ECONOMIC DIGEST THE CONNECTICUT. Danbury Labor Market Area Thriving AUGUST 1997 IN THIS ISSUE THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

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1 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST Vol.2 No.8 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development AUGUST 1997 Danbury Labor Market Area economy is analyzed. (article, pp.1-3) Employment increased by 6,000 in June, the fifth consecutive month of strong growth. (p.6) The unemployment rate unchanged at 5.2 percent in June, was slightly above the nation's 5.0 percent. (p.6) Housing permits rose 29.5 percent over the year, and increased 32.6 percent through June from last year. (p.7) Both U.S. and New England consumer confidence remained ahead of the June level last year by 29.5 and 35.2 percent, respectively. (p.8) IN THIS ISSUE Danbury Labor Market Area Thriving by Michael H. Zotos, Ed.D., Associate Research Analyst he Danbury Labor Market T Area has been riding the economic wave of prosperity over the past few years. Most of the indicators point to a bright future. This economic success has been achieved as a result of many favorable factors: a highly trained and educated workforce; its location-fairfield County, 60 miles from New York City and bordering Westchester County, New York; a highly diversified industrial base including chemicals, robotics, telecommunications, finance, medical equipment, optics, pharmaceuticals, computer software and equipment, batteries, relocation firms, and industrial bearings. In addition to its strong manufacturing base, the area accounts for the highest amount of annual retail sales in the state. The Danbury Fair Mall with over 200 stores coupled with numerous shopping centers provides for an employment of over 17,000 workers. A very low unemployment rate, which historically has ranked as one of the lowest in the state, reflects a very active workforce. In addition, this region ranks very high in relation to average weekly manufacturing earnings in the state. The number of average manufacturing weekly hours worked and average hourly wages also rank near the top. The educational level of the Danbury Area s population is remarkably high. In a Fortune magazine article dated August 18, l997, the area ranked thirteenth in the country with 13.8% of the population holding a fouryear college degree. Jobs in finance, medicine, engineering and high tech industries require managers, professionals, and technical personnel with strong educational credentials. Housing Update... 3 Leading & Coincident Indicators 5 Economic Indicators Comparative Regional Data... 9 Economic Indicator Trends Nonfarm Empl. Estimates Labor Force Estimates Hours and Earnings Housing Permit Activity Technical Notes At a Glance UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% JAN 96 STATEWIDE DANBURY LMA MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN 97 MAR MAY THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

