2018 Southwest Business Forum: The Regional Economy
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1 2018 Southwest Business Forum: The Regional Economy Dr. Robert J. Sonora Professor of Economics School of Business Fort Lewis College January 11, 2018
2 Overview Population Labor Market Annual Income Sector Income & Employment Transfer Payments & Poverty Microeconomic Real Estate Tourism Energy Banking Summary
3 Overview Overview: 2018 This year concentrate on the LPC-SJC Micro-Plex Still, Tempered optimism LPC doing OK SJC less so: economic cointegration Questions persist about strength of labor markets, real income income, output Local Local macroeconomy mixed Labor markets: mixed regional demographics Real estate and construction still recovering from Resource prices will be drag? 10 year oil futures still less than $55/bbl, county public goods
4 Population Population: La Plata & San Juan, NM Source: US Census Bureau
5 Labor Market Unemployment Rate: La Plata County Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
6 Labor Market Details Unemployment Rate: La Plata County Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
7 Labor Market Unemployment Rate: San Juan, NM Source: BLS, Department of Labor
8 Labor Market Details Unemployment Rate: San Juan, NM Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
9 Labor Market Labor Force: La Plata County Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
10 Labor Market Labor Force: San Juan, NM Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
11 Labor Market Employment: La Plata County Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
12 Labor Market Employment: San Juan, NM Source: BLS, Department of Labor & author calculations
13 Labor Market Employment-Population Ratio: La Plata & San Juan Source: BLS, Department of Labor & Census
14 Labor Market LPC Unemployment Rate and Employment-Population Ratio Source: BLS, Department of Labor & Census
15 Annual Income Real Per Capita Income (2009=100) Source: BEA, Department of Commerce
16 Annual Income Real Per Capita Income Growth (2009=100) Source: BEA, Department of Commerce
17 Sector Income & Employment La Plata Private Employment Shares Source: BLS, Department of Labor
18 Sector Income & Employment La Plata Private Employment Growth Source: BLS, Department of Labor is annual average growth rate
19 Sector Income & Employment La Plata Private Income Shares Source: BLS, Department of Labor
20 Sector Income & Employment La Plata Private Income Growth Source: BLS, Department of Labor is annual average growth rate
21 Sector Income & Employment San Juan Private Employment Shares Source: BLS, Department of Labor
22 Sector Income & Employment San Juan Private Employment Growth Source: BLS, Department of Labor is annual average growth rate
23 Sector Income & Employment San Juan Private Income Shares Source: BLS, Department of Labor
24 Sector Income & Employment San Juan Private Income Growth Source: BLS, Department of Labor is annual average growth rate
25 Sector Income & Employment La Plata Government Income: % Total Employee Source: BLS, Department of Labor
26 Sector Income & Employment La Plata Government Income: % Total Income Source: BLS, Department of Labor
27 Transfer Payments & Poverty Social Security (2000=100): $s per capita Source: BEA, Department of Commerce
28 Transfer Payments & Poverty SNAP (2000=100): $s per capita Source: BEA, Department of Commerce
29 Transfer Payments & Poverty Unemployment Insurance (2000=100): $s per capita Source: BEA, Department of Commerce
30 Transfer Payments & Poverty Poverty: % Population (unable to meet basic needs) Source: US Census
31 Transfer Payments & Poverty Burdened: % Population (> 30% income on rent/mtg) Source: US Census
32 Microeconomic Real Estate Real Median Home Prices (2007=100): La Plata Combined La Plata Combined = Durango, Bayfield, Breen, Hesperus, Ignacio, Kline, Marvel, Red Mesa and Vallecito, through 2017Q3
33 Microeconomic Real Estate Percent Below Highest Real Price: La Plata Combined La Plata Combined = Durango, Bayfield, Breen, Hesperus, Ignacio, Kline, Marvel, Red Mesa and Vallecito, through 2017Q3
34 Microeconomic Real Estate Days on Market: La Plata Combined Source: Durango Area Association of Realtors, through 2017Q3
35 Microeconomic Real Estate Number Sold: La Plata Combined Source: Durango Area Association of Realtors, through 2017Q3
36 Microeconomic Real Estate Housing Permits Source: US Census Bureau, through 2017Q3
37 Microeconomic Real Estate Foreclosures Source: CO Dept of Local Affairs, through 2017Q3
38 Microeconomic Tourism Durango-Silverton Train (2010M6 = 100) Source: Durango and Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad, * 2017 through August
39 Microeconomic Tourism Mesa Verde (2010M6 = 100) Source: National Park Service, * 2017 through August
40 Microeconomic Tourism Real Retail Tax Revenues (2010=100) Source: CO Department of Revenue, 2017 through September
41 Microeconomic Energy La Plata Energy: Wells, Oil, Natural Gas (2010 = 100) Source: CO Oil and Gas Information System & DoE
42 Microeconomic Banking 4 Bank Index Net Loans & Leases (Assets) & Total Deposits (Liabilities) (2007 = 100) Source: FDIC, Four Bank Index (100=2007)
43 Microeconomic FLC Fort Lewis Enrollment: Students FLC: Institutional Research
44 Summary Summary We are in a holding pattern, LPC OK outside is a question mark Still some concerns in labor market, real income, income gap, real estate recovering Couple of clouds outside Region 9: FED: Likely to hold course: FFR up basis points weaker dollar and strengthening global economy 800 lb gorilla: the Trump effect Supply side taxes growth? Jobs? Debt: Borrowing to increase, P B i B i MTG? Deregulation growth? Trade and immigration inflation?
45 2018 SWBF: Regional Summary Thank you
La Plata County Combined** $672,187 $536,875 $2,688, $1,200,000 $415,000 LAND ( In Town )
STATISTICS Year 2015 DATES: 1-1-2015-12-31-2015 Number Avg. Days on Property Type Average Price Median Price Total Volume * Sold Market High Price Low Price Residential Sales * IN TOWN HOMES (La Plata
$500,000 - $999,999 La Plata County Combined $ - $ - $ $ - $ - LAND (IN TOWN)
Quarter: 1st DATES: January 1, 2006 to March 31, 2006 Durango Area Association of REALTORS, Inc, Avg. Days on (La Plata County Only)** Durango $ 459,950 $ 394,000 $ 13,98,500 30 213 $ 980,000 $ 218,000
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