September 12, 2013 Prospects for U.S. & Regional Economy Another year of muddling forward! Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D.
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1 September 12, 2013 Prospects for U.S. & Regional Economy Another year of muddling forward! Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D.
2 Speaker Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D. serves as chief economist for the National Retail Federation headquartered in Washington, D.C. He is principal and chief economist of Kleinhenz & Associates, an economic, financial consulting and wealth management firm headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. Mr. Kleinhenz is also a Regional Economist, Adjunct Professor of Economics at Case Western Reserve University s Weatherhead School of Management. Formerly with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Mr. Kleinhenz also served as chief economist and consultant to the Greater Cleveland Growth Association, the nation s largest chamber of commerce. Economic Consulting: Since 1998, Kleinhenz & Associates has been providing clients with well reasoned, high quality economic business research and analysis. Our unique methods of tailoring the right resources to your project results in timely, cost effective studies used to confidently make decisions and answer business questions clearly and effectively. Clients include Fortune 500 companies, financial service organizations, regulators, planners, universities, airports, manufacturers, chambers of commerce, trade associations, non profit organizations and state and locallgovernment agencies. Wealth Management: Kleinhenz & Associates provides investment advisory services to individual investors, families, small business and non profit organizations. We create customized solutions using a balanced investment discipline working with insight and integrity to earn trust over time. Find out how K&A can help you navigate through an ever changing business environment. Kleinhenz & Associates 7100 Euclid Avenue, Suite 100 Cleveland, Ohio
3 1. U.S. Economic Performance
4 GDP & Unemployment 4 % Real GDP Growth % Unemployment Rate Actual Forecast GD DP Une employment q 2008q 2009q 2010q 2012q 2013q 2014q BLS; BEA; Kleinhenz & Associates
5 BLS; Kleinhenz & Associates
6 BLS; Kleinhenz & Associates
7 Chicago Fed National Activity Index CFNAI (CFNAI) CFNAI 3 MO MA Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Kleinhenz & Associates
8 1. U.S. Economic Performance 2. Consumers & Household Spending 3. Business & Investment 4. Inflation & Federal Reserve 5. Summary & Economic Outlook
9 2013 Retail Sales (excluding MV, Gasoline, Food Services) 8.0% 60% 6.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.0% 00% 0.0% 2.0% % Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
10 14% 12% Bldg. mat. and garden equip., 82% 8.2%, 11.4% 10% Nonstore retailers, 8.0%, 10.3% 3 Month Moving Average Year/Yea ar 8% 6% 4% 2% Food and beverage, 3.8%, 3.6% Sport goods, hobby, book, music, 2.1%, 2.8% Electronics and appliance, 0.9%, 0.9% Clothing, 4.6%, 4.3% Miscellaneous, 6.2%, 4.4% Furniture and furnishings, 5.4%, 4.5% 3Month MA Year over Year All Retail = 4.0% 0% Health and personal care, 2.1%, 2.8% 2% Automotive parts, acc., tire, 1.3%, 2.4% Gen. Merchandise, 2.5%, 05% 0.5% 4% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 3Year Ave Annual Trend All Retail = 4.2% 3 Year Ave Annual Trend Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
11 May 13 Jun 13 Jul Retail Sales (excluding MV, Gasoline, Food Services) Y/Y % Change Nonstore NRF Sales NSA 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% Aug 13 Jan 12 Feb Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb Apr 13 Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
12 E commerce 25.0 % change yr ago (L) % of current retail sales (R) Q1 '07 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13 Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
13 Retail Employment and Openings Retail Openings (L) Retail Employment SA ( R) 575 Retail Employment in Thousands Job Openings in Thousands Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 BLS; Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
14 Factors Influencing Consumption Ability to Spend 1. Disposable Income 2. Vl Value of Home & Investments 3. Personal Savings 4. Access and use of Credit Willingness to Spend 1. Consumer Confidence 2. Job outlook Security 3. Inflation 4. Expectations of economy and personal finances
15 Personal Income, Wages and Consumption Monthly % Change 3.5% Consumption Personal Income Wages and Salaries 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun % 2.5% 25% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% BEA; Kleinhenz & Associates
16 The Effect of Housing Value Changes on Consumption Is Significant and Larger Dollar for Dollar than Equity Market Changes Wealth Effects Housing vs. Equity Markets House value up or down by $1 Consumer spending up or down by ~6 8, with about 80% of this effect experienced in one year Equity markets up or down by $1 Source: Conference Board The Demand Institute Consumer spending up or down by ~4 5
17 Household Debt back to early 2000s 19.0% 18.0% Financial Obligations Ratio Household Service Ratio 17.0% % of Disp posable Income 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Kleinhenz & Associates
18 Existing Home Sales & Median Price Home Sales Annuallized (SA) Median Sales Price 5,700,000 $220,000 5,500,000 $200,000 5,300,000 $180,000 5,100,000 4,900,000 $160,000 4,700,000 $140,000 4,500,000 $120, ,300,000 $100,000 Apr r 12 Jun n 12 Aug g 12 Oct t 12 Dec c 12 Feb b 13 Apr r 13 Jun n 13 Aug g 13 National Association of Realtors
19 Housing Recovery in 2013 Driver in Housing 4,800 Existing SF home sales, annual rate, ths. Related Retailers New SF home sales, annual rate, ths ,600 4, Existing SF Ho ome Sales 4,200 4,000 3,800 3, New SF hom me sales 3,400 3, , Census; Kleinhenz & Associates 200
20 Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales NRF 3Mo MA Y/Y Consumer Sentiment 7% 6.1% 85 3 mo Mov. Ave Y/ /Y 5% 3% 1% 2% 4% 4.2% U of M Con nsumer Sentime ent 6% 10 Jun 09 Jan 10 Aug Oct 11 May 12 Dec 12 Jul 13 University of Michigan; Kleinhenz & Associates
21 Credit Cards & Savings Revolving credit 3 MO MA (left) Savings Rate (right) Creidt % Change Sav ings Rate % Revolving Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Kleinhenz & Associates
22 1. U.S. Economic Performance 2 C h ld S di 2. Consumers Household Spending 3. Investment 4. Inflation & Federal Reserve 5. Summary & Economic Outlook
23 Housing Pipeline Housing Market Index (left) Single Family Starts (right) 70 2,000 tarts (in thousand units) 60 1,800 1, ,400 1,200 1,000 New Single Family S NAHB Housing Market Index 0 0 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 National Association Home Builders; Kleinhenz & Associates
24 Investment in Structures 12 month % change 20.0% 0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
25 Investment in Structures 12 month % change Year over Year % Change Private Nonres Public Private Residential 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Census; Kleinhenz & Associates
26 Nonresidential Building Projects in Planning Dodge Momentum Index (Year 2000=100) Dodge; Kleinhenz & Associates
27 Architects and Interior Designers 70 ASID Billings Index AIA Billings AIA; ASID; Kleinhenz & Associates
28 C & I Loan Standards Mostly Unchanged (Net % of Domestic Banks Tightening Commercial and Industrial loans Lending Standards) Large & Medium Firms Small Firms Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Kleinhenz & Associates
29 1. U.S. Economic Performance 2. Consumers Household Spending 3. Business & Investment 4. Inflation & Public Policy 5. Economic Outlook & Summary
30 Consumer Price Changes Percent Change for 12 months Ending July 2013 & February 2013 for U.S. 6.0% Aug 13 Feb % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% All Items Total Energy Gasoline Electricity Natural Gas Total Food Food at Home Food away from Home BLS; Kleinhenz & Associates
31 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% % 2.00% 3.00% Policy Uncertainty 3 Mo MA % y/y Retail Sales Uncertainty Index Debt Ceiling Dispute & Euro Debt Crisis Election & Fiscal Cliff Dec 09 Feb 10 Ap r 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oc t 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13
32 2014 Probability of Fed will reduce..? Mean Median 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Source: NABE 2013
33 Fed Funds Target & 10 Year T Note Yield Quarter end 10 Year Treasury Fed Funds Actual Forecast Q Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q2014 Kleinhenz & Associates
34 1. U.S. Economic Performance 2. Consumers Household Spending 3. Business & Investment 4 Ifl i Fd lr I i l 4. Inflation, Federal Reserve, International 5.Regional Economies
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37 Theleading index for each state predicts the sixmonth growth rate of the state s coincident index. ohio US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Kleinhenz & Associates
38 Modest 2013 Job Growth Picking up in 2014 Percent 0.9 to % 1.4 to to to 2.7 Source: IHS Global Insight
39 The long road to recovery Year of Return to Peak Employment Source: HIS Global Insight Return To Peak
40 The long road to recovery Year of Return to Peak Employment Return to Peak Source: IHS Global Insight
41 Ohio Employment 1.00= December 2004 Goods Producing Service Producing Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13
42 Shrinking Population But Less Can Be More!
43 Ohio Manufacturing MFG. Employment Hrs Hours nt ( thousands) H Employmen ec 07 ar 08 n 08 p 08 ec 08 ar 09 n 09 p 09 ec 09 ar 10 n 10 p 10 ec 10 ar 11 n 11 p 11 ec 11 ar 12 n 12 p 12 ec 12 ar 13 n 13 De Ma Ju Se De Ma Ju Se De Ma Ju Se De Ma Ju Se De Ma Ju Se De Ma Ju
44 Ohio Residential Construction Spending ( ) (as of IIQ) Quarterly 4 Quarter Moving Average Millions of Dollars 2001Q1 2001Q4 2002Q3 2003Q2 2004Q1 2004Q4 2005Q3 2006Q2 2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1
45 Employment Costs Wages Compensation US West East North Central South Northeast Percent Change Year over Year
46 Disclaimer: This report was prepared by Kleinhenz & Associates. Kleinhenz & Associates makes no warranty or representation, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in this report. Kleinhenz & Associates does not assume any liability with respect to the use of, or damages resulting from the use of, any information disclosed in this report.
47 Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D. i
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