FAST LANE or SLOW LANE?
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1 FAST LANE or SLOW LANE? Nicholas S. Perna October 14, Northeast Economic Forum
2 ITINERARY Current Conditions National Outlook Fed Policy Elections Brexit Local Economy Implications
3 UNUSUAL RECOVERY Peak Latest % ch GDP (bil $) 14,992 16, Jobs (000s) 138, , Unemployment % Dow Jones 14,165 18,
4 GDP SLOW AND SLOWING FRED-gdp.pptx
5 UNEMPLOYMENT OK BUT
6 PROFITS FLABBY EPS S&P
7 INFLATION TOO LOW?
8 ESPECIALLY FED S GAUGE
9 WHY SO SLOW OVERALL? China slowing: shift to consumer, big imbalances hurts other economies Brazil shrinking Europe floundering: banking, Greece Brexit: exiting EU means uncertainty
10 NEAR TERM: WSJ & Fed Real GDP % ch Fed CPI % ch Fed (PCED) Unemployment % Fed
11 WHY FED SO CAUTIOUS? Wait til after elections Economy still giving off mixed signals Don t want stronger $ but can t say it
12 DISSENTERS: RAISE NOW! Fed s dove turned hawk Rosengren leads surprise triple dissent (Bloomberg) At full employment now Commercial real estate (CRE) bubble but isn t this better handled by, e.g. raising capital requirements on CRE loans?
13 NEAR TERM: WSJ & Fed Fed funds % Fed yr Treasury %
14 LONG TERM: Fed Real GDP % ch 1.8 Inflation % ch 2.0 Unemployment % 4.8 Fed funds % yr Treasury % 3.7e
15 LONG TERM A New Abnormal Slow growth Minimal inflation Low interest rates maybe negative
16
17 LONG TERM: WHY? Possible explanations Inadequate demand fiscal austerity Secular stagnation Global savings glut idiopathic what doctor says when really doesn t know why
18 LONG TERM: SO WHAT? Lots of negative implications Increased financial risk: reach for yield Pension funding even more onerous Bank/Credit union profit squeeze from slow loan growth and tight margins
19 Wildcards UK Brexit U.S. Elections
20 BREXIT June 23, Brits voted to exit European Union. EU is 28 nation agreement for free trade and free immigration and more EMU is 19 countries with Euro currency UK was never a member Exit takes place over next two years.
21 WHY BREXIT? Concern over immigration/foreigners Worry over jobs lost to free trade sound familiar?
22 BREXIT SO WHAT? Potential for large negative consequences Slower growth in UK, rest of Europe and elsewhere as trade falls. Stronger U.S. dollar exchange rate means fewer U.S. exports, smaller profits and lower interest rates. So far, small impact from Brexit because hasn t taken effect yet maybe it won.t
23 THE NEXT PRESIDENT
24 SOME PREDICTIONS Polls: Clinton lead has shrunk Ray Fair: Trump wins and GOP takes House Predictit.org: Futures (betting) market says Clinton is 2½ to 1 favorite buy HC to win for 73 cents buy DT to win for 28 cents Also: Dems retake Senate
25 MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE?
26 MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE? Overall HC: more of same predictable DT: Depends on how much of program is enacted. Likely have both House & Senate.
27 MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE? Fiscal/Budget policy HC: rather tightly balanced tax increases on upper incomes pay for, e.g., college tuition. DT: Tax cuts could mean trillions of red ink If no big revenue boost from rising economy Unspecified waste savings Leave social security alone and increase defense.
28 MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE? Federal Reserve HC: more Yellin DT: could have huge impact by appointments Interest rates: depends whether Fed will accommodate his budget deficits. Fed independence at risk
29 MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE? Inflation HC: more of same DT: probably higher Budget deficits Faster economic growth More expensive imports from tariffs
30 FAST LANE or SLOW LANE?
31 IMPLICATIONS Uncertainty should ease after election (maybe) and what happens with Brexit. Low interest rates likely to continue for some time: tight margins and strong competition. Fed will raise rates: good for margins but not for balances.
32 Thank You!
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