2 Danbury LMA... Construction is another sector which has grown considerably. Between January 1996 and January 1997, 300 new jobs were added in this industry, a 11.5% increase. New home construction, road building, commercial and industrial construction and improvements accounted for this growth. Companies such as G.E. Capital, H.F.S. Mobility, Bob s Furniture, and Circuit City, will be in need of thousands of square feet of space. These developments will generate new construction, while other areas are to be renovated. A solid infrastructure adds to the allure of the area. The second highest increase in jobs over the same time period occurred in finance, insurance, and real estate. Approximately 300 jobs were added to this category resulting in a 7.9% spike. With an expanding economy, services in the banking, credit, insurance, and housing areas are needed to support the industrial, commercial, and retail demands. According to the News Times, the area s local newspaper, news reports indicate that within the year over 800 new jobs will be created in the financial, services, and manufacturing Prof. Tech, Mgrl Clerical & Sales Services Processing Farm,Fish,Forest Machine Trades Bench Work Structural Work Misc. 2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST sectors. In some cases, the increase is due to the expansion of existing companies while others are due to new companies moving into the area. The Danbury Labor Market Area has been relatively less affected by corporate downsizing and defense cuts when compared to the central and eastern sections of the state. Admittedly, there have been layoffs and plant closings; however, newly created jobs have replaced jobs lost. New employment has been edging up gradually over the past few years. A balance of manufacturing and service related jobs has helped to add stability to the job market and jobs have been added in finance, telecommunications, sales management, health services and education. One significant development in the city of Danbury is the resurgence of City Center. What was once a slow growth, sluggish retail area, has transformed itself into a business and entertainment center. New restaurants, boutiques, and other small business enterprises have added economic stability to the downtown zone. Some of the start-up capital projects include the JOB EXPERIENCE OF PERSONS SEEKING DOL EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, JUNE % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Percent of Total STATEWIDE DANBURY LMA THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST The Connecticut Economic Digest is published monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development, Program Planning & Evaluation Division. Its purpose is to regularly provide users with a comprehensive source for the most current, up-to-date data available on the workforce and economy of the state, within perspectives of the region and nation. The views expressed by authors are theirs alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Departments of Labor or Economic and Community Development. To receive this publication free of charge write to: The Connecticut Economic Digest, Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, 200 Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT 06109; or call: (860) Current subscribers who do not wish to continue receiving the publication or who have a change of address are asked to fill out the information on the back cover and return it to the above address. Contributing DOL Staff: Salvatore DiPillo, Lincoln S. Dyer, Arthur Famiglietti and Joseph Slepski. Managing Editor: J. Charles Joo. Contributing DECD Staff: Todd Bentsen, Sandy Bergin, Kolie Chang and Mark Prisloe. We would also like to thank our associates at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut, for their contributions to the Digest. Connecticut Department of Labor James P. Butler, Commissioner William R. Bellotti, Deputy Commissioner John E. Saunders, Deputy Commissioner Jean E. Zurbrigen, Deputy Commissioner Roger F. Therrien, Director Office of Research 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Wethersfield, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) salvatore.dipillo@po.state.ct.us Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development Peter N. Ellef, Commissioner Larry Alibozek, Deputy Commissioner Richard M. Cianci, Deputy Commissioner Program Planning & Evaluation Division 505 Hudson Street DECD Hartford, CT Phone: (860) RESEARCH Fax: (860) decd@po.state.ct.us

3 Danbury Labor Market Area DANBURY LMA CHANGE IN JOBS - JAN 1996 TO JAN ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, TOTAL GOODS PROD CONST. & MIN. MFG. SERVICE PROD expansion of city hall, the creation of a new technology center at the Danbury Library, the possibility of a partnership with TRANS.COM. UTIL. Number (left scale) Percent (right scale) TRADE FIN.INS.R.E. SERVICES GOVT 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% the National Hockey League for developing an ice arena on redevelopment property, and the revitalization of the Palace Theater for social and cultural events. Home sales in Fairfield County between the third quarter of 1995 and the third quarter of 1996 increased 7.9%. Both Danbury and Bethel registered strong sales. Commercial real estate is also at a premium. Corporate expansion, the increase in start-up companies, and new retail outlets are causing a shortage of available property. Future economic trends look promising for the Danbury Labor Market Area. If the financial and economic indicators continue to remain stable, the region will continue to attract corporate, retail, and service related industries. June: housing permits increase T he Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development announced that Connecticut communities authorized 886 new housing units in June 1997, a 29.5% increase compared to June 1996 when 684 were authorized. The Department further indicated that the 886 units permitted in June 1997 represent an increase of 6% from the 836 units permitted in May 1997, and that the year-to-date permits are up 32.6% from 3,481 through June 1996, to 4,616 through June Reports from municipal officials throughout the state indicate that New Haven County showed the greatest percentage increase in June compared to the same month a year ago: 107.1%, followed by Tolland County with a 30.6% increase. New Haven County documented the largest number of new, authorized units in June HOUSING UPDATE with 292. Hartford County followed with 158 units and Fairfield County had 150 units. East Haven led all Connecticut communities with 87 units, followed by Cheshire with 61, and Danbury with 24. For more information on housing permits, see tables on pages The annual housing permit report for 1996 is available from the Department of Economic and Community Development. To obtain a copy, please call (860) or fax requests to (860) THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 3

