Demographics, Not Central Bankers Explain Slow World Growth

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Noah Foster
5 years ago
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2 World Growth Rates Going Nowhere Fast 2

3 Slowing Population Growth Triggered Slower World GDP World Real GDP World Real GDP per capita Source: 3

4 Despite Strong Central Bank Actions Including Bond Purchases 4

5 Which Have Reduced Interest Rates to Record Low Levels 5

6 Are Central Bankers Fighting a Demographic Battle They Can t Win? Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 6

7 Modest U.S. Population Growth Still Assumes over 1 Million Immigrants Per Year Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 7

8 Population Growth Slowing Around the World, Not Just the U.S. Population Growth 3.0% World Developed Developing 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Source: United Nations 8

9 Working Age Population Beginning to Shrink, Hurting U.S Growth Potential 1200 Net Change in U.S. Born Working Age Population Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 9

10 Working Age Populations Slowing Around the World 10

11 Potentially Shifting More of the Economic Pie Away from Corporations and to Workers Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database 11

12 Though the Latest Data Isn t Conclusive Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database 12

13 Older Consumers Who Spend Less, Growing the Fastest 13

14 Older Consumers Who Spend Less Growing the Fastest 70 Average Annual Household Spending by Age Group, Thousands of Dollars under Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morningstar Calculations 14

15 Per Capita Healthcare Spending Soars with Age Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 15

16 Are Demographics Destiny? Demographics Are Definitely a Headwind Good Policy Changes Have Let an Economy Outperform What Population Growth Suggests (Germany) And Bad Choices Can Really Sting (Europe 1980 s and 1990 s) Regulation, Taxes, Incentives and Infrastructure All Make a Difference Robots, Innovation and Productivity Could Shift the Tide 16

17 So Just How Well Is The U.S. Economy Doing? Volatile and Below the 3.1% Average Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar Calculations 17

18 Why Has GDP Growth Been so Slow? Demographics of an Aging Population Slower Population Growth Limited Growth in Government Spending De-Leveraging of Government and U.S. Consumers More Cash Flowing to Households that Spend a Smaller Percentage of Their Incomes Slow Housing Recovery 18

19 U.S. Economy, Modest Slowing From Recent Highs Continues The Outlook for 2017 Real U.S. GDP Growth of 1.75% to 2.0% CPI Inflation 2.0% to 2.2% Employment Growth Stabilizes at 190,000 Per Month Unemployment Rate Remains at 4.4% Ten-Year Treasury Rate Increases to 3.0%-3.5% Home Prices Increase 5.5%-6.0% 19

20 Economic Drivers Consumer Spending Up More Than 2%, However, Higher Inflation Will Lower Consumption Growth Less Fiscal Drag, Government Spending Stabilizes Housing Market Poised for Slow but Consistent Growth Business Spending and Exports Stabilize Micro Economic Factors 20

21 And Key Sectors Are Slowing Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar Calculations 21

22 Relative to Past Trends, Government and Investment Aren t Helping Much 22

23 And Consumption Is Accounting for Almost All of the Growth 23

24 Trump Policy Potential Impacts A Combination of Tax Cuts and Infrastructure Spending Could Stimulate Growth Immigration Reform Could Raise Wages, But Limit Labor Pool and GDP Growth Deregulation Could Lead to Greater Productivity and Improved Investment Environment Trade Restrictions Gains Likely to be Offset by Higher Prices and General Inflation Levels Uncertainty Regarding Concerning Implementation Could Limit Business Investment Inflation Worries and Spike in Interest Rates Could Hurt the Housing Market 24

25 Presidential Election Brings Winners and Losers 25

26 Consumption Drives 70% of U.S. Economy and Is Slowing 26

27 Employment Growth Drives Spending, Now Slowing 27

28 Employment Growth Diminishes. Worker Shortages, Job Shortages or Weather? 28

29 High Job Openings Suggest that Worker Shortages Are Increasing 29

30 Low Inflation Adjusted Hourly Wages Aren t Helping Matters Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 30

31 It s Not that Wage Growth Has Been Awful, But that Inflation Is Higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 31

32 Inflation Rises as Energy Price Deflation Disappears 32

33 And the Long Slide in Commodity Prices Ends with Better World Growth 33

34 Slowing Income and Wage Growth Tugging Consumption Down 34

35 World GDP Growth Picks Up Steam Source: International Monetary Fund 35

36 Chinese Stimulus Has Arrested the Slowing in GDP Growth Rates, Can It Last? 36

37 Chinese Debt Level, at 250% of GDP, Has Not Helped Growth 37

38 Chinese Loan Growth Metric Flashes Danger Signal Source: Bank for International Settlements 38

July 2012 Robert Johnson, CFA Director of Economic Analysis

U.S. Consumer: Key to World Growth Macro Overview July 2012 Robert Johnson, CFA Director of Economic Analysis 1 U.S. Economic Forecast 2012 Outlook: A Slow Start Before an Acceleration Real U.S. GDP Growth