British Columbia Economic & Housing Update

Transcription

1 British Columbia Economic & Housing Update Robyn Adamache Senior Market Analyst, CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 Housing Market Information Portal The housing data you want, the way you want it 4 Ways to Access Info: Snapshots of Local, Regional, and National data. Compare statistics for multiple locations. Comprehensive tables, map and charts. Current and archived CMHC publications. Housing market intelligence you can count on cmhc.ca/hmiportal

3 Today s Presentation Big Picture Trends in Key Housing Drivers Mortgage rates, employment, population BC Housing Market Overview

4 Economy: 2014 and 2015 Outlook: The Big Picture Mortgage rates to stay low and stable Sources of economic growth to broaden and strengthen Employment growth forecast to increase Housing Market: Resale markets will be balanced Price growth will slow, sales pick up Expect higher dollar volumes this year and next

5 BC Economic Indicators On Track Latest Month Latest Month YTD % change Employment (thousands, SA) August 2, Unemployment Rate (%, SA) August * Average Weekly Wage Rate August $ Retail Sales ($millions) June 5, Non-res Building Permits ($millions) July Res. Building Permits ($millions) July Total Housing Starts (SAAR) August 34, Merchandise Exports ($millions) July 2, *YTD average level Sources: Statistics Canada, CMHC, BC Stats.

6 Mortgage Interest Rates to Remain Relatively Low Conventional mortgage, posted rates (per cent) year fixed rate mortgage 2014f: % 2015f: % 1-year fixed rate mortgage 2014f: % 2015f: % 5 0 Source: Sources: Bank of of Canada; Canada, CMHC forecasts Q3 forecast

7 Modest Growth in BC Economy Per cent change in Real GDP E 2014F 2015F United States Canada British Columbia Sources: Statistics Canada, May 2014 Consensus Forecasts for US and Canada, CMHC Forecast for BC

8 Employment By Region Varies % change January to Aug, 2014 compared to 2013 BC Vancouver Abbotsford-Mission Victoria Kelowna Mainland/Southwest Vancouver Island/Coast Thompson/Okanagan Cariboo Kootenay North Coast/Nechako Northeast -12% -9% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

9 Growth Sectors in the Okanagan UBC Okanagan Kelowna International Airport Kelowna General Hospital Non Residential Construction Agri-Tourism

10 Employment Outlook Annual per cent change F YTD F British Columbia Kelowna 1.5 Sources: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast

11 BC s Population is Growing at 1.2% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000-3,000 Net International Migration Net Interprovincial Migration Source: Source: Statistics Statistics Canada Canada

12 Fewer People Moving to Kelowna from Outside BC Net Migration 4,500 3,500 2,500 1, Interprovincial Intraprovincial International -1, Source: Statistics Canada, BC Stats

13 Millenials & Retirees Will Drive Home Buying Annual Per cent Change in BC Population % 3 2 2% % <1% 15 to to to Source: BC Stats, P.E.O.P.L.E. 2014, CMHC calculations

14 Annual Increase in Households by CMA Households 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 1,640 9,435 1,538 1,703 1,630 8,544 Kelowna CMA Victoria CMA Abbotsford-Mission CMA 10,000 5,000 15,565 17,545 Rest of BC Vancouver CMA Average Source: BC Stats, P.E.O.P.L.E. 2013, CMHC calculations

15 Regional Housing Markets

16 Market Dollar Volume by Board Area % Change YTD 2014 vs YTD 2013 British Columbia 23 Ok - Mainline 36% Greater Vancouver Fraser Valley Chilliwack 22% 25% 26% Victoria Vancouver Island 11% 13% Source: CREA, YTD = Jan - Aug

17 House Prices Move Higher MLS Benchmark Single Detached House Price $1,000,000 $978K $800,000 $600,000 $804K $522K G Vancouver Fraser Valley Victoria $567K $400, $527K $499K Source: Canadian Real Estate Association PROTECTED - CMHC Commercial/Competitive

18 Condo Prices Below Previous Peak MLS Benchmark Condo Apt Price, Lower Mainland $375,000 $350,000 Apr 08 $349K Apr 10 $343K Jun 14 $343K $325,000 $300, Mar 09 $300K Source: Canadian Real Estate Association PROTECTED - CMHC Commercial/Competitive

19 2014 and 2015 Outlook Continued gradual improvement in economy Mortgage rates stay low Population and employment growth support stable housing market

20 Thank You!! Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level For More Information Contact: Robyn Adamache Tel: Click to view, download or subscribe