Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out
|
|
- Anthony Glenn
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out September 12, 2018 by Robert Huebscher Stimulative measures drive growth, and the U.S. economy and stock market have benefited from quantitative easing, lower rates, less regulation and tax cuts. But Jeffrey Gundlach admonished investors that too much stimulus can backfire. Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of Los Angelesbased DoubleLine Capital. He spoke via a webcast with investors on September 11. His talk was titled, Miracle Grow, and the focus was on his firm s flagship mutual fund, the DoubleLine Total Return Fund (DBLTX). The slides from his presentation are available here. Gundlach, an amateur gardener, said that he often uses Miracle Grow fertilizer to help his plants. But if you dump Miracle Grow on plants long enough it burns them out, he said. The growth of the deficit has been disconcerting. The deficit growth has been at levels that have historically been used to counter recessions, even though we have been in a nine-year-long period of growth. The U.S. total debt outstanding and the total S&P return have moved up in tandem. That has been miracle growth, he said. What s going to happen when the next recession happens? The deficit could explode, Gundlach said. Let s look at what Gundlach said the future holds for the U.S. economy and stock and bond markets. A recession ahead? Tax cuts, deficits and debt have been responsible for the surges in U.S. growth as are the threats of tariffs, which accelerated growth forward, according to Gundlach. Real GDP growth, he said, is at 2.9% and may be as high as 3.8% for Q3. Nominal GDP has accelerated as a result of higher inflation. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 The last time nominal GDP grew at this rate was in 2004, which led to Fed rate hikes. Is there trouble ahead? The year-over-year leading economic indicators (LEIs) are growing at 6.9%, matching the level at their peak in It s very likely they will turn negatives, and there is no sign of a recession, he said. Sentiment surveys are off the charts and have never been higher, he said. This is the result of decreased regulation, according to Gundlach. The PMI surveys are extremely strong (manufacturing is at 61.3 and at its highest level in 20 years). This, he said, is the result of extraordinary dovish central bank policies from the Fed and other central banks. But the Fed is now in quantitative tightening (QT) mode. We ll see what happens as $60 billion/month of debt is retired, starting in October. There are also trillions of corporate maturities in the next five years, both in the U.S. and globally, according to Gundlach. Along with QT, that will lead to a lot of interesting things as all that debt needs to be re-floated, he said. As debt has grown, it hasn t been reinvested smartly, he said. Net government investment hasn t grown. One of the positive things is that government capital spending has grown faster than consumption when compared to prior years, according to Gundlach. Among households, student and auto loan debt has grown at alarming rates, he said. Millennials have been trapped into lifelong debt problems as a result of tuition increases, he said, which have been fueled by debt accessibility. Home prices are up and home affordability is down, he said, so there has been a slump in housing growth. More than two-thirds of sentiment-survey respondents have said that it is not a good time to buy a home. Countering Trump s rhetoric Gundlach generally stays out of politics in his webcasts. But this time he refuted some of President Trump s claims. This is not the greatest jobs economy of all time, Gundlach said, contrary to Trump s claims. Wages growth has not kept up with inflation, except briefly in 2017, according to Gundlach. Wage growth is slowing down, according to data from the Atlantic Fed. Real average earnings growth is negative, with the CPI at 2.95%. It s inflation that s growing, Gundlach said. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 For the first 20 months of the Trump presidency, there have been 190,000 of new jobs per month. But under the last 20 months of Obama s tenure, there were 211,000. Not only is this not the greatest jobs economy of all time, it is actually slightly worse than Obama s presidency, and both periods were latecycle in the economy, Gundlach said. Since 1939, despite the huge increase in the population, there were many, many times when job growth was vastly higher than under Trump s presidency, Gundlach said. But, Gundlach acknowledged, a lot of that historical growth happened when demographics were much more favorable than it is now. The response to the next recession will be some form of universal basic income (UBI), he said. Gundlach cited a program like this in Sweden and noted the recent calls for UBI among socialist Democrats. The miracle growth markets Miracle Growth has been thrown at the markets, Gundlach said. As global central banks have pursued aggressively dovish policies, foreign stock market returns have responded in a similar way to those in the U.S. But global stock markets are down this year, with some real disasters in the emerging markets, he said, due to the trade war. One of the things we will remember most about 2018 is that incredible divergence between the U.S. and global stock market returns, Gundlach said. Inflation has been picking up in the U.S. and internationally. Across the globe, 80% of countries have had rising inflation during the last three months. We can clearly see that inflation has bottomed out and is heading higher, Gundlach said. Both goods and services prices have been rising over that period. We are not having problems getting inflation to the 2% level, according to Gundlach. There is good reason to believe the core CPI will go higher, according to DoubleLine s proprietary models, the New York Fed s Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) and the ISM PMI (which also is a leading indicator of inflation). Money growth (M2) supply also suggests a move above 3% for inflation, according to Gundlach. A suicide mission It s bad enough that deficits are increasing this late in the cycle, but we are decreasing taxes and raising interest rates, Gundlach lamented. It is a suicide mission, as Gundlach had called it in a previous webcast. If rates are hundred basis points higher, with $7 trillion of debt, there will be $140 billion of additional interest costs, according to Gundlach. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 This will put further pressure on the deficit and create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher debt and higher rates, he said. The Treasury could get overwhelmed by a supply fear that could lead to much higher inflation, with a tough economy and rising rates, Gundlach warned. That would be the gateway to universal basic income. Americans would think they were getting something, but it would really be a devaluation of the dollar. The dollar s next big move will be down and it will be lower than it is now by year end, he said. It has recently weakened versus the euro. That will help non-u.s. stock markets. But the dollar has strengthened relative to emerging markets, which has hurt those stock markets. The market is telling us the trade war is very bad for emerging markets, especially those with dollardenominated debt, Gundlach said. But, he said, President Trump wants the dollar to be weaker and wants the Fed s help to make this happen. U.S. valuations, according to the CAPE ratio, are near 1929-levels. Emerging markets are at half the levels of the U.S., based on the CAPE ratio. It s really hard to believe that equity markets will hold up. If it gets worse in the emerging markets, then it has to be a global situation. That will happen if the dollar weakens. Advice to investors Since May, global markets are down 10% and the U.S. is up 7%. Emerging markets are down 20% over that period, which looks like a bear market, Gundlach said. But he does not expect this divergence to continue. Commodities are at historically cheap levels, but are not going lower, according to Gundlach. They are a late-cycle play and highly volatile and they should stay in the portfolio, he said. Gold, at approximately $1,200 per ounce, will increase in price as the dollar weakens. It is a really good buy at its current price and has exhausted its downside, Gundlach said. The U.S. 10-year yield (at 2.97%) has been remarkably stable over the last several months. But if nominal GDP growth or the German 10-year yield moves higher the two have historically been closely tied to U.S. 10-year rates then it would lead to higher rates. But Gundlach said he does not have high conviction about the future direction of rates. There is an extremely large speculative position against the Treasury market. Gundlach said that if rates head down, even a little, it could lead to a stampede and possibly to a 10-year rate as low as 2.25%. He called this scenario conjectural but not impossible. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 The 30-year yield (at 3.12%) is nearing the 3.22% level, which Gundlach has previously cited as a threshold that would lead to higher rates, provided there are two consecutive closes above that rate. Across sectors of the bond market, Gundlach said he is not a big fan of corporate bonds, which are two standard deviations rich, according to the DoubleLine models. Junk bonds are very highly valued, he said, but not in imminent danger. Corporate-debt-to-GDP is horrifically high, he said, and is inconsistent with tight option-adjusted spreads. Corporate bond yields are also suffering from historically high levels of supply. With convertible bonds, investors are basically owning stocks he said. They are more of an equity investment. Non-agency mortgage-backed (MBS) securities and floating rate bonds are his favored bond sectors. Don t buy Chinese stocks, he said. The financial problems there are scary and investors are better off in other Asian markets. The S&P 500 will end the year modestly lower, he said. You want to be globally diversified, Gundlach said. The U.S. market is sensitive to just a few stocks. If you want to increase beta, invest outside the U.S. I would not invest in e-commerce stocks, Gundlach said. I would rather sleep at night. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds
Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds September 13, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the most respected bond managers in the world with over $100B in fixed-income assets under management,
More informationGundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over
Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over December 6, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2017
Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,
More informationGundlach s Warning to Corporate Bond Investors
Gundlach s Warning to Corporate Bond Investors November 14, 2018 by Robert Huebscher Corporate bonds offer incredibly poor prospects under any scenario, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. If rates rise, prices
More informationGundlach: Federal Debt is on a Suicide Mission
Gundlach: Federal Debt is on a Suicide Mission June 13, 2018 by Robert Huebscher The federal deficit and the cost to service that debt are rising at the same time. This historical anomaly is putting the
More informationGundlach s Top ETF Recommendation
Gundlach s Top ETF Recommendation November 17, 2017 by Robert Huebscher The money to be made is in non-u.s. markets, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. For long-term investors, he recommends a specific ETF.
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2016
Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach is a prescient and accurate forecaster. Last week, as he does each January, he offered his market outlook. But unlike
More informationGundlach's Forecast for 2015
Gundlach's Forecast for 2015 January 20, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Despite a fragile economic recovery now threatened by falling oil prices and the likelihood that the Fed will raise short-term rates, the
More informationGundlach?s Predictions for 2013
Gundlach?s Predictions for 2013 January 15, 2013 by Robert Huebscher Don t expect the low volatility that characterized the capital markets in 2012 to continue. Global economic uncertainty remains, and
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationGary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds
Gary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds February 17, 2015 by Robert Huebscher If you followed Gary Shilling s advice for the last 30 years, you would be very wealthy. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based
More informationThe yellow highlighted areas are bear markets with NO recession.
Part 3, Final Report: Major Market Reversal Model This is the third and final report on my major market reversal model. This portion of the model focuses on the domestic and international economy. I ve
More informationGundlach: Treasuries will Rally When QE2 Ends
Gundlach: Treasuries will Rally When QE2 Ends April 19, 2011 by Robert Huebscher The bonds that PIMCO s Bill Gross sold to take a 3% short position in the Treasury market may have found a buyer in Doubleline
More informationJeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012
Jeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012 Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Senior Investment
More informationIs The Market Predicting A Recession?
Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationJeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks
Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks December 7, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a senior
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low September 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationThe Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk
The Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk July 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance,
More informationAlbert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession
Albert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher As the equity markets have suffered their worst performance ever to start a year, we ve heard the familiar
More informationFRONT BARNETT ASSOCIATES LLC
FRONT BARNETT ASSOCIATES LLC I N V E S T M E N T C O U N S E L May 31, 2000 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - - SOFT LANDING AHEAD Economic growth in the U.S. has been incredibly strong - - too strong for the Federal
More informationOctober 12, Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP
October 12, 2017 Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP It is time to celebrate as the Dow approaches a multi-year target of 23,000. On October 5 th, the Dow reached 22,775, effectively
More information2012 US HIGH YIELD MARKET OUTLOOK
Q1: What are the impacts of the prolonged interest rate environment, fiscal budget tightening and possible QE3 to the US High Yield Market? So, it's really impossible to look at each of those variables
More informationThis article courtesy Caseyresearch.
This article courtesy Caseyresearch. Why Isn t This Incredibly Bearish Development Making the News? Editor s Note: This is one of the most important essays you ll read all year. In this special edition
More informationSub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy
Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy February 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. 4Q GDP Up Only 0.7% Economy Started and Ended Weak 2. A Controversy Over
More information2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000
2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000 January 4, 2019 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story has started to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly
More informationCIO Newsletter Overlapping Cycles
CIO Newsletter Overlapping Cycles Q3 2018 Current Environment The CIO Newsletter warned a year ago that late cycle is a challenge for investors: We fear the next downturn, but we know there can be a steep
More informationThe Global Recession of 2016
INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015
More informationEconomic & Capital Market Outlook Third Quarter, 2018
Economic & Capital Market Outlook Third Quarter, 2018 Economic Outlook The domestic economy is functioning as well as any period since 2007, however we expect economic growth to slow next year. Measured
More informationWHAT IS GOING ON WITH GOLD?
WHAT NOW?? WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GOLD? Volatile few days! Everyone expected a Trump win would boost gold instead gold futures fell 6.1% this week, biggest weekly drop in 3+ years Miners took the brunt
More informationA Recession Is Not On The Way
A Recession Is Not On The Way June 2, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch June Macro Update: Unemployment Claims at a 49 Year Low Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationThird Quarter /30/2018 1
Third Quarter 2018 The third quarter saw strong returns for U.S. equity investors. The S&P 500 returned 7.7% and year to date is up 10.6%. At 114 months and counting, as measured by the S&P 500, the current
More informationEconomy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt
Economy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt November 9, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Unemployment Rate Dropped to 4.9% in October 2. Why the US Economy is
More informationWorrying About Rising Confidence
Third Party Research January 12, 2018 Worrying About Rising Confidence eresearch Corporation is pleased to provide an article by Scott Grannis for his Blog, Calafia Beach Pundit. In this article, Mr. Grannis
More informationJANUARY 2012 THE BEST AND WORST OF TIMES
JANUARY 2012 THE BEST AND WORST OF TIMES It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. So goes the opening line in Charles Dickens classic novel, A Tale of Two Cities. It has become a cliché due
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low November 5, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationJohn Dessauer Investments, Inc.
John Dessauer Investments, Inc. www.johndessauerinvestments.com John Dessauer s market review and update as of Wednesday October 1, 2014 The Fed debates, the Dow dances, and the economy continues to move
More informationWhy America s Debt Burden Is Declining
Why America s Debt Burden Is Declining Brian M. Riedl The Congressional Budget Office s new budget estimates are once again focusing budget watchers on the issue of government debt. While the growing federal
More informationCUNA Economic and Credit Union Forecast April 2018
CUNA Economic and Credit Union Forecast April 2018 For Additional Information Contact: Jordan van Rijn Senior Economist Credit Union National Association Telephone: 800-356-9655 E-Mail: jvanrijn@cuna.coop
More informationRecord Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike
IN THIS ISSUE: Record Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike November 28, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Household Debt Hit a New Record High in the 3Q 2. Student Loan Delinquencies
More informationGlobal Equities PUTTING RECENT MARKET VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE
PRICE POINT February 2018 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Global Equities PUTTING RECENT MARKET VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE KEY POINTS The upswing in equity market volatility can be attributed
More informationRecession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise December 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point
More information(Sources: Barron s 4/1/2019, Wall Street Journal 3/30-31/ 2019)
During the first three months of 2019, investors had a lot to cheer about as U. S. equity markets turned in their best quarterly gains in nearly a decade. This helped many of the major indexes to recoup
More informationOn Our Radar September 2015
On Our Radar September 2015 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite fell 6.56 percent, 6.25 percent, and 6.85 percent, respectively, in August, which was highlighted by a
More information2014 Annual Review & Outlook
2014 Annual Review & Outlook As we enter 2014, the current economic expansion is 4.5 years in duration, roughly the average life of U.S. economic expansions. There is every reason to believe it will continue,
More informationKEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016
KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 Introduction Following the success of strong macroeconomic policy adjustments
More informationBah Humbug: U.S. Markets Tumble to Yearly Lows After Fed Guidance Projects More Rate Hikes for 2019
Bah Humbug: U.S. Markets Tumble to Yearly Lows After Fed Guidance Projects More Rate Hikes for 2019 December 19, 2018 by Paul Eitelman of Russell Investments Markets hit the rewind button this afternoon
More informationWILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary August 13, 212 China Has Already Landed Softly John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Please see the LPL Financial Research Weekly Calendar on page
More informationUPDATE. Investment Market Conditions. Summary of key points. October 2018
Investment Market Conditions UPDATE 23 October 2018 Summary of key points Both short and long-term US interest rates rose by enough to trigger a significant but not catastrophic sell-off in US equities.
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist. March 13, 2018
Global Economics Monthly Review March 13, 2018 Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please note that we will not publish the monthly review
More informationInterest rates: How we got here and where we re going
Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going Prepared July 5, 2013 Summary Investors are understandably concerned about the state of the bond market today given that interest rates began moving
More informationEMPLOYMENT REPORT (MAY)
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY May 30 2017 JUNE PREVIEW Matthew E. Peterson Chief Wealth Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS June
More informationFed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet
Fed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet June 21, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed to Reduce Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Implications 2. How the Fed Got
More informationHow Successful is China s Economic Rebalancing?*
How Successful is China s Economic Rebalancing?* C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh Over the past decade, there has been much talk of global imbalances, and of the need to correct them in an orderly way.
More informationSympathy for the Devil in the Details of Leading Economic Indicators
Key Points Sympathy for the Devil in the Details of Leading Economic Indicators October 24, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Leading economic indicators are showing no stress on the surface; but
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY PERSPECTIVES 19 NOVEMBER 2018
GLOBAL EQUITY PERSPECTIVES 19 NOVEMBER 2018 It s not that I am so smart, I just stay with problems longer." 1. RECESSION RISKS Albert Einstein It is our impression that we would need a relatively high
More informationGlobalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates
Deron T. McCoy CFA, CFP, CAIA, AIF Chief Investment Officer Originally written June 2014 Updated September 2014 Globalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates Globalization
More informationExam Number. Section
Exam Number Section MACROECONOMICS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Core Course Professor Antonio Fatás Final Exam February 24, 2011 9:00-12:00 Instructions: (PLEASE READ) SUGGESTED ANSWERS Space to answer the questions
More informationMarket Commentary. Q Review. Market & Economic Review Third Quarter 2018
Market Commentary Market & Economic Review Third Quarter 2018 Q2 2018 Review The quarter can be analyzed from the impact of taxes, trade, and Treasuries (Some might add President Trump or Twitter as well).
More informationNavigating the New Environment
Navigating the New Environment May 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes have rebounded from their correction lows, although remain
More information- Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931.
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Newsletter Summary. - Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931. - The US economy is moderating but is
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationFed Tightening: How Global Markets May React
Bobby Zheng, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Fed Tightening: How Global Markets May React August 8, 2017 Key
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationProspects for the National and Local Economies: A Monetary Policymaker s View. I. Good afternoon. I m very pleased to be here with you today.
Presentation to Chapman University Annual Economic Forum Hyatt Regency, Huntington Beach, CA By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For delivery May 29, 2003,
More informationMarket Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market?
December 16, 2018 Market Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market? Year-end commentaries are supposed to be filled with reflection, thankfulness, and inspiration for the New Year. In the grand
More informationVincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan By Robert Huebscher June 4, 2013
Vincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan By Robert Huebscher June 4, 2013 High debt levels translate to slower growth, according to Vincent Reinhart. That conclusion will be disheartening
More informationInvestment Perspective
JANUARY 2015 Investment Perspective Major U.S. stock indexes increased in 2014 supported by improvement in our economy, earnings and valuations. The S&P 500 gained +13.7% while the Dow Industrials was
More informationThe Investing Climate
November 18, 2018. Volume 14 The Investing Climate It has been a wild ride in the stock market these past couple of months. While history usually points to a wild October, a wild November is surprising
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March LOWDER BROOK DRIVE SUITE 1100 WESTWOOD MA FAX
March 208 M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 00 LOWDER BROOK DRIVE SUITE 00 WESTWOOD MA 02090 78 47 3500 FAX 78 47 34 Global Economic Outlook The IMF continues to forecast a slight pick-up in growth
More informationDAILY SURVIVAL GUIDE
DAILY SURVIVAL GUIDE BBG Tip of the Day: WBG WBG is the Economist s Big Mac Index. See what a Big Mac costs you from Bangkok to tha Bronx. Quote of the Day: This is a mess. This is a mess. I have
More informationMr Thiessen converses on the conduct of monetary policy in Canada under a floating exchange rate system
Mr Thiessen converses on the conduct of monetary policy in Canada under a floating exchange rate system Speech by Mr Gordon Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada, to the Canadian Society of New York,
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationEconomic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)
Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic
More informationHOPE FOR ROTATION. So, let me talk a little about each of these. Tariffs. Tariffs are restrictions to trade; they are a tax and they cause inflation.
HOPE FOR ROTATION We ve said repeatedly that we believe the current bull market will continue until there is either a recession or a restrictive monetary policy. So far, that position has been accurate
More informationStock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak
Stock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak November 21, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Stock Markets Shift Into A More Volatile Gear 2. Most Cited Reasons For the Current Market
More informationJeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued
Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued November 21, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and
More informationExtending the Cycle. December 8, 2015 by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman
Extending the Cycle December 8, 2015 by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman We think recent market turbulence is a midcourse bump in a rather long road. At our most recent (fourth-quarter) Asset Allocation
More informationInvestment Perspective
JANUARY 2018 Investment Perspective Today, the investment outlook is favorable with solid growth, low inflation, healthy consumer confidence and positive investor sentiment The overall economic tone has
More informationNormalizing Monetary Policy
Normalizing Monetary Policy Martin Feldstein The current focus of Federal Reserve policy is on normalization of monetary policy that is, on increasing short-term interest rates and shrinking the size of
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationMarkets. Rates. Tuesday, 10 April 2018
Markets Tuesday, April 8 Rates,, -, - Policy Rates,,, -, EURIBOR M / USD LIBOR M ECB FED BOE ECB Deposit EURIBORM USD LIBOR M The US central bank continued its tightening cycle, lifting rates by bps to.%.7%.
More informationGoldilocks or the Three Bears?
Goldilocks or the Three Bears? June 11, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. equities continue to grind higher, setting records, with volatility
More informationThe U.S. Economy Does the Recovery Have Legs?
The U.S. Economy Does the Recovery Have Legs? Prepared for: Federation of Tax Administrators Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference Tempe, Arizona September 3, Presented by: Cynthia M. Latta Managing
More informationQuarterly portfolio Summary
Quarterly portfolio Summary Sample ETF Portfolio June 30, 2013 Target Current Investment Mix: % $ % Fixed Income: 64.95% $16,238.15 65.00% Growth: 35.00% $8,749.74 35.00% Cash/Cash Equivalents:* 0.05%
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationAverage Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage
Average Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage August 31, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Ready to Raise Interest Rates... Maybe 2. Yellen s #2 Man
More informationA PIVOTAL OCTOBER. Issue #14. October 2018
A PIVOTAL OCTOBER Issue #14 October 2018 Stock markets tend to post their best returns from October to April but October itself can be the most volatile month of the year. The tug of war between good news
More informationThe Sub-Prime Crisis, Gold, and Forecasts for the Stock Market
The Sub-Prime Crisis, Gold, and Forecasts for the Stock Market Joe McNay is the founder of Essex Investment Management, a Boston-based institutional asset manager with $3 billion under management, including
More informationCurrent corporate debt environment
Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 30, 2018 Rising Corporate Debt What It May Mean for Equities Key takeaways» Our expectation for gradually
More informationLacy Hunt: Keynes was Wrong (and Ricardo was Right)
Lacy Hunt: Keynes was Wrong (and Ricardo was Right) May 4, 2010 by Robert Huebscher Underpinning the Obama administration s economic policies is the work of John Maynard Keynes, the legendary British economist
More informationEconomic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective
Economic Cycle model, Recession Probability model & Leading Indicators A Holistic Perspective White Paper RecessionProtect.com Whilst history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes, so the saying goes.
More informationU.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs
U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs September 20, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. National Debt Tops $20 Trillion, Equal to 107% of GDP 2. Debt Held by the Public
More informationSIP Aggressive Portfolio
SIP LIFESTYLE PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET (NOV 2015) SIP Aggressive Portfolio SIP Aggressive Portfolio is a unitized fund, which is designed to provide long term capital growth. It is designed for those who
More informationTips for Traders 5/26/ :35:00 AM Calling All Traders: Get Ready to Make Money Shorting the Market
Tips for Traders 5/26/2009 10:35:00 AM Calling All Traders: Get Ready to Make Money Shorting the Market I am not trying to paint a grim picture of the US stock market and the US economy. I sat quietly
More information