4 Small Business Advisory Council continues activities T he Governor s Small Business Advisory Council, which became active again in October 1995, has had a busy two years of activity and will continue programs serving Connecticut s Small Business Community. Governor Rowland re-established the Council on October 18, 1995, by Executive Order 7-A, which says that the group will operate within the Department of Economic and Community Development. The Council is a bipartisan, volunteer group of professional men and women involved in small business throughout the State. Its Mission is as follows: To act as a voice for the small business community in bringing their concerns, issues and interests to the Governor s office, the State Legislature and Regulatory bodies; To ensure that small business has appropriate access to services available through State agencies and organizations; To evaluate the performance of State and public agencies and organizations serving the needs of small business; To coordinate with the State s economic development efforts the general promotion of the growth of small business. The GSBAC has sponsored two very successful prior breakfast forums over the past six months, bringing together over 1,100 small business people in an effort to discuss issues affecting them. Keynote speakers have been featured at these events, including Governor Rowland and Lt. Governor Rell, as well as Mark Stevens, nationally syndicated columnist for The Hartford Courant. Planning is underway for a breakfast forum which will be scheduled in late October involving Governor Rowland and the University of New Haven. To date, the Council s activities have also included the following: 1) Meeting with various state agency department heads to evaluate specific agency programs and how they impact small business. 2) Meeting with representatives from the Connecticut Development Authority in an effort to represent the end-user of various loan products offered by the State; and 3) Submitting its legislative endorsements to the Governor and State legislators for consideration during the past session. Other efforts underway are the publishing of a newsletter highlighting issues, programs, etc. which directly address small business concerns. The GSBAC newsletter will be distributed to businesses throughout the State. In addition, the Council is in the process of developing a Web site on the Internet to provide information about the Council and its members, as well as information on State agency programs and services available to the small business community and how to access them. The Council s co-chairmen are Joseph Harpie, Vice President at First City Bank in Newington, and Michael Martinez, President of Martinez & Associates, an information technology firm located in Hartford. From the small business community, Harpie and Martinez are joined by the following additional members of the Council: Lisa Arenberg, Advanced Placement, Inc., Milford; Ralph Biondi, Biondi and Rosengrant; M. Edward Fenton, Fenton Group, Wethersfield; Murray Gerber, Prototype & Plastic Mold Co., Middletown; Mary Gentry, Gentry & Associates, North Haven; Brendan Grady, Dollar Dry Dock, West Hartford; Mark Hyner, Whyco Chromium Co., Thomaston; Thomas Kellogg, Business Lenders, Inc., Hartford; and Carlos Lopez, Luis of Hartford, Hartford. Also, Bobi Molchan, R.C. Knox and Company, Inc., Hartford; Shaw Mudge, Jr., Shaw Mudge & Co., Shelton; Rosalie Renfrew, Access Research, Inc., Windsor; Thomas Reynolds, Reynolds & Rowella, Ridgefield; Marcia Rogers, Smaller Manufactures Association of CT, Waterbury; Warren Ruppar, Independent Insurance Agents of Connecticut, Inc., Wethersfield; Kenneth Savino, Savino, Sturrock & Sullivan, East Hartford; Edward Seder, Shetucket Iron & Metal Co., Norwich; Carmen Vacalebre, C. Vac Enterprises, Waterbury; and Joel Young, Olympus Industrial, Middletown, Commissioner Peter Ellef, Department of Economic and Community Development, represents the State as a Council member, and Adam Ney, CT Business and Industry association, attends GSBAC meetings as a guest. 4 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

