U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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1 U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2018
2 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity
3 Economic Activity
4 Economic Activity Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate 4 Week MA: Thousands Percent Unemployment Initial Claims - 4 Week MA: (Left Side) Date Last Modified: 2/8/18 Last Data Point: 2/3/18 = NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of Labor. Unemployment Rate: (Right Side) Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January = 4.1
5 Economic Activity Index 70 ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing ISM Nonmanufacturing Date Last Modified: 2/5/18 Last Data Point: January = 59.9 ISM Manufacturing Date Last Modified: 2/1/18 Last Data Point: January = 59.1 NOTES: Grey shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Measurements above 50 indicate expanding activity; measurements below 50 indicate falling activity. SOURCE: Institute for Supply Management.
6 Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars Durable Goods Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: December = 249 NOTE: Grey shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Excl. Transportation: Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: December = 162
7 Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Confidence (Index = 100 in 1985) Date Last Modified: 1/30/18 Last Data Point: January = Sentiment (Index = 100 in 1964): Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January = 95.7 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCES: The Conference Board; Survey of Consumers; Survey Research Center; U. of Michigan.
8 Economic Activity Thousands of Jobs 600 Change in Nonfarm Employment Change in Nonfarm Employment Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January = Year Average SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Author's calculations.
9 Economic Activity Index, March 1973 = Real Value of the Dollar Exchange Value of the US $ Date Last Modified: 2/1/18 Last Data Point: January = NOTES: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. *Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. US $ vs. Major Currencies* Date Last Modified: 2/1/18 Last Data Point: January = 99.16
10 Economic Activity 1 month % change 1.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Real PCE Date Last Modified: 1/29/18 Last Data Point: December =.29 3 Year Average SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Author's calculations.
11 Economic Activity 1 quarter % change annualized 6 Real GDP Real GDP Date Last Modified: 1/26/18 Last Data Point: 2017 Q4 = Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
12 Economic Activity Thousands 2,500 Housing Starts and Permits 2,000 1,500 1, Housing Starts Date Last Modified: 1/18/18 Last Data Point: December = 1192 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Permits Date Last Modified: 1/25/18 Last Data Point: December = 1300
13 Economic Activity 1 month % change 2 Industrial Production Industrial Production Date Last Modified: 1/17/18 Last Data Point: December =.9 3 Year Average SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board.
14 Economic Activity 1-month % change 4 Retail Sales Retail Sales Date Last Modified: 1/12/18 Last Data Point: December =.35 3 Year Average SOURCES: Census Bureau; Author's calculations.
15 Wages and Prices
16 Wages and Prices Headline and Core Consumer Price Index 12-month % change Headline CPI Date Last Modified: 2/7/18 Last Data Point: December = 2.1 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI Date Last Modified: 2/7/18 Last Data Point: December = 1.8
17 Wages and Prices 1967 = 100, End of Period 1,200 Commodity Prices 1, KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January = 963 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. KR-CRB stands for Knight-Ridder Commodity Research Bureau. SOURCE: Commodity Research Bureau. KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Materials Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January = 526
18 Wages and Prices 1 month % change 0.6 Average Hourly Earnings Average Hourly Earnings Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January =.13 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
19 Wages and Prices 1 quarter % change 1.0 Employment Cost Index Employment Cost Index Date Last Modified: 1/31/18 Last Data Point: 2017 Q4 =.6 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
20 Wages and Prices 12-month % change 5 PCE Price Index Headline PCE Date Last Modified: 1/29/18 Last Data Point: December = 1.7 NOTES: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Dashed line indicates Fed target inflation rate of 2 percent. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE Date Last Modified: 1/29/18 Last Data Point: December = 1.5 Trimmed Mean PCE Date Last Modified: 1/29/18 Last Data Point: December = 1.7
21 Wages and Prices 1 month % change 4 Producer Price Index PPI Date Last Modified: 1/11/18 Last Data Point: December = Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
22 Wages and Prices 1 month % change 1.0 Core Producer Price Index Core PPI Date Last Modified: 1/11/18 Last Data Point: December = 0 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23 Financial Activity
24 Financial Activity Percent Real Federal Funds Rate -6 Target Fed Funds Rate less U. Michigan Expected Inflation Date Last Modified: 2/2/18 Last Data Point: January = -1.3 Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Date Last Modified: 2/9/18 Last Data Point: = -.72 SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; FRB Philadelphia; Survey of Consumers; Survey Research Center; U. of Michigan.
25 Financial Activity Short-Term Interest Rates Percent SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. 3-Month LIBOR Date Last Modified: 2/11/18 Last Data Point: 2/9/18 = 1.8 Discount Window Primary Credit Rate Date Last Modified: 2/9/18 Last Data Point: 2/8/18 = 2 3-Month T-Bill Rate Date Last Modified: 2/9/18 Last Data Point: 2/8/18 = 1.55 Target Fed Fund Rate Date Last Modified: 2/9/18 Last Data Point: 2/9/18 = 1.375
26 Financial Activity Percent 7 Long-Term Interest Rates SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. Mortgage Rate Date Last Modified: Week of 2/8/18 Last Data Point: 2/8/18 = year T-Bond Date Last Modified: Week of 2/5/18 Last Data Point: 2/2/18 = 2.75
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