ECONOMIC DIGEST THE CONNECTICUT Economic Outlook: Steady Growth Globally, Slower Growth Yet Positive Potential for Connecticut JANUARY 2019

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1 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST Vol.24 No.1 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development JANUARY 2019 IN THIS ISSUE Economic Outlook: Steady Growth Globally, Slower Growth Yet Positive Potential for Connecticut Economic Indicators on the Overall Economy... 5 Individual Data Items Comparative Regional Data... 9 Economic Indicator Trends Help Wanted OnLine Business and Employment Changes Announced in the News Media Labor Market Areas: Nonfarm Employment Sea. Adj. Nonfarm Employment...14 Labor Force Hours and Earnings Cities and Towns: Labor Force Housing Permits Technical Notes At a Glance Economic Outlook: Steady Growth Globally, Slower Growth Yet Positive Potential for Connecticut By Alissa K. DeJonge, Vice President of Research, Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. G lobal and U.S. Overview The global economy in 2019 should continue its track of steady growth since mid However, the growth has peaked in some major economies, and risks of slower growth have risen. The World Bank projects a 3.7 percent growth rate in world output for this year, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than previously forecasted (Figure 1). Trends to note include: U.S.: Economic growth is still strong due to the effects of federal tax cuts, but 2019 growth is expected to be weaker as a result of uncertain trade environments, including the tariff negotiation with China. Europe: Affected by the ongoing Brexit negotiations, growth projections for the Euro area and the UK are also adjusted downward. Emerging Markets: Anticipated higher oil prices raise the growth prospects of many energy- exporting countries, but Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Turkey are affected by downward pressures such as geopolitical uncertainty or worsening financial conditions. Asia: China and several Asian economies are expected to experience weaker growth in 2019 under the shadow of the recent trade disputes. In November... Nonfarm Employment Connecticut... 1,702,900 Change over month % Change over year % United States ,893,000 Change over month % Change over year % Unemployment Rate Connecticut...4.1% United States...3.7% Figure 1. World Output Annual Percentage Change Projection 2019 Projection Consumer Price Index United States Change over year % 0-1 World Output United States Germany France Italy Spain Japan United Canada Kingdom Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth 2018 China THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 1

2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST The Connecticut Economic Digest is published monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development. Its purpose is to regularly provide users with a comprehensive source for the most current, up-to-date data available on the workforce and economy of the state, within perspectives of the region and nation. The annual subscription is $50. Send subscription requests to: The Connecticut Economic Digest, Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, 200 Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT Make checks payable to the Connecticut Department of Labor. Back issues are $4 per copy. The Digest can be accessed free of charge from the DOL Web site. Articles from The Connecticut Economic Digest may be reprinted if the source is credited. Please send copies of the reprinted material to the Managing Editor. The views expressed by the authors are theirs alone and may not reflect those of the DOL or DECD. Managing Editor: Jungmin Charles Joo Associate Editor: Erin C. Wilkins We would like to acknowledge the contributions of many DOL Research and DECD staff and Rob Damroth to the publication of the Digest. Connecticut Department of Labor Kurt Westby, Commissioner Andrew Condon, Ph.D., Director Office of Research 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Wethersfield, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) dol.econdigest@ct.gov Website: Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development Catherine Smith, Commissioner Bart Kollen, Deputy Commissioner David Kooris, Deputy Commissioner 450 Columbus Boulevard Suite 5 Hartford, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) decd@ct.gov Website: Across the world, the stagnant growth in working-age population and labor productivity foreshadows a more limited potential for long-term global economic growth. Coupled with fading monetary stimulation, the growth in most advanced economies is likely to decline to a rate slower than the average level before the global financial crisis in Growth in the U.S. will decline as the effects of the tariffs imposed on certain commodities are fully felt, and as tax cuts fade away in Given the relatively strong labor market in the U.S., the Federal Reserve is considering interest rate increases to curb inflation risk, thus posing downward pressure on the financial markets, although the rate hikes may not be as high as originally anticipated because the national economy has softened a bit. There is also growing evidence that the nation could see its next economic recession in The growth in China is likely to remain strong but will decline gradually. The prospects in many emerging markets and developing economies remain less than ideal as a result of the threat of regional conflicts. Policy uncertainty including rising trade barriers is a main driver of weaker growth prospects. 1 Notable Industry Trends In the United States, a number of larger industry trends will affect how businesses anticipate consumer demand, profitability and competitiveness. Some of these critical trends involve the insurance, healthcare, grocery retail, aerospace/defense and energy sectors, which are also important in Connecticut s economy. Insurance The Insurance industry is undergoing a transformation with the incorporation of technology. InsurTech companies are propelling the industry forward, innovating to create a more personalized customer experience and streamline the back office. On the front end, insurers are reaching out to younger audiences with intuitive customer interfaces and customization. For administrative, back-end segments of the industry, technology is being used to streamline claims adjustments, assess risk, and create customized pricing. Workers who have expertise in data analytics are in demand in this industry, while the use of artificial intelligence is projected to replace the need for some workers who handle claims. 2 Insurance in Connecticut: In November 2018, the National League of Cities and Schmidt Futures acknowledged Hartford as the country s premier destination for insurance technology. 3 Now that CVS has committed to keeping Aetna in Hartford, and other large corporations are looking to InsurTech startup companies for new ideas, Connecticut is seeing renewed energy for its historic industry giant, which employs more than 60,000 people in the state. Healthcare Employers and health plans are trying to offer more convenient options to their consumers by providing more ways to receive care. Telehealth, the ability to talk with a healthcare provider at any time, is starting to take hold in the industry. Another trend involves mergers among providers, so choices are becoming concentrated. There is also consolidation among doctor groups, practicing as employees of hospitals or health systems, which tends to increase prices. 2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

3 Some other trends that are improving patient quality of life, yet driving up costs in the short term, are advances in medical technology and innovation, along with the introduction of specialty drugs and gene therapies. Analysts expect in the short-term for healthcare prices to increase, although improvements will also be seen in patient outcomes and overall health. 4 The CVS-Aetna deal is also an indicator of the restructuring of the healthcare delivery system in the state and across the country. Healthcare in Connecticut: With a median resident age of 40.8 years in 2017, and ranking 6 th oldest in the country, 5 Connecticut is seeing the effects of aging baby boomers at a higher level than many other states. As this generation of people retires, they will typically have more health needs, and this will drive up healthcare costs. More than 90,000 workers were employed in ambulatory health care services, with another almost 59,000 working in hospitals in Grocery Stores A little over one year ago, the online giant Amazon purchased the Whole Foods grocery store chain. In reaction, incumbent stores such as Walmart, Costco and Target have increased online delivery and in-store pickup and have kept prices low despite high costs. While the entry of Amazon into the grocery business has the incumbents fighting for online grocery sales, customers preferences to purchase meat and produce from physical stores has kept the majority shopping in the same stores. It appears that the Whole Foods purchase by Amazon is part of a larger strategy that has many components. Still, this industry has been disrupted and the result has been increased technology and a play for customers who want to purchase goods online. 7 Grocery Stores in Connecticut: There were almost 44,000 workers in Connecticut food and beverage stores in 2017, of which grocery stores is a part. 8 Amazon s presence is growing in Connecticut; currently there is one fulfillment center in Windsor with another scheduled to open in North Haven in mid-2019, and there is one sorting center in Wallingford. 9 There are currently nine Whole Foods markets in Connecticut. 10 Aerospace and Defense This industry projects strong growth, driven by increasing commercial aircraft production due to passenger travel demand. Also, demand from the federal government reacting to geopolitical risks will boost the number of F-35s, Black Hawk helicopters, submarines and other weapons systems produced. 11 Defense in Connecticut: There are substantial worker increases planned at General Dynamics Electric Boat and United Technologies Corporation, and many other aerospace and defense companies in Connecticut because of the growing demand for their products. For instance, Pratt & Whitney, a maker of jet engines, and part of United Technologies Corporation, is currently working through a backlog of 8,000 next-generation engines. 12 Defense workers are employed in a variety of industries in the state. For example, there were almost 44,000 working in transportation equipment manufacturing in Energy The energy sector is seeing changes due to changing consumer demands and prices. After decreasing oil prices through 2018, the new year will likely bring about price hikes for home heating and gasoline. 14 Residents and small businesses are mainly interested in lowering power bills and increasing their energy independence, and are also seeing more choices from power producers. Corporations and universities, like the residential segment, are interested in lowering costs and increasing independence, but can do so at a larger scale with microgrid technology. Installers are seeing tremendous demand for residential solar, and at a larger scale, demand for solar microgrids. Power generation companies are focusing on figuring out how to generate power in different ways and make it dispatchable and from a business model that works. Utility and distribution companies main concern is grid reliability and stability. Increased renewables adds to uncertainty on the grid so energy storage may be a way to smooth out renewables at higher penetration levels. Energy in Connecticut: A growing energy-related industry in Connecticut involves installers of solar and micro grids. Potential energy industries for Connecticut include energy storage to manage generation from increased renewables, and power generation via renewables including offshore wind. In 2017, there were more than 5,300 Connecticut workers in the utilities industry, and solar panel installers were a part of the 40,500 workers in specialty trade construction. 15 Connecticut: Modest Economic Growth With Glimmers of Potential After three years of population declines during the period, Connecticut saw a very THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 3