5 105 LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS LEADING INDEX 120 COINCIDENT INDEX Peak 02/ Peak 03/80 Trough 06/ Peak 12/69 Peak 05/74 Trough 01/ The distance from peak to trough, indicated by the shaded areas, measures the duration of an employment cycle recession. The vertical scale in both charts is an index with 1987=100. Economic weather bulletin: blue skies with few clouds? Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) , Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) , Storrs Campus]. Kathryn E. Parr [(860) , Storrs Campus] provided research support as summer returned to the H Connecticut economy? The Connecticut coincident employment index, a barometer of current employment activity, reached another new peak in the current expansion with the release of (preliminary) May data. Since January 1996, the coincident index has not fallen in any month, except in September What s more, this recent upward movement has been more brisk (see chart) than the previous movement since the last trough. Connecticut s leading employment index, a barometer of future employment activity, continued its yo-yo pattern. The index has not moved in the same direction, either up or down, for more than two consecutive months since December This month, it returned to its peak in the current expansion; last reached in March The movement in the coincident index since January 1996 mirrors the stronger employment market. Over the last 17 months, the coincident index expanded by Trough 10/71 Trough 09/ percent. Nonfarm employment rose by 46,000, or 2.9 percent, while total employment rose by 39,800, or 2.5 percent. In addition, the insured unemployment rate fell from 3.06 percent to 2.30 percent, or a 24.8 percent decrease, while the total unemployment rate fell from 6.0 percent to 5.2 percent, or an 13.3 percent decrease. All in all, the coincident index forecasts continuing fair weather. Over the last 17 months, the leading index grew by 8.2 percent. Housing permits rose from 527 to 685, or 30.0 percent. Housing permits did, however, break the 1,000 mark twice May 1996 and March The short-duration unemployment rate fell from 1.86 to 1.29 percent, or a 30.6 percent decrease. Hartford help-wanted advertising increased from 33 to 36, or 9.1 percent. The initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased from 20,971 to 15,523, or 26.0 percent. Finally, the average workweek for manufacturing production workers rose from 39.1 to 42.5 hours, or percent. Even though the leading index continues to bounce around, the overall trend predicts more sunny, cloudless days in our future. In summary, the coincident employment index rose from 84.7 in May 1996 to 89.9 in May All four index components continue to point in a positive direction on a year-over-year basis with higher nonfarm employment, higher total employment, a lower insured unemployment rate, and a lower total unemployment rate. The leading employment index rose from 89.4 in May 1996 to 90.0 in May Three index components sent positive signals on a year-over-year basis with a lower short-duration unemployment rate, lower initial claims for unemployment insurance, and higher Hartford help-wanted advertising. Two components sent negative signals with lower total housing permits and a shorter average workweek of manufacturing production workers. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 5

6 ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm jobs grew by 6,000 over the month, and 28,800 over the year. Construction experienced the greatest employment growth, while the finance, insurance, and real estate sector employment declined the most over the year. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2 percent from May. The number of unemployed persons declined by 5,800 from a year ago. EMPLOYMENT BY MAJOR INDUSTRY DIVISION (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM 1, , ,607.0 Private Sector 1, , ,379.9 Construction and Mining Manufacturing Transportation, Public Utilities Wholesale, Retail Trade Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Services Government Source: Connecticut Department of Labor UNEMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1997 Unemployment Rate, resident (%) Labor Force, resident (000s) 1, , ,741.7 Employed (000s) 1, , ,651.2 Unemployed (000s) Average Weekly Initial Claims* 4,277 4, ,724 Help Wanted Index -- Htfd. (1987=100) Avg. Insured Unemp. Rate (%) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; The Conference Board *The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23. The average production worker workweek declined by half an hour to 42.5 from last year, but the increase in hourly earnings boosted the weekly pay by over $8. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1997 Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings $14.32 $13.96 $ $14.37 Average Weekly Earnings $ $ $ $ Mfg. Output Index (1982=100)* Production Worker Hours (000s) 6,869 6, ,765 Productivity Index (1982=100)* Source: Connecticut Department of Labor *Seasonally adjusted Personal income for third quarter 1997 is forecasted to increase 6.6 percent from a year ago. Wages are expected to grow even faster at 15.8 percent. INCOME (Quarterly) (Seasonally adjusted) 3Q* 3Q CHANGE 2Q* (Annualized; $ Millions) NO. % 1997 UI Covered Wages $61,894 $53,452 $8, $60,973 Personal Income $116,528 $109,302 $7, $115,040 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis: July 1997 release *Forecasted by Connecticut Department of Labor Note: Beginning with the November 1996 release, all estimates for 1990:Q1 through 1996:Q3 are no longer consistent with 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4. The estimates for 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4 will be revised by BEA in the second half of THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG New Housing Permits JUN ,616 3, Electricity Sales (mil kwh) APR , ,421 9, Retail Sales (Bil. $) APR Construction Contracts Index (1980=100) MAY New Auto Registrations JUN , ,655 85, Air Cargo Tons MAY , ,220 49, Sources: Department of Economic and Community Development; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; F.W. Dodge; Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles; Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS JUN % CHANGE YEAR TO DATE 1997 M/M Y/Y NO. % CHG STARTS Secretary of the State 1, , Department of Labor , TERMINATIONS Secretary of the State , Department of Labor , Sources: Connecticut Secretary of the State -- corporations and other legal entities Connecticut Department of Labor -- unemployment insurance program registrations Construction contracts, although down sharply from the April level of 309.2, were up 12.3 percent from May a year ago. Business starts and terminations registered with the Secretary of the State showed increases of 79.4 and 121.6, respectively, compared with a year ago, for a net gain of 6,816 establishments this year. STATE TAX COLLECTIONS FISCAL YEAR TOTALS JUN JUN % % (Millions of dollars) CHG CHG TOTAL ALL TAXES* , , Corporate Tax Personal Income Tax , , Real Estate Conv. Tax Sales & Use Tax , , Source: Connecticut Department of Revenue Services *Includes all sources of tax revenue; Only selected taxes are displayed. TOURISM AND TRAVEL Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG Tourism Inquiries JUN , , , Info Center Visitors JUN , , , Major Attraction Visitors JUN , , , Hotel-Motel Occupancy JUN Air Passenger Count MAY , ,217,526 2,265, Sources: Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports; Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development; Connecticut Lodging & Attractions Association Active real estate transactions have boosted real estate conveyance taxes 17.2 percent through the fiscal year ending in June from the same period a year ago. Hotel-motel occupancy rose 3.6 percent through June from the same period a year ago. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 7

8 ECONOMIC INDICATORS The nation's total compensation costs increased 0.8 percent from March 1997, as benefit costs jumped 0.7 percent. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (Quarterly) Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Industry Workers JUN MAR 3-Mo JUN JUN 12-Mo (June 1989=100) % Chg % Chg UNITED STATES TOTAL Wages and Salaries Benefit Costs NORTHEAST TOTAL Wages and Salaries Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Both U.S. and New England consumer confidence remained ahead of the June level last year by 29.5 and 35.2 percent, respectively. CONSUMER NEWS JUN MAY JUN % CHG (Not seasonally adjusted) M/M Y/Y CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ( =100) All Urban Consumers U.S. City Average Northeast Region NY-Northern NJ-Long Island Boston-Lawrence-Salem* Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers U.S. City Average CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (1985=100) U.S New England *The Boston CPI can be used as a proxy for New England and is measured every other month. Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board A steady prime rate and lower long-term bond rates characterized banking industry rates in June. The June 30-year mortgage rate of 7.69 percent is lower than a year ago. INTEREST RATES JUN MAY JUN (Percent) Prime Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bond Year Treasury Bond Year Treasury Bond Year Teasury Bond Conventional Mortgage Sources: Federal Reserve; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

9 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL DATA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1997 Connecticut 1, , ,607.0 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,103.1 New Hampshire New Jersey 3, , ,694.5 New York 7, , ,994.4 Pennsylvania 5, , ,422.2 Rhode Island Vermont United States 122, , , ,837.0 Connecticut s employment grew 1.8 percent over the year, while the nation s rose by 2.1 percent. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1997 Connecticut 1, , ,741.7 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,236.6 New Hampshire New Jersey 4, , ,135.8 New York 8, , ,750.5 Pennsylvania 5, , ,004.3 Rhode Island Vermont United States 136, , , ,173.0 The labor force grew in all the states in the region, except for Maine which posted no change. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics UNEMPLOYMENT RATES JUN JUN MAY (Seasonally adjusted) CHANGE 1997 Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont United States New York's 6.3 percent was the highest rate, while New Hampshire's 2.9 percent was the lowest in the region. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 9

10 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 Jan 1, , ,593.6 Feb 1, , ,597.4 Mar 1, , ,598.6 Apr 1, , ,602.6 May 1, , ,607.0 Jun 1, , ,613.0 Jul 1, ,588.0 Aug 1, ,591.9 Sep 1, ,590.9 Oct 1, ,592.5 Nov 1, ,595.3 Dec 1, ,596.5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Percent Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 Jan 1, , ,735.6 Feb 1, , ,731.4 Mar 1, , ,732.6 Apr 1, , ,741.5 May 1, , ,741.7 Jun 1, , ,748.9 Jul 1, ,721.6 Aug 1, ,721.9 Sep 1, ,721.5 Oct 1, ,724.1 Nov 1, ,723.3 Dec 1, ,722.0 AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS* (Seasonally adjusted) Month ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 * The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23. Jan 4,534 4,651 3,890 Feb 4,756 4,517 3,795 Mar 4,790 4,082 3,880 Apr 4,797 4,274 4,335 May 4,940 4,334 3,724 Jun 5,579 4,365 4,277 Jul 5,029 4,349 Aug 4,800 4,281 Sep 4,803 4,199 Oct 4,872 4,166 Nov 4,986 3,907 Dec 4,200 4, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

11 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Dollars Jan $9.28 $9.22 $9.09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HARTFORD HELP WANTED INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month = Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DOL NEWLY REGISTERED EMPLOYERS (12-month moving average) Month ,100 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 11

12 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HEALTH SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

13 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS PERSONAL INCOME (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter Year-over-year % changes First Second Third Fourth UI COVERED WAGES (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter Year-over-year % changes First Second Third Fourth U.S. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter Year-over-year % changes First Second Third Fourth U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Year-over-year % changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 13

14 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES CONNECTICUT Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,627,200 * 1,599,800 * 27, ,612,400 * GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,100 * 1, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,400 56,800 2, ,000 MANUFACTURING , ,300 * -1, ,600 Durable , , ,500 Lumber & Furniture ,000 4, ,800 Stone, Clay & Glass ,600 2, ,600 Primary Metals ,200 9, ,100 Fabricated Metals ,400 34, ,900 Machinery & Computer Equipment ,000 35, ,900 Electronic & Electrical Equipment ,100 28, ,700 Transportation Equipment ,700 50,500-1, ,400 Instruments ,900 23, ,700 Miscellaneous Manufacturing ,500 6, ,400 Nondurable ,800 82,100 * ,100 Food ,100 9, ,000 Textiles ,100 2, ,000 Apparel ,400 4, ,400 Paper ,900 8, ,800 Printing & Publishing ,800 25, ,600 Chemicals ,100 20,200 * -1, ,200 Rubber & Plastics ,800 10, ,700 Other Nondurable Manufacturing ,600 2, ,400 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,291,600 * 1,265,700 * 25, ,282,800 * TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,900 74,800 2, ,800 Transportation ,500 44,200 1, ,700 Motor Freight & Warehousing ,200 12, ,000 Other Transportation ,300 32,000 1, ,700 Communications ,100 18,000 1, ,800 Utilities ,300 12, ,300 TRADE ,600 * 350,600 * 5, ,700 * Wholesale ,700 * 81,100 * 1, ,000 * Retail , ,500 3, ,700 General Merchandise ,000 27, ,800 Food Stores ,500 51, ,400 Auto Dealers & Gas Stations ,400 27, ,100 Restaurants ,200 80, ,300 Other Retail Trade ,800 82,500 1, ,100 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE , ,700-1, ,400 Finance ,100 46, ,600 Banking ,100 25, ,800 Insurance ,400 70,300-1, ,100 Insurance Carriers ,300 59,300-2, ,200 Real Estate ,200 15, ,700 SERVICES , ,400 15, ,500 Hotels & Lodging Places ,600 11, ,200 Personal Services ,600 18, ,000 Business Services ,600 95,300 8, ,000 Health Services , ,100 2, ,800 Legal & Professional Services ,800 49,300 1, ,200 Educational Services ,500 37, ,300 Other Services , ,500 2, ,000 GOVERNMENT , ,200 4, ,400 Federal ,200 23,600-1, ,200 **State, Local & Other Government , ,600 6, ,200 For further information contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 14 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

15 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES BRIDGEPORT LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,300 1, ,300 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,700 45, ,300 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,700 5, ,600 MANUFACTURING ,000 40, ,700 Durable Goods ,700 32, ,500 Fabricated Metals ,400 4, ,400 Industrial Machinery ,300 6, ,300 Electronic Equipment ,400 6, ,300 Transportation Equipment ,200 9, ,100 Nondurable Goods ,300 7, ,200 Printing & Publishing ,100 2, ,100 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,500 1, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,500 7, ,300 TRADE ,900 40, ,700 Wholesale ,900 9, ,900 Retail ,000 31, ,800 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,600 10, ,500 SERVICES ,000 57, ,500 Business Services ,900 12, ,500 Health Services ,100 19, ,900 GOVERNMENT ,000 19, ,000 Federal ,900 1, ,900 State & Local ,100 17, ,100 For further information on the Bridgeport Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) DANBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,500 84,200 1, ,800 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,200 22, ,200 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,100 3, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,100 19, ,100 Durable Goods ,000 9, ,000 Machinery & Electric Equipment ,200 5, ,200 Instruments ,700 2, ,800 Nondurable Goods ,100 9, ,100 Printing & Publishing ,700 2, ,700 Chemicals ,300 3, ,300 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,300 62,000 1, ,600 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,000 2, ,900 TRADE ,300 22, ,700 Wholesale ,200 4, ,200 Retail ,100 18, ,500 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,300 4, ,200 SERVICES ,400 24, ,300 GOVERNMENT ,300 8, ,500 Federal State & Local ,500 8, ,700 For further information on the Danbury Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 15

16 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES DANIELSON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,900 20, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,800 6, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING , ,000 MANUFACTURING ,700 6, ,600 Durable Goods ,300 2, ,200 Nondurable Goods ,400 3, ,400 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,100 13, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,400 5, ,200 Wholesale Retail ,500 4, ,400 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,400 4, ,400 GOVERNMENT ,200 3, ,300 Federal State & Local ,100 3, ,200 For further information on the Danielson Labor Market Area contact Noreen Passardi at (860) HARTFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,400-2, ,900 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,300 1, ,800 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,000 20, ,800 MANUFACTURING ,000 90,800 2, ,000 Durable Goods ,100 71,200 1, ,300 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,700 17, ,500 Industrial Machinery ,900 15, ,800 Electronic Equipment ,000 6, ,900 Transportation Equipment ,300 24,300 1, ,900 Nondurable Goods ,900 19, ,700 Printing & Publishing ,600 7, ,600 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,100-4, ,100 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,600 26, ,500 Transportation ,700 16, ,700 Communications & Utilities ,900 10, ,800 TRADE , ,500-3, ,900 Wholesale ,000 28, ,700 Retail ,200 95,600-3, ,200 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,000 70,100-3, ,500 Deposit & Nondeposit Institutions ,400 10, ,200 Insurance Carriers ,800 47,200-3, ,800 SERVICES , ,300 2, ,300 Health Services ,600 58, ,300 GOVERNMENT ,200 92, ,900 Federal ,600 8, ,600 State & Local ,600 84, ,300 For further information on the Hartford Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. 16 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

