Stock Market Suffers Biggest Weekly Loss Since Winter 2016

Transcription

1 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Stock Market Suffers Biggest Weekly Loss Since Winter 2016 #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Jobs and wages off to a good start in ff United States: Slight decline in ISM manufacturing in November. ff United States: No surprises during the last meeting chaired by Janet Yellen. ff Canada: Real GDP by industry rose % in November. A LOOK AHEAD ff Canada: The labour market could gain some strength in January. ff Canada: New restrictive measures could drag down housing starts in January. ff Canada: The trade balance could improve somewhat in December. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Optimism has fled the stock markets, which posted weekly drops of 3.0% in the United States and 3.5% in Canada. ff U.S. and Canadian bond yields were up due to inflationary pressure and anxiety about the debt. ff The U.S. dollar has remained stable. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2018, Group. All rights reserved.

2 Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES ff The establishment survey shows that 200,000 new jobs were created in January following December s 160,000 new jobs. The unemployment remained at 4.1% in January for the third consecutive month. The average hourly wage rose 0.3% in January following a % increase in December. The annual change went from % to 2.9%. ff Real GDP by industry increased % in November, which is in line with expectations. Goods-producing sectors posted a 0.8% gain. The manufacturing sector had its greatest monthly increase in just over three years, featuring a gain of 1.8%. Almost half of November s economic growth can be attributed to manufacturing. The service industries were up 0.3%, and most of the sectors went up in November. With the figures for two out of three months, we now have a better idea of the overall Q picture. If the increase of real GDP by industry continues in line with the average over the past six months (gaining around 0.2%), Q4 should close with an annualized increase of close to 2.0%. ff It came as no surprise that the Federal Reserve (Fed) did not increase its key rate at its meeting that ended on January 31st. The statement contains few changes in comparison to that of December. The Fed reiterated its positive reading of the labour market. It also emphasized the gains in consumption and investment. Nonetheless, there is a feeling of a slight uptick in confidence regarding inflation and the target of 2%. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff The ISM manufacturing index was almost flat in January, slipping by 0.2 points after rising points in December. It remains fairly close to its peak of 60.2 reached in September. Most components were up in January, with inventories and prices making the biggest gains. The declines stem from labour (-3.9), new orders (-2.0) and current production (-). ff Growth in real consumption slowed in December. The monthly change slipped from 0.5% in November to 0.3%. ff The Conference Board consumer confidence index was up in January, rising from to ff New automobile sales declined in December from 17,760,000 units (annualized) in November to 17,070,000. ff The S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices in the 20 largest cities posted a monthly change of % in November. The index s annual change went from 6.32% to 6.41%. ff Construction spending was up % in December, after gaining % in November. Residential construction grew % and private non-residential construction increased %. Public construction rose by 0.3%. The economy picked up again in November Real GDP by industry In 2007 $B Francis Généreux, Senior economist 1,765 Quarterly averages 1,745 1,725 1,705 1,685 1,665 1,645 JAN APR. JUL. OCT. JAN APR. JUL. OCT. JAN APR. JUL. OCT. Sources: Statistics Canada and, Economic Studies 2

3 Financial Markets Greater volatility for stocks and bonds The U.S. stock markets plummeted at Tuesday s opening bell, and then alternated between ups and downs as good corporate results contrasted with the overall mood of pessimism. S&P 500 posted its greatest loss in two years, around 3%. That was partly due to the strength of bond yields and the hike in oil production. The downward turn in Canadian stock markets was accentuated by with a drop of close to 3.50% for the S&P/TSX. Among the reasons for that are weak WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil prices, the strength of bond yields and the loonie, combined with widespread pessimism. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,875 16,500 2,825 16,350 16,200 2,775 16,050 2,725 15,900 2,675 15,750 U.S. short- and long-term bond yields have shot up since Wednesday. There have been fears about the effects of tax cuts on the U.S. debt, as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised the date when the Treasury exhausts its borrowing capacity under the special debt ceiling measures from April to March. In addition, the strong wage increases announced Friday morning indicate that inflationary pressure is getting worse, pushing bond yields even higher. At time of writing, the twoand ten-year rates had risen close to 3 and 19 percentage points respectively during the week. In Canada, good economic results and anxiety about future deficits put pressure on bond yields, which reached close to % for two years and % for ten years on Friday. 2,625 15, /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /02/01 The U.S. dollar depreciated during the Tuesday and Thursday sessions. The sharp rise in bond yields on Friday was a boon to the greenback, allowing it to end the week stable, or even slightly up, compared with last week. The euro was again worth US$ for a short time, but was back to around US$1.24 at time of writing. The pound did a bit better than the euro during the first half of the week, bolstered by higher expectations of monetary tightening. But the U.K. currency did not maintain its gain, and was trading for just over US$1.41 on Friday. The Canadian dollar was worth more than US$0.815 (close to C$1.225/US$) during the week. Friday s rebound of the greenback brought the exchange rate back under US$ Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points In % /12/ /12/ /01/08 Spread (left) 2018/01/16 United States (right) 2018/01/ /02/01 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/16 Canadian dollar (left) 2018/01/ /02/01 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3

4 A Look Ahead UNITED STATES MONDAY February 5-10:00 January December 55.9 ISM non-manufacturing index (January) In October the ISM non-manufacturing index reached its highest level in 12 years, but has declined since then, dropping 2.5 points in November and another 1.3 in December. It is expected to rise a bit in January, in line with some consumer confidence indexes like the Conference Board s. However, that rise may be limited by the downswing in the greenback and the abnormally cold weather at the beginning of the month. The index could reach WEDNESDAY February 7-15:00 December US$B November Consumer credit (December) November saw the sharpest monthly increase in consumer credit since November 2001 (aside from spikes caused by changes in reporting methods). But that US$27.95B gain should be followed by a much smaller increase in December. That is the message we are getting from weekly data on bank loans. Nevertheless, the % growth in auto sales in December 2017 indicates some measure of support. The monthly change in consumer credit should be close to US$14.0B. TUESDAY February 6 - December $B -0-3 November International merchandise trade (December) Seasonally adjusted and expressed in Canadian dollars, commodity prices rose only % in December. The % increase in energy was offset by a 1.5% drop in non-energy commodities, so the full impact of those changes on export values will turn out to be very limited. That said, there could be growth in several other sectors this month because foreign demand is on the upswing. It is also likely that October s recovery of the auto industry will continue through November. The bottom line is that exports should rise about 1.0% for the month. The positive contribution of exports to the trade balance will, however, be partially offset by an increase in imports due to the strength of domestic demand. Overall, the trade balance should show a slight improvement for December. TUESDAY February 6 - January ann. rate 210, ,000 December 217,000 Housing starts (January) New mortgage restrictions were introduced by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) on January 1st. Combined with higher interest rates, these restrictions could significantly slow the housing market down. Under the circumstances, we predict far fewer housing starts in January, although there is great uncertainty as to the extent. TUESDAY February 6 - January 7,500-10,000 December 78,600 Labour force survey (January) Given the exceptional rise in employment of recent months, January is very likely to be marked by reduced performance, but, even with a slight drop for the month, employment should remain very healthy. Unemployment, which was at 5.7% in December (its lowest point since 1976), could rise to 5.8%. 4

5 OVERSEAS MONDAY February 5-5:00 December m/m -1.0% November 1.5% Euro zone: retail sales (December) Retail sales jumped 1.5% in November, the strongest monthly growth in just over a year. That good performance followed a % shrinkage in October 2017, and a new slump could come in December. The monthly drop of 1.2% in French household consumption and the % drop in German retail sales definitely indicate a downtick in European sales. Among the other indicators to be released in the euro zone this week will be s industrial production on Wednesday and France s on Friday. THURSDAY February 8-7:00 February % % December 14 % United Kingdom: Bank of England meeting (February) The meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) will coincide with the release of the report on inflation, which may indicate greater optimism about the economy and the future progress of prices. It could raise expectations of monetary tightening at subsequent meetings. Recently the Governor of the BoE, Mark Carney, told the U.K. Parliament that the impact of Brexit on investment and the economy was fading, and that his current priority was to curb inflation. In terms of economic indicators, several interesting statistics will be released Friday, including those on industrial production, construction and the trade balance. 5

6 Economic Indicators Week of February 5 to 9, 2018 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY 5 10:00 ISM non-manufacturing index TUESDAY 6 8:50 Trade balance Goods and services (US$B) Speech of the St. Louis Fed President, J. Bullard WEDNESDAY 7 6:00 10:15 15:00 17:20 Speech of the Dallas Fed President, R. Kaplan Speech of the New York Fed President, W. Dudley Speech of the Chicago Fed President, C. Evans Consumer credit (US$B) Speech of the San Francisco Fed President, J. Williams THURSDAY 8 8:00 9:00 21:00 Speech of the Philadelphia Fed President, P. Harker Initial unemployment claims Speech of the Minneapolis Fed President, N. Kashkari Speech of the Kansas City Fed President, E. George , , ,000 FRIDAY 9 10:00 Wholesale inventories final (m/m) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% MONDAY 5 TUESDAY 6 10:00 International trade ($B) PMI-Ivey index WEDNESDAY 7 Building permits (m/m) 2.0% -7.7% THURSDAY 8 8:15 12:45 Housing starts (ann. rate) New housing price index (m/m) Speech of the Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor, C. Wilkins 210, , % 217, % FRIDAY 9 Net change in employment Unemployment rate International transactions in securities ($B) 7, % -10, % , % 19.6 Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6

7 Economic Indicators Week of February 5 to 9, 2018 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS MONDAY 5 Italy Italy France France Euro zone Euro zone Euro zone Australia 3:45 3:45 3:50 3:50 3:55 3:55 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 22:30 PMI composite index PMI services index PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index PMI services index Retail sales Reserve Bank of Australia meeting TUESDAY 6 2:00 Factory orders WEDNESDAY 7 Brazil China France France India Italy New Zealand Japan 2:00 2:45 2:45 4:00 4:00 15:00 18:50 Bank of Brazil meeting Trade balance (US$B) Industrial production Trade balance ( M) Current account ( B) Reserve Bank of India meeting Retail sales Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting Current account ( B) THURSDAY 8 Mexico China China Japan 2:00 2:00 7:00 7:00 14:00 20:30 20:30 23:30 Trade balance ( B) Current account ( B) Bank of England meeting Release of the Bank of England Inflation Report Bank of Mexico meeting Consumer price index Producer price index Tertiary industry activity index 7.25% 1.5% 4.2% 0.1% % FRIDAY 9 France Italy Russia 2:45 4:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 5:30 Industrial production Industrial production Trade balance ( M) Construction Industrial production Bank of Russia meeting % % 1.50% % % 1.50% 3.1% -% 6.75% % 6.8% -4, % -0.5% 1.0% 5% 1, % % -5, % % 5% 1, % % 0.3% 3.5% 0.9% % -2, % -% -0.9% 0.3% 7.50% -0.5% 0.0% -2,804 % % 7.75% % 8.7% 5.6% 1.4% 1.8% 4.9% 2.5% % % 2.5% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). 7

8 UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index ( 2005 = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL * * * ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year ,272 12,028 2, , ,229 2,882 17, Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 ISM non-manufacturing index1 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k)1 * VARIATION (%) LEVEL month -3 months -6 months -1 year * * * ,071 12,839 3, , , * , ,321 1,895 1, , , , ,268 1,266 Building permits (k)1 1,300 1,303 1,225 1,275 New home sales (k) ,570 5,780 5,370 5,510 5,510 Commercial surplus ($M)1-50,497-48,914-44,306-47,883-46,373 2 * 147, ,082 2,114 * Existing home sales (k) 1 Nonfarm employment (k) Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price ( = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8

9 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year Current account balance ($M)1 1,860,679 1,071, , , ,508 17, , ,543 1,847, , , , , , ,779 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) ,208, , Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 1,759, ,929 55, ,657 50, , ,552-2,540-1, ,944-1, ,139 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) 46,206 48, Employment (k)2 18, Unemployment rate (%)1 Average weekly earnings ($) , * * * , Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9

10 UNITED STATES,, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) ,800 25,882 1, ,873 26,617 1, ,743 25,296 1, ,588 23,539 1, ,477 22,093 1, ,297 20,071 1, ,873 26,617 1, ,497 22,306 1, ,293 20,052 1, Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years -6 Treasury bonds 10 years -8 Treasury bonds 30 years S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 15, , , , , , , , , Overseas Euro zone ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) , , , , , , , , , Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) 5 12, , , , , , , , ,510 Japan BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 23, , , , , , , , , CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10