Markets React to the Federal Reserve Chair

Transcription

1 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Markets React to the Federal Reserve Chair # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff U.S. new home sales dip again. ff United States: s real consumption was stronger than anticipated. ff Canada: Real GDP rose 2.0% in the third quarter, although domestic demand met some difficulties. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: Job creation should come in under s 250,000 hires. ff The ISM indexes are expected to decline further in the United States. ff Canada: The trade balance could deteriorate in due to the drop in energy prices. ff The Bank of Canada should opt for the status quo. ff Canada: More jobs should be added to the labour market in November. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Positive week on the stock markets. ff Canadian bond yields have lost some ground. ff The greenback slips on Wednesday in response to Jerome Powell s speech. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...0 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 208, Group. All rights reserved.

2 Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES ff The S&P/Case Shiller index of existing home prices in the 20 largest cities posted a % gain in September, the biggest monthly increase since March. However, the rise is smaller than that which occurred during the same period last year, and thus the annual change in the S&P/Case Shiller index is slowing. It went from 5.5% to 5.%. ff Real GDP was up 2.0% (annualized) in, in line with our expectations. But that increase is covering up bad news: domestic demand has gone down 0.%, ending nine quarters of growth in a row. Does this reflect the impact of previous key interest rate hikes on the Canadian economy? It is too soon to tell, but we will have to watch the situation closely over the coming months. With the weak domestic demand, the risks have just moved up a notch in the country. In the circumstances, the monetary authorities are not likely to increase the overnight rate target when they meet next week. ff After hitting its highest point since September 2000 in, in November the Conference Board s consumer confidence index posted its first monthly decline since June. The index went from 37.9 to The pullback is entirely due to the household expectations component (-4. points); the current situation component went up points. ff After gaining just 0.% in September, real consumption rose % in, the biggest increase since March. Durable goods also went up %. Consumption of non-durable goods rose %, while consumption of services jumped 0.5%. Real disposable income advanced % in. After rising 0.% for four straight months, the monthly change in prices in the consumption expenditure deflator was %. The annual change remained at 2.0%. The core deflator, which excludes food and energy, posted a monthly increase of 0.%, while the annual change went from.9% to %. ff The current account deficit fell $6.3B in, going from -$6.7B to -$B. The bulk of the improvement comes from the trade in goods and services, with revenues up and payments decreasing. Revenues from investments also advanced substantially, helping to lower the deficit more than expected. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff The second estimate of the national accounts for 208 did not alter annualized quarterly real GDP growth, which remains at 3.5%. A smaller contribution from real consumption was offset by stronger contributions from business investment and inventories. ff Sales of new single-family homes plunged 8.9% in. This follows a.0% increase for September (revised from a 5.5% decline). Annualized single-family home sales went from 597,000 units (revised from 553,000) to 544,000, their lowest point since March 206. International trade boosted growth in Francis Généreux, Senior economist Contributions to annualized quarterly change in real GDP In % Net exports Change in inventories and residual error Gross fixed capital formation Consumer spending Total Q4 207 Q 208 Q2 Sources: Statistics Canada and, Economic Studies 2

3 Financial Markets Markets Downgrade Their Monetary Tightening Expectations The U.S. stock market was up this week, mainly supported by Wednesday s big boost following Jerome Powell s speech. The market seems to have viewed his comments as a sign the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less aggressive in its monetary policy. Donald Trump s back-and-forth comments on the possibility of easing trade tensions with China also played with investor sentiment, but the market seems to be fairly positive. The G20 meeting this weekend should shed more light on their future relationship. The S&P 500 index was showing a weekly gain of about 4% on Friday morning. Canada s stock market started the week on a negative note, but it rallied on Wednesday in line with the markets in the United States. Oil prices struggles continue to weigh on Canada s stock market. At the time of writing, the S&P/TSX was up by just under.0% from last week. GRAPH Stock markets Index Index 2,825 5,500 2,800 5,400 2,775 5,300 2,750 5,200 2,725 5,00 2,700 5,000 2,675 4,900 2,650 4,800 2,625 4, /0/8 208/0/26 208//05 208//3 208//2 208//29 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies Bond yields in the United States lost some ground, especially on Wednesday when investors revised their expectations on the Fed s key rates. The 2 year and 0 year yields hovered at around 2.80% and 0%, respectively, on Friday morning. Canadian bond yields suffered a steeper decline. The troubles at GM, falling oil prices and weaknesses highlighted in the details of Canada s real GDP data released on Friday morning have the market questioning the Bank of Canada s more upbeat stance. The U.S. dollar started the week up, but changed course on Wednesday when markets revised their expectations on U.S. monetary policy. The euro had fallen to below US$.3 before the greenback retreated. It then appreciated. The pound fell to below US$.28 in the first half of the week. It didn t fully capitalize on the greenback s subsequent weakness, however, with the Bank of England releasing pessimistic forecasts for Britain s economy if a no-deal Brexit should take place. Declining oil prices and other concerns pushed the loonie down to about US$5 on Wednesday. After rebounding briefly, the loonie resumed its downtrend. The signing of the new free trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA) did not have much of an impact on the Canadian dollar and the markets. Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist GRAPH 2 Bond markets 0-year yield In % points -0 In % /0/ /0/26 Spread (left) 208//05 208//3 United States (right) 208//2 208//29 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ /0/ /0/208 05//208 3//208 Canadian dollar (left) 2//208 29//208 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3

4 A Look Ahead UNITED STATES MONDAY December 3 - November ISM manufacturing index (November) The ISM manufacturing index has been falling for the last two months. Still, it remains relatively high. That said, another downtick is forecast for November, which is what the leading regional manufacturing indicators are signalling. Their levels suggest a pullback that could take the ISM index to around WEDNESDAY December 5 - November ISM non-manufacturing index (November) After reaching a peak unequalled since September 997, the ISM non-manufacturing index dipped in to 6, which is still very high. However, this index is expected to fall again in November. That is what the levels of some other service-industry indexes and the decline in the Conference Board s confidence index are suggesting. Moreover, the latter is expected to begin to show signs of the difficulties the housing sector is experiencing. All things considered, the ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to drop below the 60 mark. THURSDAY December 6 - US$B September Trade balance () The U.S. trade balance recorded its fourth decline in a row in September. As a result, the deficit went from -US$42.6B in May to -US$54.0B. Another rise in the trade deficit is forecast for. The preliminary figures for trade in goods showed a % dip in exports and a slight 0.% increase in imports. The balance of trade in goods and services should go from -US$54.0B to -US$54.6B. FRIDAY December 7 - November 200,000 90, ,000 Job creation according to the establishment survey (November) After September, a month in which job creation was negatively impacted by Hurricane Florence, saw hiring rebound with the creation of 250,000 jobs. However, this rebound effect is expected to be short-lived, and a return to more trend-like growth is anticipated for November. In addition, the number of jobless claims has risen in recent weeks. Nonetheless, household confidence in the current job market situation remains positive. As a result, a net gain of 90,000 jobs is expected in November. The release of the ISM and ADP indexes will help shape the forecast. The unemployment rate could drop to 3.6%. FRIDAY December 7 - December November University of Michigan consumer confidence index (December Preliminary) The University of Michigan index is showing a lower degree of consumer confidence than the Conference Board index. It even retreated in four of the last five months, with a further decline expected for December. The stock market s fall since could have a significant impact on this deterioration. An increase in jobless claims was also noted. The Conference Board s index also declined in November, and it tends to anticipate certain changes in the Michigan index. The weekly Bloomberg index appears to have peaked as well. However, lower gasoline prices in recent weeks are a positive factor. All things considered, the University of Michigan index should drop back to TUESDAY December q/q % Q2 208 % Labour productivity () Production in the business sector rose by % in the third quarter, while the number of hours worked increased by %. This suggests that labour productivity grew by % during the period. This slight gain will nevertheless not be enough to offset the % increase in hourly wages. Unit labour costs should therefore rise by about 0.5% in. 4

5 WEDNESDAY December 5 - December.75%.75% 24.75% Bank of Canada meeting (December) After raising its key interest rates by 25 basis points in, the Bank of Canada is expected to take a break and opt for the status quo during its meeting next week. This will help to maintain a gradual pace in terms of the monetary tightening that began in July 207. Still, it s only a matter of time, as key rates will continue to rise even though the current level of the target for the overnight rate is still below its neutral level. THURSDAY December 6 - $B -.63 September -2 International merchandise trade () When expressed in Canadian dollars and adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, base product prices posted an 8.3% drop in. Moreover, energy prices sank %, while Canadian oil was increasingly selling at a discount due to transportation constraints. It goes without saying that this will significantly affect the value of exports during the month. Another negative factor concerns the automotive sector, as U.S. industrial production data indicate a major slowdown in this industry in. Under these circumstances, the value of exports may drop significantly in, paving the way for a substantial decline in the trade balance. THURSDAY December 6 - November 9,000,200 Labour Force Survey (November) With a 6-month moving average at 6,900 jobs per month, the employment trend is fairly consistent with recent developments in the Canadian economy. This strongly suggests that job creation will closely follow this trend in November to produce around 20,000 jobs. All that remains now is to understand to what extent the exceptionally cold temperatures seen in a number of regions throughout the country will have affected certain seasonal jobs. The unemployment rate could stay put at 5.8%. OVERSEAS WEDNESDAY December 5-5:00 m/m % September 0.0% : Retail sales () Like many Euroland indicators, retail sales are trending down in the euro zone. The annual change in retail sales dropped from around 3% in mid 207 to only % in September, the lowest rate since September 204. After dropping % in July and growing % in August, sales were at a standstill in September. French consumption data (+%) gives the impression that growth will be better, but the % drop in German retail sales is disappointing. In addition, household confidence once again deteriorated in recent months. Among the other indicators, the final November versions of the PMI indexes will be released during the week. A new estimate of the national accounts for the third quarter, this time with details on demand components, will come out on Friday. 5

6 Economic Indicators Week of December 3rd to 7, 208 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY :00 TUESDAY 4 Total vehicle sales (ann. rate) Construction spending (m/m) ISM manufacturing index Speech of the Dallas Fed President, R. Kaplan 7,200,000 % ,350,000 % ,500, % 57.7 %.0% 59. %.2% 59.0 %.2% , % 225, % 234, % Dec. 200, % 34.5 % 97.0 % 90, % 34.5 % 96.0 % 250, % 34.5 % 97.5 % % 0.5% % -% WEDNESDAY 5 0:5 4:00 Nonfarm productivity final (ann. rate) Unit labor costs final (ann. rate) ISM non-manufacturing index Testimony of the Federal Reserve Chairman, J. Powell, before a House committee Release of the Beige Book THURSDAY 6 2:5 Initial unemployment claims Trade balance Goods and services (US$B) Factory orders (m/m) Speech of the Atlanta Fed President, R. Bostic FRIDAY 7 2:00 5:00 Change in nonfarm payrolls Unemployment rate Weekly worked hours Average hourly earnings (m/m) Michigan s consumer sentiment index preliminary Wholesale inventories final (m/m) Speech of a Federal Reserve Governor, L. Brainard Consumer credit (US$B) MONDAY 3 6:00 Government of Quebec s 208 Economic and Fiscal Update TUESDAY 4 Labour productivity (q/q) Unit labour costs (q/q) WEDNESDAY 5 Bank of Canada meeting Dec..75%.75%.75% THURSDAY 6 International trade ($B) PMI-Ivey index FRIDAY 7 Net change in employment Unemployment rate 9, %, % Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 5 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6

7 Economic Indicators Week of December 3rd to 7, 208 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS SUNDAY 2 Japan 9:30 PMI manufacturing index final MONDAY 3 Italy United Kingdom Australia 3:45 3:50 3:55 4:00 4:30 22:30 PMI manufacturing index PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index Reserve Bank of Australia meeting Dec % % TUESDAY 4 United Kingdom Japan Japan 4:30 9:30 9:30 PMI construction index PMI composite index PMI services index WEDNESDAY 5 Italy Italy India United Kingdom United Kingdom 3:45 3:45 3:50 3:50 3:55 3:55 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 PMI composite index PMI services index PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final Reserve Bank of India meeting PMI composite index PMI services index Retail sales Dec % % % % % % THURSDAY 6 2:00 Factory orders -0.5% -3.2% % -% FRIDAY 7 China --2:00 2:45 2:45 2:45 5:00 Trade balance (US$B) Industrial production Trade balance ( M) Current account ( B) Industrial production Real GDP final % 2.0% -6,000 % -.4% %.7% 34.0 % -5, % % -.%.7% SATURDAY 8 China China 20:30 20:30 Consumer price index Producer price index 2.4% 2.7% % 3.3% 5 % Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). 7

8 UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B) Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 00) Labor productivity (2009 = 00) Unit labor cost (2009 = 00) Employment cost index (Dec = 00) Current account balance ($B) VARIATION (%) LEVEL 208 Q2 ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. year ,672 2,957 3, , ,546 3,49 9, Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (200 = 00) ISM manufacturing index ISM non-manufacturing index Cons. confidence Conference Board (985 = 00) Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 00) Production capacity utilization rate (%) New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k) Building permits (k) New home sales (k) Existing home sales (k) Commercial surplus ($M) Nonfarm employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%) Consumer price ( = 00) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 00) Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 00) Export prices (2000 = 00) Import prices (2000 = 00) VARIATION (%) LEVEL - month -3 months -6 months - year * * * ,035 4,435 3,950 5, , * , ,520,967,228, ,220-54,09 49, ,20, ,50-53, ,84, ,340-45, ,276, ,450-46,693, ,265, ,500-44,407 2, * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8

9 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. year Current account balance ($M) * * * * * * * * * * 208 Q2 208 Q2 * 2,059,04,6,382 47,220 39,442 9,268 6, , ,58 2,048, , , , , , , ,537 Production capacity utilization rate (%) Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) 208 Q2 * * 85.5,230, , Business inventory change (2007 $M) Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 00) Labour productivity (2007 = 00) Unit labour cost (2007 = 00) Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k) Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M) Exports ($M) Imports ($M) Employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%) Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 00) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 00) Raw materials price (2002 = 00) Money supply M+ ($M) * * VARIATION (%) LEVEL,94,555 40,763 58, ,056 50,932 - month -3 months -6 months - year , , , ,259 50,375 50, , * * 5.8,004 6, * * * , Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9

10 UNITED STATES,, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) month -3 months -6 months - year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 0 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) ,746 25,3, ,633 24,286, ,723 25,27, ,902 25,965, ,735 24,635, ,642 24,232, ,93 26,828, ,753 25,02, ,58 23,533, Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 0 years Treasury bonds 30 years Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months -5 Treasury bonds 2 years -7 Treasury bonds 5 years -5 Treasury bonds 0 years -5 Treasury bonds 30 years S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 5, , , , , , , , , Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 0 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) , , , , , , , , , Bonds 0 years DAX index (level),297 4,93 4,59 3 2, , ,86 2 3, ,432 7,066 Japan BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 22, , , , , ,89 24, , , CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at :00 a.m. 0