U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update Economic Summit. Orlando, FL January 18 th, 2017

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Tamsyn Peters
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1 U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update 2017 Economic Summit Orlando, FL January 18 th, 2017

2 Impact of the New Administration How will the policies of the incoming administration affect the U.S. economic outlook? They look to be a dramatic break from the past eight years, will they shock us out of the historically tepid expansion? Will Trump lift us up where we belong?

3 Impact of the New Administration

4 Impact of the New Administration

5 Impact of the New Administration What will the Trump administration s economic policies look like? How are they likely to impact the forecast for the U.S. economy?

6 Impact of the New Administration

7 Impact of the New Fiscal Policy: Administration Double-barreled stimulus spending plus tax cuts $1 trillion infrastructure plan Likely boost in defense spending

8 Impact of the New Fiscal Policy: Administration Tax reform Personal Corporate

9 Impact of the New Administration Much needed regulatory relief Dodd-Frank law Affordable Care Act Countless other executive orders and agency based regulatory actions EPA

10 Impact of the New Administration Trade policy a potential pitfall Threats of tariffs and other trade barriers in response to unfair trade practices and currency manipulation Trade war possible?

11 Impact of the New Administration New administration must avoid SkyMall Policies Sky Mall Policy: An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

15 155.0 Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Millions) Total Nonfarm Employment

16 10.0 Civilian Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate

17 Impact of the New Administration The election may have improved the domestic environment but does nothing to address many potential global economic pitfalls

18 Global Concerns - China Chinese economy a concern Three straight quarters of 6.7% real GDP growth Economy definitely slowing Debt bubble Depreciation of the Yuan Not currency manipulation

19 Global Concerns - Europe Brexit 2015: 3.1%, 2016: 3.6% Southern Europe Greek debt crisis source has not been redressed Immigrant Crisis Growing political backlash The end of the EU?

20 Global Concerns - ROW Brazil Canada Much stronger U.S. Dollar Will continue to weigh on net exports

21 Global Factors - Eurozone Greece and the Euro All the Greek bailouts, haircut & the election are stays of execution and not pardons The Euro still facing greatest threat since inception. Crisis on back burner again, for now.

22 U.S. Forecast GDP % Change, Annual Rate Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate Consumer Sentiment Consumption % Change, Annual Rate

23 Florida Forecast Florida Housing Starts (thousands) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% % Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

24 Florida Forecast Florida Population (Thousands)

25 Florida Forecast 14.0% Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

26 Florida Forecast 10% Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago) 5% 0% -5% -10%

27 Florida Forecast Florida Employment (Thousands) Wage & Salary Employment

28 Florida Forecast Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

29 Florida Forecast Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

30 Florida Forecast Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

31 Averages; Q Forecast Sector Florida % Average Annual Growth Professional & Business Services 5.8 Construction 5.2 Financial 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 2.3 Education-Health Services 2.2 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2.1 Manufacturing 2.0 State & Local Government 1.5 Federal Government 0.5 Information -0.3

32 Averages; Q Forecast Region Population Growth Average % Chg Rank Florida Deltona Gainesville Jacksonville Lakeland Miami Naples Ocala Orlando Palm Bay Pensacola Tallahassee Tampa 1.6 4

33 Averages; Q Forecast Region Employment Growth Average % Chg Rank Florida Deltona Gainesville Jacksonville Lakeland Miami Naples Ocala Orlando Palm Bay Pensacola Tallahassee Tampa 2.2 5

34 Averages; Q Forecast Sector Orlando % Average Annual Growth Construction 7.9 Professional & Business Services 4.9 Education-Health Services 3.6 Leisure & Hospitality 3.1 Federal Government 2.6 Manufacturing 2.5 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.9 State & Local Government 1.7 Financial 1.3 Information 0.3

35 Orange County Forecast

36 Orange County Forecast

37 Orange County Forecast

38 Orange County Forecast

39 Orange County Forecast

40 Orange County Forecast

41 Orange County Forecast

42 Orange County Forecast

43 Orange County Forecast

44 Orange County Forecast

45 Orange County Forecast

46 Orange County Forecast

47 Thank you Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407)

U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update Economic Summit. Orlando, FL December 15 th, 2015

U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update 2015 Economic Summit Orlando, FL December 15 th, 2015 Economic Policy Uncertainty Health Care Reform Employer mandates Impact on labor market Dodd-Frank Financial