Multifamily Market Dynamics
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1 February 10, TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT Multifamily Market Dynamics Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research, Mortgage Bankers Association
2 Multifamily Rental in the Broader Housing Market MBA s Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book MBA Analysis of American Housing Survey MBA Analysis of Census Population Projections MBA Analysis of Housing Vacancy Survey Reports from MBA s Research Institute for Housing America MBA Analysis of Housing Starts Data
3 Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Structure Size, 2009 Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey. 3
4 Composition of renter households, by building size, 2009 Thousands of households Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey. 4
5 Composition of Renter Households, by Building Size, 2009 Thousands of households Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey. 5
6 Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009 Thousands of households Source: Census Bureau, American Housing Survey. 6
7 Changes in Number of Owner- & Renteroccupied Households, & Homeownership Rate Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau. 7
8 Projected population change, by age, & Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau 8
9 Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, by Age of Householder, 2000 to 2010 Less than 35 years old Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 54 Age 55 to 64 Age 65 and older Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau. 9
10 Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners and Renters Since 1992 Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home- Buying, Research Institute for Housing America (2011). 10
11 Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since 1992 Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying, Research Institute for Housing America (2011). 11
12 Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates Source: Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?, Stuart A. Gabriel and Stuart S. Rosenthal, Research Institute for Housing America (2011). 12
13 Percent of Tenants Probably or Definitely Intend to Renew Source: Kingsley Associates. 13
14 Multifamily Fundamentals MBA s Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book MBA Analysis of REIS Data MBA Analysis of NCREIF NOI Data MBA Analysis of Equity Residential Quarterly Earnings MBA Analysis of Real Capital Analytics Data MBA Analysis of Moody s, NCREIF and Green Street Property Price Data
15 Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & Occupancy Rates, by Property Type by Quarter Source: Reis, Inc. 15
16 Year-over-Year Percent Change in Net Operating Income Among NCREIF Properties Source: NCREIF. 16
17 Thousands of Households, by Tenure and Household Income, 2009 Q to Q Q to Q Source: Equity Residential. 17
18 Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume, Properties & Portfolios $5 million & Greater Source: Real Capital Analytics. 18
19 Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates, Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board. 19
20 Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s/real and NCREIF. 20
21 Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices & the Dow Jones Industrial Average (2007Q3 = 100) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s/real and NCREIF and Dow Jones. 21
22 Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily Property Prices (2007Q3 = 100) & Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($thousands) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody s/real and NCREIF. 22
23 Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate, Thousands of Units Source: Census Bureau. 23
24 Multifamily Finance MBA s Annual Report on Multifamily Lending MBA s Annual Origination Summation MBA s Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index MBA s Quarterly Analysis of Mortgage Debt Outstanding MBA s Annual Report on Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Maturity Volumes MBA s Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates
25 Yields on Treasury Nominal Securities at Constant Maturity, Monthly Averages of Daily Data (percent) Source: Federal Reserve Board. 25
26 Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Housing. 26
27 Mortgage Bankers Multifamily & Commercial/Multifamily Origination Indexes (index value, 2001 avg quarter = 100, right) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index. 27
28 Index of Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, by Investor Group (2001 average quarter = 100) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index. 28
29 Originations for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac & Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending ($Millions) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Lending, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press releases. 29
30 Multifamily Lending in 2010, by Lender Average Loan Size Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending. 30
31 Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds. 31
32 Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($millions) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding. 32
33 Multifamily and Other Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Among Major Investor Bank & Thrift (90+ day delinquency or nonaccrual) CMBS (30+ day delinquency including REO) Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including in process of foreclosure) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau. 33
34 Non-Bank UPB of Outstanding Multifamily Mortgages, by Year of Maturity, as of Dec. 31, 2010 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes. 34
35 Contact Information & MBA Resources Jamie Woodwell Vice President Commercial Real Estate Research Mortgage Bankers Association 1717 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC MBA homepage: MBA research page: Research Institute for Housing America: MBA Newslink:
36 MBA s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Research Reports
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