Measuring Suburban Poverty: Concepts and Data Sources Hofstra University September 26, 2013

Transcription

1 Measuring Suburban Poverty: Concepts and Data Sources Hofstra University September 26, 2013 Trudi Renwick Poverty Statistics Branch Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division U.S. Bureau of the Census

2 Sources of Poverty Data Current Population Survey - national Decennial Census - historical American Community Survey Single year - geographies 65,000+ Multi-year - smaller areas Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates School district estimates 2

3 Official Poverty Measure The 2012 official poverty rate for the nation was 15.0 percent No change from last year 46.5 million people in poverty An increase of 2.7 percentage points since 2007 Official poverty threshold for a family with two adults, two children in 2012 was $23,283 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Detailed tables, historical tables, customized tables using Table Creator 3

4 Real Median Household Income and Poverty Rate: 1967 to Income in thousands (2012 dollars) Real median household income Recession $51, $42, % Percent 15% 15.0% 10% 5% 14.2% Poverty rate 0% Note: Income rounded to nearest $100. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1968 to 2013 Annual Social and Economic Supplements. 5

5 The Current Population Survey enables researchers to look at poverty over long time periods for larger geographic entities. Nationally, we can see a trend toward a larger share of the poor living in suburbs. 100% Share of the Poor living in Suburbs: % 80% Axis Title 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Outside metropolitan statistical areas Outside principal cities Inside principal cities 20% 10% 0% Source: Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement 5

6 Poverty rates in suburban areas continue to be lower than inside principal cities or outside metropolitan areas. Poverty Rates Inside principal cities Outside principal cities Outside metropolitan statistical areas Source: Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement 6

7 Nationally over the past twelve years, poverty rates and the number of poor people have grown fastest in the suburbs. 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 59.5% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 50.4% 21.3% Inside Principal Cities Outside Principal Cities Nonmetro 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.9% 43.6% 32.1% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% Percent Increase in Number of Poor: % Percent Increase in Poverty Rate Source: Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement 7

8 ACS Data on Suburbs: Percent Change in Poverty Rates % 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% All families With related children under 18 years Married couple families With related children under 18 years Families with female householder, no husband present With related children under 18 years All people Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over Source: American Community Survey

9 ACS data on Nassau/Suffolk Counties 2007 to 2012 American Community Survey Poverty rates have increased in both counties but poverty rates are fairly low Nassau County up from 4.4 percent in 2007 to 6.6 percent in 2012 Change between 2011 and 2012 not statistically significant Suffolk County up from 5.0 percent in 2007 to 6.9 percent in in 2012 Change between 2011 and 2012 not statistically significant While the populations of the two counties have grown about 3 percent since 2007, the number of people in poverty has grown much faster The number of people in poverty grew by almost 50 percent, from 128,000 to 190,000 (56 percent in Nassau, 43 percent in Suffolk) The number of people between 100 percent and 200 percent of the poverty level grew by 35 percent from 234,000 to 316,000 (19 percent in Nassau, 50 percent in Suffolk) Number of people below 50 percent of poverty grew by 50 percent from 56,000 to 83,000 (65% in Nassau, 40% in Suffolk) 9

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12 New poor? Difficult to answer most surveys are snapshots Only Survey of Income and Program Participation looks at poverty status over time. Most poverty spells are short Some poverty is chronic or persistent Sample not large enough to look at Suffolk County. 12

13 How does the Census Bureau measure poverty?

14 Poverty Threshold and Resources 14

15 Official Poverty Measure Thresholds Cost of a minimum food basket times three Multiplier based on 1955 consumption survey Updated each year with the CPI Same for all areas in the US Resources Gross (before-tax) cash income from all sources Unit of analysis is the family (those related by birth, marriage or adoption) and unrelated individuals 15

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17 Criticisms of Official Poverty Measure Does not distinguish between needs of workers and nonworkers Child care Other work expenses Does not reflect government policy initiatives In-kind benefits SNAP/WIC/LIHEAP Tax credits Tax policy Irregular family size adjustments Does not reflect increases in standard of living since 1955 Does not reflect new family structures: resources of unmarried partners Does not recognize variations in medical care costs and housing costs Does not reflect geographic price variations 17

