Opportunity, Responsibility and Security: Reducing Poverty and Increasing Economic Mobility

Transcription

1 Opportunity, Responsibility and Security: Reducing Poverty and Increasing Economic Mobility Ron Haskins Cabot Family Chair Brookings Institution A Presentation at Economic Opportunities for Families: A leadership Forum for State Legislators June 6, 2017

2 2 Cross-Partisan hostility: Partisans dislike the other party more Warmth toward OTHER party Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Warmth toward OWN party Source: ANES, and Marc Hetherington, Vanderbilt U.

3 3 Logic of the Report Poverty has declined, but not enough, especially among children Economic mobility is stuck and too low Three underlying correlates of poverty and mobility: family composition, work rates, and educational attainment So, we devote a chapter to trends in poverty, mobility, family composition, work, and education (Chapter 2)

4 Trends in Poverty & the Status of Economic Mobility

5 5 Official Poverty Rates for Children in Single-Mother Households, All Children, and the Elderly, Percent in Poverty Female- Headed Househol ds with children under 18 All Children Age 65 and Over 0 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty Division, CPS ASEC, Families Tables 3 and 4.

6 Income Quintile of Children When They Grow Up Relative to Their Parents Income Quintile 6

7 Trends in Family Composition

8 Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women by Education Level, Percent of Births Less than a HS Degree HS Degree Some College College Degree or more Year Source: Authors' Tabulations of data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Center for Health Statistics. VitalStats.

9 9 Changes in Women s Family Structure at Age 35, Percent of Women Year Married without children Single without children Single with children Married with children Source: Author's calculations from the decennial census (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000) and the American Community Survey (U.S. Bureau of the Census 2010)

10 Trends in Work and Wages

11 11 Employment-to-Population Ratio for Selected Populations, All men Percent Women Single never married mothers Black men Year Source: IPUMS-Current Population Survey; University of Minnesota

12 12 Cumulative Changes in Real Hourly Wages of Men, by Income Percentile, Cumulative Percent Change Since th 90th 80th 50th 10th Year Sources: Calculations from EPI calculations of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata (available at CPI-U-RS Index (available at pdf), and PCE deflator available from FRED.

13 Trends in Income for Families with Various Levels of Educational Attainment

14 14 Median Family Income of Adults Age by Education Level, $140,000 Median Family Income $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $119,714 $89,261 $57,550 $49,642 $32,171 Advanced degree Bachelor's degree Some college High school degree Less than high school $ Source: Census' Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Inflation adjusted using PCE deflator. Note: The CPS changed the phrasing of the educational attainment question in 1992, which accounts for that year's sudden drop among the less-than-high-school group. Year

15 Summary Trends in family composition, employment, and education are moving in the wrong direction for reducing poverty and increasing economic mobility

16 Policy Recommendations

17 17 Local Programs: Four Good Bets Low-Wage Work and Work Supports Family Stability (Birth Control) Skilled Employment Early Childhood Education

18 18 First, Three Cautions Personal Responsibility Federal Spending & Debt Evidence-Based Policy

19 19 What Accounts for Success? Source: Author s calculations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements (Table F-10).

20 20 Percentage of Federal Budget Spent on Major Entitlements Federal Budget: Entitlement Spending Lockout Year 62 Note: Major entitlements are Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Source: Congressional Budget Office.

21 Kids Are Getting the Short End of the Stick; It Will Get Worse 21

22 Evidence-Based Policy: Productive Investments in Children Preschool education Home visiting Teen pregnancy prevention Career academies K-12 education Second chance programs for teens Community and family-based programs for delinquents Community college interventions Small schools of choice 22

23 23 Local Programs: Four Good Bets Low-Wage Work and Work Supports Family Stability (Family Planning) Skilled Employment Early Childhood Education

24 24 Possible Solution #1: The Most Successful Way to Reduce Poverty: Combine Work and Work Supports 60% 50% 48% Poverty Rate 40% 30% 20% 10% Earned Income Only Plus Cash benefits outside the tax system (UI, child support, SSI, AFDC, TANF, GA) i.e. "the official poverty rate" Plus Food Stamps/SNAP Plus EITC & ACTC, less FICA & federal & state income taxes 38% 34% 29% 24% Plus Stimulus/recovery payments & income from other houshold members 0% Year Note: Abbreviations are as follows: Unemployment Insurance (UI), Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Government Assistance (GA), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), and Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA). Source: Thomas Gabe, Congressional Research Service, Welfare, Work, and Poverty Status of Female-Headed Families with Children:

25 Possible Solution #2: Family Stability (Family Planning) 25

26 26 Drifting into Parenthood is Common Source: Zolna, Mia, and Laura Duberstein Lindberg. Unintended pregnancy: Incidence and outcomes among young adult unmarried women in the United States, 2001 and Alan Guttmacher Institute, 2012.

27 27 Potential Benefits of Reducing Unplanned Pregnancies Reduced poverty rates Lower abortion rates Better spacing of babies Increased likelihood of prenatal care Less postpartum depression Reduced partner separation rates More education for mothers Cost savings for government Source: National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, 2014.

28 28 Unwed Childbearing by Age, Birth Rate Per 1,000 Women Age Age Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 66, No. 1.

29 29 St Louis: The CHOICE Project Women using LARCs or shots had lowest unintended pregnancy rates after 1, 2, and 3 years Source:

30 30 Possible Solution #3: Skilled Employment 4-year colleges (college prep programs) 2-year colleges Apprenticeships Certificates & Licenses Career Academies Goal: Prepare kids for skilled jobs available in the local economy

31 31 Programs: Possible Solution #4: Early Childhood Education Home Visiting Head Start State pre-k Child Care Spending about $25 billion per year (federal & state) Quality Is the Key State and Local Governments Have to Step Up