4 Figure 2. Connecticut Population by Age 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, years and over 45 to 64 years 25 to 44 years 18 to 24 years Under , Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey slight increase of 0.01 percent between 2016 to 2017 (Figure 2). During the period from 2010 to 2017, as in many other states, Connecticut saw a steady increase of retirement age population, while the school age population (those below 25) and working age population (25-64) each experienced a small but steady decrease. 16 Consistent with these demographic shifts has also been a substantial decline in the student population attending public schools. What do these demographic shifts mean for Connecticut? The overall population changes affect consumer demand and overall economic potential. In addition, the large generation of baby boomers continues to retire and because the next generation, the Gen Xers, are a smaller age group, this will further reduce the overall level of economic demand and output. This demand should eventually be mitigated by the larger Millennial generation coming up behind Gen X, but in the mid-term, there could be a dip in the amount of GDP produced in the state. In terms of numbers of new housing permits, 2017 was lower than the previous two years but still higher than the years following the last recession (Figure 3). While single-family housing permits made up 55 percent of the total in 2017, the share of multi-family (5 plus units including apartments) was 42 percent. This trend of apartment building, seen over the past several years, has been meeting demand from many consumers who either choose to downsize or could not afford to purchase a home. In 2017, the municipalities with the greatest number of multi-family permits issued included Norwalk (387 units), Milford (161), Windsor 6,500 5,500 4,500 3,500 2,500 1, ,500 Source: Locks (160), Stamford (104) and Greenwich (99). 17 As seen from data for 2015 just released in December 2018, Connecticut economic growth accelerated, particularly in Hartford and Middlesex counties, due in large part to growth in aerospace manufacturing and insurance. With 4.6 percent growth between 2014 and 2015, Hartford s economy was $74.9 billion, ranking second in size after Fairfield County s $86.1 billion. Middlesex County s economy grew by 4.1 percent between 2014 and 2015 to $7.8 Figure 3. CT Housing Permits, Unit 2 4 Unit 5 + Units Demolitions Net Total 4 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

5 billion, ranking fifth among the eight counties in Connecticut. 18 An opportunity on the horizon for Connecticut s economy involves investments in its federally-designated Opportunity Zones. Recent changes in the federal tax law created qualified opportunity zones to encourage tax-favored investment in distressed communities throughout the U.S. If investing capital gains in opportunity zones, investors may defer or eliminate those gains. There are 72 zones (defined by Census tract) in 27 municipalities across Connecticut, and receiving infusions of capital to develop downtown and other areas will serve to boost the Connecticut economy. 19 Conclusion The global economic growth in 2019 looks similar to what it has been in 2018, although several countries are expected to see slower growth because of trade restrictions or geopolitical risks. The national economy will continue to be relatively strong in 2019 although not quite as strong as in 2018, largely due to trade issues, and there is a growing concern that an economic recession in the United States may start in Connecticut s economy, while still lagging behind most states and the nation as a whole, is seeing glimmers of acceleration among certain industries such as aerospace, insurance and energy, although the start of a national recession would mitigate many of the positive advances in the economy. The potential of additional investments being made as a result of the Opportunity Zone program bodes well for a state rich with assets yet needing a boost in order to gain economic momentum and have sustained economic growth. The author would like to thank Mia Ying, CERC's Research Analyst, for her research contributions. CERC drives economic development in Connecticut by providing researchbased data, planning and implementation strategies to foster business formation, recruitment and growth. 1 Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/09/ 24/world-economic-outlook-october topic_insurtech.htm 3 hc-biz-hartford-insurtech-startups story.html 4 health-industries/health-researchinstitute/assets/pdf/hri-behind-thenumbers-2019.pdf 5 U.S Census Bureau, calculated by CERC 6 lmi/202/202_annualaverage.asp 7 technology/business/amazon-wholefoods-365-walmart-kroger-costcogrocery/index.html /202_annualaverage.asp stores/list/state 11 articles-view/reports/2/198308/2019- global-aerospace-%26-defense-industryoutlook.html 12 hc-biz-county-economies story.html /202_annualaverage.asp 14 report/prices.php /202_annualaverage.asp 16 U.S. Census, American Community Survey 17 view.asp?q= hc-biz-county-economies story.html 19 Opportunity-Zones.aspx GENERAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 3Q 3Q CHANGE 2Q (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2018 General Drift Indicator (1996=100)* Leading Coincident Liberty Bank Business Barometer (1992=100)** Philadelphia Fed's Coincident Index (2007=100)*** Nov Nov Oct (Seasonally adjusted) Connecticut United States Sources: *Dr. Steven P. Lanza, University of Connecticut **Liberty Bank ***Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia General Drift Indicators are composite measures of the four-quarter change in three coincident (Connecticut Manufacturing Production Index, nonfarm employment, and real personal income) and three leading (housing permits, manufacturing average weekly hours, and initial unemployment claims) economic variables, and are indexed so 1996 = 100. The Liberty Bank Business Barometer is a measure of overall economic growth in the state of Connecticut that is derived from non-manufacturing employment, real disposable personal income, and manufacturing production. The Philadelphia Fed s Coincident Index summarizes current economic condition by using four coincident variables: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 5