17 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LOWER RIVER LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,800 9, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,500 3, ,500 CONSTRUCTION & MINING MANUFACTURING ,100 3, ,100 Durable Goods ,500 2, ,500 Electronic Equipment Other Durable Goods ,700 1, ,700 Nondurable Goods Rubber & Plastics Other Nondurable Goods SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,300 6, ,100 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,300 2, ,200 Wholesale Retail ,900 1, ,800 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,500 2, ,500 GOVERNMENT Federal State & Local For further information on the Lower River Labor Market Area contact Noreen Passardi at (860) NEW HAVEN LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,200 * 246,600 * 1, ,500 * GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,900 48,900-1, ,300 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,700 9, ,200 MANUFACTURING ,200 39,700-1, ,100 Durable Goods ,100 25, ,800 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,500 7, ,400 Electronic Equipment ,400 5, ,300 Nondurable Goods ,100 14,400-1, ,300 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,300 5, ,300 Chemicals & Allied ,100 5,200-1, ,400 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,300 * 197,700 * 2, ,200 * TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,300 16, ,100 Communications & Utilities ,500 8, ,400 TRADE ,900 * 51,500 * 2, ,900 * Wholesale ,900 * 11,700 * ,800 * Retail ,000 39,800 2, ,100 Eating & Drinking Places ,900 12,300 1, ,200 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,900 13, ,700 Finance ,000 4, ,900 Insurance ,900 7, ,800 SERVICES ,500 85, ,400 Business Services ,700 11, ,400 Health Services ,900 29, ,700 GOVERNMENT ,700 30, ,100 Federal ,500 5, ,400 State & Local ,200 25, ,700 For further information on the New Haven Labor Market Area contact J. Charles Joo at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 17

18 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES NEW LONDON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,100 3, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,800 30,800-2, ,300 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,400 4, ,200 MANUFACTURING ,400 26,600-2, ,100 Durable Goods ,000 17,300-2, ,000 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,200 2, ,200 Other Durable Goods ,800 15,000-2, ,800 Nondurable Goods ,400 9, ,100 Paper & Allied ,000 1, ,000 Other Nondurable Goods ,000 6, ,800 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,300 5, ,300 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,700 6, ,600 TRADE ,200 29, ,000 Wholesale ,100 3, ,100 Retail ,100 26, ,900 Eating & Drinking Places ,100 9, ,200 Other Retail ,100 17, ,700 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,700 3, ,700 SERVICES ,000 34, ,500 Personal & Business Services ,600 6, ,500 Health Services ,300 11, ,300 GOVERNMENT ,100 31,800 4, ,500 Federal ,700 3,700-1, ,700 State & Local ,400 28,100 5, ,800 **Local ,200 23,300 5, ,600 For further information on the New London Labor Market Area contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) STAMFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,000 3, ,400 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,800 34, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,100 6, ,500 MANUFACTURING ,700 28, ,100 Durable Goods ,900 15, ,600 Industrial Machinery ,200 4, ,200 Electronic Equipment ,800 2, ,700 Nondurable Goods ,800 13, ,500 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,300 5, ,200 Chemicals & Allied ,600 3, ,400 Other Nondurable ,900 4, ,900 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,300 3, ,800 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,200 9, ,000 Communications & Utilities ,200 3, ,100 TRADE ,900 44, ,200 Wholesale ,900 11, ,800 Retail ,000 32, ,400 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,500 22, ,100 SERVICES ,200 69,600 1, ,900 Business Services ,400 20, ,100 Engineering & Mgmnt. Services ,200 8, ,300 Other Services ,600 40, ,500 GOVERNMENT ,800 17, ,600 Federal ,900 1, ,900 State & Local ,900 16, ,700 For further information on the Stamford Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 18 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST