Measuring Northern Growth. Temiskaming Shores Employer Council 25 October 2016, Temiskaming Shores

Transcription

1 Measuring Northern Growth Temiskaming Shores Employer Council 25 October 216, Temiskaming Shores 1

2 Indicators of Growth Communities Demographics Economy volunteerism, housing stock, poverty, capacity human capital, health, education, population (immigration, replacement, engagement) GDP, employment, income, private investment Environment size of green economy, water & air quality, investments in R&D & conservation Indigenous category or lens? all of the above, plus: respect, collaboration, shared decision making Infrastructure age, quantity, quality, impact (build and operate)

3 Consistent Primary Data Collection Northern Surveys Project Consistent data collection tools across the north (municipalities, chambers, other?) Working with LEPCs Employerone local labour demand Vicinity Jobs - local labour demand Magnet local labour supply Working with United Way Benchmarking progress building inclusive and welcoming communities

4 Enhancing Data Usage Baseline setting: Ontario, Northern Ontario, NE/NW, Census Districts, Communities (CSDs) Data education: Labour Market 11 Northbynumbers.ca how to No.communityaccounts.ca how to Usage Assessment - Northern Directions Concordance analysis of community strategic plans Alignment with internal capacity Alignment with external realities

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6 Any suggestions for other measures?

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8 Sample of data from St. John s Community Profile

9 Population Projections Northeast districts - Cumulative population growth 5% Northwest districts - Cumulative population growth 5% Nipissing, 3.25% Parry Sound,.57% Kenora, 3.4% % Manitoulin,.21% % -5% Greater Sudbury,.8% Timiskaming, % -5% Thunder Bay, -2.56% -1% Algoma, -1.15% Cochrane, % -1% -15% -15% -2% Sudbury, % Rainy River, % -25% -2% Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, Ontario Population Projections, (Toronto, 214).

10 Age Cohorts Northeast Ontario - Distribution of population by age Northwest Ontario - Distribution of population by age % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% -4 % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, Ontario Population Projections, (Toronto, 214).

11 Youth Employment Rate Youth Employment Rate (15 to 19 years) Youth Employment Rate (2 to 24 years) (July) (July) Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

12 Youth Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment Rate (15 to 19 years) Youth Unemployment Rate (2 to 24 years) (July) (July) Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

13 Youth Participation Rate Youth Participation Rate (15 to 19 years) Youth Participation Rate (2 to 24 years) (July) (July) Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

14 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / /214 Youth net migration, by district (Northeast) Nipissing Parry Sound Manitoulin Sudbury Greater Sudbury Timiskaming Cochrane Algoma Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, table

15 Do we have enough working age people? To answer this question we need to consider the Demographic Dependency Ratio or DDR: DDR = (Persons aged 14 years or under) + (Persons aged 65 or older) Persons aged between 15 and 64 years This ratio impacts EVERYTHING in our society: Production Consumption Savings rates Investment Even TAX BASE (without which we cannot deliver necessary services like health, education, transportation)

16 To address our declining DDR we need people Two potential ways to target a desired level of net migration 1. Hold the Demographic Dependency Ratio (DDR) steady at today s level 2. Tie regional DDR to projected provincial DDR growth rate (using 215 as reference year) Regardless of which target we choose, we need to increase our annual net migration to meet it.

17 Northeast migration targets Algoma Cochrane Manitoulin Nipissing 2,5 2, 35 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 1,5 1, , 1,5 1, 5-1, Parry Sound Greater Sudbury Sudbury Timiskaming 1, , 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , , Source: Author s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, Ontario Population Projections, (Toronto, 214).

18 Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch.