Currency Economic Calendar

Transcription

1 Currency Economic Calendar

2 Event For Period When Importance Markit Manufacturing PMI Previous Month First working day Markit Services PMI Previous Month First week Forex Reserves Last Week Every Friday CPI Previous Month 12th of every month Industrial Production 2 Months Prior 12th of every month WPI Previous Month Day after CPI release Trade Balance Previous Month Day after CPI release Federal Fiscal Deficit Previous Month Last week GDP Previous Quarter Last week Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate Previous Month First Week, Friday JOLTS Job Openings 2 Months Prior Usually around 10th Initial Jobless Claims Previous Week Every Thursday ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Previous Month First Week, Wednesday GDP Previous Quarter Last week Factory Orders 2 Months Prior First Week Trade Balance 2 Months Prior First Week PPI Previous Month Second Week CPI Previous Month Between 10th-5th Retail Sales Previous Month 10th working day Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Expectations Current Month Last Friday Industrial Production Previous Month Around 15th ISM/Markit Manufacturing PMI Previous Month First working day ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI/Markit Services PMI/Markit Composite Final PMI India Monthly Data Releases US Monthly Data Releases Previous Month First week Housing Starts/Building Permits Previous Month Third Week Business Inventories 2 Months Prior 14th or 15th working day Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Previous Month Third Week New Home Sales Previous Month Last week Existing Home Sales Previous Month Last week Durable Goods Order Previous Month Last week Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Previous Month Last week Chicago Fed National Activity Index Previous Month Third Week

3 UK Monthly Data Releases Construction PMI Previous Month First Week Manufacturing PMI Previous Month First working day Services PMI Previous Month First Week Industrial Production 2 Months Prior Second Week Manufacturing Production 2 Months Prior Second Week Trade Balance 2 Months Prior Second Week Claimant Count Change Previous Month Third Week's Wednesday Unemployment Rate 2 Months Prior Third Week's Wednesday CPI Previous Month Third Week's Tuesday PPI Previous Month Third Week's Tuesday Retail Sales Previous Month Third Week's Thursday GDP Previous Quarter Last week Europe Monthly Data Releases Manufacturing PMI Previous Month First working day Unemployment Rate 2 Months Prior First working day Markit Composite PMI Previous Month First week Markit Services PMI Previous Month First week PPI 2 Months Prior First week Retail Sales 2 Months Prior First week GDP First Prelim/Second Prelim Previous Quarter First week/around 15th GDP (Actual) Previous Quarter First week Industrial Production 2 Months Prior Second week Trade Balance 2 Months Prior Third week ZEW Economic Sentiment Current month Third week CPI Previous Month Third week Japan Monthly Data Releases Manufacturing PMI Current Month Last working day Currenct Account 2 Months Prior Second week PPI Previous Month Second week Industrial Production 2 Months Prior Second week Trade Balance Previous Month Third week CPI Previous Month Last Friday Unemployment Rate Previous Month Last week Retail Sales Previous Month Last week GDP Previous Quarter 7th of last month of every quarter

4 2018 RBI Meetings February 6th-7th July/August 31st-1st April 4th-5th October 3rd-4th June 5th-6th December 4th-5th January 2018 FOMC Meetings 30th-31st July/August 31st-1st March 20th-21st* September 25th-26th* May 1st-2nd November 7th-8th June 12th-13th* December 18th-19th* February 2018 BoE Meetings 8th August 2nd March 22nd September 13th May 10th November 1st June 21st December 20th 2018 ECB Meetings January 25th July 26th March 8th September 13th April 26th October 25th June 14th December 13th 2018 BoJ Meetings January 22nd July 30th March 8th September 18th April 26th October 30th June 14th December 19th ADP Nonfarm Employment change: The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 US business clients. Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) also releases non-farm payrolls number by its own estimates two days prior to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment situation report. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report. Impact: A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally positive for USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative for USD. Investors and economists see the ADP report as a preview of the more detailed and comprehensive government data release. Building Permits: Building Permits measure the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market. Impact: A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally Business Inventories: It measures the change in the worth of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Impact: A high reading can indicate a lack of consumer demand, or alternatively that companies are stocking up in anticipation of an upsurge in demand. A reading that is higher than forecast is generally bearish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally bullish for the USD.

5 Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. Impact: A reading higher than expected is taken as bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading is taken as negative for the USD. Claimant Count Rate is a monthly measure of unemployment in the UK. Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth. Impact: Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the GBP, while an increase is seen as negative for GBP. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure: The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. This is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation. Impact: Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish. CPI: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. Impact: Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the country s currency, while a low reading is seen as negative for the currency. This holds true for developed countries like US, Europe and UK where the inflation is already below their respective central banks targets. However, for developing countries like India, where inflation is already high and RBI is targeting a lower inflation, a high CPI reading is seen as negative for rupee, whereas a lower CPI reading is seen as positive for rupee. Current Account Deficit: The difference between a nation's total exports of goods and services, and its total imports. Current account balance calculations exclude transactions in financial assets and liabilities. Impact: A reading that is higher than expected is generally negative for rupee, while a lower than forecast reading is generally positive for the rupee. Durable Goods Orders: Durable Goods Orders measure the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. Impact: A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative for the USD. Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment: The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index measures the six-month economic outlook for the euro zone. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of the economic health. The reading is compiled from the survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. Impact: A reading that is higher than expected is generally bullish for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally bearish for the EUR. Existing Home Sales: Existing Home Sales measure the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the prior month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the US housing market and is an important indicator of the overall economic strength. Impact: A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative for the USD. Factory Orders: An economic indicator that reports the level of new factory orders for both durable and non-durable goods. The factory orders report is released monthly. Impact: An increase in the factory orders may indicate an expansion in the economy. A high reading is positive for the currency, while a low reading is negative. Fiscal Deficit (India) is the difference between the Indian government s revenue and its expenditure. Impact: If the reading is negative, it means the Indian accounts are in a surplus, and that is considered positive for rupee. However, a rise in the fiscal deficit is considered negative or the domestic currency. Forex reserves (India) are released by the Reserve Bank of India. RBI releases the data showing changes in the value of official reserve assets reflecting purchases and sales (including swaps) of foreign exchange by the Central Bank, earnings on foreign securities, and transactions with official institutions overseas. Impact: A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the rupee, while a low reading is seen as Bearish for rupee. GDP: The Gross Domestic Product shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Impact: Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the currency of that country, while a low reading is negative.

6 Housing Starts: This measures the change in the number of new constructions underway. It indicates movement of the US housing market. The construction industry is one of the first to go into a recession when the economy declines but also to recover as conditions improve. Impact: A reading that is higher than forecast is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally Initial Jobless Claims(US): Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The data provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A higher than expected reading indicates weakness in the labor market. Impact: Normally, a reducing number is considered as positive or bullish for the USD whereas a higher reading is considered as negative for USD. Industrial Production: Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Impact: A high industrial production growth is positive for the currency of the country whereas, a lower reading is bearish for the country s currency. Institute of Supply Management (ISM): Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting. Impact: A reading that is higher than forecast is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally JOLTS Job Openings: JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. It is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. Impact: A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally Manufacturing Production: Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80 per cent of overall Industrial Production. Impact: A high reading is seen as positive for the currency of that country, while a low reading is seen as bearish. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the country. The PMI is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Impact: Readings above 50 suggests the economy is expanding, and is bullish for the currency of that country. However, a reading below 50 suggests an economic contraction, and is bearish for the currency. Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Expectations: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment and expectations is a monthly survey of the US consumer confidence levels conducted by the University of Michigan. It is based on telephone surveys that gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. It gives a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers. Impact: A higher reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as bearish for USD. New Home Sales: The number of New Home Sales released by the US Census Bureau is an important measure of housing market conditions. This report tells the annualized number of new homes that were sold during the prior month. Impact: Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish. Non-Farm Payrolls: Nonfarm payrolls is a term used in the US to refer to any job with the exception of farm work, unincorporated self-employment and employment by private households, nonprofit organizations and the military and intelligence agencies. Proprietors are also excluded. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases closely followed monthly data on nonfarm payrolls as part of its Employment Situation Report. The headline figure that is the change in the total number of nonfarm payrolls compared to the previous month is used as a gauge of economic health. Impact: A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally positive for USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative for USD. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index measures the relative level of business conditions amongst manufacturers in the Federal Reserve district. Impact: A reading that is higher than forecast is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative for the USD.

7 PPI: The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the input prices of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Impact: A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the currency, while a low reading is seen as negative for the currency. This holds true for developed countries like US Europe and UK where the inflation is already below their respective central banks targets. However, for developing countries like India where inflation is already high and RBI is targeting a lower inflation a high PPI reading is seen as negative for rupee whereas a lower PPI reading is seen as positive for rupee. Retail Sales: Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Impact: A reading that is higher than forecast is generally bullish for the currency, while a weaker than expected reading is generally bearish for the currency. Services PMI: The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) captures business conditions in the services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the services PMI is an important indicator of the overall economic conditions. Impact: A result above 50 is considered bullish for the currency of that country, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish. Trade Balance: The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. Impact: A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. A positive and higher than previous value should be considered as bullish for the currency of that country, whereas a negative value is considered as bearish for the currency. UK Construction PMI: The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the construction industry. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the construction industry; a reading below indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the construction section in the UK. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have an early access to data about their company s performance, which can be a leading indicator of the overall economic performance. Impact: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/ bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/ bearish for the GBP. Unemployment Rate: The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and was actively seeking employment during the previous month. It comes along with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payrolls report. Impact: A lower reading is seen as positive for the USD, while an increase in reading is seen as negative for the US dollar. WPI Inflation (India): The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers. The wholesale price index (WPI) is based on the wholesale price of some selected relevant commodities from a list of vast commodities available. Impact: In Indian context a higher than expected reading is taken as bearish for rupee, while a lower than expected reading is taken as positive for rupee.