ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts
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1 Learning In Real Time: Experts Share their Real Estate Forecasts for 17, 18, and 19 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts uli.org/economicforecast October 2017 ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate
2 Three year forecast ( 17 19) for 27 economic and real estate indicators. A consensus forecast based on the median of the forecasts from 48 economists/analysts at 34 leading real estate organizations. Respondents represent major real estate investment, advisory, and research firms and organizations. Survey undertaken from September 5 September 29, A semi annual survey; next release planned for April 2018.
3 Real GDP Growth 3 3.3% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 2.9% 1.5% 20-Year Avg. (2.35%) 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% -0.3% -2.8% Sources: , Bureau of Economic Analysis; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.3%, 2.6%, and 2.0%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
4 Employment Growth 4 20-Year Avg. (1.21) Millions of Jobs Sources: , Bureau of Labor Statistics; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.20, 1.90, and 1.55, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
5 Unemployment Rate 5 20-Year Avg. (6.0%) 7.3% 9.9% 9.3% 8.5% 7.9% 6.7% 5.6% 4.9% 4.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% Sources: , (seasonally adjusted, as of December), Bureau of Labor Statistics; (YE), ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 4.6%, 4.5%, and 4.6%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
6 Consumer Price Index Inflation Rate 6 4.1% 20-Year Avg. (2.1%) 3.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% Sources: , (12 month change, as of December), Bureau of Labor Statistics; (YE), ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.5%, 2.5%, and 2.5%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
7 Ten Year Treasury Rate 7 4.4% 4.7% 20-Year Avg. (3.78%) 4.0% 3.9% 3.3% 2.3% 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 1.9% 1.8% Sources: (YE), U.S. Federal Reserve; (YE), ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.8%, 3.2%, and 3.2% respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
8 NCREIF Capitalization Rate 8 6.9% 20-Year Avg. (6.73%) 6.1% 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 6.3% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% Sources: , (Q4), National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); (YE), ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 5.1%, 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
9 Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume 9 16-Year Avg. ($294) Billions of Dollars $432 $572 $434 $547 $496 $450 $427 $414 $371 $364 $299 $178 $150 $235 $70 Sources: , Real Capital Analytics; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected $450, $450, and $430 respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
10 Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) Issuance Year Avg. ($78) Billions of Dollars $167 $198 $229 $86 $94 $101 $76 $80 $80 $80 $33 $48 $12 $3 $12 Sources: , Commercial Mortgage Alert; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected $74 billion, $80 billion, and $85 billion, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
11 14.7% 16.3% 11.1% ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast RCA Commercial Property Price Index (annual change) % 15-Year Avg. (5.6%) 6.2% 8.7% 8.3% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.0% -18.4% -25.5% Sources: , Moody s and Real Capital Analytics; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 5.0%, 3.5%, and 3.0%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
12 Industrial/Warehouse Availability Rates Year Avg. (10.2%) 11.6% 14.0% 13.9% 13.0% 12.2% 9.8% 9.6% 9.7% 10.7% 9.6% 8.7% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 7.9% Sources: (Q4), CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 8.0%, 8.0%, and 8.4%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
13 Industrial/Warehouse Rental Rate Change Year Avg. (1.6%) 6.8% 2.8% 4.9% 3.3% 0.5% 1.0% 3.6% 4.8% 5.3% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% -0.6% -6.7% -10.4% Sources: , CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 4.6%, 3.8%, and 3.0%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
14 NCREIF Industrial Total Annual Returns % 20-Year Avg. (10.5%) 17.0% 14.9% 9.4% 14.6% 10.7% 12.3% 13.4% 14.9% 12.3% 10.6% 8.4% 7.0% -5.8% -17.9% Sources: , National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); , ULI. Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 9.8%, 8.9%, and 7.9% respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
15 Retail Availability Rates Year Avg. (9.8%) 12.6% 12.9% 13.0% 12.6% 11.9% 10.8% 11.3% 11.1% 10.1% 10.1% 10.2% 10.3% 7.4% 8.1% 9.0% Sources: (Q4), CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 10.1%, 10.0%, and 10.1% respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
16 Retail Rental Rate Change Year Avg. (1.3%) 4.2% 3.0% 3.4% 0.9% 1.3% 2.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% -0.2% -0.2% -2.1% -2.0% -4.8% -5.1% Sources: , CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.5%, 2.0%, and 1.5%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
17 NCREIF Retail Total Annual Returns % 20-Year Avg. (11.0%) 13.4% 13.5% 12.6% 13.8% 15.3% 11.6% 12.9% 13.1% 9.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% -4.1% -10.9% Sources: , National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 7.0%, 6.2%, and 6.0%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and
18 Office Vacancy Rates Year Avg. (13.5%) 16.5% 16.4% 16.0% 15.4% 14.9% 13.6% 12.5% 12.5% 14.1% 13.9% 13.1% 12.9%13.0% 13.1% 13.4% Sources: (Q4), CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 12.6%, 12.5%, and 12.6%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
19 Office Rental Rate Change Year Avg. (2.3%) 8.6% 10.0% 5.9% 3.8% 3.1% 3.8% 2.5% 4.5% 4.0% 1.4% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% -4.6% -12.4% Sources: , CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.5%, 2.3% and 2.0%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
20 NCREIF Office Total Annual Returns % 19.2% 20.5% 20-Year Avg. (9.9%) 11.7% 13.8% 9.5% 9.9% 11.5% 12.5% 6.2% 5.9% 5.7% 5.0% -7.3% -19.1% Sources: , National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 6.0%, 6.1%, and 5.6% respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
21 Apartment Vacancy Rates % 7.1% 20-Year Avg. (5.4%) 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% Sources: (Q4), CBRE; (Q4), ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 5.2%, 5.3%, and 5.4%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
22 Apartment Rental Rate Change Year Avg. (2.6%) 4.8% 4.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% -1.3% 0.3% -6.5% Sources: , CBRE; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 2.0%, 2.0% and 2.0% respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
23 NCREIF Apartment Total Annual Returns % 14.6% 11.4% 18.2% 15.5% 11.2% 10.4% 10.3% 12.0% 20-Year Avg. (10.0%) 7.3% 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% -7.3% -17.5% Sources: , National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 6.0%, 6.0%, and 5.5%, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
24 Single Family Housing Starts Year Avg. (1,008,635) 1,715,800 1,465,400 1,046, , , , , ,500855, , , , ,600647, ,600 Sources: , (Structures w/ 1 Unit), U.S. Census; , ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in April, 2017) projected 845,000, 892,500 and 920,000, respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
25 Learning In Real Time: Experts Share their Real Estate Forecasts for 17, 18, and 19 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts uli.org/economicforecast October 2017 ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate
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