6 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Total nonfarm employment increased over the year. Average weekly initial claims fell from a year ago. The production worker weekly earnings rose over the year. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM 1, , ,703.4 Natural Res & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government* Source: Connecticut Department of Labor UNEMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY * Includes Native American tribal government employment (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2018 Labor Force, resident (000s) 1, , ,909.3 Employed (000s) 1, , ,829.4 Unemployed (000s) Unemployment Rate (%) Labor Force Participation Rate (%) Employment-Population Ratio (%) Average Weekly Initial Claims 3,555 3, ,064 Avg. Insured Unemp. Rate (%) Q Q Q 2018 U-6 Rate (%) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Sep (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % Production Worker Avg Wkly Hours Prod. Worker Avg Hourly Earnings Prod. Worker Avg Weekly Earnings 1, , , CT Mfg. Prod. Index, NSA (2009=100) Production Worker Hours (000s) 3,779 3, , Industrial Electricity Sales (mil kwh)* CT Mfg. Prod. Index, SA (2009=100) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; U.S. Department of Energy *Latest two months are forecasted. Personal income for second quarter 2019 is forecasted to increase 2.6 percent from a year earlier. INCOME (Seasonally adjusted) 2Q* 2Q CHANGE 1Q* (Annualized; $ Millions) NO. % 2019 Personal Income $272,664 $265,637 7, $270,890 UI Covered Wages $117,427 $114,977 2, $116,810 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Forecasted by Connecticut Department of Labor 6 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG New Housing Permits* Nov 2018 NA NA NA NA NA Electricity Sales (mil kwh) Oct , ,088 23, Construction Contracts Index (1980=100) Nov New Auto Registrations Nov , , , Exports (Bil. $) 3Q S&P 500: Monthly Close Nov , New auto registrations decreased over the year. STATE Sources: Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; F.W. Dodge; Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles; Wisertrade.org * Estimated by the Bureau of the Census BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MO/QTR LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG STARTS Secretary of the State Nov , ,021 29, Department of Labor 1Q , ,134 3, TERMINATIONS Secretary of the State Nov , ,105 13, Department of Labor 1Q , ,495 1, Sources: Connecticut Secretary of the State; Connecticut Department of Labor Net business formation, as measured by starts minus stops registered with the Secretary of the State, was up over the year. STATE REVENUES YEAR TO DATE Nov Nov % % (Millions of dollars) CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG TOTAL ALL REVENUES* 1, , , , Corporate Tax , Personal Income Tax , , Real Estate Conv. Tax Sales & Use Tax , , Gaming Payments** Total revenues were up from a year ago. Sources: Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; Division of Special Revenue *Includes all sources of revenue; Only selected sources are displayed; Most July receipts are credited to the prior fiscal year and are not shown. **See page 23 for explanation. TOURISM AND TRAVEL Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG Occupancy Rate (%)* Nov Major Attraction Visitors** Nov 2018 NA NA NA NA NA Air Passenger Count Oct , ,561,054 5,364, Gaming Slots (Mil.$)*** Nov , , , Gaming slots fell over the year. Sources: Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports; Connecticut Commission on Culture and Tourism; Division of Special Revenue *STR, Inc. Due to layoffs, Info Center Visitors data are no longer published. **Attraction participants expanded from 6 to 23 beginning with July 2014 data ***See page 23 for explanation THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 7

8 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Compensation cost for the nation rose 2.9 percent over the year. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Industry Workers Sep Jun 3-Mo Sep Sep 12-Mo (Dec = 100) % Chg % Chg UNITED STATES TOTAL Wages and Salaries Benefit Costs NORTHEAST TOTAL Wages and Salaries Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. inflation rate was up by 2.2 percent over the year. CONSUMER NEWS % CHANGE (Not seasonally adjusted) MO/QTR LEVEL Y/Y P/P* CONSUMER PRICES CPI-U ( =100) U.S. City Average Nov Purchasing Power of $ ( =$1.00) Nov Northeast Region Nov New York-Newark-Jersey City Nov Boston-Cambridge-Newton** Nov CPI-W ( =100) U.S. City Average Nov Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *Change over prior monthly or quarterly period **The Boston CPI can be used as a proxy for New England and is measured every other month. Conventional mortgage rate rose to 4.87 percent over the month. INTEREST RATES Nov Oct Nov (Percent) Prime Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Year Treasury Note Conventional Mortgage Sources: Federal Reserve; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

9 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL DATA STATE NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 2018 Connecticut 1, , ,703.4 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,681.9 New Hampshire New Jersey 4, , ,213.2 New York 9, , ,676.0 Pennsylvania 6, , ,060.9 Rhode Island Vermont United States 149, , , ,738.0 Eight of the nine states in the region gained jobs over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 2018 Connecticut 1,916,590 1,912,251 4, ,909,333 Maine 704, ,226 4, ,416 Massachusetts 3,837,011 3,657, , ,832,804 New Hampshire 763, ,717 16, ,411 New Jersey 4,495,074 4,513,889-18, ,492,649 New York 9,757,109 9,709,880 47, ,736,073 Pennsylvania 6,440,610 6,418,195 22, ,420,029 Rhode Island 560, ,343 4, ,241 Vermont 345, , ,058 United States 162,770, ,533,000 2,237, ,637,000 Eight states posted increases in the labor force from last year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Nov Nov Oct (Seasonally adjusted) CHANGE 2018 Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont United States Eight states showed a decrease in its unemployment rate over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 9

10 STATE ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, SA, 000s Month ,740 1,700 1,660 1,620 1,580 1,540 1, Jan 1, , ,689.4 Feb 1, , ,692.0 Mar 1, , ,688.5 Apr 1, , ,686.6 May 1, , ,692.7 Jun 1, , ,698.0 Jul 1, , ,698.5 Aug 1, , ,701.8 Sep 1, , ,700.4 Oct 1, , ,703.4 Nov 1, , ,702.9 Dec 1, ,685.6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, SA, % Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LABOR FORCE, SA, 000s Month ,940 1,910 1,880 1,850 1,820 1,790 1,760 1,730 1, Jan 1, ,909.9 Feb 1, ,908.2 Mar 1, ,904.7 Apr 1, ,901.0 May 1, ,898.5 Jun 1, ,896.5 Jul 1, ,898.5 Aug 1, ,899.2 Sep 1, ,903.5 Oct 1, ,909.3 Nov 1, ,916.6 Dec 1, AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS, SA Month ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, Jan 3,656 3,763 3,409 Feb 3,804 3,421 3,729 Mar 3,743 4,266 4,080 Apr 3,821 3,736 3,481 May 3,991 3,929 3,142 Jun 4,423 3,820 3,211 Jul 3,752 3,858 3,445 Aug 3,990 3,611 3,106 Sep 3,846 3,812 3,014 Oct 3,961 3,523 3,064 Nov 3,716 3,668 3,555 Dec 3,860 3, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

11 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS STATE REAL AVG MFG HOURLY EARNINGS, NSA, $ Month Jan $11.74 $10.52 $10.61 Feb $11.76 $10.44 $ Mar $11.83 $10.22 $10.61 Apr $11.82 $10.31 $ May $12.01 $10.25 $10.44 Jun $11.68 $10.47 $ Jul $11.62 $10.81 $10.46 Aug $11.34 $10.68 $ Sep $11.03 $10.40 $10.74 Oct $10.84 $10.35 $ Nov $10.70 $10.39 $ Dec $10.60 $10.69 AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS, NSA Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CT MFG PRODUCTION INDEX (NSA, 12 MMA, 2009=100) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SECRETARY OF STATE'S NET BUSINESS STARTS, 12MMA Month ,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, Jan 1,280 1,532 1,411 Feb 1,292 1,546 1,391 Mar 1,369 1,459 1,468 Apr 1,419 1,399 1,561 May 1,428 1,400 1,598 Jun 1,423 1,402 1,628 Jul 1,433 1,383 1,666 Aug 1,467 1,384 1,680 Sep 1,485 1,381 1,691 Oct 1,475 1,410 1,708 Nov 1,501 1,402 1,706 Dec 1,518 1,423 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 11

12 STATE NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES CONNECTICUT Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 1,718,700 1,696,900 21, ,711,700 TOTAL PRIVATE 1,485,900 1,460,700 25, ,481,800 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 230, ,700 8, ,000 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 66,800 60,300 6, ,500 MANUFACTURING 163, ,400 2, ,500 Durable Goods 128, ,400 1, ,800 Fabricated Metal 29,400 29, ,600 Machinery 13,100 13, ,100 Computer and Electronic Product 11,100 11, ,200 Transportation Equipment ,500 44,600 1, ,400 Aerospace Product and Parts 31,900 29,600 2, ,700 Non-Durable Goods 35,700 35, ,700 Chemical 8,100 7, ,100 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 1,488,200 1,475,200 13, ,479,700 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 302, ,200-3, ,900 Wholesale Trade 61,700 63,200-1, ,700 Retail Trade 184, ,300-2, ,800 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 21,300 21, ,400 Building Material 14,600 14, ,900 Food and Beverage Stores 43,600 44, ,600 General Merchandise Stores 30,200 29, ,100 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 56,500 55, ,400 Utilities 5,100 5, ,100 Transportation and Warehousing 51,400 50, ,300 INFORMATION 30,900 31, ,700 Telecommunications 6,900 7, ,000 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 130, ,000 2, ,600 Finance and Insurance 109, ,900 2, ,100 Credit Intermediation and Related 24,300 24, ,100 Financial Investments and Related 24,900 23,300 1, ,600 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 60,700 60, ,400 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 20,500 20, ,500 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 223, ,000 5, ,600 Professional, Scientific 98,600 95,900 2, ,300 Legal Services 13,200 12, ,000 Computer Systems Design 25,600 25, ,500 Management of Companies 30,400 31,800-1, ,600 Administrative and Support 94,800 90,300 4, ,700 Employment Services 32,600 29,900 2, ,200 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 345, ,700 5, ,800 Educational Services 70,800 70, ,500 Health Care and Social Assistance 275, ,500 4, ,300 Hospitals 59,800 59, ,900 Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 62,600 61,600 1, ,600 Social Assistance 57,900 57, ,000 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 155, ,300 5, ,100 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 23,100 24,100-1, ,800 Accommodation and Food Services 132, ,200 6, ,300 Food Serv., Restaurants, Drinking Places 121, ,700 6, ,600 OTHER SERVICES 65,700 64, ,100 GOVERNMENT 232, ,200-3, ,900 Federal Government 18,100 18, ,100 State Government. 62,500 64,600-2, ,200 Local Government** 152, ,500-1, ,600 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment 12 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

13 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA BRIDGEPORT - STAMFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 413, ,200 5, ,400 TOTAL PRIVATE 370, ,400 5, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 43,200 42,000 1, ,500 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 13,900 12,800 1, ,100 MANUFACTURING 29,300 29, ,400 Durable Goods 22,900 22, ,900 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 370, ,200 4, ,900 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 71,400 72,900-1, ,500 Wholesale Trade 13,700 13, ,700 Retail Trade 47,200 49,000-1, ,600 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 10,500 10, ,200 INFORMATION 12,200 12, ,100 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 42,200 39,900 2, ,700 Finance and Insurance 35,800 33,200 2, ,300 Credit Intermediation and Related 8,500 8, ,500 Financial Investments and Related 17,800 17, ,800 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 65,500 63,800 1, ,100 Professional, Scientific 30,700 29,600 1, ,800 Administrative and Support 24,100 23,000 1, ,700 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 75,100 74, ,900 Health Care and Social Assistance 61,500 61, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 43,000 41,300 1, ,300 Accommodation and Food Services 33,100 31,600 1, ,900 OTHER SERVICES 17,700 17, ,500 GOVERNMENT 43,400 43, ,800 Federal 2,500 2, ,500 State & Local 40,900 41, ,300 DANBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 80,500 79,200 1, ,700 TOTAL PRIVATE 70,100 68,800 1, ,400 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 12,400 12, ,500 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 68,100 67,000 1, ,200 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 17,700 17, ,100 Retail Trade 13,100 13, ,600 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 10,200 9, ,300 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 7,900 7, ,000 GOVERNMENT 10,400 10, ,300 Federal State & Local 9,700 9, ,600 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 13

14 LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES HARTFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 589, ,600 10, ,200 TOTAL PRIVATE 503, ,600 11, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 82,000 78,200 3, ,500 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 23,000 19,800 3, ,800 MANUFACTURING 59,000 58, ,700 Durable Goods 48,900 48, ,600 Non-Durable Goods 10,100 10, ,100 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 507, ,400 6, ,700 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 93,800 93, ,800 Wholesale Trade 17,500 18, ,600 Retail Trade 56,000 55, ,300 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 20,300 19, ,900 Transportation and Warehousing 19,400 18, ,000 INFORMATION 10,400 10, ,300 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 57,800 56,800 1, ,400 Depository Credit Institutions 6,300 6, ,200 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 38,800 38, ,500 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 77,700 74,400 3, ,500 Professional, Scientific 35,400 33,800 1, ,700 Management of Companies 10,400 10, ,400 Administrative and Support 31,900 30,200 1, ,400 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 111, ,100 2, ,700 Educational Services 14,500 14, ,800 Health Care and Social Assistance 96,800 94,500 2, ,900 Ambulatory Health Care 32,200 31, ,100 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 47,500 47, ,600 Accommodation and Food Services 41,400 41, ,700 OTHER SERVICES 22,900 21,700 1, ,700 GOVERNMENT 86,500 88,000-1, ,700 Federal 5,400 5, ,400 State & Local 81,100 82,700-1, ,300 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Seasonally Adjusted Labor Market Areas NO. % 2018 BRIDGEPORT-STAMFORD LMA 410, ,200 5, ,800 DANBURY LMA 79,600 78,300 1, ,400 HARTFORD LMA 585, ,200 9, ,600 NEW HAVEN LMA 286, ,500 3, ,200 NORWICH-NEW LONDON LMA 132, ,700 1, ,800 WATERBURY LMA 66,800 67, ,900 ENFIELD LMA** 44,900 44, ,100 TORRINGTON-NORTHWEST LMA** 32,700 32, ,800 DANIELSON-NORTHEAST LMA** 26,900 27, ,800 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes ** Unofficial seasonally adjusted estimates produced by the Connecticut Department of Labor 14 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

15 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA NEW HAVEN LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 290, ,200 3, ,300 TOTAL PRIVATE 254, ,800 4, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 35,500 34, ,900 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 11,800 10, ,100 MANUFACTURING 23,700 23, ,800 Durable Goods 16,900 17, ,000 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 254, ,500 3, ,400 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 52,700 53, ,000 Wholesale Trade 11,500 11, ,500 Retail Trade 30,500 31, ,800 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 10,700 10, ,700 INFORMATION 3,500 3, ,500 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 12,400 12, ,400 Finance and Insurance 8,800 8, ,700 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 30,400 30, ,400 Administrative and Support 16,400 15,200 1, ,700 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 83,900 82,000 1, ,100 Educational Services 32,300 31, ,600 Health Care and Social Assistance 51,600 50,400 1, ,500 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 25,500 23,400 2, ,400 Accommodation and Food Services 21,900 20,100 1, ,700 OTHER SERVICES 11,000 10, ,900 GOVERNMENT 35,100 35, ,700 Federal 4,900 4, ,900 State & Local 30,200 30, ,800 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Value less than 50 HELP WANTED ONLINE CT online labor demand fell 4.0% in Nov The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index for Connecticut declined by 4.0% to 97.6 (July 2018=100), down from in October. It also fell over the year by 3.8%. Nationally, the index dipped by 2.7% over the month, and by 0.3% over the year. Hartford s labor demand fell by 3.8% from October, but rose by 1.4% from a year ago. Among the New England states, Connecticut s demand for labor decreased the most, while Massachusetts and Vermont fared the best in November. Experimental HWOL Index Percent Change July 2018=100 Sep Oct Nov Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-17 (Seasonally adjusted) Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 United States New England Connecticut Hartford Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Source: The Conference Board The Conference Board Experimental Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, reflecting monthly trends in employment opportunities across the US. The HWOL Data Series aggregates the total number of ads available by month from the HWOL universe of online job ads. Ads in the HWOL universe are collected in real time from over 28,000 different online job boards including traditional job boards, corporate boards, social media sites, and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas. Background information and technical notes and discussion of revisions to the series are available at: THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 15

16 LMA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES NORWICH-NEW LONDON- WESTERLY, CT-RI LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 132, ,100 1, ,300 TOTAL PRIVATE 102,600 99,700 2, ,000 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 23,500 22,000 1, ,900 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 4,400 4, ,800 MANUFACTURING 19,100 17,900 1, ,100 Durable Goods 15,700 14,500 1, ,700 Non-Durable Goods 3,400 3, ,400 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 109, , ,400 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 23,500 23, ,800 Wholesale Trade 2,500 2, ,500 Retail Trade 16,600 16, ,900 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 4,400 4, ,400 INFORMATION 1,300 1, ,300 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 3,000 3, ,000 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 9,200 8, ,300 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 21,100 21, ,000 Health Care and Social Assistance 18,200 18, ,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 17,400 15,900 1, ,200 Accommodation and Food Services 14,800 14, ,900 Food Serv., Restaurants, Drinking Places 13,200 11,800 1, ,200 OTHER SERVICES 3,600 3, ,500 GOVERNMENT 30,300 31,400-1, ,300 Federal 2,900 2, ,900 State & Local** 27,400 28,500-1, ,400 WATERBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 67,800 68, ,400 TOTAL PRIVATE 57,700 57, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 10,700 10, ,900 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 3,000 2, ,100 MANUFACTURING 7,700 7, ,800 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 57,100 57, ,500 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 13,300 13, ,600 Wholesale Trade 1,900 1, ,900 Retail Trade 9,400 9, ,800 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 2,000 2, ,900 INFORMATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 2,000 2, ,000 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 5,600 5, ,700 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 17,400 17, ,400 Health Care and Social Assistance 15,700 15, ,700 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 5,700 5, ,900 OTHER SERVICES 2,500 2, ,500 GOVERNMENT 10,100 10, ,900 Federal State & Local 9,600 9, ,400 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 16 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

17 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LMA SMALLER LMAS* Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ENFIELD LMA 45,200 45, ,100 TORRINGTON-NORTHWEST LMA 33,000 32, ,100 DANIELSON-NORTHEAST LMA 27,000 27, ,000 NOTE: More industry detail data is available for the State and its nine labor market areas at: The data published there differ from the data in the preceding tables in that they are developed from a near-universe count of Connecticut employment covered by the unemployment insurance (UI) program, while the data here is sample-based. The data drawn from the UI program does not contain estimates of employment not covered by unemployment insurance, and is lagged several months behind the current employment estimates presented here. * State-designated Non-CES areas SPRINGFIELD, MA-CT NECTA** Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 2018 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT 344, ,100 2, ,200 TOTAL PRIVATE 280, ,100 2, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 40,500 41, ,800 CONSTRUCTION, NAT. RES. & MINING. 11,400 12, ,700 MANUFACTURING 29,100 29, ,100 Durable Goods 19,500 19, ,500 Non-Durable Goods 9,600 9, ,600 SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES 304, ,800 3, ,400 TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES.. 63,500 62,000 1, ,000 Wholesale Trade 12,200 12, ,200 Retail Trade 36,800 35,800 1, ,600 Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities 14,500 14, ,200 INFORMATION 3,300 3, ,300 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 16,300 16, ,400 Finance and Insurance 12,800 12, ,900 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 8,500 8, ,600 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 27,100 27, ,100 EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 84,800 84, ,800 Educational Services 16,200 16, ,300 Health Care and Social Assistance 68,600 67, ,500 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 32,400 30,900 1, ,000 OTHER SERVICES 13,000 12, ,100 GOVERNMENT 63,700 64, ,700 Federal 6,000 6, ,100 State & Local 57,700 57, ,600 Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. ** New England City and Town Area THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 17

18 LMA LABOR FORCE ESTIMATES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) STATUS NO. % 2018 CONNECTICUT Civilian Labor Force 1,925,900 1,902,400 23, ,915,300 Employed 1,867,500 1,824,800 42, ,841,900 Unemployed 58,400 77,600-19, ,400 Unemployment Rate BRIDGEPORT-STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 471, ,200 6, ,200 Employed 457, ,200 11, ,000 Unemployed 14,400 19,000-4, ,100 Unemployment Rate DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 109, ,200 2, ,800 Employed 106, ,800 2, ,400 Unemployed 2,700 3, ,400 Unemployment Rate DANIELSON-NORTHEAST LMA Civilian Labor Force 44,400 43, ,400 Employed 43,000 41,800 1, ,500 Unemployed 1,400 1, ,900 Unemployment Rate ENFIELD LMA Civilian Labor Force 51,000 50, ,900 Employed 49,500 48, ,100 Unemployed 1,400 2, ,800 Unemployment Rate HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 632, ,700 8, ,500 Employed 612, ,200 14, ,500 Unemployed 19,100 25,600-6, ,000 Unemployment Rate NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 329, ,200 3, ,200 Employed 319, ,900 6, ,700 Unemployed 9,800 13,300-3, ,500 Unemployment Rate NORWICH-NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 145, ,200 1, ,800 Employed 140, ,500 3, ,600 Unemployed 4,400 5,700-1, ,100 Unemployment Rate TORRINGTON-NORTHWEST LMA Civilian Labor Force 47,400 46, ,200 Employed 46,100 45,100 1, ,500 Unemployed 1,300 1, ,600 Unemployment Rate WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 111, , ,300 Employed 107, ,900 1, ,900 Unemployed 4,400 5,700-1, ,400 Unemployment Rate UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 162,665, ,466,000 2,199, ,723,000 Employed 157,015, ,180,000 2,835, ,952,000 Unemployed 5,650,000 6,286, , ,771,000 Unemployment Rate Current month s data are preliminary. Prior months data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST