) $2,347 $1,986 $2,161 $2,389 Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Tax Base (in $millions) $1,419 $1,115 $1,252 $1,435 Total Metrorail Tax Revenue $178 $174 $185 $201 It is noted that the Metrorail Service District includes both the Ashburn Station Service District and the Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District as well as additional area. Therefore, the sum of the tax bases for Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway-Airport will not total the tax base for the Metrorail Service District. Tax base detail is provided in Figure 8. Projected Metrorail Service District tax revenue is shown in Figure 9. 6

16 Figure 8. Cumulative Metrorail Service District and Station Service District Tax Base Figure 9. Cumulative Metrorail Service District Tax Revenue 7

17 II. INTRODUCTION TO THE ANALYSIS OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY The Fiscal Impact Analysis for Loudoun County uses an average/marginal cost approach. 1 The fiscal impact analysis approach projects operating costs on an average cost approach, to ensure costs are captured that reflect maintaining the level of service provided in the County today. The analysis projects capital costs using facility standards developed by the County (an average cost approach for all County facilities except Schools and Transportation) and direct-entered projects and costs for Schools and Transportation (a marginal cost approach) with input provided by Loudoun County Public Schools and the Department of Transportation and Capital Infrastructure. (See Appendices C and D for further information on Capital projections and costs.) Unique demographic or other characteristics of new residential development are captured such as household size and student generation rates. The factors and cost assumptions about development characteristics (i.e., real property valuations, vacancy rates, household sizes, square feet per employee) are drawn primarily from the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Additionally, to supplement information from the Fiscal Impact Committee (FIC), TischlerBise conducted follow-up discussions with Loudoun County staff and detailed analysis of relevant fiscal, planning, and policy documents. Flexible Design Flexibility of the model has been a key goal in order to provide the ability to answer different types of questions that could arise throughout the plan development process. The model is also designed to accommodate other sensitivity or what if tests that could evaluate changes in assumptions such as (1) demographic factors such as household size and pupil generation rates and (2) impacts of alternate real property value assumptions. While the fiscal model is designed for flexibility, small changes in land use may not result in material differences in fiscal results. Large differences in fiscal model results can suggest 1 There are two basic approaches to fiscal evaluations: (1) average costs and (2) marginal costs: An average-cost approach calculates costs and revenues based on an average cost per unit multiplied by the demand for that unit. A cost per capita in which the current cost per person in a community is standard for future development is used to project costs for services provided to residential development. Marginal-cost approaches consider oversized infrastructure or geographic/locational factors that affect level of service and/or plans for future facilities or services. 8

18 that varying an assumption can lead to actual, material differences in practice. Smaller differences can suggest that varying the assumption is less likely to have an impact. Forecast Period The fiscal impact model is designed to reflect net fiscal impacts of future growth 2 through Results are reported both in five-year Intervals and cumulatively, beginning in This allows for evaluation of the net fiscal impact over time. This is consistent with other components of the Envision Loudoun/Loudoun 2040 effort. Geographic Analysis The model is also designed to provide results for the six subgeographies listed as well as Countywide, to allow for more detailed analysis: Policy Areas using the Revised General Plan boundaries Suburban Policy Area Transition Policy Area Remainder of the County Towns, Joint Land Management Areas (JLMAs), and Rural Policy Areas combined Metrorail Tax Districts Metrorail Service District Ashburn Station Service District Loudoun Gateway Airport Station Service District Revised General Plan Policy Areas The study geographies were selected for two reasons. First, under the Plan Charter, the focus of changes is in two of the Revised General Plan s policy areas: The Suburban and Transition Policy Areas. To maintain an apples to apples comparison, the same boundaries between these two areas and the remainder of the County are maintained for the fiscal impact analysis, regardless of scenario. The individual towns, Joint Land Management Areas (JLMAs), and the Rural Policy Area are not designated as their own distinct geographies because under the Plan Charter, minimal changes are expected to the 2 Since the analysis focuses on the impacts of future development, the resulting population, school enrollment, and employment growth shown in this report relate solely to what occurs within this future development. This analysis does not include any changes to population, enrollment, or employment in existing development. For example, this analysis does not include any increase in employment from occupancy of currently vacant space. 9

19 plan in these areas. However, results are shown for these areas combined are shown as a Towns, JLMAs, and Rural geography. To the extent land uses do not change under the Proposed Plan, the fiscal impacts from the Proposed Plan and the Revised General Plan here will largely be similar. Figure 10 illustrates the Policy Areas analyzed in the fiscal impact model and report. Figure 10. Policy Area Map PROPOSED PLAN: CHANGE TO TRANSITION/RURAL BOUNDARY Under the current Proposed Plan, some land bays that are currently in the Revised General Plan s Rural Policy Area are proposed to be incorporated into the Transition Policy Area. In other words, in this area, the boundary of the Transition Policy Area is proposed to be shifted west. For fiscal analysis purposes, development in this area continues to be considered as within the Rural Policy Area. The differences in fiscal results shown in this report for the Remainder of the County Towns/JLMAs/Rural Policy Area in part reflect that the Proposed Plan moves some land along the Rural/Transition Policy Area boundary from the Rural to the Transition Area. 10

20 For this analysis, lane miles under the Proposed Plan in the land bays that currently are in the Rural Policy Area, but under the Proposed Plan would be in the Transition Policy Area, are split between the policy areas where the roadway is the boundary for those policy areas. PROPOSED PLAN: ADDITION OF URBAN POLICY AREAS As noted above, the fiscal analysis uses the boundaries of the Revised General Plan s policy areas: the Suburban and Transition Policy Areas without potential changes. This enables an apples to apples comparison, where the same boundaries between these two areas and the remainder of the County are maintained for the fiscal impact analysis, regardless of scenario. As previously noted, the Proposed Plan includes a shift in the boundary between the Transition and Rural Policy Areas. It also introduces Urban Policy Areas all of which are located on land that is within the Suburban Policy Area under the Revised General Plan. Appendix E provides maps of the policy areas for both the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan. METRORAIL TAX DISTRICTS Metrorail tax districts also are modeled as subgeographies. Differences in development within the three Metrorail tax districts can impact the additional real property revenues these districts will generate. Inclusion of tax base and revenue data presents the impact of land use changes on the ability to generate Metrorail tax revenue. 11

21 Figure 11. Metrorail Tax District Map FISCAL ANALYSIS ZONES To enable the model to produce results for the six subgeographies, a set of specialized Fiscal Analysis Zones (FAZs) was developed that allow calculations to roll up to either the Policy Areas or the Metrorail Tax Districts. The model FAZs are: Transition Policy Area Towns/JLMAs/Rural And then for the Suburban Policy Area, a set that nest both to the Suburban Policy Area as a whole and to the Metrorail tax districts: o Ashburn Station Service District o Loudoun Gateway Airport Station Service District o Metrorail Service District Remainder o Suburban Policy Area Remainder 12

22 Figure 12. Model Fiscal Analysis Zones (FAZ) 13

23 III. GROWTH SCENARIOS EVALUATED Four growth scenarios were developed for this analysis. A summary of projected growth through 2040 is provided below. Scenario 1 Revised General Plan (RGP) Baseline Forecast. The first scenario utilizes development forecasts based on the medium demand forecasts from the Envision Loudoun Market Analysis, 3 constrained by the development potential (supply) available under the current Revised General Plan. In the RGP Scenario, the County is projected to grow by 45,292 housing units and 55.7 million square feet of nonresidential floor area by Scenario 2 Loudoun 2040: Proposed Plan Low. There are three scenarios included in the fiscal model that were developed around Loudoun County s proposed 2040 Comprehensive Plan. In Scenario 2, the projections are based on the low demand forecasts from the Envision Loudoun Market Analysis. The demand forecast is constrained by the development potential (supply) available under the proposed plan. In the Low Scenario, the County is projected to grow by 53,281 housing units and 53.8 million square feet of nonresidential floor area by Scenario 3 Loudoun 2040: Proposed Plan Medium. The second scenario from the County s Comprehensive Plan examines the impacts with development projections based on the medium demand forecasts from the Envision Loudoun Market Analysis, constrained by the development potential (supply) available under the proposed plan. More multi-family housing units are constructed and every industry sector (except for Heavy Industrial) is projected to grow larger than the Low Scenario. By 2040, the Medium Scenario is projected to increase housing units in the County by 55,611 and nonresidential floor area by 59.4 million square feet. Scenario 4 Loudoun 2040: Proposed Plan High. The High Scenario utilizes development forecasts based on the high demand forecasts from the Envision Loudoun Market Analysis; like with the other Proposed Plan forecasts, this is constrained by the development potential (supply) available under the proposed plan. The scenario projects a higher increase in multi-family housing units and nonresidential floor area compared to the Medium Scenario. The single family projections are consistent for the three Comprehensive Plan scenarios. By 2040, the High Scenario is projected to increase housing units in the County by 59,424 and nonresidential floor area by 65.0 million square feet. 3 Source: Kimley-Horn, Envision Loudoun Market Analysis, January

24 A summary of growth assumptions for each scenario on a Countywide basis in multi-year intervals is provided below. Growth assumptions are meant to reflect growth through Figure 13. Scenario 1 Growth Projections Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 4,639 4,519 1, ,177 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached 4,260 3, ,404 Multi-family Attached 2,601 3,399 3,267 2,892 2,322 14,481 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked 1, ,506 Group Quarters ,758 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 13,845 6,922 5,432 4,130 45,292 Total Market Rate Residential Units 13,578 12,586 6,439 5,141 3,902 41,647 Total Affordable Residential Units 1,385 1, ,645 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 13,845 6,922 5,432 4,130 45,292 POPULATION 44,141 39,036 17,054 12,040 9, ,113 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 8,646 7,911 2,924 1,832 1,636 22,948 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 1,075,021 1,042, , ,207 3,831,122 Office: Urban 40, , , ,979 1,196,461 Low Density Office 602,871 1,011, , , ,824 4,135,618 Heavy Industrial 20,384 73, ,643 Flex/Industrial 2,063,874 1,678,140 2,042,760 1,736,730 1,326,890 8,848,394 Data Center 7,524,663 6,952,089 3,931,496 1,941, ,650 21,259,398 Retail 1,758,018 1,897, , , ,821 5,317,762 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,942 29,148 91, ,040 Other Non-Public 2,484,834 1,249, , , ,592 4,925,538 Other Public 1,674, , , , ,700 3,817,756 Hotel 120, , , , ,000 2,000,163 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 16,307,145 15,370,607 11,169,356 7,554,836 5,317,951 55,719,895 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 17,264 21,517 19,838 15,851 12,609 87,079 15

25 Figure 14. Scenario 2 Growth Projections Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 4,639 4,169 2, ,808 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached 4,260 3,546 2, ,420 Multi-family Attached 2,601 3,135 3,049 2,525 1,708 13,018 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,938 Multi-family Stacked 1,494 1,343 1,306 1, ,957 Group Quarters , ,350 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 14,311 12,876 6,659 4,472 53,281 Total Market Rate Residential Units 13,578 13,043 11,866 6,256 4,203 48,945 Total Affordable Residential Units 1,385 1,268 1, ,336 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 14,311 12,876 6,659 4,472 53,281 POPULATION 44,141 39,581 33,118 15,518 11, ,601 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 8,646 7,933 6,252 2,593 2,057 27,481 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 973, , , ,414 3,352,890 Office: Urban 40, , , ,557 1,037,831 Low Density Office 602, , , , ,198 3,685,528 Heavy Industrial 20,384 61,390 11, ,643 Flex/Industrial 2,063,874 1,470,389 1,728,280 1,468, ,870 7,728,552 Data Center 7,524,663 6,081,009 3,203,846 1,982, ,190 19,142,828 Retail 1,758,018 1,925,238 1,551, , ,274 6,381,533 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,275 38,446 91, ,409 Other Non-Public 2,484,834 1,266,497 1,059, , ,288 5,617,955 Other Public 1,674,338 1,204,037 1,454, ,434 90,398 4,748,190 Hotel 120, , , , ,000 1,731,590 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 16,307,145 14,351,283 11,687,286 7,371,020 4,128,215 53,844,949 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 17,264 20,426 21,076 14,905 10,761 84,432 16

26 Figure 15. Scenario 3 Growth Projections Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 4,639 4,605 2, ,808 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached 4,260 3,909 2, ,420 Multi-family Attached 2,601 3,399 3,267 2,892 2,322 14,481 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked 1,494 1,457 1,400 1, ,586 Group Quarters , ,350 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 15,550 12,408 7,246 5,444 55,611 Total Market Rate Residential Units 13,578 14,156 11,475 6,806 5,114 51,130 Total Affordable Residential Units 1,385 1, ,481 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 15,550 12,408 7,246 5,444 55,611 POPULATION 44,141 43,126 31,083 16,664 13, ,155 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 8,646 8,655 5,702 2,724 2,274 28,001 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 1,075,021 1,042, , ,207 3,831,122 Office: Urban 40, , , ,979 1,196,461 Low Density Office 602,871 1,011, , , ,824 4,135,617 Heavy Industrial 20,384 73, ,643 Flex/Industrial 2,063,874 1,678,140 2,042,760 1,736,730 1,326,890 8,848,394 Data Center 7,524,663 6,702,089 3,790,496 2,391, ,650 21,259,398 Retail 1,758,018 2,102,638 1,453, , ,958 6,601,112 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,656 41,594 96, ,293 Other Non-Public 2,484,834 1,380, , , ,992 5,760,418 Other Public 1,674,338 1,144,187 1,619, , ,683 5,355,808 Hotel 120, , , , ,000 2,000,163 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 16,307,145 15,666,502 12,943,190 8,664,028 5,829,564 59,410,429 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 17,264 22,217 22,765 16,981 13,473 92,700 17

27 Figure 16. Scenario 4 Growth Projections Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 4,639 5,487 1, ,808 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached 4,260 4,644 1, ,420 Multi-family Attached 2,601 3,935 4,022 3,601 2,801 16,960 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,447 Multi-family Stacked 1,494 1,687 1,724 1,543 1,201 7,649 Group Quarters , ,350 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 18,058 11,975 8,377 6,051 59,424 Total Market Rate Residential Units 13,578 16,410 11,167 7,867 5,683 54,705 Total Affordable Residential Units 1,385 1, ,720 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 14,963 18,058 11,975 8,377 6,051 59,424 POPULATION 44,141 50,301 27,963 18,872 14, ,633 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 8,646 10,117 4,699 2,975 2,429 28,867 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 1,144,036 1,202,696 1,105, ,083 4,396,206 Office: Urban 40, , , ,020 1,408,605 Low Density Office 602,871 1,076,715 1,131, , ,527 4,667,449 Heavy Industrial 20,384 73, ,643 Flex/Industrial 2,063,874 1,820,320 2,442,721 2,151,760 1,740,999 10,219,674 Data Center 7,524,663 7,127,029 4,536,808 3,020,340 1,478,680 23,687,520 Retail 1,758,018 2,418,973 1,231, , ,287 6,846,359 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,275 38,446 91, ,409 Other Non-Public 2,484,834 1,582, , , ,972 5,914,557 Other Public 1,674,338 1,628,651 1,182, , ,347 5,146,747 Hotel 120, , , , ,857 2,325,875 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 16,307,145 17,405,132 13,755,985 10,259,983 7,302,798 65,031,044 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 17,264 24,703 23,868 19,698 15, ,526 18

28 IV. FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS RESULTS Fiscal impact results are analyzed in this report for four scenarios. Additionally, as described in Section II, Geographic Analysis, the model uses subgeographies that allow for fiscal analysis by subareas of the County as well as Countywide. The report provides fiscal impact analysis results by the following areas: Policy Areas using the Revised General Plan boundaries Suburban Policy Area Transition Policy Area Remainder of the County Towns, Joint Land Management Areas (JLMAs), and Rural Policy Areas combined Metrorail Tax Districts Metrorail Service District (includes the following two subareas) o Ashburn Station Service District o Loudoun Gateway Airport Station Service District The following sections examine fiscal impacts first Countywide and then in separate sections by the subgeographies analyzed. 19

29 Countywide Results Countywide growth projections and fiscal impact results are provided and discussed first. A key takeaway is that the balance of land uses in all scenarios produce positive fiscal results. Growth Projections A summary of growth modeled in each scenario is provided below in Figure 17 followed by a series of graphs summarizing growth analyzed in the fiscal impact analysis. Figure 17. Countywide Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units Single Family Detached 15,967 17,598 17,598 17,598 Single Family Attached 8,404 11,420 11,420 11,420 Multi-family 19,163 20,913 23,243 27,056 Group Quarters 1,758 3,350 3,350 3,350 Total Residential Units 45,292 53,281 55,611 59,424 Total Population 122, , , ,633 Total School Enrollment 22,948 27,481 28,001 28,867 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 9,163,201 8,076,249 9,163,200 10,472,260 Industrial 8,942,037 7,822,195 8,942,037 10,313,317 Data Center 21,259,398 19,142,828 21,259,398 23,687,520 Retail 5,611,802 6,705,942 6,929,405 7,170,768 Other 8,743,294 10,366,145 11,116,226 11,061,304 Hotel 2,000,163 1,731,590 2,000,163 2,325,875 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 55,719,895 53,844,949 59,410,429 65,031,044 Total Employment 87,079 84,432 92, ,526 A key comparison for this analysis is the difference between the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1 Baseline) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). These two scenarios are based on the same assumptions for residential and nonresidential demand, and thus allow a direct comparison of the impact of the land use changes incorporated into the Proposed Plan. 20

30 Graphs depicting new residential units by type of residential unit 4 in multi-year intervals are provided below for Scenarios 1 and 3. As shown, the number of new units decreases over time under both scenarios, with more residential units assumed after 2020 in the Proposed Plan Medium scenario. Figure 18. New Residential Units by Type: Scenario 1 Countywide Figure 19. New Residential Units by Type: Scenario 3 Countywide In total over the projection period, a total of 10,319 additional residential units are assumed in the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3) compared to the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1). 4 Residential units shown in this report include Group Quarters. Group Quarters are places where people live in a group living arrangement, such as nursing homes, dormitories, and jails. 21

31 Figure 20. New Residential Units by Type: Scenario 1 and 3 Countywide Comparison New residential units will generate additional population in the County. Figure 21 provides a summary of cumulative new population generated in each scenario. All four scenarios are shown. Figure 21. Population Projection by Scenario: Countywide 22

32 New residential units will also generate additional school enrollment in the County. Figure 22 provides a summary of cumulative new school enrollment generated in each scenario. Figure 22. School Enrollment Projection by Scenario: Countywide Nonresidential development projected in each scenario is summarized in the following figures. A similar amount of nonresidential square feet is assumed in both Scenario 1 and 3 over the multi-year intervals modeled. Figure 23. New Nonresidential Square Feet by Type: Scenario 1 Countywide 23

33 Figure 24. New Nonresidential Square Feet by Type: Scenario 3 Countywide In total over the projection period, a total of 3.7 million additional square feet of nonresidential development is assumed in the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3) compared to the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1). Figure 25. New Nonresidential Square Feet by Type: Scenario 1 and 3 Countywide Comparison New nonresidential development will generate additional employment in the County. Figure 26 provides a summary of cumulative new employment generated in each of the four scenarios. 24

34 Figure 26. Employment Projection by Scenario: Countywide Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 27: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons COUNTYWIDE Category General Fund Revenue SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast $12,698 SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low $12,980 SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium $13,441 SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High $14,127 Non-Local Schools Revenue $1,547 $1,747 $1,777 $1,838 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $38 $43 $44 $46 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $529 $795 $831 $890 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $490 $655 $699 $772 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $15,302 $16,219 $16,792 $17,674 25

35 Figure 28: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $2,477 $2,716 $2,800 $2,949 School Expenditures $4,871 $5,501 $5,594 $5,788 Special Revenue Funds $84 $93 $96 $101 Schools Capital Expenditures $2,150 $2,629 $2,629 $2,629 General Government Capital Expenditures $3,633 $3,893 $4,032 $4,268 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $13,216 $14,831 $15,150 $15,735 Figure 29. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (In $millions) COUNTYWIDE Category SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High TOTAL REVENUES (In $millions) $15,302 $16,219 $16,792 $17,674 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (In $millions) $13,216 $14,831 $15,150 $15,735 NET FISCAL IMPACT (In $millions) $2,087 $1,388 $1,642 $1,939 As shown above in Figure 29 and below in Figure 30, all scenarios produce net positive results on a countywide basis. This is due to the balance and mix of land uses assumed in each scenario. Sufficient revenue is generated through both real and personal property tax revenue namely due to nonresidential development (particularly data centers) that generate revenues in excess of expenditures to serve that development. Fiscal results are less positive for the Proposed Plan (at Low, Medium, and High levels) due to the additional residential development assumed in those scenarios with essentially the same amount of nonresidential development. The result is higher expenditures relative to the revenues generated, however, there are still sufficient revenues generated to cover the resulting expenditures. 26

36 Figure 30. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS An important element of the fiscal impact analysis is the projection and comparison of capital facility needs. A summary is provided below for each scenario. For all capital facilities except school projects and transportation lane miles, projections were made based on the County s adopted Capital Facility Standards. For some facilities, the County has established a maximum number of facilities planned to be constructed. For those facilities (recreation centers, satellite maintenance facilities, regional parks, district parks, and group homes), the model includes a formula to ensure the maximum number is not exceeded. For schools and transportation improvements, the facility needs are direct entered into the model by scenario and geographic area based on information provided by Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) and the County Department of Transportation and Capital Investment (DTCI). Further detail on the approach and methodology are provided in Appendices C and D. 27

37 Figure 31. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category / Unit of Measure Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Medium School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 170, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 234, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 73, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) 1, , , , General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 563, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 7, , , , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) 1, , , , Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges Figure 32. School Capital Facility Needs Cumulative Schools by Level - Scenario Comparisons COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised SCENARIO 2: Loudoun SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun School Level Elementary School General Plan Baseline Low High Middle School High School Total A summary of the number of land acres needed for the above capital facilities is provided below. Figure 33. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons COUNTYWIDE Category / Unit of Measure Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline 3,018 SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low 3,388 SCENARIO 3: Loudoun 3,495 SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High 3,631 28

38 Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 A key question to be addressed in the fiscal impact analysis is what the magnitude of difference is between the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). The following figure provides this summary. As shown, both revenues and expenditures are higher under the Proposed Plan Medium compared to the Revised General Plan. While expenditures are higher for the Proposed Plan Medium than the Baseline due to schools operating and capital costs as well as transportation capital costs, revenues generated from growth are higher to offset those costs. Net fiscal impacts are similar between the RGP Baseline and Proposed Plan Medium Scenarios for much of the forecast period, with the impact of additional debt leading to an overall lower net fiscal impact of approximately 20 percent when compared to the RGP Baseline scenario. Scenarios 2 and 4 were modeled to provide a low and high sensitivity analysis from the Proposed Plan Medium. Fiscal results for each of these scenarios are proportionate to Scenario 3, with Scenario 4 generating higher net fiscal impacts due to the increase in nonresidential development relative to Scenario 3. Scenario 2 generates approximately 15 percent lower fiscal results than Scenario 3, while Scenario 4 generates 18 percent higher results when compared to Scenario 3. 29

39 Figure 34. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Residential Units Single Family Detached 15,967 17,598 1,631 Single Family Attached 8,404 11,420 3,016 Multi-family 19,163 23,243 4,080 Group Quarters 1,758 3,350 1,592 Total Residential Units 45,292 55,611 10,319 Total Population 122, ,155 26,042 Total School Enrollment 22,948 28,001 5,052 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 55,719,895 59,410,429 3,690,534 Total Employment 87,079 92,700 5,620 Total Revenues (in $millions) $15,302 $16,792 $1,490 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $13,216 $15,150 $1,934 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $2,087 $1,642 ($444) Metrorail Service District Tax Base (in $millions) $5,797 $7,108 $1,312 Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service Districts Tax Base (in $millions) $3,101 $3,824 $724 Metrorail Tax Revenue (in $millions) $174 $201 $26 Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multi-year intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. All time periods generate positive net fiscal impacts with the last period generating the largest for both scenarios. This is due to the growth of the real and personal property tax base and resulting tax revenues over time, as well as retirement of debt during the period that has been issued early in the time period. The time period generates lower net fiscal results due to capital expenditures occurring in this time period as well as aggregated debt service from facilities triggered in the previous time periods. The Proposed Plan Medium generates lower positive net fiscal impacts than the Revised General Plan due to higher operating and capital costs from a higher number of students, which affects school operating 30

40 and capital costs, as well as higher transportation capital costs. The Proposed Plan Medium has four (4) additional schools than the Revised General Plan and five (5) additional interchanges. Figure 35. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Countywide 31

41 Suburban Policy Area Results The map below illustrates the Suburban Policy Area (along with the other areas) included in this analysis (as discussed in detail in Section II of the report). See Appendix E for county maps. Figure 36. Policy Area Map 32

42 Growth Projections A summary of growth projected in each scenario for the Suburban Policy Area is shown below. The Suburban Policy Area includes the Metrorail Service District. Figure 37. Suburban Policy Area Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units Single Family Detached 1,255 2,220 2,220 2,220 Single Family Attached 6,089 8,860 8,863 8,863 Multi-family 17,443 19,619 21,872 25,528 Group Quarters 1,178 2,772 2,770 2,767 Total Residential Units 25,965 33,471 35,725 39,378 Total Population 58,127 77,238 81,647 88,826 Total School Enrollment 7,985 11,835 12,339 13,179 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 8,598,225 7,547,004 8,572,523 9,806,449 Industrial 7,976,078 6,414,810 7,304,618 8,388,043 Data Center 18,999,398 16,412,418 17,949,398 19,682,394 Retail 3,847,976 4,485,538 4,655,506 4,834,806 Other 4,844,564 6,359,473 6,923,869 6,789,148 Hotel 1,669,992 1,437,218 1,669,992 1,959,397 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 45,936,233 42,656,461 47,075,906 51,460,237 Total Employment 72,394 68,158 75,334 83,009 33

43 Cumulative Fiscal Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 38: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Revenue $8,473 $8,565 $9,005 $9,558 Non-Local Schools Revenue $582 $756 $776 $819 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $19 $23 $24 $26 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $529 $795 $831 $890 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $490 $655 $699 $772 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $10,093 $10,794 $11,335 $12,065 Figure 39: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) SUBURBAN POLICY AREA Category General Fund Expenditures SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline $1,373 SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low $1,578 SCENARIO 3: Loudoun $1,651 SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High $1,772 School Expenditures $1,831 $2,380 $2,444 $2,579 Special Revenue Funds $45 $53 $55 $59 Schools Capital Expenditures $1,126 $1,477 $1,477 $1,477 General Government Capital Expenditures $2,235 $2,473 $2,595 $2,798 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $6,611 $7,961 $8,222 $8,686 Figure 40. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (in $millions) SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Grand Total TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $10,093 $10,794 $11,335 $12,065 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $6,611 $7,961 $8,222 $8,686 TOTAL NET FISCAL IMPACTS (in $millions) $3,482 $2,832 $3,113 $3,379 34

44 As shown above in Figure 40 and below in Figure 41 all scenarios produce net positive results in the Suburban Policy Area. This is due to the balance and mix of land uses assumed in each scenario particularly nonresidential land uses. Sufficient revenue is generated through both real and personal property tax revenue namely due to nonresidential development (particularly data centers) that generate revenues in excess of expenditures to serve that development. In addition, cash proffer revenue is projected to offset capital expenditures due to rezonings in the Suburban Policy Area. Fiscal results are less positive for the Proposed Plan (at Low, Medium, and High levels) due to the additional residential development assumed in those scenarios with minor variations in the amount of nonresidential development. The result is higher expenditures relative to the revenues generated, however, there are still sufficient revenues generated to cover the resulting expenditures. Figure 41. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Suburban Policy Area 35

45 CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS A summary of capital facility needs is provided below for each scenario within the Suburban Policy Area. As noted elsewhere, for all capital facilities except school projects and transportation lane miles, projections were made based on the County s adopted Capital Facility Standards. School facilities and transportation projects were entered into the model from information provided by LCPS and DTCI based on scenario and geographic area. Figure 42. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 103, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 111, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 34, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) , , , General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 341, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 4, , , , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) , Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges Figure 43. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities 1,644 1,965 2,068 2,220 Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 As noted elsewhere, a key question to be addressed in the fiscal impact analysis is what the magnitude of difference is between the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). The following figure provides this summary. As shown, both revenues and expenditures are higher under the Proposed Plan Medium compared to the Revised General Plan. While both scenarios generate positive fiscal impacts, the Proposed Plan Medium is less positive than the Revised General Plan due to the higher amount of residential development and the resulting operating and capital costs necessary to serve this growth. 36

46 Figure 44. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Residential Units Single Family Detached 1,255 2, Single Family Attached 6,089 8,863 2,774 Multi-family 17,443 21,872 4,429 Group Quarters 1,178 2,770 1,592 Total Residential Units 25,965 35,725 9,760 Total Population 58,127 81,647 23,520 Total School Enrollment 7,985 12,339 4,354 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 8,598,225 8,572,523 (25,702) Industrial 7,976,078 7,304,618 (671,460) Data Center 18,999,398 17,949,398 (1,050,000) Retail 3,847,976 4,655, ,530 Other 4,844,564 6,923,869 2,079,305 Hotel 1,669,992 1,669,992 0 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 45,936,233 47,075,906 1,139,673 Total Employment 72,394 75,334 2,940 Total Revenues (in $millions) $10,093 $11,335 $1,242 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $6,611 $8,222 $1,611 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $3,482 $3,113 ($369) Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium by Suburban Policy Area. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multiyear intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. The Proposed Plan Medium generates higher operating and capital costs and thus lower positive fiscal impacts than the Revised General Plan in the Suburban Policy Area due to higher number of students, which affects school operating and capital costs (with two (2) additional schools projected), as well as higher transportation capital costs (with five (5) additional interchanges). All time periods generate positive net fiscal impacts for both scenarios. 37

47 Figure 45. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Suburban Policy Area 38

48 Transition Policy Area Results Growth Projections A summary of growth projected in each scenario for the Transition Policy Area is shown below. Figure 46. Transition Policy Area Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units Single Family Detached 6,592 7,258 7,258 7,258 Single Family Attached Multi-family Group Quarters Total Residential Units 6,778 7,559 7,559 7,559 Total Population 24,986 27,798 27,799 27,803 Total School Enrollment 6,280 6,976 6,976 6,976 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 0 25,701 25,701 25,701 Industrial 214, , ,289 1,064,494 Data Center 2,260,000 2,544,160 3,010,000 3,554,940 Retail 152, , , ,466 Other 2,586,143 2,744,075 2,847,126 2,886,412 Hotel Total Nonresidential Gross Square Footage 5,213,149 6,711,673 7,431,366 8,197,013 Total Employment 4,929 7,223 7,695 8,153 39

49 Cumulative Fiscal Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 47: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) TRANSITION POLICY AREA Category SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast General Fund Revenue $1,999 $2,204 $2,192 $2,270 Non-Local Schools Revenue $482 $514 $518 $526 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $9 $10 $10 $10 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $0 $0 $0 $0 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $0 $0 $0 $0 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $2,491 $2,728 $2,720 $2,806 Figure 48: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $508 $555 $556 $567 School Expenditures $1,519 $1,619 $1,631 $1,658 Special Revenue Funds $18 $20 $20 $20 Schools Capital Expenditures $570 $590 $590 $590 General Government Capital Expenditures $606 $618 $622 $635 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $3,221 $3,401 $3,420 $3,469 Figure 49. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (in $millions) TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Grand Total TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $2,491 $2,728 $2,720 $2,806 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $3,221 $3,401 $3,420 $3,469 TOTAL NET FISCAL IMPACTS (in $millions) ($730) ($672) ($699) ($663) As shown above in Figure 49 and below in Figure 50 all scenarios produce net negative results in the Transition Policy Area. This is due to the predominance of residential land uses assumed in each scenario. Proffer revenue is not available to offset capital expenditures in the Transition Policy Area resulting in deficits. 40

50 Fiscal results are less negative for the Proposed Plan (at Low, Medium, and High levels) due to a higher relative level of nonresidential development in this area assumed under the Proposed Plan. It should be noted that while deficits are generated in this geographic area, the overall balance and mix of land uses and revenue generation on a countywide basis is sufficient to offset costs. Figure 50. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Transition Policy Area CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS A summary of capital facility needs is provided below for each scenario within the Transition Policy Area. As noted elsewhere, for all capital facilities except school projects and transportation lane miles, projections were made based on the County s adopted Capital Facility Standards. School facilities and transportation projects were entered into the model from information provided by LCPS and DTCI based on scenario and geographic area. 41

51 Figure 51. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 25, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 48, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 14, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 85, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 1, , , , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges Figure 52. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised SCENARIO 2: Loudoun SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun Category / Unit of Measure Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities General Plan Baseline 551 Low High 566 Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 As noted elsewhere, a key question to be addressed in the fiscal impact analysis is what the magnitude of difference is between the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). The following figure provides this summary. As shown, both revenues and expenditures are higher under the Proposed Plan Medium compared to the Revised General Plan. While both scenarios generate negative fiscal impacts, the Proposed Plan Medium is less negative than the Revised General Plan due to the higher amount of nonresidential development assumed in Scenario 3. 42

52 Figure 53. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Residential Units Single Family Detached 6,592 7, Single Family Attached Multi-family Group Quarters Total Residential Units 6,778 7, Total Population 24,986 27,799 2,813 Total School Enrollment 6,280 6, Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 0 25,701 25,701 Industrial 214, , ,460 Data Center 2,260,000 3,010, ,000 Retail 152, , ,073 Other 2,586,143 2,847, ,983 Hotel Total Nonresidential Gross Square Footage 5,213,149 7,431,366 2,218,217 Total Employment 4,929 7,695 2,766 Total Revenues (in $millions) $2,491 $2,720 $230 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $3,221 $3,420 $199 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) ($730) ($699) $31 Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium by Transition Policy Area. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multiyear intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. Most time periods for both scenarios in the Transition Policy Area generate net deficits. The Proposed Plan Medium generates slightly higher operating and capital costs than the Revised General Plan in the Transition Policy Area in all time periods due to higher number of students, which affects school operating costs. However, higher levels of revenue are generated under the Proposed Plan Medium in most periods as well, which leads to lower net deficits. Capital needs and costs are comparable between the two scenarios. In the later time period, debt that was issued in the first few years for capital facilities is retired, so capital costs are reduced considerably. In the Proposed Plan Medium, revenue generated from new 43

53 development is sufficient to cover the remaining costs in that time period; revenues are insufficient in the same time period under the Revised General Plan. Figure 54. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Transition Policy Area 44

54 Towns, Joint Land Management Area (JLMAs), and Rural Policy Area Results Growth Projections A summary of growth projected in each scenario for the Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Areas is shown below. Figure 55. Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast Residential Units SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Single Family Detached 8,120 8,120 8,120 8,120 Single Family Attached 2,311 2,441 2,438 2,438 Multi-family 1,538 1,112 1,189 1,346 Group Quarters Total Residential Units 12,549 12,251 12,327 12,487 Total Population 39,001 38,565 38,709 39,004 Total School Enrollment 8,684 8,671 8,686 8,711 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 564, , , ,110 Industrial 751, , , ,780 Data Center 0 186, , ,186 Retail 1,611,649 1,565,946 1,611,649 1,670,496 Other 1,312,587 1,262,597 1,345,231 1,385,744 Hotel 330, , , ,478 Total Nonresidential Gross Square Footage 4,570,513 4,476,815 4,903,157 5,373,794 Total Employment 9,757 9,051 9,671 10,364 45

55 Cumulative Fiscal Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 56: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Revenue $2,226 $2,210 $2,244 $2,299 Non-Local Schools Revenue $483 $477 $482 $493 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $10 $10 $10 $10 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $0 $0 $0 $0 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $0 $0 $0 $0 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $2,719 $2,697 $2,737 $2,802 Figure 57: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $596 $583 $593 $610 School Expenditures $1,521 $1,502 $1,519 $1,552 Special Revenue Funds $21 $20 $21 $21 Schools Capital Expenditures $454 $562 $562 $562 General Government Capital Expenditures $792 $802 $814 $835 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $3,384 $3,469 $3,508 $3,580 Figure 58. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (in $millions) TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category Grand Total TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $2,719 $2,697 $2,737 $2,802 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $3,384 $3,469 $3,508 $3,580 TOTAL NET FISCAL IMPACTS (in $millions) ($665) ($772) ($771) ($777) 46

56 As shown above in Figure 58 and below in Figure 59 all scenarios produce net negative results to the County in the Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area. This is due to the predominance of residential land uses assumed in each scenario. Proffer revenue is not available to offset capital expenditures in the Transition Policy Area, resulting in deficits. Fiscal results are more negative for the Proposed Plan (at Low, Medium, and High levels) due to higher level of capital expenditures assumed in the Proposed Plan. It should be noted that while deficits are generated in this geographic area, the overall balance and mix of land uses and revenue generation on a countywide basis is sufficient to offset costs. Figure 59. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS A summary of capital facility needs is provided below for each scenario within the Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area. As noted elsewhere, for all capital facilities except school projects and transportation lane miles, projections were made based on the County s adopted Capital Facility Standards. School facilities and transportation projects were entered into the model from information provided by LCPS and DTCI based on scenario and geographic area. 47

57 Figure 60. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 41, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 74, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 23, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 137, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 1, , , , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges Figure 61. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 As noted elsewhere, a key question to be addressed in the fiscal impact analysis is what the magnitude of difference is between the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). The following figure provides this summary. As shown, while revenues are slightly higher, expenditures are about 4 percent higher under the Proposed Plan Medium compared to the Revised General Plan. While both scenarios generate negative fiscal impacts, the Proposed Plan Medium is more negative than the Revised General Plan due to the higher amount of capital expenditures assumed under the Proposed Plan. 48

58 Figure 62. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL Residential Units SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Single Family Detached 8,120 8,120 0 Single Family Attached 2,311 2, Multi-family 1,538 1,189 (349) Group Quarters Total Residential Units 12,549 12,327 (222) Total Population 39,001 38,709 (292) Total School Enrollment 8,684 8,686 3 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 564, ,976 0 Industrial 751, ,130 0 Data Center 0 300, ,000 Retail 1,611,649 1,611,649 0 Other 1,312,587 1,345,231 32,644 Hotel 330, ,171 0 Total Nonresidential Gross Square Footage 4,570,513 4,903, ,644 Total Employment 9,757 9,671 (86) Total Revenues (in $millions) $2,719 $2,737 $18 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $3,384 $3,508 $124 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) ($665) ($771) ($106) Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium in the Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multi-year intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. Fiscal impact results are comparable between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium in each time period. Higher costs are generated in the later periods in the Proposed Plan Medium due to higher number of students, which affects school operating and capital costs (with two additional schools in the Proposed Plan Medium). This results in larger net deficits for the Proposed Plan Medium. Other capital needs and costs are comparable between the two scenarios. 49

59 Figure 63. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Policy Area 50

60 Results for the Metrorail Tax Districts Three Metrorail tax districts were established to fund the capital and operating costs of the Silver Line extension into Loudoun County. Each district can have a maximum special levy (in addition to the general real property tax levy) of $0.20 per $100 of assessed value. A special levy of $0.20 is in effect for the larger Metrorail Service District, which encompasses two smaller Station Districts (Ashburn Station and Loudoun Gateway-Airport) and an additional area outside of these districts. To date, no special levies have been authorized for either station district. Figure 64 shows the boundaries of the districts. Figure 64. Metrorail Service District and Station Service Districts Map This section of the report includes both the fiscal impact analysis to the County of development in the Metrorail Service District and the two Station Districts, as well as the tax base and tax revenues projected in these geographies. 51

61 Growth Projections A summary of growth projected in each scenario for the Metrorail Service District Area is shown below. Figure 65. Metrorail Service District Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units Single Family Detached Single Family Attached 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 Multi-family 8,866 7,731 8,775 10,432 Group Quarters Total Residential Units 9,979 9,125 10,162 11,806 Total Population 19,504 18,019 19,939 23,023 Total School Enrollment 1,961 1,970 2,135 2,423 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 5,603,094 4,881,678 5,599,094 6,486,402 Industrial 6,156,408 5,042,131 5,765,408 6,664,038 Data Center 7,629,743 6,362,660 6,970,093 7,693,451 Retail 1,510,056 2,003,776 2,087,813 2,158,003 Other 1,019,597 1,993,708 2,445,969 2,029,476 Hotel 870, , ,058 1,045,692 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 22,788,956 21,019,265 23,738,435 26,077,062 Total Employment 43,596 40,717 45,782 50,861 52

62 Cumulative Fiscal Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 66: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Revenue $3,065 $2,925 $3,116 $3,360 Non-Local Schools Revenue $110 $121 $127 $140 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $5 $5 $5 $6 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $139 $140 $152 $174 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue $191 $173 $192 $224 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $3,510 $3,364 $3,593 $3,903 Figure 67: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $462 $458 $496 $553 School Expenditures $347 $380 $399 $441 Special Revenue Funds $14 $14 $16 $17 Schools Capital Expenditures $64 $64 $64 $64 General Government Capital Expenditures $503 $687 $749 $840 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $1,390 $1,604 $1,723 $1,916 Figure 68. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (in $millions) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Grand Total TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $3,510 $3,364 $3,593 $3,903 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $1,390 $1,604 $1,723 $1,916 TOTAL NET FISCAL IMPACTS (in $millions) $2,120 $1,761 $1,870 $1,988 53

63 As shown above in Figure 68 and below in Figure 69 all scenarios produce net positive results to the County in the Metrorail Service District. This is due to the mix of land uses assumed in each scenario. The type and amount of nonresidential development generates sufficient revenue to offset expenditures. Cash proffer revenue is available to offset capital expenditures in this area reducing potential deficits. Fiscal impact results to serve the area are less positive for the Proposed Plan (at Low, Medium, and High levels) due to higher level of expenditures required to serve development in the Proposed Plan. The Proposed Plan scenarios have additional residential units and less nonresidential development, particularly data centers. This drives the fiscal result. Figure 69. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Metrorail Service District CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS A summary of capital facility needs is provided below for each scenario within the Metrorail Service District. As noted elsewhere, for all capital facilities except school projects and transportation lane miles, projections were made based on the County s adopted Capital Facility Standards. School facilities and transportation projects were entered into the model from information provided by LCPS and DTCI based on scenario and geographic area. 54

64 Figure 70. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 48, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 37, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 11, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 159, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 2, , , , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges Figure 71. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities SERVICE DISTRICT TAX BASE AND REVENUES Another key element to the fiscal impact analysis is the potential property tax revenue that could be generated in the Metrorail Service District under the Proposed Plan and how that compares to the Revised General Plan. The following figure provides a summary of the: Metrorail Service District tax base (includes the Ashburn Station, the Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station, and the remainder of the Metrorail Service District). Metro Stations Tax Base (Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway-Airport). Projected tax revenue if the current $.20 tax assessed in this district is maintained. 55

65 Figure 72. Metrorail Service District and Metro Station District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Summary of Cumulative Metrorail Service District and Metro Station Districts Tax Base and Tax Revenue ( ) (in $millions) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised SCENARIO 2: Loudoun SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun Category Metrorail Service District Tax Base General Plan Baseline Forecast $6,249 Low $5,797 Medium $6,353 High $7,108 Ashburn Station Service District Tax Base (in $millions) $2,347 $1,986 $2,161 $2,389 Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Tax Base (in $millions) $1,419 $1,115 $1,252 $1,435 Total Metrorail Tax Revenue $178 $174 $185 $201 Figure 73 provides detail on the tax base within the Metrorail Service District, and the Station Service Districts within the larger district. As shown, the tax base between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium is comparable with a total value approximately 2 percent higher in the Proposed Plan Medium. Figure 73. Metrorail Service District Tax Base The Proposed Plan Medium generates higher Metrorail Service District Tax property revenue ($.20 per $100 in value) than the Revised General Plan due to the increased tax base from the mix of land uses, particularly the additional retail development assumed. 56

66 Figure 74. Metrorail Service District Tax Revenue Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 A key question to be addressed in the fiscal impact analysis is what the magnitude of difference is between the Revised General Plan (Scenario 1) and the Proposed Plan Medium (Scenario 3). The following figure provides this summary. As shown, both revenues and expenditures are higher under the Proposed Plan Medium compared to the Revised General Plan, with expenditures at a higher level than revenues. More residential development and less of certain types of nonresidential development is assumed in the Proposed Plan, which results in the less positive results. 57

67 Figure 75. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Residential Units Single Family Detached Single Family Attached 1,090 1,090 0 Multi-family 8,866 8,775 (91) Group Quarters Total Residential Units 9,979 10, Total Population 19,504 19, Total School Enrollment 1,961 2, Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 5,603,094 5,599,094 (4,000) Industrial 6,156,408 5,765,408 (391,000) Data Center 7,629,743 6,970,093 (659,650) Retail 1,510,056 2,087, ,757 Other 1,019,597 2,445,969 1,426,372 Hotel 870, ,058 0 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 22,788,956 23,738, ,479 Total Employment 43,596 45,782 2,186 Total Revenues (in $millions) $3,510 $3,593 $82 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $1,390 $1,723 $333 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $2,120 $1,870 ($250) Metrorail Tax District Tax Base (in $millions) $6,249 $6,353 $145 Metrorail Tax Revenue (in $millions) $178 $185 $8 Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium in the Metrorail Service District. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multi-year intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. Fiscal impact results are comparable in the early time periods between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium. The last three time periods generate higher costs in the Proposed Plan Medium 58

68 due to higher number of students, which affects school operating costs as well as higher costs for transportation capital improvements. This results in slightly lower positive fiscal results for the Proposed Plan Medium, but still positive. Other capital needs and costs are comparable between the two scenarios. Both scenarios generate positive fiscal results in all time periods. Figure 76. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Metrorail Service District 59

69 Ashburn Station Service District The Ashburn Station Service District was established to help fund the ongoing costs of operating Metrorail. While a special real property tax levy of up to $0.20 per $100 of assessed value can be charged, to date no taxes have been levied for this station service district. Land within this district does currently pay $0.20 to the larger Metrorail Service District. A summary of the assumptions and findings is provided below in this section. Growth Projections Figure 77. Ashburn Station Service District Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units Single Family Detached Single Family Attached 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040 Multi-family 5,666 3,854 4,367 5,083 Group Quarters Total Residential Units 6,729 4,965 5,477 6,191 Total Population 13,459 10,189 11,114 12,408 Total School Enrollment 1,416 1,140 1,206 1,303 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 2,620,845 2,281,516 2,619,328 3,040,065 Industrial Data Center Retail 667, , , ,785 Other 378, , , ,839 Hotel 275, , , ,163 Total Nonresidential Gross Square Footage 3,942,128 3,872,769 4,538,848 4,854,852 Total Employment 13,800 12,686 14,589 16,352 60

70 Cumulative Fiscal Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 78: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Revenue $641 $580 $617 $673 Non-Local Schools Revenue $89 $79 $82 $86 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $4 $3 $3 $4 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $101 $80 $85 $92 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $133 $99 $109 $122 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $967 $842 $895 $976 Figure 79: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $248 $216 $231 $254 School Expenditures $280 $250 $257 $271 Special Revenue Funds $8 $7 $8 $8 Schools Capital Expenditures $64 $64 $64 $64 General Government Capital Expenditures $197 $167 $179 $197 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $799 $705 $738 $795 Figure 80. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (in $millions) ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Grand Total TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $967 $842 $895 $976 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $799 $705 $738 $795 TOTAL NET FISCAL IMPACTS (in $millions) $169 $137 $157 $181 61

71 Figure 81. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Ashburn Station Service District CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS A summary of capital facility needs is provided below for each scenario within the Ashburn Station Service District. As noted elsewhere, for all capital facilities except school projects and transportation lane miles, projections were made based on the County s adopted Capital Facility Standards. School facilities and transportation projects were entered into the model from information provided by LCPS and DTCI based on scenario and geographic area. Figure 82. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 21, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 25, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 8, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 72, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 1, , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges

72 Figure 83. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 2: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun General Plan Baseline Low High Category / Unit of Measure Forecast Medium Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities SERVICE DISTRICT TAX BASE AND REVENUES The growth in the Ashburn Station Service District tax base, along with the growth in revenue generated within this area for the larger Metrorail Service District, are shown in Figure 84. The Proposed Plan Medium generates a lower tax base than the Revised General Plan due to less overall development assumed approximately 1,200 fewer residential units and an increase of only approximately 600,000 square feet of nonresidential development are assumed. Figure 84. Ashburn Station Service District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Summary of Cumulative Metro Station District Tax Base and Tax Revenue ( ) ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category Ashburn Station Service District Tax Base (in $millions) $2,347 $1,986 $2,161 $2,389 Metrorail Service District Tax Revenue (from Ashburn Station Service District) ($.20/$100) (in $millions) $64 $58 $61 $66 63

73 Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 Figure 85. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Difference between General Plan Baseline Proposed Plan Forecast Medium Medium and RGP Residential Units Single Family Detached Single Family Attached 1,040 1,040 0 Multi-family 5,666 4,367 (1,299) Group Quarters Total Residential Units 6,729 5,477 (1,252) Total Population 13,459 11,114 (2,346) Total School Enrollment 1,416 1,206 (209) Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 2,620,845 2,619,328 (1,517) Industrial Data Center Retail 667, , ,168 Other 378, , ,069 Hotel 275, ,715 0 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 3,942,128 4,538, ,720 Total Employment 13,800 14, Total Revenues (in $millions) $967 $895 ($72) Total Expenditures (in $millions) $799 $738 ($60) Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $169 $157 ($12) Metrorail Tax District Tax Base $2,347 $2,161 ($186) Metrorail Tax Revenue $64 $61 ($3) Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium in the Ashburn Station Service District. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multi-year intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a 64

74 portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. Fiscal impact results are comparable in the early time periods between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium. The last three time periods generate lower revenues in the Proposed Plan Medium in later time periods due to land use mix resulting in lower tax revenue and less capital offsets. This results in slightly lower positive fiscal results for the Proposed Plan Medium, but still positive. Capital needs and costs are comparable between the two scenarios. Both scenarios generate positive fiscal results in all time periods. Figure 86. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Ashburn Station Service District 65

75 Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District The Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District was established to help fund the ongoing costs of operating Metrorail. While a special real property tax levy of up to $0.20 per $100 of assessed value can be charged, to date no taxes have been levied for this station service district. Land within this district does currently pay $0.20 to the larger Metrorail Service District. Growth Projections Figure 87. Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Growth Projections Summary of Cumulative Growth ( ) LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Multi-family 1, ,115 1,349 Group Quarters Total Residential Units 1, ,115 1,349 Total Population 2,330 1,800 2,054 2,485 Total School Enrollment Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 1,368,062 1,189,004 1,368,062 1,596,036 Industrial 3,984,540 3,044,499 3,593,540 4,281,578 Data Center 1,389, , , ,455 Retail 413, , , ,505 Other 298, , , ,116 Hotel 405, , , ,347 Total Nonresidential Gross Square Footage 7,858,469 5,994,786 6,920,621 8,080,037 Total Employment 17,221 14,977 16,677 18,814 66

76 Cumulative Fiscal Results Cumulative fiscal impact results are provided in this section by Scenario. Total revenues are shown first, followed by expenditures, and then net fiscal impacts. Figure 88: Cumulative Revenues by Scenario Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Revenue $513 $417 $458 $511 Non-Local Schools Revenue $10 $7 $8 $9 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $1 $1 $1 $1 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $15 $12 $13 $16 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $24 $18 $21 $25 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $563 $455 $500 $563 Figure 89: Cumulative Expenditures by Scenario Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $100 $81 $91 $105 School Expenditures $31 $22 $25 $29 Special Revenue Funds $3 $2 $3 $3 Schools Capital Expenditures $0 $0 $0 $0 General Government Capital Expenditures $106 $269 $295 $332 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $241 $374 $413 $470 Figure 90. Cumulative Fiscal Impact Results Summary of Cumulative Fiscal Impact ( ) (in $millions) LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Grand Total TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $563 $455 $500 $563 TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $241 $374 $413 $470 TOTAL NET FISCAL IMPACTS (in $millions) $322 $80 $87 $93 67

77 Figure 91. Cumulative Net Fiscal Impact: Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District CAPITAL FACILITY PROJECTIONS Most capital needs are comparable among the scenarios with the exception of transportation lane miles and interchanges, with fewer needs identified in the Revised General Plan. This contributes to the fiscal impact results. Figure 92. Cumulative Capital Facilities Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category / Unit of Measure School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 14, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 4, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 1, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 47, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Park and Ride (Space) Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges

78 Figure 93. Cumulative Land Needed for Capital Facilities Cumulative Land Need for Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT Category / Unit of Measure Land Acres Needed for Capital Facilities SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast 91 SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low 168 SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium 188 SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High 215 SERVICE DISTRICT TAX BASE AND REVENUES The growth in the Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District tax base, along with the growth in revenue generated within this area for the larger Metrorail Service District, are shown in Figure 94. The Proposed Plan Medium generates a lower tax base than the Revised General Plan due to the land use mix with less nonresidential square feet in Proposed Plan Medium, including data centers. Figure 94. Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Tax Base and Tax Revenue Summary of Cumulative Metrorail and Metro Station Tax Base and Tax Revenue ( ): Metro Station District LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT Category Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District Tax Base (in $millions) Metrorail Service District Tax Revenue (from Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District) ($.20/$100) (in $millions) SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High $1,419 $1,115 $1,252 $1,435 $35 $29 $32 $35 69

79 Revised General Plan vs. Scenario 3 Figure 95. Difference between Loudoun 2040: Medium and the RGP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPOSED PLAN MEDIUM (Scenario 3) and REVISED GENERAL PLAN (RGP) (Scenario 1) LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Difference between Proposed Plan Medium and RGP Residential Units Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Multi-family 1,265 1,115 (150) Group Quarters Total Residential Units 1,265 1,115 (150) Total Population 2,330 2,054 (276) Total School Enrollment (24) Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 1,368,062 1,368,062 0 Industrial 3,984,540 3,593,540 (391,000) Data Center 1,389, ,000 (659,650) Retail 413, , ,207 Other 298, ,661 10,595 Hotel 405, ,000 0 Total Nonresidential Gross Sq. Ft. 7,858,469 6,920,621 (937,848) Total Employment 17,221 16,677 (544) Total Revenues (in $millions) $563 $500 ($63) Total Expenditures (in $millions) $241 $413 $173 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $322 $87 ($235) Metrorail Tax District Tax Base $1,419 $1,252 ($167) Metrorail Tax Revenue $35 $32 ($3) Net fiscal results are also provided in multi-year intervals below to compare fiscal impacts over time between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium in the Loudon Gateway-Airport Station Service District. It should be noted that school capital facilities and transportation improvements were provided in these same multi-year intervals by LCPS and DTCI and are modeled in the first year of each time period with a portion of the cost assumed as pay-go (10 percent of the cost) and the remainder debt financed with principal and interest costs spread over a twenty-year term. 70

80 Fiscal impact results are comparable in the first time period between the Revised General Plan and the Proposed Plan Medium. Later time periods generate lower revenues and higher costs in the Proposed Plan Medium due to land use mix, resulting in lower revenue, and higher capital costs particularly due to transportation projects and costs assumed in the Proposed Plan Medium, namely an additional interchange that is not projected in the Revised General Plan. This results in lower positive fiscal results for the Proposed Plan Medium, but still positive. Figure 96. Multi-Year Interval Net Fiscal Impact: Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service District 71

81 V. MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGIES Methodology Proportionate share factors are used to allocate some revenues and costs to residential and/or nonresidential development. TischlerBise has relied on extensive public and private sector input to establish reasonable weighting factors to account for time spent at either residential or nonresidential development. Based on this analysis, the cost allocation for residential development is 74 percent, while nonresidential development accounts for 26 percent of the demand. This demand is then translated into per capita, per job, and per student figures, where applicable, for the detailed revenue and expenditure budgetary lines included in the model. Functional population is similar to what the U.S. Census Bureau calls "daytime population," and accounts for people living and working in a jurisdiction. These weighting factors are shown below with yellow shading. Figure 97. Functional Population FUNCTIONAL POPULATION/PROPORTIONATE SHARE Loudoun County Residential Demand Units in 2015 Population in Loudoun County 368,669 Demand Hours/Day Person Hours Proportionate Share Residents Not Working 178, ,569,520 Workers Living in Loudoun County 190,193 Residents Working in Loudoun County 59, ,604 Residents Working outside of Loudoun County 131, ,834,098 Residential Subtotal 6,232, % Nonresidential Residents Not Working 178, ,904 Jobs Located in Loudoun County 152,489 Residents Working in Loudoun County 59, ,860 Non-Resident Workers 93, ,030 Nonresidential Subtotal 2,238, % TOTAL 8,471, % Sources: Loudoun County, 2017 FIC Guidelines for 2015 Population; US Census, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Empl. Statistics 72

82 Fiscal Year 2016 Actuals Fiscal Year 2016 actual revenues and expenditures (July 1, 2015 June 30, 2016) are used to develop the revenue and expenditure forecasts. Using data and tax rates from a single year allows the fiscal model to reflect a fiscally balanced set of revenues and expenditures. Level of Service The cost projections are based on a snapshot approach in which it is assumed the current level of service, as funded in the County budget and as provided in current capital facilities, will continue through The 2016 existing demand base data was used to calculate unit costs and service level thresholds. Examples of demand base data include population, dwelling units, employment by industry, vehicle trips, etc. The snapshot approach does not attempt to speculate about how levels of service or cost factors will change over time. Instead, it evaluates the implications of new growth to the County as conducted under the 2016 revenues and expenditures and informed by discussions with staff. Inflation Rate The rate of inflation is assumed to be zero throughout the projection period; cost and revenue projections are in constant 2016 dollars. This assumption is in accord with budget data and avoids the difficulty of speculating on inflation rates and their effect on specific cost categories. It also avoids the problem of interpreting results expressed in inflated dollars over an extended projection period. In general, including inflation is complicated and unpredictable. This is particularly the case given that some costs, such as salaries, increase at different rates than other operating and capital costs such as contractual and building construction costs. Using constant dollars avoids these issues. 73

83 VI. REVENUE DETAIL REVENUE METHODOLOGIES This chapter provides detail on projection methodologies for revenue included in the analysis. Growthrelated revenues are modeled in this analysis in the following funds: General Fund Special Revenue Funds: o School Special Fund o Capital Asset Replacement Fund o Comprehensive Services Act Fund (CSA) o Transportation District Fund o EMS Transport Reimbursement Program Fund o County Capital Asset Preservation Fund (CAPP) o Major Equipment Replacement Fund Other funds that are not included are either Enterprise Funds (self-sustaining) or Internal Service Funds. Some revenues are forecasted based on attributing 2016 actual revenues to residential development, nonresidential development, or a mix of the two. Revenues derived from taxation are forecasted based on applying tax rates to property values, or in some cases by attributing revenues related to specific types of development. For many of the other revenues, the proportionate share factors (74 percent residential; 26 percent nonresidential) are used. Where possible (for example, for certain Business & Professional License tax categories), the revenue methodology is tailored to specific product types. Figure 98 shows different major revenue categories in Loudoun County s General Fund, along with a single row for the School General Fund at the bottom. This figure indicates how revenues are related to residential and nonresidential development in the model. There is a third fixed column which indicates revenues that not expected to increase based on future development. In addition to General Fund revenues, which are used in the calculation of net fiscal impact, the fiscal model also forecasts revenues to the Metrorail tax districts. While many of the revenue lines are modeled using proportionate share factors (74 percent residential; 26 percent nonresidential), some of the largest sources of revenue are not. By far the largest two revenue sources are real property and personal property, which combined provide over 70 percent of the revenues in Loudoun County s General Fund. The methodology for each is described below. The calculation of Metrorail tax district revenues is also described. 74

84 Figure 98: Revenue Projection Approach GENERAL FUND REVENUES RESIDENTIAL NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED From local sources: General Property Taxes: Real Property Taxes X X Real and Personal Public Service Corp. Prop. Taxes X X Personal Property Taxes X X Machinery and Tools Taxes X Penalties and Interest X X Other Local Taxes Local Sales and Use Taxes X Business License Taxes X BPOL CLASSIFIED X X Consumer Utility Taxes X X Taxes on Recordation and Wills X X Motor Vehicle Licenses X Bank Franchise Taxes X Hotel and Motel Room Taxes X Permits, Privilege Fees and Regulatory Licenses: Animal Licenses X Permits and Other Licenses X X Fines and forfeitures: Fines and Forfeitures X X Revenue from Use of Money and Property: Revenue from Use of Money X X Revenue from Use of Property X X Charges for Services: X X Miscellaneous Revenue: Recovered Costs: Recovered Costs X X From the Commonwealth: Non-categorical Aid: State Property Tax Reimbursement Auto Daily Rental Tax X Taxes on Deeds X X State Revenue Reductions Mobile Home Titling Taxes Motor Vehicle Carrier's Taxes X X X X Shared Expenses: X X Categorical Aid: X X From the Federal Government: Payments in Lieu of Taxes: Categorical Aid: X X X SCHOOL FUND (NON-TAX REVENUES) School Non-Tax Revenues X 75

85 General Fund Revenues REAL PROPERTY TAX Real property revenues are calculated based on average assessed values by product type, from the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines, when available. The revenue generated by vacant land also is included. Because 2016 is the base year, 2016 tax rates are used as assumptions in the model. Using 2016 rates ensures that financial assumptions are consistent throughout the model: tax rates, actual revenues, and actual expenditures. The 2016 real property tax rates are listed below real property tax rate = $1.145 per $100 in assessed value Metrorail Service District = $0.20 per $100 in assessed value Metrorail Station Districts = $0.00 per $100 in assessed value In addition to the real property tax rate generating revenues for the General Fund, two additional taxes used to generate revenue for Metrorail also apply to real property. These revenues are not used for other purposes and are not included in the General Fund. The Metrorail Service District generates funds to pay the debt service on debt issued by Loudoun County for the construction of the Silver Line. This tax is on assessed real property within the district. The tax rate can be set up to $0.20, its current level. Like for the Metrorail Service District, the station districts also are subject to a tax on real property. The tax rate can go up to $0.20. The tax rate on both of the Metrorail station districts (Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway Airport) currently is zero. The Board of Supervisors can raise this rate when needed to generate funds to help fulfill ongoing payments to the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) for provision of Metrorail transit services to these stations. PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX Personal property falls into two general types: vehicles and Business Personal Property. For the residential sector, personal property taxes apply to the value of vehicles. The County average personal property value per residential unit is scaled (increased/decreased) in proportion to the real property values of the different unit types compared to the County average. For nonresidential development, personal property taxes also apply to vehicles, along with Business Personal Property Tax from computer equipment, furniture and fixtures, and for some types of development, heavy equipment and machinery and tools taxes. Wherever possible, these taxes are attributed to the relevant nonresidential type of development. For example, most computer equipment tax revenue is attributed to data centers (84%). 76

86 LOCAL SALES TAX REVENUE For this analysis, it is assumed that retail development generates sales tax revenue for the County. Because this analysis is a scenario approach, additional spending by residential development is captured within the modeled retail expenditures. Retail development is attributed $300 in annual sales per square foot. The 1% tax rate is applied to the average sales factors to calculate the sales tax revenue. OTHER LOCAL TAX REVENUE There are six other local tax revenue streams from the County s General Fund included in the model: Business License Taxes (BPOL), Consumer Utility Taxes, Taxes on Recordation and Wills, Motor Vehicle Licenses, Bank Franchise Taxes, and Hotel & Motel Room Taxes. The Motor Vehicle Licenses revenue is attributed entirely to residential development; while Business License Taxes, Bank Franchise Taxes, and Hotel & Motel Room Taxes are attributed entirely to nonresidential development. Specific BPOL revenue totals are available in the County s budget, which were used to attributed revenue directly to residential (from short-term rentals) and retail development. The functional population split is used for Consumer Utility Taxes. Lastly, the proportional split of total assessed value of residential and nonresidential development in the County is used to attribute recordation taxes. Special Revenue Funds As stated above, the fiscal impact analysis includes other revenues from Special Revenue Funds, capturing revenues that are anticipated to be generated from growth. Special Revenue Funds: o School Special Fund o Capital Asset Replacement Fund o Comprehensive Services Act Fund (CSA) o Transportation District Fund o EMS Transport Reimbursement Program Fund o County Capital Asset Preservation Fund (CAPP) o Major Equipment Replacement Fund These funds are additional revenues and expenditures that are budgeted and tracked outside the General Fund. 77

87 REVENUE OUTPUTS This section details revenue outputs from the Fiscal Impact Analysis. Revenue Projections Figure 99 illustrates the projected revenues in the County s General Fund and other Funds modeled. Results are shown as a cumulative total over the projection period to It should be noted that, Non-Local Schools Revenue is primarily funding from the Commonwealth along with other minor revenue sources. Also, Capital Offsets represent proffers paid (proffer revenue), whether provided as cash or in-kind (land, structures). Figure 99: Revenue Projections by Scenario: Countywide Cumulative Revenue Summary - Scenario Comparisons COUNTYWIDE Category General Fund Revenue SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast $12,698 SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low $12,980 SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium $13,441 SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High $14,127 Non-Local Schools Revenue $1,547 $1,747 $1,777 $1,838 Special Revenue Funds Revenue $38 $43 $44 $46 Schools Capital Offsets (Revenue) $529 $795 $831 $890 General Government Capital Offsets (Revenue) $490 $655 $699 $772 GRAND TOTAL REVENUES (in $millions) $15,302 $16,219 $16,792 $17,674 Figure 100: Scenario 1 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Revenues in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast Categories Total General Fund Revenue (In $millions) $803 $2,042 $2,847 $3,342 $3,664 $12,698 Non-Local Schools Revenue (In $millions) $86 $262 $359 $403 $437 $1,547 Special Revenue Funds Revenue (In $millions) $2 $6 $9 $10 $11 $38 Capital Offsets (Revenue) (In $millions) $259 $171 $40 $32 $27 $529 Gen Govt Capital Revenue (In $millions) $201 $148 $60 $46 $36 $490 Total Revenue $1,351 $2,629 $3,314 $3,834 $4,175 $15,302 78

88 Figure 101: Scenario 2 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Revenues in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) Loudoun 2040 PRODUCT TYPE FISCAL IMPACT MODEL COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low Categories Total General Fund Revenue (In $millions) $796 $2,042 $2,901 $3,459 $3,781 $12,980 Non-Local Schools Revenue (In $millions) $86 $263 $398 $478 $522 $1,747 Special Revenue Funds Revenue (In $millions) $2 $6 $10 $12 $13 $43 Capital Offsets (Revenue) (In $millions) $259 $207 $186 $84 $59 $795 Gen Govt Capital Revenue (In $millions) $201 $170 $152 $80 $51 $655 Total Revenue $1,344 $2,688 $3,647 $4,113 $4,427 $16,219 Figure 102: Scenario 3 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Revenues in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) Loudoun 2040 PRODUCT TYPE FISCAL IMPACT MODEL COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Categories Total General Fund Revenue (In $millions) $796 $2,061 $2,988 $3,600 $3,997 $13,441 Non-Local Schools Revenue (In $millions) $86 $271 $406 $483 $531 $1,777 Special Revenue Funds Revenue (In $millions) $2 $6 $10 $12 $14 $44 Capital Offsets (Revenue) (In $millions) $259 $225 $179 $93 $74 $831 Gen Govt Capital Revenue (In $millions) $201 $186 $150 $91 $70 $699 Total Revenue $1,344 $2,750 $3,733 $4,279 $4,686 $16,792 Figure 103: Scenario 4 Revenue Projections in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Revenues in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) Loudoun 2040 PRODUCT TYPE FISCAL IMPACT MODEL COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Categories Total General Fund Revenue (In $millions) $796 $2,135 $3,125 $3,798 $4,273 $14,127 Non-Local Schools Revenue (In $millions) $86 $288 $423 $495 $547 $1,838 Special Revenue Funds Revenue (In $millions) $2 $7 $10 $13 $14 $46 Capital Offsets (Revenue) (In $millions) $259 $263 $172 $111 $85 $890 Gen Govt Capital Revenue (In $millions) $201 $219 $157 $113 $83 $772 Total Revenue $1,344 $2,912 $3,887 $4,529 $5,002 $17,674 79

89 VII. EXPENDITURE DETAIL To better understand the expenditures generated from future growth, operating and capital expenditures are detailed below separately. OPERATING EXPENDITURE METHODOLOGIES All variable operating expenditures are projected including personnel and operating costs. Capital Expenditures are discussed in a separate section. Operating expenditures are forecasted using 2016 actual costs, and attributing those costs to residential development, nonresidential development, or a mix of the two. General Fund Operating Expenditures are either allocated 100 percent to residential development (and projected on a per capita basis) or allocated between residential and nonresidential land uses and allocated based on proportionate share factors (74 percent residential; 26 percent nonresidential). School Operating Expenditures are allocated 100 percent to residential development and modeled on a per student basis. Figure 104 on the following page shows the different major expenditure categories in Loudoun County s General Fund, along with a single row for the School General Fund at the bottom. This figure indicates assumptions for which expenditures are allocated to residential development only and those which are also allocated to nonresidential development for the purposes of the modeling effort. There is a third fixed column which would indicate any expenditure that is not expected to increase based on future development. In the case of operating expenditures, all are expected to increase with development, so there is no X in this column for any expenditure category. 80

90 Figure 104: Operating Expenditures Approach GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES RESIDENTIAL NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED General Government Administration: Legislative: X X General and Financial Administration: X X Elections Administration: X Judicial Administration: Courts: X X Commonwealth's Attorney: X X Public Safety: Law Enforcement: X X Traffic Control: X X Fire, Rescue and Emergency Management: X X Corrections and Juvenile Detention: X Inspections: X X Other Protection: Public Works: Maintenance of Highways, Bridges and Sidewalks: X X Construction and Waste Removal: X X Health and Welfare: Health: Mental Health, Substance Abuse and Development Svcs: Welfare/Family Services: Parks, Recreation and Culture: Parks, Recreation and Community Services: Cultural Enrichment: Library: X X X X X X Community Development: Planning and Community Development: X X Environmental Management: X X Cooperative Extension Program: X Transit: X X Education: Educational Institutions SCHOOL GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES School Operating Expenditures X X 81

91 EXPENDITURE OUTPUTS This section details expenditure outputs from the Fiscal Impact Analysis. Operating and capital expenditures are shown. Operating expenditures are costs to provide ongoing services that are budgeted annually. Capital costs are incurred to build or purchase fixed assets and are more one-time in nature. Figure 105 illustrates the projected expenditures in the County s General Fund and other Funds modeled. Results are shown as a cumulative total over the projection period to Figure 105. Cumulative Expenditures by Category: Countywide Cumulative Expenditures Summary - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category General Fund Expenditures $2,477 $2,716 $2,800 $2,949 School Expenditures $4,871 $5,501 $5,594 $5,788 Special Revenue Funds $84 $93 $96 $101 Schools Capital Expenditures $2,150 $2,629 $2,629 $2,629 General Government Capital Expenditures $3,633 $3,893 $4,032 $4,268 GRAND TOTAL EXPENDITURES (in $millions) $13,216 $14,831 $15,150 $15,735 Figure 106. Scenario 1 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Expenditures in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast Categories Total General Fund (In $millions) $122 $386 $557 $664 $748 $2,477 School Expenditures (In $millions) $270 $826 $1,130 $1,270 $1,376 $4,871 Special Revenue Funds (In $millions) $4 $13 $19 $23 $25 $84 Schools Capital (In $millions) $216 $322 $568 $614 $431 $2,150 Gen Govt Capital (In $millions) $342 $708 $842 $947 $794 $3,633 Total Expenditures $954 $2,255 $3,116 $3,517 $3,373 $13,216 82

92 Figure 107. Scenario 2 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Expenditures in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) Loudoun 2040 PRODUCT TYPE FISCAL IMPACT MODEL COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low Categories Total General Fund (In $millions) $122 $387 $607 $755 $845 $2,716 School Expenditures (In $millions) $270 $827 $1,254 $1,505 $1,645 $5,501 Special Revenue Funds (In $millions) $4 $13 $21 $26 $29 $93 Schools Capital (In $millions) $237 $446 $645 $742 $558 $2,629 Gen Govt Capital (In $millions) $299 $653 $925 $1,063 $953 $3,893 Total Expenditures $932 $2,327 $3,452 $4,090 $4,030 $14,831 Figure 108. Scenario 3 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Expenditures in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) Loudoun 2040 PRODUCT TYPE FISCAL IMPACT MODEL COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Categories Total General Fund (In $millions) $122 $399 $623 $776 $880 $2,800 School Expenditures (In $millions) $270 $854 $1,279 $1,520 $1,672 $5,594 Special Revenue Funds (In $millions) $4 $14 $21 $26 $30 $96 Schools Capital (In $millions) $237 $446 $645 $742 $558 $2,629 Gen Govt Capital (In $millions) $299 $682 $945 $1,098 $1,008 $4,032 Total Expenditures $932 $2,395 $3,513 $4,162 $4,148 $15,150 Figure 109. Scenario 4 Expenditures by Category in Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Summary of Expenditures in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario (In $millions) Loudoun 2040 PRODUCT TYPE FISCAL IMPACT MODEL COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Categories Total General Fund (In $millions) $122 $423 $656 $814 $933 $2,949 School Expenditures (In $millions) $270 $908 $1,332 $1,558 $1,721 $5,788 Special Revenue Funds (In $millions) $4 $15 $22 $28 $32 $101 Schools Capital (In $millions) $237 $446 $645 $742 $558 $2,629 Gen Govt Capital (In $millions) $299 $738 $983 $1,161 $1,087 $4,268 Total Expenditures $932 $2,530 $3,638 $4,303 $4,331 $15,735 83

93 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE METHODOLOGIES TischlerBise incorporated Loudoun County s 2016 Capital Facility Standards into the fiscal model. Using population forecasts, these standards will generate the incremental amount of demand for new facilities each year. In some cases, increased jobs in the County will also generate a need for capital facilities. Examples include public safety facilities and space to support general government functions. In addition to the facilities included in the Capital Facility Standards, transportation facilities such as roads (expressed as lane miles) are included in the fiscal model to reflect costs associated with changes to the Countywide Transportation Plan. Finally, Loudoun County Public Schools provided input on the number of future schools needed, based on each scenario. Allocation of Costs to both Nonresidential and Residential Development For facilities that serve both residential and nonresidential development, costs are allocated to both types of development. The methodology to do this uses the current residential standard and determines the proportional employment base served, given the relationship between population and employment in the County today. For example, the Capital Facility Standard for Sheriff Stations is 1 station per 100,000 persons. Currently, the jobs to population ratio is 0.45 jobs per capita. Therefore, the model assumes the sheriff station serves 45,000 jobs (i.e., 0.45 x 100,000 population). Facility square footage and costs for the facility and land are first allocated to residential and nonresidential development using the proportionate share factor (73.6%/26.4%) and then are divided by the applicable demand factor namely population and jobs. An example of the calculation is as follows: Residential Share Facility Square Footage: ([18,000 square feet Sheriff Station] x 73.6% [residential share]) / 100,000 persons = sq. ft. per capita. Total Costs (Facility and Land): ($14,083,601 x 73.6%) / 100,000 persons = $ per capita Nonresidential Share Facility Square Footage: ([18,000 square feet Sheriff Station] x 26.4% [nonresidential share])/ 45,000 jobs = sq. ft. per job. Total Costs (Facility and Land): ($14,083,601 x 26.4%) / 45,000 jobs = $82.62 per job The fiscal model combines the resulting residential and nonresidential square footage demand, and resulting costs, to calculate the total for the Sheriff Station. 84

94 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OUTPUTS The following figures provide a summary of growth-related capital facility and vehicle needs for each growth scenario and geographic subarea. The analysis assumes major capital improvements are funded through Pay-Go (cash funded) and debt financed (bonds are issued where costs are spread out over 20 years with principal and interest paid to retire the debt. County policy is currently 10 percent of the capital cost is Pay-Go and 90 percent is debt financed. The model uses these assumptions. Because of the approach for both Pay-Go and debt financing, both principal and interest costs are embedded in the results. This also means that debt service costs that continue after the last year of the projection period are not captured in the analysis; also, debt that is retired during the projection period (after 20 years) results in lower costs in those years. Also, debt financing tends to smooth out the results as opposed to Pay-Go expenditures, which would result in a lumpier result. Figure 110. Countywide Capital Facility Funding Summary Cumulative Capital Impacts - Scenario Comparisons (in $millions) Years SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline SCENARIO 2: Loudoun SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun Category Forecast % Low % Medium % High % Schools PAYGO $164 3% $202 3% $202 3% $202 3% Schools Debt Service $1,987 34% $2,427 37% $2,427 36% $2,427 35% All Other Capital PAYGO $285 5% $319 5% $334 5% $355 5% All Other Debt Service $3,348 58% $3,573 55% $3,699 56% $3,913 57% TOTAL Capital Expenditures (in $millions) $5, % $6, % $6, % $6, % Figure 111. Countywide Capital Facilities Summary Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Category / Unit of Measure Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Medium School Projects (Schools) Public Safety Buildings (Sq. Ft) 170, , , , Public Safety Vehicles (Vehicle) Parks and Recreation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 234, , , , Parks and Recreation Acres (Acre) Parks and Recreation Trails (Linear Mile) Library (Sq. Ft.) 73, , , , Health and Welfare (Sq. Ft.) 1, , , , General Government Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 563, , , , Transportation Buildings (Sq. Ft.) 7, , , , Transportation Park and Ride (Space) 1, , , , Transit Buses (Vehicle) Environmental Facilities (Sq. Ft.) Transportation Lane Miles Interchanges

95 APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL TABLES Countywide Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year Interval results are provided in this section. Figure 112. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth and Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast Residential Units TOTAL Single Family Detached 5,454 5,494 2,181 1,443 1,395 15,967 Single Family Attached 4,260 3, ,404 Multi-family 4,355 4,696 4,118 3,383 2,611 19,163 Group Quarters ,758 Total Residential Units 14,963 13,845 6,922 5,432 4,130 45,292 Total Population 44,141 39,036 17,054 12,040 9, ,113 Total School Enrollment 8,646 7,911 2,924 1,832 1,636 22,948 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 642,871 2,086,781 2,387,139 2,241,400 1,805,010 9,163,201 Industrial 2,084,258 1,751,399 2,042,760 1,736,730 1,326,890 8,942,037 Data Center 7,524,663 6,952,089 3,931,496 1,941, ,650 21,259,398 Retail 1,776,018 1,951, , , ,109 5,611,802 Other 4,159,172 2,183,024 1,408, , ,292 8,743,294 Hotel 120, , , , ,000 2,000,163 Total Nonres. Gross Sq. Ft. 16,307,145 15,370,607 11,169,356 7,554,836 5,317,951 55,719,895 Total Employment 17,264 21,517 19,838 15,851 12,609 87,079 Acres Developed 8,342 16,402 12,144 9,983 9,677 56,548 Total Revenues (in $millions) $1,351 $2,629 $3,314 $3,834 $4,175 $15,302 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $954 $2,255 $3,116 $3,517 $3,373 $13,216 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $397 $374 $198 $316 $801 $2,087 Average Annual Net Fiscal Impact (in $millions) $99 $75 $40 $63 $160 $87 86

96 Figure 113. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth & Fiscal Results COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low Residential Units TOTAL Single Family Detached 5,454 5,144 3,978 1,533 1,489 17,598 Single Family Attached 4,260 3,546 2, ,420 Multi-family 4,355 4,860 5,028 4,036 2,634 20,913 Group Quarters , ,350 Total Residential Units 14,963 14,311 12,876 6,659 4,472 53,281 Total Population 44,141 39,581 33,118 15,518 11, ,601 Total School Enrollment 8,646 7,933 6,252 2,593 2,057 27,481 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 642,871 1,889,061 2,092,049 1,972,099 1,480,169 8,076,249 Industrial 2,084,258 1,531,779 1,740,149 1,468, ,870 7,822,195 Data Center 7,524,663 6,081,009 3,203,846 1,982, ,190 19,142,828 Retail 1,776,018 1,978,900 1,674, , ,300 6,705,942 Other 4,159,172 2,470,534 2,514, , ,686 10,366,145 Hotel 120, , , , ,000 1,731,590 Total Nonres. Gross Sq. Ft. 16,307,145 14,351,283 11,687,286 7,371,020 4,128,215 53,844,949 Total Employment 17,264 20,426 21,076 14,905 10,761 84,432 Acres Developed 8,342 13,728 14,335 9,663 9,422 55,490 Revenues $1,344 $2,688 $3,647 $4,113 $4,427 $16,219 Expenditures $932 $2,327 $3,452 $4,090 $4,030 $14,831 Net Fiscal Impacts $412 $361 $196 $23 $397 $1,388 Average Annual Net Fiscal Impact $103 $72 $39 $5 $79 $58 87

97 Figure 114. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth & Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Residential Units TOTAL Single Family Detached 5,454 5,580 3,542 1,533 1,489 17,598 Single Family Attached 4,260 3,909 2, ,420 Multi-family 4,355 5,271 5,388 4,623 3,606 23,243 Group Quarters , ,350 Total Residential Units 14,963 15,550 12,408 7,246 5,444 55,611 Total Population 44,141 43,126 31,083 16,664 13, ,155 Total School Enrollment 8,646 8,655 5,726 2,700 2,274 28,001 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 642,871 2,086,781 2,387,138 2,241,400 1,805,010 9,163,200 Industrial 2,084,258 1,751,399 2,042,760 1,736,730 1,326,890 8,942,037 Data Center 7,524,663 6,702,089 3,790,496 2,391, ,650 21,259,398 Retail 1,776,018 2,156,300 1,571, , ,339 6,929,405 Other 4,159,172 2,524,219 2,613,948 1,012, ,675 11,116,226 Hotel 120, , , , ,000 2,000,163 Total Nonres. Gross Sq. Ft. 16,307,145 15,666,502 12,943,190 8,664,028 5,829,564 59,410,429 Total Employment 17,264 22,217 22,765 16,981 13,473 92,700 Acres Developed 8,342 15,017 13,064 9,848 9,529 55,801 Revenues $1,344 $2,750 $3,733 $4,279 $4,686 $16,792 Expenditures $932 $2,395 $3,513 $4,162 $4,148 $15,150 Net Fiscal Impacts $411.7 $355 $221 $117 $538 $1,642 Average Annual Net Fiscal Impact $103 $71 $44 $23 $108 $68 88

98 Figure 115. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Growth & Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario COUNTYWIDE SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Residential Units TOTAL Single Family Detached 5,454 6,462 2,660 1,533 1,489 17,598 Single Family Attached 4,260 4,644 1, ,420 Multi-family 4,355 6,102 6,632 5,754 4,213 27,056 Group Quarters , ,350 Total Residential Units 14,963 18,058 11,975 8,377 6,051 59,424 Total Population 44,141 50,301 27,963 18,872 14, ,633 Total School Enrollment 8,646 10,117 4,699 2,975 2,429 28,867 Nonresidential Gross Square Footage Office 642,871 2,220,751 2,755,118 2,643,889 2,209,630 10,472,260 Industrial 2,084,258 1,893,579 2,442,721 2,151,760 1,740,999 10,313,317 Data Center 7,524,663 7,127,029 4,536,808 3,020,340 1,478,680 23,687,520 Retail 1,776,018 2,472,635 1,354, , ,313 7,170,768 Other 4,159,172 3,211,138 2,038, , ,319 11,061,304 Hotel 120, , , , ,857 2,325,875 Total Nonres. Gross Sq. Ft. 16,307,145 17,405,132 13,755,985 10,259,983 7,302,798 65,031,044 Total Employment 17,264 24,703 23,868 19,698 15, ,526 Acres Developed 8,342 17,522 10,568 10,162 9,626 56,220 Revenues $1,343.7 $2,912 $3,887 $4,529 $5,002 $17,674 Expenditures $932.3 $2,530 $3,638 $4,303 $4,331 $15,735 Net Fiscal Impacts $411.4 $382 $248 $226 $671 $1,939 Average Annual Net Fiscal Impact $103 $76 $50 $45 $134 $81 89

99 Countywide Capital Needs List Figure 116. Itemized List of Countywide Capital Needs Cumulative Capital Facilities Summary - Scenario Comparisons: Number of Facilities (where applicable) COUNTYWIDE Category / Unit of Measure SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Elementary School School Middle School School High School School Animal Shelter Shelter Sheriff Stations Station Fire Station Station Fire Engine Vehicle ALS Ambulance Vehicle Ladder Truck Vehicle Heavy Rescue Squad Vehicle Fire Tanker Truck Vehicle Brush Truck Vehicle Recreation Center Center Community Center Center Teen Center Center Senior Center Center Adult Day Center Center Satellite Maintenance Facility Facility Regional Park Park District Park Park Community Park Park Neighborhood Park Park Recreational Trails Lin. Mi. of Trails Devlpt Srvcs Group Residence Bed Mental Hlth Group Residence Bed Juvenile Detention Center Center Youth Shelter Shelter Group Home Home Emergency Homeless Shelter Shelter Adolescent Ind. Living Residence Residence Library Library General Government Support Facilities Sq. Ft. 140, , , , Recycling Drop Off Center Center Special Waste Drop Off Center Center Park and Ride Lot Lot Transit Bus Maintenance Facility Facility Transit Buses Vehicle Lane Miles Lane Mi Diamond Interchange Facility Single Point Urban Interchange (SPUI) Facility Modified Single Point Urban Interchange Facility Partial Cloverleaf Facility Full Cloverleaf Facility Highly Complex Interchange Facility

100 Suburban Policy Area Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year interval results are provided in this section. Figure 117. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban ,255 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached 3,782 2, ,089 Multi-family Attached 2,567 3,111 3,062 2,525 2,186 13,451 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked 1, ,816 Group Quarters ,178 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 7,343 3,797 3,029 2,483 25,965 Total Market Rate Residential Units 8,492 6,740 3,559 2,839 2,327 23,957 Total Affordable Residential Units ,008 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 7,343 3,797 3,029 2,483 25,965 POPULATION 24,127 16,914 6,959 5,562 4,564 58,127 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 3,956 2, ,985 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 1,075,021 1,042, , ,207 3,831,122 Office: Urban 40, , , ,979 1,196,461 Low Density Office 504, , , , ,524 3,570,642 Heavy Industrial 0 28, ,307 Flex/Industrial 1,831,141 1,426,420 1,889,550 1,606,470 1,194,190 7,947,771 Data Center 7,274,663 5,702,089 3,171,496 1,941, ,650 18,999,398 Retail 920,135 1,425, , , ,265 3,553,936 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,942 29,148 91, ,040 Other Non-Public 1,673,672 1,040, , , ,592 3,789,465 Other Public 269, , ,200 80, ,700 1,055,099 Hotel 103, , , , ,000 1,669,992 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 12,635,048 12,200,074 9,298,012 6,835,704 4,967,395 45,936,233 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 11,820 17,649 17,308 14,137 11,480 72,394 Figure 118. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $997 $1,797 $2,139 $2,467 $2,692 $10,093 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $534 $1,175 $1,588 $1,711 $1,602 $6,611 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $463 $622 $551 $756 $1,090 $3,482 91

101 Figure 119. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban ,220 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached 3,782 2,728 1, ,860 Multi-family Attached 2,567 3,000 2,669 2,381 1,708 12,325 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,938 Multi-family Stacked 1,108 1,183 1,251 1, ,356 Group Quarters , ,772 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 8,487 8,350 4,370 2,951 33,471 Total Market Rate Residential Units 8,492 7,801 7,753 4,067 2,747 30,859 Total Affordable Residential Units ,611 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 8,487 8,350 4,370 2,951 33,471 POPULATION 24,127 19,610 18,189 9,111 6,202 77,238 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 3,956 3,109 2,748 1, ,835 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 973, , , ,414 3,352,890 Office: Urban 40, , , ,557 1,037,831 Low Density Office 504, , , , ,389 3,156,283 Heavy Industrial 0 23,721 4, ,307 Flex/Industrial 1,831,141 1,249,832 1,382,625 1,174, ,397 6,386,503 Data Center 7,274,663 4,946,846 2,561,470 1,443, ,051 16,412,418 Retail 920,135 1,374,656 1,054, , ,135 4,161,129 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,275 38,446 91, ,409 Other Non-Public 1,673,672 1,047, , , ,904 4,427,407 Other Public 269, , , ,827 86,801 1,932,066 Hotel 103, , , , ,000 1,437,218 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 12,635,048 11,245,004 9,445,762 5,810,973 3,519,674 42,656,461 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 11,820 16,563 17,633 12,609 9,532 68,158 Figure 120. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $995 $1,840 $2,437 $2,675 $2,847 $10,794 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $494 $1,268 $1,898 $2,164 $2,138 $7,961 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $501 $572 $539 $511 $709 $2,832 92

102 Figure 121. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban ,220 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached 3,782 2,979 1, ,863 Multi-family Attached 2,567 3,253 2,860 2,727 2,322 13,729 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked 1,108 1,283 1,341 1, ,967 Group Quarters , ,770 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 9,193 8,360 4,936 3,923 35,725 Total Market Rate Residential Units 8,492 8,446 7,779 4,598 3,658 32,973 Total Affordable Residential Units ,752 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 9,193 8,360 4,936 3,923 35,725 POPULATION 24,127 21,298 17,903 10,218 8,101 81,647 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 3,956 3,385 2,656 1,294 1,048 12,339 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 1,075,021 1,042, , ,207 3,831,122 Office: Urban 40, , , ,979 1,196,461 Low Density Office 504, , , , ,524 3,544,940 Heavy Industrial 0 28, ,307 Flex/Industrial 1,831,141 1,426,420 1,634,210 1,389, ,160 7,276,311 Data Center 7,274,663 5,452,089 3,030,496 1,741, ,650 17,949,398 Retail 920,135 1,501, , , ,986 4,327,213 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,656 41,594 96, ,293 Other Non-Public 1,673,672 1,141, , , ,661 4,547,183 Other Public 269, ,887 1,019, , ,700 2,376,686 Hotel 103, , , , ,000 1,669,992 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 12,635,048 12,336,979 10,488,532 6,763,099 4,852,248 47,075,906 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 11,820 18,081 19,193 14,308 11,932 75,334 Figure 122. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $995 $1,918 $2,521 $2,830 $3,071 $11,335 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $494 $1,304 $1,943 $2,232 $2,249 $8,222 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $501 $614 $578 $598 $822 $3,113 93

103 Figure 123. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban ,220 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached 3,782 3,487 1, ,863 Multi-family Attached 2,567 3,766 3,521 3,396 2,801 16,051 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,447 Multi-family Stacked 1,108 1,513 1,665 1,543 1,201 7,030 Group Quarters , ,767 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 10,648 8,860 6,027 4,530 39,378 Total Market Rate Residential Units 8,492 9,777 8,281 5,621 4,227 36,397 Total Affordable Residential Units ,981 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 9,313 10,648 8,860 6,027 4,530 39,378 POPULATION 24,127 24,774 18,257 12,352 9,316 88,826 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 3,956 3,953 2,504 1,563 1,204 13,179 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 1,144,036 1,202,696 1,105, ,083 4,396,206 Office: Urban 40, , , ,020 1,408,605 Low Density Office 504, , , , ,950 4,001,638 Heavy Industrial 0 28, ,307 Flex/Industrial 1,831,141 1,547,273 1,954,179 1,721,403 1,305,740 8,359,736 Data Center 7,274,663 5,797,774 3,627,171 2,199, ,362 19,682,394 Retail 920,135 1,727, , , ,560 4,510,397 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,275 38,446 91, ,409 Other Non-Public 1,673,672 1,309, , , ,107 4,668,126 Other Public 269, , , , ,420 2,121,022 Hotel 103, , , , ,857 1,959,397 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 12,635,048 13,560,680 11,296,481 8,072,902 5,895,125 51,460,237 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 11,820 19,853 20,503 16,724 14,110 83,009 Figure 124. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario SUBURBAN POLICY AREA SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $995 $2,042 $2,637 $3,051 $3,340 $12,065 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $494 $1,370 $2,034 $2,365 $2,423 $8,686 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $500 $672 $603 $686 $918 $3,379 94

104 Transition Policy Area Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year interval results are provided in this section. Figure 125. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 3,067 2, ,592 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 2, ,778 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,858 2, ,942 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 2, ,778 POPULATION 11,906 10,679 2, ,986 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 2,963 2, ,280 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office Heavy Industrial 20,384 26, ,019 Flex/Industrial 0 167, ,810 Data Center 250,000 1,250, , ,260,000 Retail 117,167 35, ,177 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 410,912 40, ,912 Other Public 1,245, , , ,135,231 Hotel TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 2,043,994 1,959,155 1,210, ,213,149 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,541 1, ,929 Figure 126. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $201 $432 $584 $637 $637 $2,491 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $298 $640 $790 $806 $686 $3,221 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) ($97) ($209) ($205) ($170) ($49) ($730) 95

105 Figure 127. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 3,067 2,623 1, ,258 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 2,653 1, ,559 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,858 2,321 1, ,626 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 2,653 1, ,559 POPULATION 11,906 9,827 5, ,798 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 2,963 2,486 1, ,976 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office , ,701 Heavy Industrial 20,384 22,320 4, ,019 Flex/Industrial 0 147, , , , ,260 Data Center 250,000 1,134, , , ,212 2,544,160 Retail 117, , , ,288 9, ,458 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 410,912 64,241 31,962 13, ,111 Other Public 1,245, , , ,949 3,597 2,222,964 Hotel TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 2,043,994 1,980,622 1,583, , ,000 6,711,673 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,541 1,687 1, ,223 Figure 128. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $196 $460 $632 $709 $730 $2,728 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $314 $637 $823 $879 $747 $3,401 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $milli ($118) ($177) ($190) ($170) ($17) ($672) 96

106 Figure 129. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 3,067 2,845 1, ,258 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 2,875 1, ,559 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,858 2,516 1, ,626 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 2,875 1, ,559 POPULATION 11,906 10,651 4, ,799 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 2,963 2,695 1, ,976 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office , ,701 Heavy Industrial 20,384 26, ,019 Flex/Industrial 0 167, , , , ,270 Data Center 250,000 1,250, , , ,000 3,010,000 Retail 117, , , ,726 11, ,250 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 410,912 70,000 30,000 15, ,912 Other Public 1,245, , , ,000 15,983 2,321,214 Hotel TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 2,043,994 2,118,145 1,763,982 1,028, ,429 7,431,366 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,541 1,779 1,915 1, ,695 Figure 130. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $196 $433 $624 $714 $753 $2,720 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $314 $650 $828 $879 $749 $3,420 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $million ($118) ($217) ($204) ($165) $5 ($699) 97

107 Figure 131. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 3,067 3, ,258 Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 3, ,559 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,858 2, ,626 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 3,253 3, ,559 POPULATION 11,906 12,321 3, ,803 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 2,963 3, ,976 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office , ,701 Heavy Industrial 20,384 26, ,019 Flex/Industrial 0 182, , , ,145 1,017,475 Data Center 250,000 1,329, , , ,574 3,554,940 Retail 117, , , ,973 12, ,466 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 410,912 80,269 25,838 16, ,548 Other Public 1,245, , , ,094 8,927 2,352,864 Hotel TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 2,043,994 2,432,735 1,800,771 1,202, ,475 8,197,013 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,541 2,138 1,763 1, ,153 Figure 132. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TRANSITION POLICY AREA SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $196 $449 $643 $734 $784 $2,806 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $314 $681 $843 $880 $750 $3,469 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions ($118) ($232) ($200) ($147) $34 ($663) 98

108 Towns, JLMAs, and Rural Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year intervals results are provided in this section. Figure 133. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 752 1, ,330 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached ,311 Multi-family Attached ,030 Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 3,625 2,555 2,351 1,621 12,549 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,229 3,328 2,382 2,257 1,552 11,748 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 3,625 2,555 2,351 1,621 12,549 POPULATION 8,108 11,442 7,984 6,285 5,182 39,001 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1,727 2,600 1,814 1,318 1,225 8,684 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office 98, , , , , ,976 Heavy Industrial 0 18, ,317 Flex/Industrial 232,733 83, , , , ,813 Data Center Retail 720, , , ,004 83,556 1,611,649 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 400, ,182 47,198 43,531 26, ,161 Other Public 159, , , , ,426 Hotel 16, , , ,171 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 1,628,103 1,211, , , ,556 4,570,513 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,903 2,394 1,709 1,665 1,086 9,757 Figure 134. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $153 $400 $590 $730 $846 $2,719 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $122 $440 $738 $1,000 $1,085 $3,384 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $31 ($39) ($148) ($270) ($239) ($665) 99

109 Figure 135. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 752 1, ,330 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached ,441 Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 3,170 2,943 2,220 1,521 12,251 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,229 2,920 2,727 2,129 1,456 11,460 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 3,170 2,943 2,220 1,521 12,251 POPULATION 8,108 10,145 9,120 6,152 5,041 38,565 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1,727 2,338 2,043 1,338 1,225 8,671 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office 98,496 94, , ,577 88, ,544 Heavy Industrial 0 15,349 2, ,317 Flex/Industrial 232,733 73, , ,115 99, ,789 Data Center ,323 61, ,250 Retail 720, , , ,149 69,626 1,565,946 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 400, ,346 49,060 43,397 22, ,437 Other Public 159, , , , ,160 Hotel 16, , , ,372 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 1,628,103 1,125, , , ,541 4,476,815 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,903 2,175 1,609 1, ,

110 Figure 136. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Countywide Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $153 $387 $578 $729 $850 $2,697 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $124 $422 $732 $1,047 $1,145 $3,469 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $29 ($35) ($153) ($318) ($295) ($772) 101

111 Figure 137. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 752 1, ,330 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached ,438 Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 3,482 2,686 2,241 1,521 12,327 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,229 3,194 2,504 2,148 1,456 11,532 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 3,482 2,686 2,241 1,521 12,327 POPULATION 8,108 11,177 8,193 6,190 5,041 38,709 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1,727 2,576 1,817 1,341 1,225 8,686 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office 98, , , , , ,976 Heavy Industrial 0 18, ,317 Flex/Industrial 232,733 83, , , , ,813 Data Center , , ,000 Retail 720, , , ,004 83,556 1,611,649 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 400, ,182 46,048 46,512 26, ,323 Other Public 159, , , , ,908 Hotel 16, , , ,171 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 1,628,103 1,211, , , ,887 4,903,157 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,903 2,356 1,657 1,658 1,096 9,671 Figure 138. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $153 $399 $588 $735 $862 $2,737 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $124 $441 $742 $1,051 $1,150 $3,508 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $29 ($42) ($153) ($316) ($289) ($771) 102

112 Figure 139. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban 752 1, ,330 Single Family Detached Rural ,000 1,000 1,000 4,790 Single Family Attached 474 1, ,438 Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 4,085 2,203 2,281 1,521 12,487 Total Market Rate Residential Units 2,229 3,724 2,088 2,186 1,456 11,682 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 2,397 4,085 2,203 2,281 1,521 12,487 POPULATION 8,108 13,205 6,386 6,264 5,041 39,004 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1,727 3,046 1,365 1,348 1,225 8,711 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office Office: Urban Low Density Office 98, , , , , ,110 Heavy Industrial 0 18, ,317 Flex/Industrial 232,733 91, , , , ,463 Data Center , , ,186 Retail 720, , , ,643 93,898 1,670,496 Retail: Urban Other Non-Public 400, ,855 39,660 51,253 28, ,883 Other Public 159, , , , ,861 Hotel 16, , , ,478 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 1,628,103 1,411, , , ,198 5,373,794 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2,903 2,712 1,603 1,843 1,303 10,364 Figure 140. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario TOWNS, JLMAs, AND RURAL SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $153 $421 $606 $744 $878 $2,802 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $124 $479 $761 $1,058 $1,158 $3,580 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $29 ($58) ($155) ($314) ($280) ($777) 103

113 Metrorail Service District Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year intervals results are provided in this section. Figure 141. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT Figure 142. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,090 Multi-family Attached 0 1,223 1,967 1,827 1,673 6,690 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,913 2,688 2,318 1,962 9,979 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 1,776 2,520 2,173 1,839 9,286 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,913 2,688 2,318 1,962 9,979 POPULATION 2,986 3,811 4,890 4,228 3,589 19,504 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,961 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 537, , , ,803 2,518,383 Office: Urban 40, , , ,979 1,196,461 Low Density Office 0 456, , , ,524 1,888,250 Heavy Industrial 0 10, ,992 Flex/Industrial 1,254,876 1,283,780 1,634,210 1,325, ,850 6,145,416 Data Center 3,049,093 1,621,000 1,200,000 1,100, ,650 7,629,743 Retail 42, , , , ,380 1,216,016 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,942 29,148 91, ,040 Other Non-Public 90, ,280 75, , , ,897 Other Public ,000 80, , ,700 Hotel 7, , , , ,058 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 4,502,089 4,617,937 5,549,996 4,824,739 3,294,195 22,788,956 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 3,804 8,606 12,687 10,726 7,773 43,596 Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $226 $503 $740 $942 $1,099 $3,510 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $50 $152 $298 $405 $484 $1,390 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $176 $351 $442 $536 $615 $2,

114 Figure 143. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,090 Multi-family Attached 0 1,405 1,427 1, ,104 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,938 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 2,431 2,701 1,759 1,136 9,125 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 2,262 2,549 1,649 1,065 8,502 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 2,431 2,701 1,759 1,136 9,125 POPULATION 2,986 4,931 4,822 3,203 2,076 18,019 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,970 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 486, , , ,734 2,202,283 Office: Urban 40, , , ,557 1,037,831 Low Density Office 0 434, , , ,381 1,641,564 Heavy Industrial 0 9,211 1, ,992 Flex/Industrial 1,254, ,800 1,263,332 1,120, ,455 5,031,139 Data Center 3,049,093 1,470,783 1,014, ,937 82,570 6,362,660 Retail 42, , , , ,643 1,679,367 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,275 38,446 91, ,409 Other Non-Public 90, , , , ,886 1,052,066 Other Public ,511 50,330 86, ,642 Hotel 7, , , , ,312 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 4,502,089 4,057,637 6,058,270 4,080,074 2,321,196 21,019,265 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 3,804 7,803 13,014 9,570 6,527 40,717 Figure 144. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $223 $526 $735 $893 $988 $3,364 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $53 $188 $364 $471 $527 $1,604 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $171 $338 $371 $422 $460 $1,

115 Figure 145. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,090 Multi-family Attached 0 1,523 1,529 1,523 1,281 5,856 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 2,613 2,867 2,014 1,570 10,162 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 2,433 2,705 1,888 1,472 9,474 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 2,613 2,867 2,014 1,570 10,162 POPULATION 2,986 5,277 5,141 3,668 2,867 19,939 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,135 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 537, , , ,803 2,518,383 Office: Urban 40, , , ,979 1,196,461 Low Density Office 0 479, , , ,524 1,884,250 Heavy Industrial 0 10, ,992 Flex/Industrial 1,254,876 1,033,780 1,493,210 1,325, ,850 5,754,416 Data Center 3,049,093 1,621,000 1,200, , ,000 6,970,093 Retail 42, , , , ,986 1,759,520 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,656 41,594 96, ,293 Other Non-Public 90, , , , ,661 1,084,569 Other Public ,700 80, ,700 1,361,400 Hotel 7, , , , ,058 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 4,502,089 4,497,874 6,760,480 4,735,679 3,242,313 23,738,435 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 3,804 8,532 14,321 10,876 8,249 45,782 Figure 146. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $223 $544 $776 $961 $1,088 $3,593 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $53 $196 $385 $507 $582 $1,723 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $171 $348 $391 $455 $506 $1,

116 Figure 147. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,090 Multi-family Attached 0 1,763 1,882 1,897 1,545 7,087 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,447 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 2,990 3,455 2,507 1,756 11,806 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 2,786 3,256 2,350 1,646 11,014 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 2,990 3,455 2,507 1,756 11,806 POPULATION 2,986 5,997 6,258 4,566 3,216 23,023 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,423 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 572, , , ,250 2,903,280 Office: Urban 40, , , ,020 1,408,605 Low Density Office 0 510, , , ,909 2,174,517 Heavy Industrial 0 10, ,992 Flex/Industrial 1,254,876 1,121,367 1,785,572 1,642, ,726 6,653,046 Data Center 3,049,093 1,723,778 1,436,268 1,136, ,659 7,693,451 Retail 42, , , , ,137 1,833,594 Retail: Urban 18,000 53, ,275 38,446 91, ,409 Other Non-Public 90, , , , ,707 1,092,513 Other Public ,735 67, , ,963 Hotel 7, , , ,082 1,045,692 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 4,502,089 4,867,458 7,241,513 5,669,066 3,796,936 26,077,062 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 3,804 9,173 15,467 12,778 9,640 50,861 Figure 148. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario METRORAIL SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $223 $570 $840 $1,060 $1,210 $3,903 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $53 $209 $421 $570 $662 $1,916 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions $171 $361 $418 $490 $548 $1,

117 Ashburn Station Service Districts Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year intervals results are provided in this section. Figure 149. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,040 Multi-family Attached ,490 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,463 1,703 1,418 1,047 6,729 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 1,358 1,597 1, ,242 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,463 1,703 1,418 1,047 6,729 POPULATION 2,986 2,923 3,076 2,570 1,904 13,459 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,416 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 215, , , , ,434 Office: Urban 40, , , , ,739 Low Density Office 0 171, , , , ,672 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial Data Center Retail 9, ,283 75,282 68,982 75, ,347 Retail: Urban 18,000 53,662 81,644 17,489 76, ,790 Other Non-Public 9,500 40,000 45,000 30,000 43, ,431 Other Public ,000 40, ,000 Hotel ,143 57,143 81, ,715 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 77, ,995 1,352, , ,666 3,942,128 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 339 2,099 4,468 3,525 3,368 13,800 Figure 150. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $92 $136 $197 $251 $292 $967 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $37 $98 $180 $225 $259 $799 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $55 $38 $17 $26 $33 $

118 Figure 151. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,040 Multi-family Attached ,916 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,938 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,320 1, ,965 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 1,224 1, ,591 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,320 1, ,965 POPULATION 2,986 2,663 2,053 1, ,189 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,140 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 194, , , , ,448 Office: Urban 40, , , , ,340 Low Density Office 0 154, , , , ,728 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial Data Center Retail 9, , ,440 85,167 94, ,914 Retail: Urban 18,000 53,662 84,822 23,067 72, ,268 Other Non-Public 9,500 36, ,083 37,321 51, ,620 Other Public ,693 25,165 63, ,871 Hotel ,176 49,261 65, ,580 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 77, ,542 1,462, , ,391 3,872,769 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 339 1,909 4,321 3,180 2,936 12,686 Figure 152. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $92 $129 $169 $211 $241 $842 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $37 $95 $165 $194 $213 $705 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $55 $34 $4 $17 $28 $

119 Figure 153. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,040 Multi-family Attached ,191 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,176 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,413 1, ,477 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 1,311 1, ,071 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,413 1, ,477 POPULATION 2,986 2,831 2,196 1,734 1,366 11,114 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,206 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 215, , , , ,434 Office: Urban 40, , , , ,739 Low Density Office 0 171, , , , ,155 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial Data Center Retail 9, , ,618 91, , ,048 Retail: Urban 18,000 53,662 81,644 24,956 76, ,257 Other Non-Public 9,500 40, ,000 40,000 60, ,500 Other Public ,000 40, , ,000 Hotel ,143 57,143 81, ,715 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 77, ,321 1,577, ,950 1,243,514 4,538,848 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 339 2,089 4,775 3,592 3,793 14,589 Figure 154. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $92 $134 $177 $226 $266 $895 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $37 $97 $171 $204 $230 $738 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $55 $36 $7 $22 $37 $

120 Figure 155. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached ,040 Multi-family Attached ,636 Multi-family Attached: Urban ,447 Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,600 1,522 1, ,191 Total Market Rate Residential Units 977 1,486 1,429 1, ,740 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS 1,098 1,600 1,522 1, ,191 POPULATION 2,986 3,170 2,690 2,157 1,405 12,408 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ,303 NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 228, , , ,236 1,069,144 Office: Urban 40, , , ,020 1,170,653 Low Density Office 0 182, , , , ,268 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial Data Center Retail 9, , , , , ,517 Retail: Urban 18,000 53,662 84,822 23,067 72, ,268 Other Non-Public 9,500 45, ,254 44,077 65, ,474 Other Public ,076 33, , ,365 Hotel ,486 68, , ,163 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 77, ,352 1,639,268 1,112,993 1,297,939 4,854,852 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 339 2,257 5,247 4,172 4,337 16,352 Figure 156. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario ASHBURN STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $92 $142 $196 $252 $294 $976 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $37 $101 $182 $223 $253 $795 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $55 $41 $14 $29 $41 $

121 Loudoun Gateway-Airport Station Service Districts Multi-Year Intervals Multi-Year intervals results are provided in this section. Figure 157. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached ,265 Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS ,265 Total Market Rate Residential Units ,186 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS ,265 POPULATION ,330 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 107, , , , ,018 Office: Urban , ,722 Low Density Office 0 85, , , , ,322 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial 294, ,170 1,143, , ,850 3,984,540 Data Center 180, , , , ,650 1,389,650 Retail 0 206,000 74,610 54,321 31, ,901 Retail: Urban ,298 11,659 14,293 46,250 Other Non-Public 0 20, , , ,066 Other Public Hotel , ,000 85, ,000 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 474,000 1,446,200 2,025,278 2,232,277 1,680,714 7,858,469 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1,096 3,636 4,892 4,576 3,022 17,221 Figure 158. Scenario 1 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 1: Revised General Plan Baseline Forecast Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $14 $59 $105 $166 $219 $563 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $2 $21 $49 $76 $92 $241 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $12 $38 $56 $90 $127 $

122 Figure 159. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION S SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS Total Market Rate Residential Units Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS POPULATION ,800 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 97, , , , ,328 Office: Urban , ,491 Low Density Office 0 77, , ,353 91, ,185 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial 294, , , , ,455 3,044,499 Data Center 180,000 90, , , ,984 Retail 0 192, ,222 56,777 29, ,841 Retail: Urban ,453 15,379 18,309 72,141 Other Non-Public 0 18, , , ,529 Other Public Hotel , ,448 68, ,788 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 474,000 1,069,670 1,711,699 1,769, ,109 5,994,786 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1,096 3,026 4,426 4,008 2,421 14,977 Figure 160. Scenario 2 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 2: Loudoun Low Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $15 $51 $90 $136 $164 $455 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $6 $37 $78 $117 $136 $374 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $8 $13 $11 $19 $28 $80 113

123 Figure 161. Scenario 3 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached ,115 Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS ,115 Total Market Rate Residential Units ,045 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS ,115 POPULATION ,054 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 107, , , , ,018 Office: Urban , ,722 Low Density Office 0 85, , , , ,322 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial 294, ,170 1,002, , ,850 3,593,540 Data Center 180, , , , ,000 Retail 0 210, ,046 60,827 35, ,322 Retail: Urban ,012 16,638 19,386 73,036 Other Non-Public 0 20, , , ,661 Other Public Hotel , ,000 85, ,000 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 474,000 1,200,442 1,962,428 2,054,357 1,229,394 6,920,621 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1,096 3,265 4,850 4,551 2,916 16,677 Figure 162. Scenario3 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results Summary of Net Growth and Fiscal Results in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 3: Loudoun Medium Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $15 $53 $97 $151 $185 $500 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $6 $40 $85 $129 $154 $413 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $8 $13 $12 $22 $31 $87 114

124 Figure 163. Scenario 4 Multi-Year Growth Intervals Summary of Net Growth in Multi-Year Intervals by Scenario LOUDOUN GATEWAY-AIRPORT STATION SERVICE DISTRICT SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High RESIDENTIAL UNITS TOTAL Single Family Detached Suburban Single Family Detached Rural Single Family Attached Multi-family Attached ,349 Multi-family Attached: Urban Multi-family Stacked Group Quarters TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS ,349 Total Market Rate Residential Units ,265 Total Affordable Residential Units TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS ,349 POPULATION ,485 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NONRESIDENTIAL GROSS SQUARE FEET High Density Office 0 114, , , , ,321 Office: Urban , ,952 Low Density Office 0 91, , , , ,763 Heavy Industrial Flex/Industrial 294, ,543 1,199,322 1,204, ,726 4,281,578 Data Center 180, , , , ,455 Retail 0 241, ,261 67,666 39, ,364 Retail: Urban ,453 15,379 18,309 72,141 Other Non-Public 0 22, , , ,116 Other Public Hotel , , , ,347 TOTAL GROSS SQUARE FEET 474,000 1,311,110 2,273,135 2,486,385 1,535,407 8,080,037 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1,096 3,473 5,370 5,369 3,507 18,814 Figure 164. Scenario4 Multi-Year Intervals: Fiscal Results SCENARIO 4: Loudoun High Category TOTAL Total Revenues (in $millions) $15 $57 $107 $171 $213 $563 Total Expenditures (in $millions) $6 $43 $95 $147 $179 $470 Total Net Fiscal Impacts (in $millions) $8 $14 $13 $24 $34 $93 115

125 APPENDIX B: DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERISTICS BY PRODUCT TYPE Assumptions about development characteristics (real property valuations, vacancy rates, household sizes, square feet per employee) are drawn primarily from the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Residential Product Types The definitions provided by the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee for the residential product types included in the analysis are defined below: Single-Family Detached (SFD): A dwelling that is not attached to any other dwelling by any means. This category includes accessory dwelling units and mobile homes. The distinction between suburban SFDs and Rural SFDs is made based on which planning subarea the unit is in: o Suburban: SFD factors apply to the Potomac, Sterling, Ashburn, Dulles, Leesburg, and Route 7 West planning subareas. Route 7 West is included because the majority of its population resides in incorporated towns. o Rural: SFD factors apply to the Northwest, Rt. 15 North, Rt. 15 South, and Southwest planning subareas. Single-Family Attached (SFA): Dwelling units in a variety of attached configurations, including townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, and quadraplexes, where each unit has their own ground floor external entrance. Multi Family (MF): A building containing multiple dwelling units. There are two subcategories: o Multi Family Attached (MFA): Commonly referred to as garden style, mid rise, and high rise condominiums/apartments. A group of dwelling units contained within a building, where each dwelling unit in the building generally consists of a single floor or level, and each unit is accessed by one or more common entrances leading directly from the outdoors at ground level, except that a ground floor dwelling unit may have its own ground floor external entrance. o Multi Family Stacked (MFST): Commonly referred to as stacked townhomes, oneover twos, and two over twos. A grouping of dwelling units where each unit within the grouping has its own ground floor entrance or shares a ground floor entrance with only an adjacent unit. At least one dwelling unit within the grouping contains 2 or more stories and is situated over or under another dwelling unit. Group Quarters (GQ): A Group Quarter (GQ) is a place where people live in a group living arrangement. Examples include nursing homes, congregate care, college dormitories, homeless shelters, and detention centers. Note: Independent-living age-restricted units are not considered group quarters. 116

126 Consistent with past modeling of the impact of Metrorail development, adjustments are made to assumptions for new multifamily development located near Metrorail stations (within ¼ mile). Valuation premium percentages are applied to the assessed values expected for development elsewhere to reflect expected higher values for development near these stations. Adjustments to other characteristics also are made to reflect differences in household sizes, student generation rates, and vacancy rates. Figure 165. Variation in Residential Product Types Near Metrorail Stations Household Sizes Student Generation Rates Vacancy Rates Urban within ¼ mile of the Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway Stations Valuation Premium Multifamily Attached % 10% Elsewhere in the County Multifamily Attached % n/a Note: the student generation rates shown for multifamily attached units located elsewhere is 90% of the rates used for the Capital Intensity Factor and shown in the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines, as described below. Rental vs. Owned MF Units Differences in valuations are significant between rental and owned multifamily units. After extensive quantitative and qualitative research, the below splits were decided upon for future multifamily developments. Figure 166. Variation of Renter vs Owner-Occupied Split in Multi-Family Units Near Metrorail Stations Affordable Dwelling Units (ADUs) Consistent with County policy, 12.5% of Suburban Single-Family Detached units and 12.5% of Single Family Attached units are modeled as affordable dwelling units. All multi-family unit types are modeled at a 6.25% affordable share. Age Restricted A portion (18%) of multi family attached units are modeled as age restricted. Designating some units as age restricted within the model allows fiscal impact calculations to reflect 1) that these units do not create demand for school facilities and 2) any differences in assessed values compared to non age restricted units. LCPS Enrollment Forecasts Forecasts of LCPS enrollment are developed assuming 90% of the student generation rates developed for Loudoun County s Capital Intensity Factor (CIF). These rates represent all children in school (whether in LCPS or otherwise). Applying 90% to the rates ensures that only the students that would have an impact on LCPS operating expenditures are counted. 117

127 Further demographics for residential product types can be found in Error! Reference source not found.. Figure 167. Residential Product Types Product Type Sources Household Size Market Rate Single-Family Detached-Suburban Single-Family Detached-Rural Single-Family Attached Multi-Family Attached, Renter Multi-Family Attached, Owner Multi-Family Attached Urban (within ¼ mile from Metrorail), Renter Multi-Family Attached Urban (within ¼ mile from Metrorail), Owner Student Generation Rate Vacancy Rate Assessed Value % $683, % $827, % $473,100 1, % $176,300 1, % $331,300 2, % $193,900 2, % $364,400 Multi-Family Stacked % $332,600 Market Rate Age Restricted Multi-Family 1, % $141,000 Attached, Renter Multi-Family 1, % $264,800 Attached, Owner Multi-Family Attached Urban (within ¼ mile from Metrorail), Renter 2, % $155,100 Multi-Family Attached Urban (within ¼ mile from Metrorail), Owner 2, % $291,

128 Product Type Sources Household Size Affordable Dwelling Units Single-Family Detached-Suburban Single-Family Attached Multi-Family Attached, Renter Multi-Family Attached, Owner Multi-Family Attached Urban (within ¼ mile from Metrorail), Renter Multi-Family Attached Urban (within ¼ mile from Metrorail), Owner Student Generation Rate Vacancy Rate Assessed Value 1, % $210,400 1, % $157,000 1, % $104,200 1, % $107, % $104, % $107,700 Multi-Family Stacked 1, % $137,100 Market Rate Age Restricted Multi-Family 1, % $83,300 Attached, Renter Multi-Family Attached, Owner 1, % $92,900 Notes: Student generation rates for urban multi family are derived from Clarion Associates, November 30, All other student generation rates are set at 90 percent of the value shown in the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Valuation premiums do not apply to affordable dwelling units within ¼ mile of Metrorail stations. Sources: 1. Loudoun County Fiscal Impact Committee, 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines 2. Clarion Associates, November 30, Loudoun County Commissioner of the Revenue 4. Loudoun County Commissioner of the Revenue and Department of Management and Budget 5. Loudoun County Department of Family Services and Department of Management and Budget 6. Loudoun County Department of Management and Budget 119

129 Nonresidential Product Types The definitions provided by the 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee for the nonresidential product types included in the analysis are defined below: Office: Any building that will provide office space or serve an administrative function for public or local government use. This category often includes buildings that contain a small amount of street access retail without mixed-use or special zoning. o High Density: Five or more stories. o Low Density: One to four stories. Flex/Industrial: Buildings adapted for a combination of uses such as light manufacturing/ assemblage, warehousing, distribution and maintenance facilities, which often include some associated office space. Data Center: Facilities that store, manage, and process digital data and are used to house computer and network systems, infrastructure performance monitoring systems, electrical power and cooling equipment, internet-related equipment and services, and data communications connections. Retail: Any space used for retail commercial purposes, including shopping centers, shopping malls, restaurants, theaters, car dealerships, banks, gas/convenience stations, car wash and automobile services. Heavy Industrial: Heavy industrial facilities can include quarries, power plants, refineries and large manufacturing complexes. Other: This category includes public facilities such as schools, libraries and courts. Also includes: churches, funeral homes, childcare centers, self-storage units, and other miscellaneous nonresidential buildings. Hotels, universities, hospitals and stand-alone recreation facilities are in this category. There are two subcategories, allowing a distinction between governmental facilities, which are largely driven by population growth and do not generate tax revenues, and all other development that does not fit within the categories above. o Other Public: Governmental facilities. o Other Non-Public: Other types of nonresidential development. Hotels are separated out as a development type to allow the demand for hotels to be forecasted separately and for the fiscal differences for this unique product type to be reflected. One fiscal difference is that hotels generate Transient Occupancy Taxes (TOT). Examples of other differences include basing forecasts of development and employees on room demand, and the ability to attribute BPOL Hotels and Motels revenue directly to this development. Consistent with past modeling of the impact of Metrorail development, adjustments are made to assumptions for new office and retail development located near Metrorail stations (within ¼ mile). 120

130 Valuation premium percentages are applied to the assessed values expected for development elsewhere to reflect expected higher values for development near these stations. Adjustments to other characteristics also are made to reflect differences in the square feet per employee and vacancy rates. Figure 168. Variation in Nonresidential Product Types Near Metrorail Stations Square Feet per Employee Vacancy Rates Valuation Premium Urban within ¼ mile of the Ashburn and Loudoun Gateway Stations Office % 10% Retail % 5% Elsewhere in the County High Density Office % n/a Retail % n/a Further demographics for nonresidential product types can be found in Error! Reference source not found.. Figure 169. Nonresidential Product Type Product Type Sources Gross Square Feet per Employee Vacancy Rate Assessed Value per Gross Square Foot Office-High Density % $160 Office-Urban (within ¼ mile 2, % $176 from Metrorail Station) Office-Low Density % $160 Light Industrial % $99 Heavy Industrial 1, % $99 Date Centers 1 3, % $214 Retail % $221 Retail-Urban (within ¼ mile 2, % $232 from Metrorail Stations) Other-Non-Public 1, % $250 Other-Public % n/a Hotel 2, 3 1,000 n/a $116 Non-taxable real property tends to fall into the Other-Non Public category. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in the assessed value, to $230 per square foot, is applied within the model to this category to account for non-taxable uses. Sources: 1. Loudoun County Fiscal Impact Committee, 2017 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines 2. Clarion Associates, November 30, Loudoun County Commissioner of the Revenue 4. Loudoun County Commissioner of the Revenue and Department of Management and Budget 121

131 5. Loudoun County Department of Management and Budget Vacant Land The fiscal model also calculates real property revenues for vacant land. Average values of $182,000 per acre in the Suburban and Transition Policy Areas, and $16,000 per acre in the remainder of the County are applied in the fiscal model. These figures incorporate the impact of land use taxation. 122

132 APPENDIX C: CAPITAL FACILITY NEEDS AND OFFSETTING REVENUES Capital Needs Future growth typically results in the need for additional public facilities (e.g., schools, parks). Capital needs, including the number and types of facilities, are primarily generated utilizing the 2016 Capital Facility Standards. Using population forecasts, these standards generate the incremental amount of demand for new facilities each year. The fiscal model also incorporates adjustments, to better reflect capital facility needs: In some cases, increased jobs in the County generate a need for capital facilities. Examples include public safety facilities and space to support general government functions. Transportation facilities (such as roads) are not currently covered by the Capital Facility Standards. To obtain capital need estimates, the County s Department of Transportation and Infrastructure provided estimates of infrastructure needs and associated costs. This approach allows the County s costs associated with road and other transportation improvements to be incorporated. While Capital Facility Standards exist for school facilities, Loudoun County Public School provided estimates of the number of schools by type for each scenario. This allows LCPS to directly evaluate needs based on the impact of planned land use and development forecasts. Estimated Land Needed for Capital Facilities In addition to calculating the incremental additional facilities needed as a result of development, the model also estimates the land needed for those facilities. Land requirements reflect the assumptions used to develop Loudoun County s 2017 Capital Intensity Factor (CIF), which draws upon the 2016 Capital Facility Standards. These land requirements, along with the Capital Facility Standards, reflect the current suburban model of development. If facilities are developed with a more urban character and smaller footprints, the amount of land needed could be less. Capital Costs Capital costs are calculated based on facility and land cost assumptions used for the 2017 CIF, adjusted to the 2016 base year. Facility costs are based on those shown in the CIF, reduced by 4.7% to account for inflation from 2016 to

133 A per acre land cost of $610,000 was determined using the weighted average of land costs in the Ashburn, Dulles, and Leesburg planning subareas. This weighted average reflects the remaining vacant developable land in each planning subarea. Allocating Costs to Nonresidential as well as Residential Development For facilities that serve both nonresidential and residential development, a portion of the costs are allocated to nonresidential development. To do this, the current residential standard is used as the starting point, with the allocation of costs to the nonresidential and residential sectors based on the proportion of total population and total jobs in the County. Proffers and Other Revenues Available to Pay for Capital Costs Proffers are voluntary contributions provided to the County to help offset the costs of future capital facilities. Provided as part of rezonings in the Suburban Policy Area only, proffers are one source of revenue to offset capital costs. The fiscal impact model includes proffers for capital facilities (including cash, and in kind provision of land and/or structures). Conversely, since all County capital costs are modeled, costs not offset by proffers, for example, those resulting from development outside of the Suburban Policy Area, from by right development, and from Affordable Dwelling Units (ADUs), also are included in the fiscal model. For those units where proffers can help offset capital costs, the proffer contribution is modeled at 100% of those costs, consistent with County policy. Proffers that do not offset costs incurred by County government are not included in the model. For example, proffers can be provided to volunteer fire and rescue stations. These stations are independent entities with their own budgets. The fire and rescue proffers do not offset expenses appearing in the county budget, so they will not be included in the fiscal model. More generally, the model reflects the impact of any targeted revenues or other means to pay for capital facilities. This is particularly important for transportation costs, where other revenues are available (Northern Virginia Transportation Authority, NVTA) and the responsibility to develop infrastructure is shared with the state. For road and interchange development costs, the model incorporates only that portion of these costs paid by the County, 31%. Capital Costs from By-Right Residential Development By-right residential development refers to housing units that can be constructed based on existing zoning. This number of units, sometimes referred to as the number of base density units, can be built on residentially zoned land regardless of whether a rezoning increases the total number of residential units allowed. To account for the capital costs associated with these units in the Suburban Policy Area, the 124

134 model uses an estimate of 0.15 units per vacant acre outside of the Metrorail Service District, and 0.05 units per vacant acre within the Metrorail Service District, but outside of the Station Service Districts. The land within the Station Service Districts was originally zoned for nonresidential uses only, thus no by-right residential uses are associated with this land. Capital Facility and Infrastructure Deficits As noted above, the fiscal modeling and analysis will focus on the impact of future development, comparing the fiscal impacts under the proposed Loudoun 2040 Plan scenarios and current Revised General Plan. Because any current deficits will be present regardless of how development occurs in the future, the costs to address these deficits are the same regardless of changes to the Plan. 125

135 APPENDIX D: CAPITAL FACILITY STANDARDS Capital assumptions are shown below. See the bottom of the figure for model exceptions. Figure Capital Facility Standards 126

136 127

137 Capital Facility Building Square Footage Up to Acres Standard District Park 5, Parks for the County Recreational Trails N/A N/A 0.4 miles per 1,000 population Group Home 8, Group Home for the County The Fiscal Impact Model does not model the following facilities as the County currently has the number of facilities anticipated to serve growth and does not anticipate constructing more: Animal Shelter Juvenile Detention Center Youth Shelter Emergency Homeless Shelter Adolescent Independent Living Residence Recycling Drop Off Center Special Waste Drop Off Center The Fiscal Impact Model includes a maximum number of the following facilities, per the County s plan to provide the following number of facilities to serve growth. Recreation Center: Maximum 6 per County (3 remaining) Satellite Maintenance Facility: Maximum 3 per County (2 remaining) Regional Park: Maximum 5 per County (1 remaining) District Park: Maximum 8 per County (3 remaining) Group Home: Maximum 1 per County (1 remaining) 128

138 APPENDIX E: MAPS Map 1. Revised General Plan Policy Areas - Countywide 129

139 Map 2. Proposed Plan Policy Area Map - Countywide 130