18 Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) Observations from the Interagency Technical Working Group - March 2, 2010 Will not replace the official poverty measure Will not be used for resource allocation or program eligibility Census Bureau and BLS responsible for improving and updating the measure Continued research and improvement Based on NAS panel 1995 recommendations Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. research/ Short_ResearchSPM2011.pdf 20

19 Comparison of SPM and Official Poverty Estimates: % Percent 22.3% Official* SPM 20% 15% 16.1% 15.1% 18.1% 13.7% 15.5% 15.1% 10% 8.7% 5% 0% All People Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and older *Includes unrelated individuals under age 15. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. 21

20 Comparison of SPM and Official Poverty Estimates: % Percent Official* SPM 20% 20.1% 21.7% 15% 15.1% 16.1% 17.1% 13.4% 13.5% 11.4% 10% 5% 0% All People Inside principal city Outside principal city Outside MSA *Includes unrelated individuals under age 15. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. 21

21 Comparison the Distribution of People: Total Population, SPM and Official Poverty Populations: 2011 Total Population t 32.5% 52.2% 15.3% SPM 43.8% 43.4% 12.8% Official* 43.2% 39.4% 17.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Inside principal city Outside principal city Outside MSA *Includes unrelated individuals under age 15. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. 21

22 Comparing the Official and SPM Thresholds and Units Official Measure Cost of a minimum food basket times three Updated each year with the CPI Same for all areas in the US Supplemental Measure 33 rd percentile of sum of expenditures for food, clothing, and shelter, and utilities (FCSU) plus a little bit more Updated each year with most recent 5 years of data Adjusted for differences in home ownership status and geography Unit of analysis is the family (those related by birth, marriage or adoption) and unrelated individuals Unit of analysis expanded to include cohabiting partners and their relatives, unrelated children under 15, foster children under

23 Income/Resource Definition Official Gross (before-tax) cash income from all sources Supplemental Gross money income PLUS value of near-money federal in-kind benefits for FCSU SNAP, school lunch, WIC Housing subsidies LIHEAP Tax credits (EITC) MINUS federal and state income and payroll taxes and other nondiscretionary expenses Child care and other work expenses Medical out of pocket expenses Child support paid 23 23

24 Difference in SPM Rate After Including Each Element: 2011 Percentage point change in SPM rate after including each element SNAP SSI TANF -0.1 WIC -0.1 LIHEAP Child support paid 0.1 Federal income tax 0.5 FICA Work expense Medical Out of Pocket Social Security Refundable tax credits Unemployment Insurance Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. mental/research/ Short_ResearchSPM2011.pdf 22

25 Difference in SPM Rate After Including Each Element: 2011 Percentage point change in SPM rate after including each element SNAP SSI TANF -0.1 WIC -0.1 LIHEAP Child support paid 0.1 Federal income tax 0.5 FICA Work expense Medical Out of Pocket Social Security Refundable tax credits Unemployment Insurance Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. mental/research/ Short_ResearchSPM2011.pdf 22

26 Difference in SPM Rate After Including Each Element: 2011 Percentage point change in SPM rate after including each element SNAP SSI TANF -0.1 WIC -0.1 LIHEAP Child support paid 0.1 Federal income tax 0.5 FICA Work expense Medical Out of Pocket Social Security Refundable tax credits Unemployment Insurance Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. mental/research/ Short_ResearchSPM2011.pdf 22

27 Difference in SPM Rate After Including Each Element: 2011 Percentage point change in SPM rate after including each element SNAP SSI TANF -0.1 WIC -0.1 LIHEAP Child support paid 0.1 Federal income tax 0.5 FICA Work expense Medical Out of Pocket Social Security Refundable tax credits Unemployment Insurance Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. mental/research/ Short_ResearchSPM2011.pdf 22

28 Difference in SPM Rate After Including Each Element: 2011 Percentage point change in SPM rate after including each element SNAP SSI TANF -0.1 WIC -0.1 LIHEAP Child support paid 0.1 Federal income tax 0.5 FICA Work expense Medical Out of Pocket Social Security Refundable tax credits Unemployment Insurance Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. mental/research/ Short_ResearchSPM2011.pdf 22

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35 How to get data on suburbs from AFF?

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38 Contact Information Trudi Renwick