5,400,000 5,300,000 5,200,000 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 4,700,000 4,600,000. Passengers

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1 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST Vol.3 No.2 IN THIS ISSUE Housing Update... 3 Leading & Coincident Indicators 5 Economic Indicators Comparative Regional Data... 9 Economic Indicator Trends Nonfarm Empl. Estimates Labor Force Estimates Hours and Earnings Housing Permit Activity Technical Notes At a Glance A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development FEBRUARY 1998 Connecticut's seaports and airport are explored. (lead article, pp.1-2) The number of new auto registrations processed rose 0.6 percent in 1997, after declining for two years. (pp.3-4) Preliminary numbers show a total of 36,300 jobs were created over the year ending December. (p.6) Last year's unemployment rate declined to 4.9 percent from 5.7 percent in (p.6) Housing permits rose 17.4 percent in 1997, the biggest increase in eight years. (p.7) Connecticut's International Seaports And Airport by Robert F. Juliano, Chief Bureau of Aviation & Ports, Connecticut Department of Transportation I t is amazing that a majority of Connecticut residents and many within the business community are not aware of Connecticut s international maritime and aviation infrastructure and its potential impact on the economy. For example, relatively few people know that refrigerated ships arrive each week at the Port of Bridgeport with substantial loads of bananas and other tropical fruit imported from Central America. Actually, there are three major seaports in Connecticut capable of handling waterborne commerce: Bridgeport, New Haven and New London. Ships arriving from points around the world ranging in size from 20,000 40,000 tons load and discharge cargo at these ports. Passengers 5,400,000 5,300,000 5,200,000 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 4,700,000 4,600,000 The Port of New Haven is the largest of the three ports, with thirteen marine terminals of various types. Logistec Connecticut, Inc. and Gateway Terminal operate the largest multipurpose terminals with each operator having multiple berths. Logistec Connecticut specializes in the handling of general and breakbulk cargo such as steel, steel products, copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, forest products, recyclables, containers, project cargo, and heavy lifts. Gateway Terminal specializes in the handling of both dry and liquid bulk cargo such as petroleum products, scrap metal, pumice, cement, salt and aggregates. Substantial warehouse and tank facilities are available at the Port for storing both bulk and breakbulk cargo ships with drafts Bradley Airport Annual Passengers Source: CT Bureau of Aviation & Ports CT Dept. of Economic & Community Development THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

2 ranging up to feet Mean Low Water (MLW). Rail service is available. New Haven Harbor is also the jet fuel pipeline terminal that serves Bradley International Airport, and Westover Air Force Base located in Chicopee, MA. The Port of Bridgeport provides facilities for deepwater shipping and the Bridgeport-Port Jefferson Ferry. Logistec Connecticut operates the Cilco Terminal which consists of two berths with a draft of 33 feet MLW, 130,000 sq. ft. of dry storage space, and 85,000 sq. ft. of refrigerated warehousing with a temperature capability to 32 degrees. The primary cargo handled consists of imported bananas, plantains and other fruits, forest products, and other miscellaneous general cargo. The Port of New London also has deepwater ship handling capabilities available at the State Pier. The State Pier, which recently was completely rebuilt, provides two berths alongside a 1,000 ft. concrete pier with a 35 foot MLW draft, and dry cargo storage warehousing. Logistec Connecticut is the terminal operator. The State Pier handles general cargo consisting primarily of forest products, with container services available. An area adjacent to the State Pier is being used by the Mashantucket Pequots Tribe to operate the Sassacus, a 147 foot high speed ferry to be operated between New London and New York City. The Railtec Pier handles dry bulk commodities. Ferry operations to Block Island, Fishers Island and eastern Long Island are conducted at City Piers located in downtown New London. Bradley International Airport is home to ten scheduled all-cargo airlines and several other charter operators. UPS has just completed construction of a 230,000 sq. ft. regional hub facility on the east side of the Airport with plans for additional space. The Roncari Air Cargo Terminal consists of two adjacent terminal buildings containing a total of 90,000 sq. ft. of terminal space close to the passenger terminal. U.S. Airports operates an 86,000 sq. ft. terminal used primarily by the integrated air cargo/freight forwarding carriers on the northwest side of the Airport. Current available cargo ramp space amounts to just under 2 million square feet. With a 9,500 ft. runway, Bradley International Airport is capable of handling all passenger and cargo aircraft, including B- 747 s, the Russian built AN-225, and the Concorde. In the early 1970 s, when international charter operations were at a peak, approximately one thousand nonstop transatlantic passenger charters were operated annually. More recently, Panalpina - - a major international freight forwarder operated up to six flights weekly with B-747 all-cargo charters between the U.K., Luxembourg, Mexico and Hartford. There are also three Foreign Trade Zones in Connecticut located at or near each of the ports, and one in Windsor Locks adjacent to Bradley International Airport. Passenger and Cargo Traffic The number of passengers to come through Bradley Airport showed a steady increase from 1994 to 1997 (see chart). A fivepercent increase in the number of passengers traveling through Bradley Airport occurred from 1994 to Passenger traffic increased one percent in It is estimated that 1997 cargo traffic will show no increase over THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST The Connecticut Economic Digest is published monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development, Program Planning & Evaluation Division. Its purpose is to regularly provide users with a comprehensive source for the most current, up-to-date data available on the workforce and economy of the state, within perspectives of the region and nation. The views expressed by authors are theirs alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Departments of Labor or Economic and Community Development. To receive this publication free of charge write to: The Connecticut Economic Digest, Connecticut Department of Labor, Office of Research, 200 Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT 06109; or call: (860) Current subscribers who do not wish to continue receiving the publication or who have a change of address are asked to fill out the information on the back cover and return it to the above address. Contributing DOL Staff: Salvatore DiPillo, Lincoln S. Dyer, Arthur Famiglietti, Noreen Passardi and Joseph Slepski. Managing Editor: J. Charles Joo. Contributing DECD Staff: Todd Bentsen, Sandy Bergin, Kolie Chang and Mark Prisloe. We would also like to thank our associates at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut, for their contributions to the Digest. Connecticut Department of Labor James P. Butler, Commissioner William R. Bellotti, Deputy Commissioner Jean E. Zurbrigen, Deputy Commissioner Roger F. Therrien, Director Office of Research 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Wethersfield, CT Phone: (860) Fax: (860) salvatore.dipillo@po.state.ct.us Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development James F. Abromaitis, Commissioner Rita Zangari, Deputy Commissioner Program Planning & Evaluation Division 505 Hudson Street DECD Hartford, CT Phone: (860) RESEARCH Fax: (860) decd@po.state.ct.us 2 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

3 New Auto Registrations: What's Really Under The Hood? by J. Charles Joo, Research Analyst T he number of new automobile registrations processed in Connecticut rose last year after two consecutive years of decline. The total tally of registrations processed by the Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) stood at 178,599, increasing by 0.6 percent in Registration figures have served as an economic indicator for several decades, and are published every month in the Digest on page 7. This article briefly examines what the data really encompass and how they have reflected employment trends at new car dealerships and aggregate employment trends overall. ommissioner James F. Abromaitis of the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development announced that Connecticut communities authorized 622 new housing units in December 1997, a 5.6 percent increase compared to December of 1996 when 589 were authorized. The Department further indicated that the 622 units permitted in December 1997 represent an increase of 10.9 percent from the 561 units permitted in November The total number of permits is For more information on housing permits, see tables on pages HOUSING UPDATE December Housing Permits Up 5.6 % C Definition The DMV s new auto registrations count is the number of records processed by the DMV title system during each month. Due to varying lags in processing, these totals do not reflect the actual number of vehicles bought during a month, but they do provide a good indication of consumer confidence as reflected in new automobile purchases over time. The count comprises all new vehicles, including those sold as dealer demonstration models, processed during the month that meet the following criteria: the vehicle had no prior state title or number; the model year of the vehicle falls within the current or past year; and the vehicle was bought only through a Connecticut dealer. Historical Trends Looking at the historical trends back to 1963 (the earliest year data are available), the highest level of registrations was in 1986, during the height of the economic boom in the State. As the table on page 4 shows, the lowest level was seen in 1991, with only 95,870 registrations processed. That year, employment dropped by 68,300, the worst one-year job decline in 35 years. Then, from 1992 to 1994, up 17.4 percent, from 7,714 in 1996, to 9,054 through The 17.4 percent increase in permits the biggest increase in eight years suggests that the housing sector is also enjoying the benefits of Connecticut s economic resurgence, Commissioner Abromaitis said. Of the many recent indications that our economy is healthy and growing, the permit increase is certainly one of the strongest. Reports from municipal officials throughout the state indicate that Litchfield County with 60.7 percent showed the greatest percentage increase in December compared to the same month a year ago. Middlesex County followed with a 48.4 percent increase. Fairfield County documented the largest number of new, authorized units in December with 165. Hartford County followed with 136 units and New Haven County had 118 units. Danbury led all Connecticut communities with 29 units, followed by North Branford with 27, and Newtown with 21. The annual housing permit report for 1996 is available from the Department of Economic and Community Development. To obtain a copy, please call (860) or fax requests to (860) THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 3

4 # of New Auto Registrations 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 New Auto Registrations And Total Nonfarm Employment: Registrations Agg. Emp Year New Auto Total Auto Dealer Registrations Employment Employment* Year %chg (000's) %chg %chg , na , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , na na , , ,978 na , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , * data not available; 1997-first six months average 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Employment (000) Connecticut experienced a 52 percent surge in registrations reflecting a boom in new car sales. Accordingly, new car dealers did well. The number of new jobs at automobile dealerships shot up by 9.2 percent, after losing almost 25 percent of their employees between 1988 and Factors that contributed to the increased demand for new automobiles were: the combination of record low interest rates and the end of recession, enabling more confident consumers to spend on big ticket items such as new cars; the increasing trend towards leasing; and the fact that there were many older cars on the road that owners wanted or needed to replace. To Lead Or Not To Lead Although the trend in registrations in the past has signaled impending recessions, such as in 1975 and , there have been false signals as well ( and , see Chart). It was also a fairly good predictor of the employment trend at new auto dealerships in the latest downturn. However, whether or not the registrations data will accurately predict future employment turns remains to be seen. Floor It, Connecticut! After declining during the recession, employment at automobile dealerships has been growing for the last five years. If the reversal in automobile registrations last year is any indication, and interest rates stay low, this year may be even better for dealers, job seekers in this industry, new car buyers and the Connecticut economy in general. 4 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

5 105 LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS LEADING INDEX COINCIDENT INDEX Peak 02/ Peak 03/80 Trough 06/ Peak 12/69 Peak 05/74 Trough 01/83 The distance from peak to trough, indicated by the shaded areas, measures the duration of an employment cycle recession. The vertical scale in both charts is an index with 1987=100. Coincident Index Takes Breather; Leading Index Moves Up T he Connecticut leading employment index continues its slow and steady increase while the coincident index has taken a breather in the last two months. The recent view of some leading experts (see below), which is also the view supported by our coincident and leading indexes, is that the expansion shows no sign of ending this year. Thus, the current expansion, which is unusually long by historic standards, has a strong possibility of entering its sixth year. The coincident index, a barometer of current employment activity, fell slightly for a second month with the release of (preliminary) November data. The declines in the last two months follow a two-year period of significant upward movement in the coincident index (see chart). While the coincident index fell slightly, it is still up on a yearover-year basis (see below). The leading index, a barometer of future employment activity, continues its modest upward trend. The leading index did reach its peak, once again, in the current expansion with the release of the (preliminary) November data. Forecasters at the January 6th Economic Outlook Conference in Hartford (sponsored by the Connecticut Business and Industry Association and the Greater Hartford Chamber of Commerce) painted a generally rosy picture for the future of the national, regional (Northeast), and Connecticut economies. Delos Smith (Conference Board), Paul Getman (Regional Financial Associates), and William McEachern (University of Connecticut) each projected good economic growth in These forecasters expected economic growth at slightly above 2 percent, which was down by a half or a full percent because of the problems in Asia. Getman was the most optimistic, suggesting that problems in Asia may actually boost economic growth in the Northeast; McEachern was least Trough 10/71 Trough 09/ optimistic, indicating that Smith and Getman may have underestimated the negative effects of the Asian situation on the national and local economies. In summary, the coincident employment index rose from 85.9 in November 1996 to 92.4 in November All four index components continue to point in a positive direction on a yearover-year basis with higher nonfarm employment, higher total employment, a lower insured unemployment rate, and a lower total unemployment rate. The leading employment index rose from 89.8 in November 1996 to 90.8 in November All five index components sent positive signals on a year-over-year basis with a lower short-duration (less than 15 weeks) unemployment rate, lower initial claims for unemployment insurance, higher total housing permits, a higher average workweek of manufacturing production workers, and higher Hartford help-wanted advertising. Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) , Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) , Storrs Campus]. Kathryn E. Parr [(860) , Storrs Campus] provided research support. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 5

6 ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF EMPLOYMENT Employment increased by 36,300 over the year, growing 2.3 percent. EMPLOYMENT BY MAJOR INDUSTRY DIVISION (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM 1, , ,628.3 Private Sector 1, , ,402.3 Construction and Mining Manufacturing Transportation, Public Utilities Wholesale, Retail Trade Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Services Government Source: Connecticut Department of Labor The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4 percent in December, the lowest rate since December The annualized unemployment rate for 1997 was 4.9 percent, down from 5.7 percent in UNEMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1997 Unemployment Rate, resident (%) Labor Force, resident (000s) 1, , ,730.0 Employed (000s) 1, , ,649.2 Unemployed (000s) Average Weekly Initial Claims* 4,298 4, ,698 Help Wanted Index -- Htfd. (1987=100) Avg. Insured Unemp. Rate (%) Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor; The Conference Board *The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23. Average manufacturing production worker weekly earnings increased by 4.4 percent, and manufacturing output rose by 2.4 percent from last December. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY (Not seasonally adjusted) NO. % 1997 Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings $14.84 $14.21 $ $14.73 Average Weekly Earnings $ $ $ $ Mfg. Output Index (1982=100)* Production Worker Hours (000s) 6,981 7, ,931 Productivity Index (1982=100)* Source: Connecticut Department of Labor *Seasonally adjusted Revised personal income for second quarter 1998 is forecasted to increase 6.0 percent from a year ago. The wages component is expected to grow 4.4 percent. INCOME (Quarterly) (Seasonally adjusted) 2Q* 2Q CHANGE 1Q* (Annualized; $ Millions) NO. % 1998 Personal Income $124,236 $117,258 $6, $122,497 UI Covered Wages $63,586 $60,891 $2, $62,862 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis: January 1998 release *Forecasted by Connecticut Department of Labor 6 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

7 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG New Housing Permits DEC ,054 7, Electricity Sales (mil kwh) OCT , ,470 23, Retail Sales (Bil. $) OCT Construction Contracts Index (1980=100) NOV New Auto Registrations DEC , , , Air Cargo Tons NOV , , , Sources: Department of Economic and Community Development; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; Connecticut Department of Revenue Services; F.W. Dodge; Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles; Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS DEC % CHANGE YEAR TO DATE 1997 M/M Y/Y NO. % CHG STARTS Secretary of the State 1, , Department of Labor , TERMINATIONS Secretary of the State , Department of Labor , Sources: Connecticut Secretary of the State -- corporations and other legal entities Connecticut Department of Labor -- unemployment insurance program registrations The index of construction contracts was up 12.0 percent in November over the same month last year. Year-over-year, an increase of 6.2 percent in retail sales was also evident. Business starts and terminations registered with the Secretary of the State showed increases of 13.8 and 69.5 percent, respectively, for a net gain of 13,444 businesses. STATE TAX COLLECTIONS FISCAL YEAR TOTALS DEC DEC % % (Millions of dollars) CHG CHG TOTAL ALL TAXES* , , Corporate Tax Personal Income Tax , , Real Estate Conv. Tax Sales & Use Tax , , Source: Connecticut Department of Revenue Services *Includes all sources of tax revenue; Only selected taxes are displayed. TOURISM AND TRAVEL Y/Y % YEAR TO DATE % MONTH LEVEL CHG CURRENT PRIOR CHG Tourism Inquiries DEC , , , Info Center Visitors DEC , , , Major Attraction Visitors DEC , ,752,373 1,648, Hotel-Motel Occupancy DEC Air Passenger Count NOV , ,980,953 4,937, Sources: Connecticut Department of Transportation, Bureau of Aviation and Ports; Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development; Connecticut Lodging & Attractions Association Fiscal year-to-date tax collections increased overall 7.6 percent through December. The number of major attraction and information center visitors increased in 1997 by 6.3 and 1.1 percent, respectively over last year. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 7

8 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Compensation costs for the nation rose 3.4 percent over the year, while the Northeast s increased by 3.0 percent. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (Quarterly) Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Private Industry Workers DEC SEP 3-Mo DEC DEC 12-Mo (June 1989=100) % Chg % Chg UNITED STATES TOTAL Wages and Salaries Benefit Costs NORTHEAST TOTAL Wages and Salaries Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics The inflation rate in December was 1.7 percent for the U.S., 1.6 percent in the Northeast, and 1.9 percent in Boston. Consumer confidence gained 17.8 percent in the U.S. and 54.4 percent in New England. CONSUMER NEWS DEC NOV DEC % CHG (Not seasonally adjusted) M/M Y/Y CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ( =100) All Urban Consumers U.S. City Average Purchasing Power of Consumer Dollar: ( =$1.00) $0.620 $0.619 $ Northeast Region NY-Northern NJ-Long Island Boston-Lawrence-Salem* Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers U.S. City Average CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (1985=100) U.S New England *The Boston CPI can be used as a proxy for New England and is measured every other month. Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board Slightly higher short-term Treasury bill rates and lower long-term bond rates, including a lower 30-year conventional mortgage rate of 7.10 percent continued into December. INTEREST RATES DEC NOV DEC (Percent) Prime Federal Funds Month Treasury Bill Month Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bill Year Treasury Bond Year Treasury Bond Year Treasury Bond Year Teasury Bond Conventional Mortgage Sources: Federal Reserve; Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

9 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL DATA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1997 Connecticut 1, , ,628.3 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,149.6 New Hampshire New Jersey 3, , ,733.4 New York 8, , ,072.8 Pennsylvania 5, , ,470.9 Rhode Island Vermont United States 123, , , ,495.0 Connecticut s employment grew 2.3 percent over the year, while the nation s rose by 2.7 percent. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted; 000s) NO. % 1997 Connecticut 1, , ,730.0 Maine Massachusetts 3, , ,262.1 New Hampshire New Jersey 4, , ,151.7 New York 8, , ,803.4 Pennsylvania 6, , ,983.7 Rhode Island Vermont United States 137, , , ,864.0 Maine and New Jersey experienced a decline in the labor force over the year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics UNEMPLOYMENT RATES DEC DEC NOV (Seasonally adjusted) CHANGE 1997 Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont United States Maine was the only state in the region with an unemployment rate above last year's. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 9

10 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 Jan 1, , ,593.6 Feb 1, , ,597.4 Mar 1, , ,598.6 Apr 1, , ,602.6 May 1, , ,607.0 Jun 1, , ,613.2 Jul 1, , ,620.5 Aug 1, , ,620.5 Sep 1, , ,622.7 Oct 1, , ,622.3 Nov 1, , ,628.3 Dec 1, , ,632.8 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Percent Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LABOR FORCE (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 Jan 1, , ,735.6 Feb 1, , ,731.4 Mar 1, , ,732.6 Apr 1, , ,741.5 May 1, , ,741.7 Jun 1, , ,749.2 Jul 1, , ,746.6 Aug 1, , ,741.5 Sep 1, , ,742.9 Oct 1, , ,739.0 Nov 1, , ,730.0 Dec 1, , ,722.6 AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS* (Seasonally adjusted) Month ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 * The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23. Jan 4,534 4,651 3,890 Feb 4,756 4,517 3,795 Mar 4,790 4,082 3,880 Apr 4,797 4,274 4,335 May 4,940 4,334 3,724 Jun 5,579 4,365 4,277 Jul 5,029 4,349 3,622 Aug 4,800 4,281 3,858 Sep 4,803 4,199 3,627 Oct 4,872 4,166 3,470 Nov 4,986 3,907 3,698 Dec 4,200 4,501 4, THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

11 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Dollars Jan $9.28 $9.22 $9.09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HARTFORD HELP WANTED INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month = Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DOL NEWLY REGISTERED EMPLOYERS (12-month moving average) Month ,100 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 11

12 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS WHOLESALE TRADE EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RETAIL TRADE EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HEALTH SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

13 ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS PERSONAL INCOME (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter Year-over-year % changes First Second Third Fourth UI COVERED WAGES (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter Year-over-year % changes First Second Third Fourth U.S. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter Year-over-year % changes First Second Third Fourth U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (Not seasonally adjusted) Month Year-over-year % changes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 13

14 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES CONNECTICUT Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,653,000 1,617,100 35, ,648,700 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,200 4, ,100 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,800 52,300 4, ,500 MANUFACTURING , , ,600 Durable , , ,900 Lumber & Furniture ,200 4, ,200 Stone, Clay & Glass ,600 2, ,600 Primary Metals ,200 9, ,200 Fabricated Metals ,900 34, ,800 Machinery & Computer Equipment ,000 35, ,000 Electronic & Electrical Equipment ,100 28, ,100 Transportation Equipment ,300 49,300-1, ,200 Instruments ,400 23, ,300 Miscellaneous Manufacturing ,500 6, ,500 Nondurable ,800 82, ,700 Food ,900 9, ,900 Textiles ,100 2, ,100 Apparel ,600 4, ,800 Paper ,000 8, ,000 Printing & Publishing ,800 25, ,700 Chemicals ,900 19, ,900 Rubber & Plastics ,000 10, ,000 Other Nondurable Manufacturing ,500 2, ,300 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,319,200 1,287,900 31, ,312,600 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,000 73,900 2, ,900 Transportation ,300 43,100 1, ,300 Motor Freight & Warehousing ,900 11, ,000 Other Transportation ,400 31,300 1, ,300 Communications ,400 18,400 1, ,300 Utilities ,300 12, ,300 TRADE , ,200 10, ,100 Wholesale ,900 82,100 2, ,500 Retail , ,100 7, ,600 General Merchandise ,600 31, ,800 Food Stores ,100 51,600 1, ,900 Auto Dealers & Gas Stations ,200 26, ,200 Restaurants ,800 77,400 1, ,700 Other Retail Trade ,800 90,400 3, ,000 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE , ,500 1, ,200 Finance ,500 46,100 1, ,000 Banking ,100 24, ,900 Insurance ,300 68, ,200 Insurance Carriers ,300 58, ,200 Real Estate ,100 15, ,000 SERVICES , ,700 18, ,400 Hotels & Lodging Places ,600 10, ,700 Personal Services ,700 18, ,500 Business Services ,600 99,000 9, ,700 Health Services , ,200 1, ,500 Legal & Professional Services ,100 49,700 2, ,700 Educational Services ,800 41,500 1, ,300 Other Services , ,100 3, ,000 GOVERNMENT , , ,000 Federal ,100 23, ,300 **State, Local & Other Government , , ,700 For further information contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 14 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

15 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES BRIDGEPORT LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,700 2, ,900 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,500 45, ,900 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,300 5, ,600 MANUFACTURING ,200 40, ,300 Durable Goods ,700 32, ,800 Fabricated Metals ,400 4, ,400 Industrial Machinery ,300 6, ,400 Electronic Equipment ,500 6, ,500 Transportation Equipment ,200 9, ,100 Nondurable Goods ,500 7, ,500 Printing & Publishing ,100 2, ,100 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,200 2, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,300 7, ,300 TRADE ,900 41, ,500 Wholesale ,900 9, ,900 Retail ,000 31, ,600 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,500 10, ,400 SERVICES ,100 57,300 1, ,000 Business Services ,000 12, ,800 Health Services ,400 19, ,400 GOVERNMENT ,600 20, ,800 Federal ,900 1, ,900 State & Local ,700 18, ,900 For further information on the Bridgeport Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) DANBURY LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,200 85, ,700 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,900 22, ,100 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,100 3, ,200 MANUFACTURING ,800 19, ,900 Durable Goods ,900 10, ,000 Machinery & Electric Equipment ,200 5, ,200 Instruments ,700 2, ,800 Nondurable Goods ,900 9, ,900 Printing & Publishing ,800 2, ,700 Chemicals ,200 3, ,200 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,300 63, ,600 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,800 2, ,800 TRADE ,100 23, ,700 Wholesale ,200 4, ,200 Retail ,900 18, ,500 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,500 4, ,400 SERVICES ,200 23, ,100 GOVERNMENT ,700 9, ,600 Federal State & Local ,900 8, ,800 For further information on the Danbury Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 15

16 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES DANIELSON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,700 20, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,600 6, ,600 CONSTRUCTION & MINING , ,000 MANUFACTURING ,600 5, ,600 Durable Goods ,200 2, ,200 Nondurable Goods ,400 3, ,400 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,100 13, ,000 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,300 5, ,300 Wholesale Retail ,500 4, ,500 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,400 4, ,400 GOVERNMENT ,300 3, ,200 Federal State & Local ,200 3, ,100 For further information on the Danielson Labor Market Area contact Noreen Passardi at (860) HARTFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,600 13, ,900 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,300 1, ,000 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,900 19, ,600 MANUFACTURING ,600 92,300 1, ,400 Durable Goods ,700 72,500 1, ,400 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,700 17, ,600 Industrial Machinery ,200 15, ,200 Electronic Equipment ,100 5, ,100 Transportation Equipment ,500 25, ,400 Nondurable Goods ,900 19, ,000 Printing & Publishing ,700 7, ,700 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,300 11, ,900 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,600 26,500 2, ,600 Transportation ,400 15,800 1, ,400 Communications & Utilities ,200 10, ,200 TRADE , , ,200 Wholesale ,800 29, ,700 Retail ,000 97, ,500 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,100 67, ,100 Deposit & Nondeposit Institutions ,200 10, ,200 Insurance Carriers ,500 45, ,400 SERVICES , ,100 3, ,800 Business Services ,100 31,600 2, ,500 Health Services ,900 58, ,700 GOVERNMENT ,800 95,500 6, ,200 Federal ,500 8, ,500 State & Local ,300 86,800 6, ,700 For further information on the Hartford Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. 16 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST

17 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES LOWER RIVER LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ,600 9, ,500 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,400 3, ,400 CONSTRUCTION & MINING MANUFACTURING ,100 3, ,100 Durable Goods ,400 2, ,500 Electronic Equipment Other Durable Goods ,600 1, ,700 Nondurable Goods Rubber & Plastics Other Nondurable Goods SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,200 5, ,100 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES TRADE ,300 2, ,300 Wholesale Retail ,900 1, ,900 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE SERVICES ,300 2, ,300 GOVERNMENT , Federal State & Local , For further information on the Lower River Labor Market Area contact Noreen Passardi at (860) NEW HAVEN LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,400 3, ,200 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,100 48,400-1, ,300 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,700 8, ,800 MANUFACTURING ,400 39,500-2, ,500 Durable Goods ,500 25, ,500 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,200 7, ,300 Electronic Equipment ,300 5, ,300 Nondurable Goods ,900 14,200-1, ,000 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,300 5, ,300 Chemicals & Allied ,100 5,100-1, ,100 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,000 5, ,900 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,100 15, ,000 Communications & Utilities ,300 8, ,300 TRADE ,800 52,600 2, ,400 Wholesale ,700 11, ,800 Retail ,100 40,800 2, ,600 Eating & Drinking Places ,200 11,800 1, ,100 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,400 13, ,400 Finance ,700 3, ,700 Insurance ,800 7, ,800 SERVICES ,800 86,000 2, ,000 Business Services ,800 12,600 1, ,800 Health Services ,500 28, ,200 GOVERNMENT ,000 31, ,100 Federal ,600 5, ,400 State & Local ,400 26, ,700 For further information on the New Haven Labor Market Area contact J. Charles Joo at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST 17

18 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES NEW LONDON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,200 3, ,300 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,200 28, ,100 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,400 3, ,500 MANUFACTURING ,800 24,800-1, ,600 Durable Goods ,500 15,600-1, ,400 Primary & Fabricated Metals ,300 2, ,200 Other Durable Goods ,200 13,300-1, ,200 Nondurable Goods ,300 9, ,200 Paper & Allied ,000 1, ,000 Other Nondurable Goods ,900 6, ,800 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,500 3, ,200 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,300 6, ,400 TRADE ,700 28,400 1, ,500 Wholesale ,100 3, ,100 Retail ,600 25,400 1, ,400 Eating & Drinking Places ,900 7, ,000 Other Retail ,700 17,700 1, ,400 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,600 3, ,600 SERVICES ,400 33, ,300 Personal & Business Services ,600 6, ,600 Health Services ,500 11, ,500 GOVERNMENT ,300 34,900 1, ,400 Federal ,600 2, ,600 State & Local ,700 32,000 1, ,800 **Local ,800 27,700 2, ,800 For further information on the New London Labor Market Area contact Lincoln Dyer at (860) STAMFORD LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted NO. % 1997 TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT , ,800 3, ,600 GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES ,500 34, ,400 CONSTRUCTION & MINING ,900 5, ,100 MANUFACTURING ,600 28, ,300 Durable Goods ,800 15, ,800 Industrial Machinery ,200 4, ,200 Electronic Equipment ,800 2, ,800 Nondurable Goods ,800 13, ,500 Paper, Printing & Publishing ,100 6, ,100 Chemicals & Allied ,600 3, ,500 Other Nondurable ,100 4, ,900 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES , ,700 3, ,200 TRANS., COMM. & UTILITIES ,400 10, ,500 Communications & Utilities ,600 3, ,600 TRADE ,300 46, ,100 Wholesale ,100 11, ,000 Retail ,200 34, ,100 FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE ,400 23,200 2, ,900 SERVICES ,900 70, ,900 Business Services ,800 21, ,200 Engineering & Mgmnt. Services ,500 9, ,400 Other Services ,600 40, ,300 GOVERNMENT ,800 17, ,800 Federal ,000 2, ,900 State & Local ,800 15, ,900 For further information on the Stamford Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March *Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment. 18 THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST