Bank of Canada Still Planning a Key Rate Hike in July

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1 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Bank of Canada Still Planning a Key Rate Hike in July #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: New home sales rebounded in. ff U.S. real GDP growth was slightly downgraded for the first quarter. ff Canada: Real GDP by industry posted subdued growth of 0.1% in. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: Further solid job growth is expected for. ff Canada: After two disappointing months, better job growth is forecast for. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Oil prices surge back and trade fears persist. ff Canadian bond yields resume their upward trend. ff The reassuring statements of Stephen Poloz helped the Canadian dollar to regain a little bit of lost ground. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2018, Group. All rights reserved.

2 Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES ff In, new single-family home sales jumped 6.7%, their strongest monthly growth since November Annualized sales rose from 646,000 to 689,000 units. The gain stems exclusively from a 17.9% increase in the Southern United States. ff Real GDP by industry increased 0.1% in, which is in line with our expectations. It is nonetheless a slowdown after the gains of % in February and 0.3% in March. Twelve of the 20 sectors saw increases in. For goods, surges of 1.6% in utilities and 0.8% in manufacturing offset declines in agriculture, mining and oil extraction, and construction. For services, retailers saw a % drop due to bad weather. Despite the modest gain in real GDP in, the carryover for the second quarter is approximately 1.7% (annualized). ff New durable goods orders fell 0.6% in, which comes on the heels of a % decline in and a % upturn in March. The decrease for the aviation sector was offset by a 2% upswing in military aviation. However, auto-related orders slid 4.2%. Excluding transportation, a 0.3% dip was noted after a strong gain of 1.9% in. ff Real consumption stagnated in following gains of 0.6% in March and 0.3% in. The consensus had called for a % increase. A % dip in services (caused by a 9.0% drop in energy demand) completely wiped out the 0.3% gain in goods. Real disposal income, meanwhile, inched up % in, a tad more than the 0.1% in. The monthly change in prices according to the consumer expenditure deflator was %. In terms of annual change, the total deflator ticked up from 2.0% to % and the core deflator, which excludes food and energy, advanced from 1.8% to 2.0%. ff The industrial product price index rose % in, the strongest monthly growth since November Prices for energy products and oil leaped 4.0%, for a 23.7% upsurge in one year. Prices for other products were up 0.5%. The raw materials price index rose 3.8% in. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff The third estimate of the national accounts for the first quarter of 2018 pegged annualized quarterly growth at 2.0%. This is lower than the % gain shown in the first estimate and the % rise in the second estimate. ff The Conference Board s consumer confidence index retreated from in to in. The 2.4 points shed partly offset the 3.2 points gained between and. The drop in stems more from the consumer expectations component (-4.0 points) than the current situation component (-0.1 point). ff The S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices in the 20 largest cities posted a monthly change of % in. This is the smallest increase since However, some of the slowdown is likely due to poorly reflected seasonal effects. The index s annual change went from 6.7% to 6.6%. Spring started off with modest GDP growth Real GDP by industry In 2007 $B 1,780 Quarterly averages 1,760 Francis Généreux, Senior economist 1,740 1,720 1,700 1,680 1,660 JAN APR. JUL. OCT. JAN APR. JUL. OCT. JAN APR. Sources: Statistics Canada and, Economic Studies 2

3 Financial Markets Negative Week for Stock Markets despite a Slight Rebound in Optimism on Friday The uncertainty surrounding Sino-U.S. trade relations continued to penalize stock markets this week, while contradictory messages circulated as to whether restrictions on Chinese investment in U.S. technology would be added. However, the markets appeared to have regained some of their optimism on Friday morning. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index was still heading toward a 0.6% loss on the week. The technology and finance sectors in the United States were the biggest losers, despite a slight rebound late Thursday. The Canadian stock market plunged during Monday s trading session. It was temporarily helped during the middle of the week by fears of restrained oil supply, which caused the price of the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) barrel to surge to more than US$74, but this gain quickly crumbled under the weight of trade tensions. At the time of writing, the S&P/TSX index had an accumulated loss of nearly 1% compared to last Friday. U.S. bond yields lost gains made earlier this week, as investors perceived the increased risk of an economic slowdown due to the conflict with China. A slight rebound occurred on Friday, supported by the return of an appetite for risk. As a result, 2 year and 10 year yields were once again around 0% and 5% respectively. Canadian bond yields performed better. They were supported by oil prices and a speech by Stephen Poloz, who appeared reassuring and who implied that a key rate hike was still possible in July. At the time of writing, the 2 year yield was close to 1.90% and the 10 year yield was above 2.15%. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,800 16,500 2,775 16,400 16,300 2,750 16,200 2,725 16,100 2,700 16,000 2,675 15, /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/28 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points In % The U.S. dollar rose against most currencies in the first half of the week. The return of a more optimistic feeling on the markets Friday eliminated some of the ground gained. At the time of writing, the euro was trending slightly under US$7. Several confidence indicators were published this week in the euro zone and, taken together, they exceeded expectations somewhat. Britain s currency fared slightly worse than the euro, remaining under US$2. Rising oil prices limited the Canadian dollar s slide during the first half of the week. The loonie rose on Thursday as a result of Stephen Poloz s reassuring comments /05/ /05/25 Spread (left) 2018/06/ /06/12 United States (right) 2018/06/ /06/28 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist US$/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/2018 Canadian dollar (left) 20/06/ /06/2018 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3

4 A Look Ahead UNITED STATES MONDAY July 2-10:00 nd THURSDAY July 5-10:00 FRIDAY July 6 - FRIDAY July US$B , , ,000 ISM manufacturing index () After two declines in March and, the ISM manufacturing index recovered 1.4 points in, reaching No significant swings are expected in. The leading regional manufacturing indexes posted different monthly changes over the course of the month. For example, the Philadelphia index was down 14.5 points while the Dallas index was up 9.7 points. The rest featured more modest changes. Overall, the ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip slightly, ending up at ISM non-manufacturing index () The ISM non-manufacturing index soared 1.8 points in, putting an end to three monthly declines in a row. A further increase is expected for, based on some other indexes in the services industry. However, the decline in the Conference Board confidence index in may dampen this view. We expect a point increase and a result of Trade balance () After plummeting from the end of 2017 through February 2018, the U.S. trade deficit is on the way up again. It reached US$-46.2B in, the lowest it has been since September A further improvement is expected for. The preliminary figures for trade in goods reveal a 2.1% jump for exports, while imports were only up %. The goods and services deficit should go from US$-46.2B to US$-43.6B. Job creation according to the establishment survey () After disappointing results in March and, hiring was up again in with a gain of 223,000 jobs; this is the best performance since February. should see further strong growth. Initial jobless claims were down in compared to, when they were already relatively low. The results of the Conference Board consumer confidence survey show optimism about the job market. The release of the ISM and ADP indexes will help shape the forecast. We expect 225,000 new positions. Unless the labour force rises sharply, the unemployment rate should decrease from 3.8% to 3.7%, its lowest level since December FRIDAY July 6 - FRIDAY July 6 - $B ,000 35,000-7,500 International merchandise trade () Seasonally adjusted and expressed in Canadian dollars, commodity prices rose 0.7%. That will boost export values for commodities. However, U.S. figures suggest that production in the auto industry struggled in. The bottom line is that exports should rise slightly for the month, although imports are likely to increase significantly due to rising domestic demand. As a result, the trade balance could deteriorate slightly in. Labour force survey () After two disappointing months, employment should be on the upswing, more in line with recent economic growth. Employment could bounce back with the creation of some 35,000 positions. The unemployment rate should stay put at 5.8%. 4

5 OVERSEAS TUESDAY July 3rd - 5:00 m/m 0.1% 0.1% : Retail sales () Retail sales in Europe, which are usually quite volatile, have been relatively stable for a few months. However, there have been signs they are running out of steam since the beginning of the year. The annual change in sales has gone from 2.4% in the second half of 2017 to 1.6% at this point in An acceleration that started in could boost the contribution of household spending to real GDP in Q2. However, s 2.1% drop in German s retail sales is still a bad sign, despite an encouraging % gain in France. s unemployment rate will be released on Monday, as will be the final versions of the PMI indexes for. 5

6 Economic Indicators Week of July 2nd to 6, 2018 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY 2 10:00 10:00 Construction spending (m/m) ISM manufacturing index 0.5% % % :00 Total vehicle sales (ann. rate) Factory orders (m/m) 17,000, % 17,050, % 16,810, % , , , , % % , % 34.5 % , % % , % , % , % 6 TUESDAY 3 WEDNESDAY 4 Markets closed (Independence Day) THURSDAY 5 10:00 14:00 Initial unemployment claims ISM non-manufacturing index Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting Trade balance Goods and services (US$B) Change in nonfarm payrolls Unemployment rate Weekly worked hours Average weekly earnings (m/m) FRIDAY 6 MONDAY 2 Markets closed (Canada Day) TUESDAY 3 WEDNESDAY 4 THURSDAY 5 FRIDAY 6 10:00 International trade ($B) Net change in employment Unemployment rate PMI-Ivey index Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6

7 Economic Indicators Week of July 2nd to 6, 2018 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS SUNDAY 1 19:50 20:30 Tankan large manufacturers index PMI manufacturing index final Q MONDAY 2 Italy France Italy United Kingdom 3:45 3:50 3:55 4:00 4:00 4:30 5:00 PMI manufacturing index PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final Unemployment rate PMI manufacturing index Unemployment rate % % % % TUESDAY 3 Australia Sweden United Kingdom 0:30 3:30 4:30 5:00 20:30 20:30 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting Bank of Sweden meeting PMI construction index Retail sales PMI composite index PMI services index July July 1.50% -% 5 0.1% 1.6% 1.50% -% 5 0.1% WEDNESDAY 4 Italy Italy France France United Kingdom United Kingdom 3:45 3:45 3:50 3:50 3:55 3:55 4:30 4:30 4:00 4:00 PMI composite index PMI services index PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index final PMI services index final PMI composite index PMI services index PMI composite index final PMI services index final THURSDAY 5 2:00 3:30 Factory orders PMI construction index % 1.7% -% 53.9 FRIDAY 6 France France Italy 1:00 1:00 2:00 2:45 2:45 4:00 Leading indicator preliminary Coincident indicator preliminary Industrial production Trade balance ( M) Current account ( B) Retail sales % 1.5% -5, % -4, % 1.7% -0.1% 2.0% -4.6% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). 7

8 UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index (Dec = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year ,372 12,061 2, , ,250 2,906 17, Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 ISM non-manufacturing index1 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits (k)1 New home sales (k)1 Existing home sales (k)1 Commercial surplus ($M)1 Nonfarm employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price ( = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year * * * ,131 13,010 3, , , * * , ,755 1,930 1,350 1, ,430-46, , ,286 1, ,450-47, ,290 1, ,540-52, ,303 1, ,720-46,986 1, ,122 1, ,600-46,074 2, * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8

9 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year Current account balance ($M)1 1,877,388 1,077, , , ,573 15, , ,364 1,875, , , , , , ,526 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) ,242, , Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) Employment (k)2 1 Unemployment rate (%) Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 1,772, ,915 56, ,811 49, , ,062-1, ,933-1, , ,107 48,564 50, , * * , * * , * * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9

10 UNITED STATES,, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) ,742 24,497 1, ,755 24,581 1, ,735 24,635 1, ,641 24,103 1, ,674 24,719 1, ,423 21,350 1, ,873 26,617 1, ,627 23,817 1, ,410 21,320 1, Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 16, , , , , , , , , Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) , , , , , , , , , Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) , , ,724 12, , , , , ,787 BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 22, , , , , , , , , CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10