Economic Indicators of the Week... 6

Transcription

1 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Another Brexit Delay #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Gas is pushing up inflation. ff U.S. unemployment insurance claims are the lowest since October ff Canada: The number of housing starts is back on its trend. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: Retail sales and housing starts are expected to increase, but industrial output may decline. ff Canada: The total inflation rate should climb back to the median target. ff Canada: The trade balance may deteriorate somewhat in. ff Canada: Retail sales should rebound in. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Solid economic data in China lift the stock markets. ff Bond yields rise. ff Renewed risk appetite causes the greenback to retreat. ff Brexit delay lowers immediate uncertainty. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2019, Group. All rights reserved.

2 Key Statistics of the Week ff After three months of zero change in a row (November to January) and a gain in, the consumer price index (CPI) leaped in. Energy prices rose 3.5%, the strongest growth since September It was sparked by a 6.5% hike in gas prices. Food prices were up %. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only %, as it did in. This is the first time since summer 2017 that it has gone up less than for two months in a row. Among other things, clothing prices dropped %. The annual variation in the total CPI sped up for the first time since October, going from % to %. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, slid from % to %. ff As predicted, housing starts were up in, going from 166,290 to 192,527 units. The increase is mainly due to multi-unit housing in urban areas, which had fallen far too low in. Quebec stands out with a total gain of 23,200 units in, which means that all the other provinces combined had only 3,000 units. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff The University of Michigan consumer confidence index declined, according to the preliminary version, going from 98.4 to 96.9, although it is still far higher than January s low of The decline is due to lowered consumer expectations (-3.0 points), even as confidence in the current situation went up slightly (+0.9 point). ff Initial weekly unemployment claims fell in recent weeks, from 244,000 at the end of January to 196,000 last week. They have not been this low since October Francis Généreux, Senior economist Initial unemployment claims fell to a new low Despite s rebound, housing starts are still on a downward trend Initial unemployment claims Housing starts Annualized In thousands In thousands of units Lowest since October Sources: Office for Workforce Security and, Economic Studies Level Trend 6-month moving average Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and, Economic Studies 2

3 Financial Markets Solid Data in China Ends the Week on a Bright Note Risk appetite pushed up the U.S. stock market and commodity prices on Monday. The International Monetary Fund s (IMF) downgraded forecast for economic growth hurt markets on Tuesday, however. The stock market caught up somewhat on Wednesday, with U.S. inflation still under control and the ongoing caution shown by the central banks. The momentum gained traction on Friday morning, as exports and new loans picked up steam in China: a positive sign for the global economy. Industrial activity in Europe was also more resilient than expected. All in all, the S&P 500 index was heading for a weekly gain of less than 1% at the time of writing. Canada s stock market mostly followed the U.S. trend. The announcement that Brexit was deferred until October 31st had a noteworthy impact on the stock market in the United Kingdom, especially for companies in the tourism industry. Oil had a pretty good week overall, especially on Monday and Friday. After rallying on Monday, U.S. bond yields declined once again on Tuesday and Wednesday following the IMF s forecasts, inflation data and cautious monetary policies. The trend then reversed, with a sharper rebound on Friday on the release of encouraging Chinese data. The 2 year and 10 year yields were around 2.40% and 5% respectively on Friday morning. Canadian bond yields also moved in a seesaw pattern this week. At the time of writing, the 2 year yield was around 1.65%, while the 10 year yield was around %. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,925 16,500 2,900 16,400 2,875 2,850 16,300 2,825 16,200 2,800 16,100 2,775 16,000 2,750 2,725 15, /02/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/11 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points -4 In % The U.S. dollar lost some of its shine this week. This reflects investors greater appetite for risk, which more apparent on Friday morning. The euro performed particularly well against the greenback, earning around a cent for the week to US$3. The postponement of Brexit gave the euro a boost, as did some upbeat data released in the euro zone. The pound did not rise as much as the euro. The British economy is likely to remain affected in the next few months by the uncertain outcome of Brexit. The Canadian dollar rebounded back above US$5 early in the week, buoyed by rising oil prices and favourable market sentiment. It then struggled to maintain its gains but was back on an upswing by Friday. Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist /02/ /03/08 Spread (left) 2019/03/ /03/26 United States (right) 2019/04/ /04/11 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /03/2019 Canadian dollar (left) 03/04/ /04/2019 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3

4 A Look Ahead TUESDAY 16-9:15 % % WEDNESDAY 17 - January US$B Industrial production () Industrial production stagnated in after slight dips in both December and January. A surge in energy production managed to offset the decline in manufacturing and the slip in the mining sector. The opposite should happen in, though. We expect the manufacturing sector to do better, although the automobile industry could still contract based on hours worked in. The recent more normal weather has no doubt pushed energy production back down after its 3.6% climb in. So, we are expecting a % upturn in manufacturing but a % downturn in total production. Trade balance () In December 2018, the United States posted its worst trade balance since 2008, although things got better in January when the deficit shrank from -US$59.9B to -US$5B. However, a new deterioration is predicted for. After rising 0.9%, nominal exports could go up a further %, mainly due to higher prices. Imports fell 2.6% in January but should increase close to %. Overall, the deficit should reach -US$53.4B. THURSDAY % 1.0% - Retail sales () After dropping 1.6% in December, retail sales rose in January and then dipped back in, which is a poor showing. We expect a much better performance for. One of the main negative contributors, the automobile sector, should grow strongly if the sales of new automobiles released at the beginning of the month are to be relied on. Increased gas prices could boost the value of service station sales by close to 3.0%. Better weather has probably been kind to the food services sector. A possible 1.6% drop in clothing prices may be the only cloud on the horizon and should impact sales value. An increase of % is anticipated in sales, not including automobiles and gas. A total gain of 1.0% is expected. THURSDAY 18-10:00 Leading indicator () After several weak months, the leading indicator was up in. We expect an even stronger increase for. Fewer jobless claims will predominately shore up that indicator. With the ISM index, markets and consumer confidence all making positive contributions as well, the leading indicator is expected to rise in, the best gain since September This monthly growth should boost the leading indicator s annual change for the first time in six months. FRIDAY 19 - Housing starts () In, housing starts had their worst monthly decline since June 2018, with an 8.7% drop following an 11.7% surge in January. We expect a better performance in. That is what the level of building permits suggests, coupled with the creation of 4,700 jobs in residential construction during the month. The rebound of new home sales since December is also a positive sign. Housing starts are expected to reach 1,250,000 units in. ann. rate 1,230,000 1,250,000 1,162,000 TUESDAY 16 - January -% -% 1.0% Manufacturing sales () After a difficult end to the year, manufacturing sales bounced back in January, rising 1.0%. But even though some favourable factors remain, like the good showing of the Ivey PMI index, could end with a further decline in sales. The number of new orders fell 1% in January, and order backlogs were down 1.0%; both those results presage difficulties for. 4

5 WEDNESDAY 17 - $B January International merchandise trade () Expressed in Canadian dollars and adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, commodity prices were up about % in. There was a substantial increase in the energy sector as the price of Canadian oil continued to rise after the Alberta government put a reduction on production. That will partially offset the lower volume of oil exports resulting from the reduction. U.S. data on industrial output also point to slight growth in the North American automobile industry in, which should have a positive effect on Canadian exports. In light of all those inconsistent influences, practically no monthly change for exports is expected in. The rise in imports of recent months may continue, but at a slower pace. In the end, the trade balance should show a slight decline. WEDNESDAY 17 - Consumer price index () According to prices at the pump, gas went up 11.2% in, which could lead to a contribution of +7% to the total consumer price index (CPI) monthly change. We usually see seasonal price fluctuations of about +% in, mainly due to a significant rise in the price of clothing as the spring collections hit the stores. If we also factor in the slight upward trend of other components, should close with a monthly growth of, as did. The annual change in total CPI could go from % to %. THURSDAY % January -% Retail sales () The seasonally adjusted price of goods was up in. Gas prices were also up %. Not including gas and automobiles, prices rose %, the strongest increase since It goes without saying that those higher prices will boost the value of retail sales. Sales of new automobiles were also up slightly in, according to preliminary figures. In the end, the value of retail sales could increase 0.9% in. OVERSEAS TUESDAY 16-22:00 Q Q y/y 6.3% 6.4% China: Real GDP (Q1) The annual change of China s real GDP slowed down consistently throughout the last three quarters of It would not be surprising to see 2019 start the same way. The consensus expects the growth to go from 6.4% to 6.3%, but it is still hard to assess the performance of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year, because monthly data such as retail sales or industrial output are either missing or more volatile due to the Chinese New Year. 5

6 Economic Indicators Week of 15 to 19, 2019 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data MONDAY 15 13:00 16:00 20:00 Empire manufacturing index Speech of the Chicago Fed President, C. Evans Net foreign security purchases (US$B) Speech of the Boston Fed President, E. Rosengren TUESDAY 16 9:15 9:15 10:00 Industrial production () Production capacity utilization rates NAHB housing market index 79.2% 64 % 78.9% % 78.2% 62 WEDNESDAY 17 10:00 12:45 14:00 Trade balance Goods and services (US$B) Wholesale inventories Speech of the St. Louis Fed President, J. Bullard Release of the Beige Book % 206, , , % % 1.0% % - - % 1,230,000 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,285,000 1,162,000 1,291,000 -% 30 -% % % % % % % % 0.9% % -% % THURSDAY 18 Initial unemployment claims Philadelphia Fed index Retail sales Total () Excluding automobiles () 10:00 Leading indicator () 10:00 Business inventories () FRIDAY Housing starts (ann. rate) Building permits (ann. rate) MONDAY 15 9:00 10:30 Existing home sales Release of the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey TUESDAY 16 International transactions in securities ($B) Manufacturing sales () WEDNESDAY 17 International trade ($B) Consumer price index Total () Excluding food and energy () Total (y/y) Excluding food and energy (y/y) THURSDAY 18 Retail sales Total () Excluding automobiles () FRIDAY 19 Markets closed (Good Friday) Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6

7 Economic Indicators Week of 15 to 19, 2019 Country Hour Indicator Period (q/q) y/y Previous data (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS MONDAY 15 TUESDAY 16 Japan United Kingdom Euro zone Germany Germany Japan China China China 0:00 4:30 19:50 22:00 22:00 22:00 Tertiary industry activity index ILO unemployment rate Construction ZEW survey Current situation ZEW survey Expectations Trade balance ( B) Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales - 3.9% 3.9% -1.4% Q1 1.4% 6.3% % 6.0% 8.4% WEDNESDAY 17 South Korea Japan Euro zone Italy United Kingdom United Kingdom Euro zone Euro zone Italy --0:30 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:30 Bank of Korea meeting Industrial production final Current account ( B) Current account ( M) Consumer price index Producer price index Trade balance ( B) Consumer price index Trade balance ( M) THURSDAY 18 Germany United Kingdom Japan 2:00 4:30 19:30 Producer price index Retail sales Consumer price index -% FRIDAY 19 Italy Italy 4:00 4:00 Consumer confidence Economic confidence % % % 1.0% 1.4% % 1.4% % % 17.0 % % % 4.6% % - 6.4% 5.7% 8.2% -1.0% % % % 2.6% 4.0% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). 7

8 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index (Dec = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year ,765 13,032 3, , ,553 3,509 19, Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 ISM non-manufacturing index1 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits (k)1 New home sales (k)1 Existing home sales (k)1 Commercial surplus ($M)1 Nonfarm employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price ( = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year * ,012 14,617 4, , , * * , ,499 2,014 1,162 1, ,510-51, , ,273 1, ,930-59, ,206 1, ,210-56, ,280 1, ,350-51,444 1, ,290 1, ,610-53,090 2, * * * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8

9 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year Current account balance ($M)1 2,063,439 1,166, , , ,315 13, , ,843 2,036, , , , , , , ,882 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) ,237, , Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) Employment (k)2 1 Unemployment rate (%) Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 1,949, ,479 57, ,829 50, , ,547-4,246-4, ,699 47,575 51, , ,012 16, ,001, * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9

10 ,, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) ,901 26,335 1, ,893 26,425 1, ,822 25,849 1, ,596 23,996 1, ,767 25,340 1, ,656 24,360 1, ,931 26,828 1, ,750 25,118 1, ,351 21,792 1, Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target -5 Treasury bill 3 months -4 Treasury bonds 2 years -6 Treasury bonds 5 years -3 Treasury bonds 10 years -7 Treasury bonds 30 years S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 16, , , , , , , , , Overseas Euro zone ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) , , , , , , , , , Germany Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) 5 12, , , , , , , , ,382 Japan BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 0 21, , , , , , , , , CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10