CMHC - Kingston Housing Industry Roundtable

Transcription

1 CMHC - Kingston Housing Industry Roundtable March 28, 2012 Abdul K. Kargbo, M.A. (Econ) Market Analyst, CMHC 1

2 Key points Kingston s economy should strengthen into 2013 Kingston s average home price to remain stable New home inventory remains at manageable level Vacancy rates to stay below historical average Low mortgage rates should sustain housing activity 2

3 Outline 1. Kingston Economy 2. Existing Home Market 3. New home Market 4. Rental Market 5. Recap 3

4 1. Kingston economy 2011 KINGSTON ONTARIO Employment growth 3.1% 1.8% Unemployment rate 6.6% 7.8% Average Weekly Earnings $842 $ (f) KINGSTON ONTARIO Employment growth 0.6% 1.1% Unemployment rate 6.4% 7.4% Average Weekly Earnings $866 - Source: Statistics Canada, forecast by CMHC 4

5 Kingston s employment-to-population ratio indicates economic improvements 63% 62% 61% Jan-10 (62.6%) Feb-12 (62.1%) 60% 59% 58% 57% Nov-10 (57.6%) 56% 55% Source: Statistics Canada 5

6 Kingston s employment growth by homebuyer profile Kingston s employment by age group (000) % % 0% 20-4% Full-Time Part-Time Source: Statistics Canada 6

7 Kingston s employment share in 2011 Manufacturing, 5.7% Other Primary, 0.8% Construction, 5.7% Professional Services, 4.7% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing, 6.0% Educational Services, 13.5% Retail Trade, 11.4% Transportation, 4.2% Wholesale, 1.8% Health Care and Social Assistance, 15.9% Information, 4.1% Accommodation and Food Services, 8.3% Public Administration, 9.7% Other Services, 8.4% Commercial Services: 48.7% Non-Commercial Services: 39.1% Goods-Producing Sector: 12.2% Source: Statistics Canada 7

8 2. Resale home market Kingston s annual existing home sales (unit) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Kingston and Area Real Estate Association (KAREA), CMHC forecast 8

9 Kingston MLS average home price by dwelling types Kingston s annual existing home average price ($000) $300 4% % $250 $200 3% 5% 15% $150 $100 $50 $0 Source: Kingston and Area Real Estate Association (KAREA) 9

10 Kingston MLS average home price to remain stable Kingston s annual existing home average price $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Source: Kingston and Area Real Estate Association (KAREA), CMHC forecast 10

11 Kingston s housing market temperature suggests stability Kingston s sales-to-new-listings ratio (seasonally adjusted) 65% 60% Sellers Market 55% 50% 45% 40% Balanced Market 35% 30% Buyers Market 25% 20% Source: Kingston and Area Real Estate Association (KAREA), CMHC forecast 11

12 3. New home market Kingston s new home inventory (i.e. Completed and unabsorbed) Total New Home Inventory 10-year average Source: CMHC 12

13 Kingston s housing starts to moderate in 2012 Kingston s housing starts (units) Single-detached starts Multiple-family starts Note: Multiple-family starts include (semi-detached, row/townhouse, apartment) Source: CMHC 13

14 4. Rental market update Kingston s rental apartment vacancy rate by year of construction 1.9 % % 0.9% 1.2 % 1.2% 0.8 % 1.1% 0.9% 1.1 % 1.0% 0.2 % 0.3 % Pre Overall Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey 14

15 5. Recap Kingston s employment growth remains positive. Improving labour market will continue to support consumer confidence and the housing market. Mortgage rates will remain relatively low through next year. Better balance between housing demand and supply will moderate price growth. 15

16 Kingston Housing Industry Roundtable Questions? Thank You! Abdul K. Kargbo Market Analyst Phone: (613) Fax: (613) website: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Mission statement: committed to housing quality, affordability and choice for Canadians 16