Gundlach s Forecast for 2017
|
|
- Lorena Cobb
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally. Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of Los Angelesbased DoubleLine Capital, a leading provider of fixed-income mutual funds and ETFs. He spoke to investors via a conference call on January 10. Slides from that presentation are available here. This webinar was his annual forecast for the global markets and economies for Before we look at his 2017 predictions, let s review his forecasts from a year ago. His two highest conviction forecasts were that the Fed would not raise rates more than once, despite the Fed s own predictions, and that Trump would win the presidency. Both predictions were accurate. But he was also downbeat on emerging markets, and singled out Brazil and Shanghai as likely underperformers. Brazil turned out to be the best-performing emerging market last year, gaining 69.1%, but he was correct about Shanghai, which was the worst performing market, losing 16.5%. Gundlach said he had a low conviction prediction that the yield on the 10-year Treasury would break to the upside. It began 2016 at 2.11% and ended at 2.45%. He said the probability was that U.S. equities would decline in 2016, yet the markets gained approximately 13%. Gold, he said, would hit $1,400 at some point in It began the year at approximately $1,100, hit a high of $1,365 during the summer and closed at approximately $1,150. Let s look at his forecasts for 2017, including the one which he called the chart of the webcast. Doomed by debt? Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 The U.S. household debt-servicing ratio is at its lowest level since 1980, according to Gundlach, despite what he called an explosion in private-sector debt. That ratio would change adversely if rates rise, he cautioned, although that might be offset by an increase in income. Public-sector debt is at 75% of GDP, not including the portion of the debt owned by the Fed, he said. Gundlach has warned of fiscal debt problems, as he has done in the past, but pointed out that since 2011 federal debt has leveled out as a percentage of GDP. But he warned that Trump s policies would lead to a steeper slope upwards as compared to the congressional budget office (CBO) debt projections, which show a 141% debt-to-gdp ratio by Trump may deliver the tax cuts he promised to the rich in return for infrastructure and defense spending, Gundlach said, and that would lead to structural debt problems it would get us to the 141% level sooner than in 2046, he said. Those spending initiatives will not kick in this year, he noted, and might take as long as two years to get going. Gundlach offered data showing that the deficit will increase faster than it has in the post-crisis period, although those projections were made prior to Trump s victory, and that the portion of the deficit allocated to mandatory (entitlement) spending has grown steadily over the last 50 years. The recession watch The historical pattern has been that a recession has occurred during the first term of a new president, especially when following a two-term presidency. But Gundlach said that the leading economic indicators (LEIs) are positive, and there has never been a recession without those indicators going negative. CEO confidence is moving up and consumer confidence is exploding, he said, which further supports his prediction that a recession is not imminent. President Trump will lead to a breakout of the forever 2% GDP growth we have seen for six to seven years, Gundlach said. Animal spirits have been stirred. He noted that a small-business sentiment report released that day was the most bullish it had been in a long time. I guess optimism is infectious, he said. He also relies on comparisons of the unemployment rate to its moving average as a recession warning. He said those metrics are not signaling a recession either. He added that the PMIs are saying that the pattern of recession is being avoided. Inflation Investors should brace for moderately higher inflation. Inflation indicators, other than the PCE, are in an uptrend, he said. The internet-based PriceStats gauge is exactly in line with the CPI, and the ECRI inflation metric corroborates the rise in inflation. In response to some analysts who recently predicted a bond-market rally, Gundlach said, A forecast of a 1.5% 10-year yield looks awfully shaky. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 The inflation break-even rate, based on the difference between nominal Treasury and TIPS yields, is at 2%, its highest level since late That seems like a reasonable price he said, and TIPS and nominal Treasury bonds are fairly valued with respect to each other. Short term rates are heading up, including LIBOR. The 2% implied inflation forecast is for the next five years, which he said was possible but higher inflation is more likely. Average hourly earnings and overall wage growth are rising in the U.S., Europe and Japan, he said. Commodities put in a massive double bottom in January of 2016, Gundlach said, and gold bottomed in December of 2015; both are rising now. He said he has advocated a permanent gold position since 1990, although he is not wildly bullish on it, particularly following the Trump victory. Copper has fallen recently, which supports the modest bond rally that has occurred since mid- December. Oil inventories are very high and that is why Gundlach thinks $70/barrel oil is unlikely. Oil prices will vacillate between mid-$40s and high-$50s, he said. But the biggest story about inflation is in Germany. Below is what Gundlach called the chart of the webcast : Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 For a long time, German inflation was at or below the yield on its sovereign 10-year bond. But this chart shows that German CPI is now 1.7%, its highest level in 16 years. Yet the chart shows that the 10-year Bund yield is a mere 25 basis points, implying sharply negative real yields. Gundlach asked, rhetorically, how German yields can stay at that level with this much inflation. Bunds, he said, are vulnerable. The Fed Gundlach predicted that the Fed would not raise rates in March, but would in June and probably again later in the year. He assigned a 50% probability to a third rate increase. Since 2014, the Fed has been systematically reducing its projections of where short-term rates would be in 2017, according to Gundlach. Late last year, when inflation was starting to increase, the Fed was at its lowest projection. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 As a result, a narrative is developing that the Fed is behind the curve with respect to raising rates, but Gundlach doesn t think so. He said that lower rates will help finance the big infrastructure bill that is coming. Gundlach cited academic research that claimed to show that the Fed Funds rate would have needed to be at -3% to achieve the same effect as the quantitative easing (QE) programs it followed in the postcrisis period. Since it is no longer engaged in QE, it is effectively tightening at approximately that 300 basis point rate, and that policy has led to recessions in the past. But he cautioned against making too much of an inference from that research, because rates are at a different (lower) level that at the time of prior recessions. Bond market projections The 10-year closed at 2.38% on the day he spoke. He said it will go below 2.25% but not below 2% in the current rally. Analysts forecasts for the 10-year yield have been consistently too high over the last five years. Now forecasters are predicting a flat year, but Gundlach had a different view. I think rates are going to rise in 2017, he said. For sure rates are going to rise. Moreover, as he said in his prior webcast, if the 10-year yield surpasses 3%, the bond bull market is over from a classic chart perspective. He said that would also mean trouble for equity markets. Gundlach noted that another prominent bond manager had made the same prediction, but said the threshold was 2.60% instead of 3%. But Gundlach pointed out that the yield had already reached 2.64% last year. He did not name this manager, but it almost certainly was Bill Gross. In the short-term, though, he said, We are going to see another leg up on bond yields after this rally. Over the medium term, Gundlach said the 10-year yield could hit 6% in four years, about the time of the next presidential election. He noted that inflation and economic growth are already at levels similar to 2006, when interest rates were at 6%. A move to 6% would not be bad for bond investors, he said, given the opportunity to reinvest coupons at higher yields, and returns might be similar to what investors would have received on a stagnant 1.5% yield. Junk bonds are way off their highs, Gundlach said. They did great until mid-december but now are muddling along. Many investors think that because high-yield debt ended 2016 at a high price they are not vulnerable to an interest rate increases, he said. But that is incorrect, according to Gundlach; if rates move higher, high-yield bonds will not go up in price because spreads have already tightened. The high-yield ETF JNK tracked the S&P 500 in 2016, but that will not repeat in 2017, he said. In 2016, credit spreads drove prices; now it will be interest rates. Gundlach said he is neither bullish nor is he bearish on the dollar. The dollar will be supported by Fed rate hikes, but Gundlach doubted that the dollar (based on the DXY index) will go above $120 (it was at $102 on the day he spoke). Trump understands that a strong dollar sounds better than it actually is, Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Gundlach said, and that influences his dollar forecast, which is in opposition to the consensus, which favors a stronger dollar. The ratio of copper-to-gold prices is a fantastic coincident indicator of the economy and interest rates, Gundlach said. If copper keeps softening or gold goes up, it will support a bond rally in the short term. Investment recommendations Diversify outside of the U.S., Gundlach said. Usually analysts call for this following rallies outside the U.S., he said, which has not universally been the case. But the U.S. is richly valued and Gundlach said now is the time to look at other markets. U.S. stocks are at a high level relative to earnings, he said. Analysts are expecting a 20% increase in earnings, which would be helped by Trump s proposed tax cuts, according to Gundlach. But there is a lot of anticipated profit margin expansion in analyst earnings projections, he said. Unless earnings really pick up, he said, there will be a problem. Wages have picked up and the gross operating surplus across corporations has gone down, he said. The Shiller CAPE is getting near its 1929 levels, fueling his believe that that the U.S. is richly valued. Gundlach noted a few markets that he liked and a few he didn t. He favors India, which has been one of his picks for the last several years for long-term price appreciation Mexico is massively exposed to a potential tariff increase, he said, since 80% of exports are to the U.S. I am not fond of Mexican investments given that uncertainty. Given his neutral outlook on the dollar, he recommended an allocation to emerging markets. He noted that the S&P 500 has been outperforming emerging-market equities over the recent past, and that a reversal of that trend is coming. Gundlach also likes the Nikkei. He said that Abenomics is supportive of Japanese equities through automatic buying by the Bank of Japan. That policy is shrinking the Japanese market by 6% annually, he said. The yen will weaken more, so investors should hedge their currency exposure, according to Gundlach. But Gundlach doesn t recommend Europe because of election risks in France and the Netherlands. It is a bad bet to expect the populism trend to change, he said. There will be trouble in the next year. Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over
Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over December 6, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central
More informationGundlach s Top ETF Recommendation
Gundlach s Top ETF Recommendation November 17, 2017 by Robert Huebscher The money to be made is in non-u.s. markets, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. For long-term investors, he recommends a specific ETF.
More informationGundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out
Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be Burnt Out September 12, 2018 by Robert Huebscher Stimulative measures drive growth, and the U.S. economy and stock market have benefited from quantitative easing,
More informationGundlach s Warning to Corporate Bond Investors
Gundlach s Warning to Corporate Bond Investors November 14, 2018 by Robert Huebscher Corporate bonds offer incredibly poor prospects under any scenario, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. If rates rise, prices
More informationGundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds
Gundlach: I m Not Really Bullish on Bonds September 13, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the most respected bond managers in the world with over $100B in fixed-income assets under management,
More informationGundlach?s Predictions for 2013
Gundlach?s Predictions for 2013 January 15, 2013 by Robert Huebscher Don t expect the low volatility that characterized the capital markets in 2012 to continue. Global economic uncertainty remains, and
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2016
Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach is a prescient and accurate forecaster. Last week, as he does each January, he offered his market outlook. But unlike
More informationGundlach: Federal Debt is on a Suicide Mission
Gundlach: Federal Debt is on a Suicide Mission June 13, 2018 by Robert Huebscher The federal deficit and the cost to service that debt are rising at the same time. This historical anomaly is putting the
More informationGundlach's Forecast for 2015
Gundlach's Forecast for 2015 January 20, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Despite a fragile economic recovery now threatened by falling oil prices and the likelihood that the Fed will raise short-term rates, the
More informationGary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds
Gary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds February 17, 2015 by Robert Huebscher If you followed Gary Shilling s advice for the last 30 years, you would be very wealthy. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based
More informationAlbert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession
Albert Edwards Dollar Appreciation and a Global Recession January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher As the equity markets have suffered their worst performance ever to start a year, we ve heard the familiar
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low September 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More information2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000
2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000 January 4, 2019 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story has started to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly
More informationThe Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk
The Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk July 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance,
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationRisk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels
Risk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels 4 th March 2018 What a difference a few weeks make. At the end of January, financial markets were melting up, commentators were salivating
More informationThe yellow highlighted areas are bear markets with NO recession.
Part 3, Final Report: Major Market Reversal Model This is the third and final report on my major market reversal model. This portion of the model focuses on the domestic and international economy. I ve
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low November 5, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationFive key investment themes for 2015
Five key investment themes for 2015 Exiting QE in the US was always going to be a path of uncertainty for central bankers, globally and for markets and investors. There is simply no exact precedent for
More informationRecession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise December 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationThird Quarter Market Review
Third Quarter Market Review The S&P 500 continued its winning streak, with the index appreciating in value by 3.96% for the quarter (see chart below). This market barometer was up all three months of the
More informationA Recession Is Not On The Way
A Recession Is Not On The Way June 2, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch June Macro Update: Unemployment Claims at a 49 Year Low Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationIncreasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market
Increasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market This is a Markets Now Seminar March 27 th 2017 By David Fuller fullertreacymoney.com The Caledonian Club 9 Halkin Street London SW1Y
More informationGundlach: Treasuries will Rally When QE2 Ends
Gundlach: Treasuries will Rally When QE2 Ends April 19, 2011 by Robert Huebscher The bonds that PIMCO s Bill Gross sold to take a 3% short position in the Treasury market may have found a buyer in Doubleline
More informationThird Quarter /30/2018 1
Third Quarter 2018 The third quarter saw strong returns for U.S. equity investors. The S&P 500 returned 7.7% and year to date is up 10.6%. At 114 months and counting, as measured by the S&P 500, the current
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationMarket Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market?
December 16, 2018 Market Insight: It s Nasty Out There Is This a Bear Market? Year-end commentaries are supposed to be filled with reflection, thankfulness, and inspiration for the New Year. In the grand
More informationApril 11, 2013 BOARD MATTER NO. D-1. University of Wyoming Student Portfolio Management Program Update INFORMATION ONLY
April 11, 2013 BOARD MATTER NO. D-1 ACTION: University of Wyoming Student Portfolio Management Program Update INFORMATION ONLY ANALYSIS: The State Loan and Investment Board on December 15, 2005, authorized
More informationJeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks
Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks December 7, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a senior
More informationAugust Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption
August Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption August 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationGlobalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates
Deron T. McCoy CFA, CFP, CAIA, AIF Chief Investment Officer Originally written June 2014 Updated September 2014 Globalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates Globalization
More informationTurkey / Markets Research 11 January 2018
Turkey / Markets Research 11 January 2018 Global Strategy 2018 The year of inflation? Okan Ertem, FRM Global economic growth is supported with positive output gap Output gap returns back into positive
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationFinding Value Globally Across Asset Classes
Finding Value Globally Across Asset Classes May 24, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jae S. Yoon, CFA, is the chief investment officer and a portfolio manager at New York Life Investment Management LLC (NYLIM).
More informationNavigating the New Environment
Navigating the New Environment May 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes have rebounded from their correction lows, although remain
More informationJeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued
Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued November 21, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and
More informationTHE CHAPMAN REPORT FOR DECEMBER 22, 2008
THE CHAPMAN REPORT FOR DECEMBER 22, 2008 Charts and technical commentary by David Chapman Union Securities Ltd, 33 Yonge Street, Suite 901, Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1G4 fax (416) 604-0533, (416) 604-0557,
More informationMay Market Outlook. Bullish Case. The fear of a U.S. recession has been reduced by analysts and investors.
May Market Outlook Bullish Case Earnings forecasts for 2017 are higher. The fear of a U.S. recession has been reduced by analysts and investors. Interest rates, inflation and oil prices remain low, and
More informationFRONT BARNETT ASSOCIATES LLC
FRONT BARNETT ASSOCIATES LLC I N V E S T M E N T C O U N S E L September 7, 1999 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: FED HAWKS AND DOVES Despite the Federal Reserve s recent attempts to cool the U.S. economy, business
More information5CELEBRATING FIFTY YEARS
June 5, 2018 Coupon Maturity YTM Maturity YTM Tax Equiv. 2 Agency Coupon Maturity Price YTM To Muni (bp) 0.000% 05/23/19 2.28% 06/04/19 1.65% 2.35% FHLB 2.250% 04/26/19 $99.88 2.37% +2 2.500% 05/31/20
More informationJeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012
Jeremy Siegel on Dow 15,000 By Robert Huebscher December 18, 2012 Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a Senior Investment
More informationFebruary market performance. Index. Index. Global economies
March 2016 Global equity markets continued to correct through February but stage an early March recovery Oil prices staged a strong recovery from mid-february up 37% China economic data continued to consolidate
More informationWHY IS THIS HIKING CYCLE DIFFERENT FROM ALL OTHER HIKING CYCLES?
06 April 2017 By David Ader, Chief Macro Strategist for Informa Financial Intelligence Ader s musings. Let me start with the reality that the FOMC minutes for the March meeting didn t do much to stir the
More informationEconomy Check-In: Post 2008 Crisis Market Update Special Report
Insight. Education. Analysis. Economy Check-In: Post 2008 Crisis Market Update Special Report By Kevin Chambers The 2008 crisis was one of the worst downturns in American economic history. News reports
More informationThe next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation. Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Outline 1. Is there a New Normal ahead for stocks? 2. Is the
More informationUS Economic Outlook Improving
Government Bonds Have Never Looked Less Attractive OUTLOOK Executive Summary Kenneth J. Taubes Chief Investment Officer, US Economic Outlook US GDP growth may lead growth among developed nations, at approximately
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationThe Nutcracker and the Bond King
The Nutcracker and the Bond King 10-year bond yields have just experienced one of the sharpest 100-day percentage drops in over 50 years Interest rates are now below their closing level of the 666 March
More informationGrowing for nearly a decade. 114 months and counting, through December Will become longest Post-War expansion if it lasts through July
Economic Update Closing in on Expansion Record Byron Gangnes Professor of Economics Senior Research Fellow, UHERO University of Hawaii at Manoa VLI February 219 Hawaii Island Growing for nearly a decade
More informationHOPE FOR ROTATION. So, let me talk a little about each of these. Tariffs. Tariffs are restrictions to trade; they are a tax and they cause inflation.
HOPE FOR ROTATION We ve said repeatedly that we believe the current bull market will continue until there is either a recession or a restrictive monetary policy. So far, that position has been accurate
More informationStocks Laboring to Move Higher
Stocks Laboring to Move Higher August 31, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stocks indexes finally moved to new record highs but not exactly in
More informationUS Financial Market Update for March Prepared for the Market Technicians Association
US Financial Market Update for March 2016 Prepared for the Market Technicians Association March 16 th, 2016 About Asbury Research Research, Methodology & Clientele Our Research: Asbury Research, established
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments
U.S. Economic Outlook Recent developments Washington, D.C., 6 February 2018 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of Inés Bustillo, Director, ECLAC
More informationHurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion
Hurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion October 6, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2- year
More informationFund Managers Get Bullish
Fund Managers Get Bullish November 15, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts
More informationInvestment Perspective
JANUARY 2018 Investment Perspective Today, the investment outlook is favorable with solid growth, low inflation, healthy consumer confidence and positive investor sentiment The overall economic tone has
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK March 2016
Austrasse 56 P.O. Box 452 94 Vaduz, Liechtenstein asset@imt.li www.imt.li INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 03.2016 19 March 2016 Since mid-february markets have calmed significantly and risky assets have enjoyed a clear
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationEconomic Outlook and Review
Economic Outlook and Review 4 th Quarter, 2013 Investment Policy Committee Report November, 2013 Willard N. Woolbert Senior Vice President Chief Investment Officer woolbert@penntrust.com Jonathan M. Heckscher
More informationWILL YIELDS KEEP RISING?
LPL RESEARCH B O N D MARKET PERSPECTIVES February 6 2018 WILL YIELDS KEEP RISING? John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Colin Allen, CFA Assistant Vice President, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationIs The Market Predicting A Recession?
Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.
More information- Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931.
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Newsletter Summary. - Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931. - The US economy is moderating but is
More information2017 PREPARING FOR A YEAR OF REFLATION. Oct 20, 2016 Andreas Ruhlmann, Market Analyst at IG Bank
2017 PREPARING FOR A YEAR OF REFLATION Oct 20, 2016 Andreas Ruhlmann, Market Analyst at IG Bank DISCLAIMER CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses
More informationPA HealthCare Credit Union
PA HealthCare Credit Union 2014 Economic and Financial Forecast The PA HealthCare Credit Union is making your financial health better. 1 Agenda Welcome & Introduction Page 3 What we said was going to happen.
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationEconomic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)
Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic
More informationThe Global Recession of 2016
INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015
More informationThe Year Ahead
The Year Ahead - 2014 January 9, 2014 by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company In the spirit of year-end prognostication, here s my annual review of secular trends and historic behaviors that are likely
More informationAs Good as Gold. April 24, Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett
As Good as Gold April 24, 2013 Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett Whenever one of our investments experiences a significant price correction, we regard
More informationQ WestEnd Advisors. Macroeconomic Highlights. (888)
Q1 2017 WestEnd Advisors Macroeconomic Highlights www.westendadvisors.com info@westendadvisors.com (888) 500-9025 1 U.S. Economic Picture Prior to the November Election 3-Month Moving Average 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0
More informationThe Disconnect Continues
The Disconnect Continues Richard Bernstein June 3, 2011 Our strategies focus on finding disconnects between investor sentiment and the reality of improvement or deterioration in fundamentals. The current
More information10-Year Treasury Yield Upshifts past 3% as Fear of Curve Inversion Grows
10-Year Treasury Yield Upshifts past 3% as Fear of Curve Inversion Grows May 3, 2018 by Charles Roth of Thornburg Investment Management Stocks slide on rising rates and yield curve inversion concerns,
More informationYIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER
1-year minus -year UST (%) INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMENTARY YIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER December 4, 17 Investors focus on the yield curve with good reason an inverted curve has historically
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationSTA Wealth Management
STA Wealth Management Week of September 14th, 2015 LUKE PATTERSON General Partner and Chief Investment Officer STA Wealth Management STA Weekly Market Update It is difficult to believe the terror attacks
More informationWILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 14 2016 WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More information"Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control": After Half a Year since Its Introduction
March 24, 2017 B ank of Japan "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control": After Half a Year since Its Introduction Speech at a Reuters Newsmaker Event in Tokyo Haruhiko Kuroda
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationEconomic Discussion A Review of the Economy and Financial Markets
Economic Discussion A The Economy and Politics Last month we talked about uncertainties in Ukraine and Greece. Those situations inched toward resolution in recent weeks, but are far from resolved. A cease
More informationEconomic recovery dashboard
CURRENT AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2009 Economic recovery dashboard Summary of current state Market indicators Most indicators changed little over the previous month. VIX increased, closing the month at 30.69,
More informationTREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS
EMBARGOED: FOR RELEASE AT 4:00 P.M., EDT, THURSDAY, MAY 2, TREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS - During the first quarter of, the dollar appreciated 2.0 percent against the euro and
More informationOctober 12, Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP
October 12, 2017 Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP It is time to celebrate as the Dow approaches a multi-year target of 23,000. On October 5 th, the Dow reached 22,775, effectively
More informationOn Our Radar September 2015
On Our Radar September 2015 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite fell 6.56 percent, 6.25 percent, and 6.85 percent, respectively, in August, which was highlighted by a
More informationJob creation continues, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5% Earnings are expected to grow about 5% to 8% for 2016
2016 Market Outlook Many analysts and investors have low expectations for 2016 Bullish Case U.S. economy continues in expansion mode. Job creation continues, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5%
More informationAnother Three Go Down
Published by TFNN, Corp. ~ 601 Cleveland Street, Ste 618 Clearwater, FL 33755 ~ 1-877-518-9190 ~ http://www.tfnn.com ~ Copyright 2010 ~ All Rights Reserved Another Three Go Down Patterns Profits & Peace
More informationLAST CALL AT THE PUNCH BOWL?
LAST CALL AT THE PUNCH BOWL? The S&P 500 finished the June Quarter at 1,606.28. It was up 2.36% for the last three months and 12.63% since December 31 st. That compares to -4.87% and-2.45%, respectively,
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationCommodity Chart Book
Commodity Chart Book Cents / Bushel 920-0 Corn CORN - CBOT MONTHLY SELECTED FUTURES Chart Chart High: 843.75 on 08/10/2012 Chart Low 142.00 on 02/17/1987 Chart Low: 142.00 on 02/17/1987 Cents / Bushel
More informationFebruary 21, Dear Investors:
February 21, 2019 Crescat Capital LLC 1560 Broadway Denver, CO 80202 (303) 271-9997 info@crescat.net www.crescat.net Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle and timing it ahead of key inflection
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.
More informationArmstrong Investment Managers LLP. Investment Outlook Q1 2017
Armstrong Investment Managers LLP Investment Outlook Q1 2017 Trump & Brexit The combination of the Brexit outcome and Donald Trump s victory in the US presidential election has opened the doors for a new
More information