The Schelling Lecture: U.S. Economic Outlook and Policymaking
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1 The Schelling Lecture: U.S. Economic Outlook and Policymaking Jason Furman Senior Fellow, PIIE University of Maryland School of Public Policy College Park, MD April 19, 2017 Peterson Institute for International Economics 1750 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036
2 Outline 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? 2. Do Economists Ever Agree on an Answer? 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? 4. How Should Policymakers Handle Uncertainty?
3 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Lets You Focus on the Big Questions Like Slowing Income Growth Source: Census Bureau; author's calculations.
4 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? And the Small Ones Like Sufficient Broadband for Mobile Devices
5 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Some Other Issues I Worked on in the Obama Administration Preventing a second Great Depression
6 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Some Other Issues I Worked on in the Obama Administration Preventing a second Great Depression Post Office restructuring
7 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Some Other Issues I Worked on in the Obama Administration Preventing a second Great Depression Post Office restructuring Deficit reduction Financial crisis Wall Street Reform Business tax reform Affordable Care Act Health Delivery System Reform Minimum wage Overtime regulations Patent reform Trade Infrastructure College financing Defined-benefit pensions Climate change Renewable fuels regulations Air traffic control reform Competition policy Cell-phone unlocking Poverty Criminal justice reform Autonomous vehicles Artificial intelligence Immigration College financing Preschool Sanctions on Russia Chinese credit expansion Currency manipulation Inequality Retirement savings regulations
8 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics, Politics, and Combining the Two: The Example of Climate Change Pure Economic Answer: Ask 10 economists, and they will likely all agree on a carbon tax.
9 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics, Politics, and Combining the Two: The Example of Climate Change Pure Economic Answer: Ask 10 economists, and they will likely all agree on a carbon tax. Pure Political Answer: Poll 1,000 people, and they might say a tax credit for efficient homes.
10 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics, Politics, and Combining the Two: The Example of Climate Change Pure Economic Answer: Ask 10 economists, and they will likely all agree on a carbon tax. Pure Political Answer: Poll 1,000 people, and they might say a tax credit for efficient homes. Combining Politics and Economics
11 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics, Politics, and Combining the Two: The Example of Climate Change Pure Economic Answer: Ask 10 economists, and they will likely all agree on a carbon tax. Pure Political Answer: Poll 1,000 people, and they might say a tax credit for efficient homes. Combining Politics and Economics 1. Better description of the best policy: maybe a future fee instead of a carbon tax.
12 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics, Politics, and Combining the Two: The Example of Climate Change Pure Economic Answer: Ask 10 economists, and they will likely all agree on a carbon tax. Pure Political Answer: Poll 1,000 people, and they might say a tax credit for efficient homes. Combining Politics and Economics 1. Better description of the best policy: maybe a future fee instead of a carbon tax. 2. Combine multiple policies to address concerns: E.g., carbon tax together with a rebate, eliminating regulations, and taxing imported carbon.
13 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics, Politics, and Combining the Two: The Example of Climate Change Pure Economic Answer: Ask 10 economists, and they will likely all agree on a carbon tax. Pure Political Answer: Poll 1,000 people, and they might say a tax credit for efficient homes. Combining Politics and Economics 1. Better description of the best policy: maybe a future fee instead of a carbon tax. 2. Combine multiple policies to address concerns: E.g., carbon tax together with a rebate, eliminating regulations, and taxing imported carbon. 3. Adopt the nth best alternative hopefully n is not too high!
14 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics Should Be One Input Into Decisions Illustrative Example: Alternative Stimulus Tax Cuts Effectiveness (per economists) Making Work Pay Fully Refundable 100
15 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics Should Be One Input Into Decisions Illustrative Example: Alternative Stimulus Tax Cuts Effectiveness (per economists) Making Work Pay Fully Refundable Making Work Pay Not Refundable
16 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics Should Be One Input Into Decisions Illustrative Example: Alternative Stimulus Tax Cuts Effectiveness (per economists) Making Work Pay Fully Refundable Making Work Pay Not Refundable Payroll Tax Cut 80
17 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics Should Be One Input Into Decisions Illustrative Example: Alternative Stimulus Tax Cuts Effectiveness (per economists) Likelihood (per strategists) Making Work Pay Fully Refundable Making Work Pay Not Refundable 100 5% % Payroll Tax Cut 80 80%
18 1. What is So Exciting About Economic Policy? Economics Should Be One Input Into Decisions Illustrative Example: Alternative Stimulus Tax Cuts Effectiveness (per economists) Likelihood (per strategists) Overall Score (per President) Making Work Pay Fully Refundable Making Work Pay Not Refundable 100 5% % 30 Payroll Tax Cut 80 80% 72
19 2. Do Economists Ever Agree on an Answer? Bipartisan Agreement in Economics
20 2. Do Economists Ever Agree on an Answer? Some Examples of Broad (Albeit Not Universal) Agreement Micro Trade produces net gains but concentrated harms Climate change can be mitigated most efficiently by a Pigouvian tax
21 2. Do Economists Ever Agree on an Answer? Some Examples of Broad (Albeit Not Universal) Agreement Micro Trade produces net gains but concentrated harms Climate change can be mitigated most efficiently by a Pigouvian tax Macro In the long run the economy tends towards full employment, but there can be large deviations in the short run Fiscal stimulus or lower interest rates expand aggregate demand, increasing output in the short run but not in the long run
22 2. Do Economists Ever Agree on an Answer? Debate Among Economists Is Often Narrower Than the Political Debate Do Tax Cuts Pay For Themselves? More progressive economists might argue that labor tax cuts only pay for about 5% of themselves. More conservative economists might argue that labor tax cuts pay for about 20% of themselves. All economists would agree that the details matter for example, how and potentially when the tax cuts are paid for.
23 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy Alternative Measures of the Identical Concept: Economic Growth in 2016:Q4 Gross Domestic Product: 2.1%
24 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy Alternative Measures of the Identical Concept: Economic Growth in 2016:Q4 Gross Domestic Product: 2.1% Gross Domestic Income: 1.0%
25 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy Alternative Measures of the Identical Concept: Economic Growth in 2016:Q4 Gross Domestic Product: 2.1% Gross Domestic Income: 1.0% BEST GUESS: Gross Domestic Output : 1.5%
26 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: Job Growth in March 2017 Nonfarm payroll employment increased 98,000
27 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: Job Growth in March 2017 Nonfarm payroll employment increased 98,000 Number of people employed increased 472,000
28 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: Job Growth in March 2017 Nonfarm payroll employment increased 98,000 Number of people employed increased 472,000 BEST GUESS: 98,000
29 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: Job Growth in March 2017 Nonfarm payroll employment increased 98,000 Number of people employed increased 472,000 BEST GUESS: 98,000 (or maybe 92%/8% so 128,000)
30 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: How Is the Economy Doing Now? Employment growth in Q1: 1.5% GDP growth in Q1 (Atlanta Fed GDP NOW): 0.5%
31 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: How Is the Economy Doing Now? Employment growth in Q1: 1.5% GDP growth in Q1 (Atlanta Fed GDP NOW): 0.5% Soft data : ISM manufacturing: +2.7 from Dec to Mar Hard data : IP manufacturing: +0.3% from Dec to Mar
32 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Example of the Macroeconomy (cont.) Alternative Measures of Similar Concepts: How Is the Economy Doing Now? Employment growth in Q1: 1.5% GDP growth in Q1 (Atlanta Fed GDP NOW): 0.5% Soft data : ISM manufacturing: +3.2 from Dec to Mar Hard data : IP manufacturing: +0.3% from Dec to Mar BEST GUESS: Reasonably strong Q1
33 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Sources of Median Income Slowdown Bottom 90 Percent Share of Income, Percent Source: World Wealth and Income Database.
34 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Sources of Median Income Slowdown (cont.) Labor Productivity Growth, Nonfarm Business Sector Percent Change, Annual Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs; author s calculations.
35 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Sources of Median Income Slowdown (cont.) Real Median Family Income, Dollars (Log Scale) 200, ,000 Continuation of Trend No Inequality Increase $10,000 (15%) 50,000 Actual 25, Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; author's calculations.
36 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Sources of Median Income Slowdown (cont.) Real Median Family Income, Dollars (Log Scale) 200, ,000 Continuation of Trend No Productivity Slowdown $45,000 (65%) 50,000 Actual 25, Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; author's calculations.
37 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? a. Data Description Sources of Median Income Slowdown (cont.) 100,000 Real Median Family Income, Dollars (Log Scale) 200,000 Continuation of Trend No Inequality Increase $61,000 (89%) 50,000 Actual No Productivity Slowdown 25, Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; author's calculations.
38 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? b. Economic Theory Example of Gains from Trade from Two-Sided Spectrum Auctions Television broadcasters received free rights to spectrum in some cases broadcasting to as few as 10,000s of viewers. Wireless broadband providers were willing to pay large amounts for this spectrum to serve millions of customers. But coordination issues prevented a simple market solution. Patchworks of spectrum less valuable than contiguous spectrum.
39 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? b. Economic Theory Example of Gains from Trade from Two-Sided Spectrum Auctions Television broadcasters received free rights to spectrum in some cases broadcasting to as few as 10,000s of viewers. Wireless broadband providers were willing to pay large amounts for this spectrum to serve millions of customers. But coordination issues prevented a simple market solution. Patchworks of spectrum less valuable than contiguous spectrum. Solution: (i) government buys spectrum from willing sellers; (ii) moves some existing broadcasters and pays them compensation; and (iii) auctions off spectrum to willing buyers. Win, Win, Win, Win: 84 MHz of spectrum reallocated. Winners include broadcasters who sold spectrum, providers who bought spectrum, consumers who use spectrum, and taxpayers who received $5 billion.
40 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? b. Economic Theory Departures from Simple Model Incomplete Information Purchasers of insurance know more about their health status than sellers of insurance. Potential solutions include public provision or mandated purchase. Behavioral Economics Encouraging savings with incentives or defaults? Auto-enrollment for public programs?
41 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? c. Causal Evidence Example of Taxes on Tobacco Products
42 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known? d. Building Models to Simulate Alternatives
43 4. How Should Policymakers Handle Uncertainty? Some Lessons About Policymaking Under Uncertainty 1. Be clear about your uncertainty and present a range of views. 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known?
44 4. How Should Policymakers Handle Uncertainty? Some Lessons About Policymaking Under Uncertainty 1. Be clear about your uncertainty and present a range of views. 2. Integrate evidence and evaluation into the policy itself. e.g. Medicare Innovation Center 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer is Not Known?
45 4. How Should Policymakers Handle Uncertainty? Some Lessons About Policymaking Under Uncertainty 1. Be clear about your uncertainty and present a range of views. 2. Integrate evidence and evaluation into the policy itself. e.g. Medicare Innovation Center 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer 3. Create incentives is Not for Known? the market to figure out the right solutions. e.g. a carbon tax or ending preferential tax treatment for marginal health insurance
46 4. How Should Policymakers Handle Uncertainty? Some Lessons About Policymaking Under Uncertainty 1. Be clear about your uncertainty and present a range of views. 2. Integrate evidence and evaluation into the policy itself. e.g. Medicare Innovation Center 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer 3. Create incentives is Not for Known? the market to figure out the right solutions. e.g. a carbon tax or ending preferential tax treatment for marginal health insurance 4. Make policies more automatic. e.g. unemployment insurance benefits automatically extended when unemployment is high/rising
47 4. How Should Policymakers Handle Uncertainty? Some Lessons About Policymaking Under Uncertainty 1. Be clear about your uncertainty and present a range of views. 2. Integrate evidence and evaluation into the policy itself. e.g. Medicare Innovation Center 3. What Can Economists Do When the Answer 3. Create incentives is Not for Known? the market to figure out the right solutions. e.g. a carbon tax or ending preferential tax treatment for marginal health insurance 4. Make policies more automatic. e.g. unemployment insurance benefits automatically extended when unemployment is high/rising 5. Not every problem has a solution.
48 The Schelling Lecture: U.S. Economic Outlook and Policymaking Jason Furman Senior Fellow, PIIE University of Maryland School of Public Policy College Park, MD April 19, 2017 Peterson Institute for International Economics 1750 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036
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