Crandall s Business Index

Transcription

1 Crandall s Business Index Established 1923 Volume 87, No. 42 October 15, 2010 Select a page title The Week s Most Requested Illustration Asset Allocation - Risk & Reward: Five Year Returns The Weekly Market Review The Recent Releases Business Index pg. 1 Business Index pg. 2 Notice: ing of this copyright protected publication, (in whole or in part) including the illustrations contained herein, is strictly prohibited. If this publication was not received directly from Crandall, Pierce & Company, discontinue its use immediately, permanently delete this file and all copies from storage and destroy any printouts. Unauthorized possession or use of Crandall, Pierce & Company s copyright protected products is prohibited. If there are any questions, please call Thank you for your cooperation. Copyright 2010 by Crandall, Pierce & Company All rights reserved West Petronella Drive Libertyville, Illinois Internet:

2 -5.7% Worst Return Average Return ASSET ALLOCATION - RISK & REWARD Five Year Returns anuary Largest Return 27. Portfolio Mix: 9 Stocks No Bonds 1 Cash Percent of Period Ending Worst Average Average Average Largest Percent Percent Returns Greater 9/10 Return Loss Return Gain Return Negative Positive Than Inflation % % Stocks 1 Bonds 1 Cash Stocks 2 Bonds 1 Cash 1.9% % % Stocks 3 Bonds 1 Cash * % 5 Stocks 4 Bonds 1 Cash 2.9% % 20.9% * Stocks 5 Bonds 1 Cash Stocks 6 Bonds 1 Cash Stocks 7 Bonds 1 Cash % 6.7% Stocks 8 Bonds 1 Cash No Stocks 9 Bonds 1 Cash * *Less Than Than The Consumer Price Index for is preliminary. Data: Rolling 5 year annualized returns using monthly data (669 Observations) Stocks: Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index Bonds: Intermediate Treasury Bonds Cash: 90-Day Treasury Bills Inflation: Consumer Price Index Sources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Ryan Labs, Inc.; Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc.; Barclays Capital; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Copyright 2010 Crandall, Pierce & Company All rights reserved. The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission % % % S-5 Copyright 2010 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY All rights reserved West Petronella Drive Libertyville, Illinois Internet: -CCXCV-

3 Market Review Week Ending - Friday October 15, 2010 Standard & Poor's 500 Close YTD % Sources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Crandall, Pierce & Company Dow ones Industrials Close YTD 6.09% % 9.9% % S&P Mid-Cap % -1.3 Close YTD NYSE - Composite Close YTD 4.67% % - -1 Sources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Crandall, Pierce & Company Russell 2000 Close YTD Sources: Russell Investment Group; Crandall, Pierce & Company Frankfurt (Xetra DAX) Close YTD 8.9 7% % 3.19% NASDAQ - Composite Close YTD % % % Sources: NASDAQ; Crandall, Pierce & Company Tokyo (Nikkei 225) Close YTD % % Year Maximum Median Minimum U.S. Government Yield Curves Latest Percentile % Mo. 6 Mo. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 5 Yr. 7 Yr. 10 Yr. 30 Yr. Maturities FROM: 3 Mo. 6 Mo. 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year 30 Year U.S. Government Yields Spreads By Maturity TO: 3 Mo. 6 Mo. 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Yr. 30 Yr % 3 Copyright 2010 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY All rights reserved Libertyville, Illinois Internet: % % 0.59% % % Basis Points The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at % %

4 Recent Releases: Crandall's Business Index - October 15, 2010 Released 10/15/ All Items Consumer Price Index 1. Index YTD % % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Crandall, Pierce & Company Millions of Dollars August 2010 U.S. Trade Deficit Millions Released 10/14/10 Goods And Services 2010 YTD % 8.8 Sources: Bureau of the Census; Crandall, Pierce & Company Released 10/15/10 Less Food & Energy Consumer Price Index 0. Index YTD % 0.1 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Crandall, Pierce & Company Dollars Per Troy Ounce Gold Prices Dollars 2010 YTD 16.17% Year 3 Years 5 Years % Retail Sales Released 10/15/10 Total Billions YTD % -0. Sources: Bureau of the Census; Crandall, Pierce & Company Dollars Per Barrel '05 '06 '07 '08 Oil Prices West Texas Intermediate Crude '09 '10 Dollars 2010 YTD 0.77% Year 3 Years 5 Years % August 2010 Inventories Billions Released 10/15/10 Retail Stores 2010 YTD 5.07% % Sources: Bureau of the Census; Crandall, Pierce & Company - - Currency Units Per U.S. Dollar Euro Euro Per U.S. Dollar Index YTD 5.37% Year 3 Years 5 Years 7.57% Finished Goods Index 1.2 Released 10/14/10 Producer Price Index 2010 YTD 2.39% % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Crandall, Pierce & Company Currency Units Per U.S. Dollar apan Yen Per U.S. Dollar Index YTD Year 3 Years 5 Years % Yields & Rates - Net change for indicated period - Periods over 1 year are annualized Qtr. to Qtr. % Change - All periods are annualized Line chart table and year to date (YTD) - contain changes for indicated periods - maximum, median, minimum Latest Percentile - percentile within range The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This illustration is subject to the terms & conditions at Recent Releases are updated daily - To download, visit our website at Copyright 2010 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY All rights reserved Libertyville, Illinois Internet:

5 CRANDALL'S BUSINESS INDEX Established 1923 RESEARCH REPORT - Volume 87, No. 42 October 15, 2010 U.S. Government Yields - EOM Last Year One Three Six Nine One Three Five Observation Value to Date Month Months Months Months Year Years Years Data 3 Month Government Yields September % Net Chg. 6 Month Government Yields September % Net Chg. 1 Year Government Yields September % Net Chg. 2 Year Government Yields September % Net Chg. 3 Year Government Yields September % -3.5 Net Chg. 5 Year Government Yields September % Net Chg. 7 Year Government Yields September % % -2.3 Net Chg. 10 Year Government Yields September Net Chg. 20 Year Government Yields September % Net Chg. Selected Yields & Commodities - EOM Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Federal Funds Rate - 5 Day Moving Average September % % Net Chg. Prime Rate September Net Chg. Certificates of Deposit - 3 Month September % Net Chg. Municipal Bond Yields September % -0.1 Net Chg. Eurodollar Deposit - 3 Month September % Net Chg. LIBOR - 3 Month September % Net Chg. Aaa Corporate Bond Yields September % % Net Chg. Baa Corporate Bond Yields September % % % Net Chg. Gold Prices - troy ounce September % 4.89% % % Chg. Oil Prices - West Texas Int. Crude September % 11.19% % % 20.7% % Chg. Stock Market Indices - EOM Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Dow ones Industrial Average September 10 10, % % 0.4 % Chg. Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index September 10 1, % % Chg. Russell Stock Index September % 10.99% % -1.07% % Chg. Dow ones Transportation - Stock Index September 10 4, % % Chg. Dow ones Utilities - Stock Index September % % Chg. S&P Mid-Capitalization Stock Index September % % % Chg. Russell Stock Index September % % -5.67% 0.2 % Chg. NASDAQ Composite - Stock Index September 10 2, % 1.9 % Chg. Frankfurt (Xetra DAX) - Stock Index September 10 6, % 4.3 % Chg. Tokyo (Nikkei 225) - Stock Index September 10 9, % Chg. Employment Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Initial Claims - Unemployment Insurance September % % Chg. Employment - Total Nonfarm Payrolls September , % -0.07% -0.17% 0.27% 0.47% % Chg. Employment - Service-Providing September , % % 0.0 % Chg. Employment - Construction September 10 5, % % Chg. Employment - Government September 10 22, % % 0.3 % Chg. Unemployment Rate September Net Chg. Employment - Goods-Producing September 10 18, % Chg. Employment - Manufacturing September 10 11, % Chg. Employment - Durable Goods September 10 7, % % % Chg. Employment - Nondurable Goods September 10 4, % % % % Chg. Inflation Indices Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Consumer Price Index - All Items September % % 1.9 % Chg. Consumer Price Index - Housing September % % % % Chg. Consumer Price Index - Food September % % % Chg. Consumer Price Index - Transportation September % % % Chg. Consumer Price Index - Medical Care September % % Chg. Consumer Price Index - Less Food & Energy September % % 1.97% % Chg. Consumer Price Index - Energy September % % Chg. Producer Price Index - Finished Goods September % % % 2.5 % Chg. Producer Price Index - Intermediate Materials September % % % Chg. Producer Price Index - Crude Materials September % % Chg. Italic dates - indicate data released this week. EOM - End of Month Net Change (Net Chg.) - Change for indicated period. Percent Change (% Chg.) - Periods over one year are annualized (except Oil/Gold Prices). Percent Change Quarterly (% Chg.Q) - All periods are annualized. Updated daily, this publication, the accompanying charts (Mainstay Exhibits), and historical data are available on the internet at The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy, and on the condition of errors or omissions shall not give rise to any right or claim. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. Copyright 2010 by Crandall, Pierce & Company All rights reserved West Petronella Drive #103 Libertyville, IL Internet:

6 Page 2: Crandall's Business Index - 10/15/10 Productivity, Costs & Money Supply Last Year One Three Six Nine One Three Five Observation Value to Date Month Months Months Months Year Years Years Data Output Per Hour - Nonfarm 2nd Quarter % Quarterly % % 2.69% 2.0 % Chg. Price to Unit Labor Cost - Nonfarm 2nd Quarter Quarterly % Chg. Unit Labor Cost - Nonfarm 2nd Quarter Quarterly 0.29% % % % Chg. Hourly Compensation - Nonfarm 2nd Quarter Quarterly -0.17% % % Chg. Real Hourly Compensation - Nonfarm 2nd Quarter Quarterly % % Chg. Money Supply (M1) September 10 1, % 5.09% % Chg. Money Supply (M2) September 10 8, % % Chg. Non-M1 Components of M2 September 10 6, % % Chg. Money Supply (Debt) 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % Chg. Real Money Supply (M2) September 10 3, % % % Chg. Production & Capacity Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Industrial Production - Total August % % Chg. Industrial Production - Manufacturing August % % -0.7 % Chg. Industrial Production - Durable Goods August % % % Chg. Industrial Production - Nondurable Goods August % % -1.3 % Chg. Purchasing Managers' Index September Net Chg. Capacity Utilization - Total August % % -5.7 Net Chg. Capacity Utilization - Manufacturing August Net Chg. Capacity Utilization - Durable Goods August % Net Chg. Capacity Utilization - Nondurable Goods August Net Chg. Capacity Utilization - Utilities August Net Chg. Consumer Spending & Construction Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Consumer Installment Credit - Total S.A. August 10 2, % 1.27% % Chg. Consumer Installment Credit - Revolving S.A. August % Chg. Consumer Installment Credit - Nonrevolving S.A. August 10 1, % % Chg. Consumer Confidence Index September % % Chg. New Housing Units Started August % % Chg. New-Home Sales August % % % Chg. Existing-Home Sales August % Chg. New Construction - Total August % -5.77% % Chg. New Construction - Residential August % Chg. New Construction - Nonresidential August % 0.17% % Chg. Sales, Orders & Inventories Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Retail Store - Sales September % % % Chg. Retail Sales - Automobile & Light Truck September % % % Chg. Retail Store - Inventories August % % % % Chg. Merchant Wholesalers - Total Sales August % % % Chg. Merchant Wholesalers - Total Inventories August % % Chg. Manufacturers' - Shipments August % 3.57% % Chg. Manufacturers' - New Orders August % Chg. Manufacturers' New Orders - Durable August % 1.87% % -6.87% -1.0 % Chg. Manufacturers' - Inventories August % Chg. Manufacturers' - Unfilled Orders August % 0.27% % Chg. The Economy & Trade Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Real Gross Domestic Product 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % Chg.Q Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % Chg.Q Real P.C.E. - Durable Goods 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % % Chg.Q Real P.C.E. - Nondurable Goods 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % % 1.0 % Chg.Q Real P.C.E. - Services 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % 1.1 % Chg.Q Real Gross Private Domestic Investment 2nd Quarter , Quarterly 23.97% % Chg.Q The Leading Indicators August % 0.27% % % Chg. Real Exports 2nd Quarter , % Quarterly % % 4.8 % Chg.Q Real Imports 2nd Quarter , Quarterly % % Chg.Q U.S. Trade Deficit August 10 46, % % % Chg. Corporate Profits & Personal Income Last Obs. Value YTD 1 Mo. 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Data Corporate Profits - Before Tax 2nd Quarter , % Quarterly % % 0.09% 2.3 % Chg.Q Corporate Profits - After Tax 2nd Quarter , Quarterly 3.77% % 2.9 % Chg.Q Personal Dividend Income 2nd Quarter Quarterly 3.87% % Chg.Q Undistributed Profits 2nd Quarter Quarterly % -0.09% % Chg.Q After Tax Profits with IVA & CCA adj. 2nd Quarter , % Quarterly % % 3.1 % Chg.Q Real Disposable Personal Income August 10 10, % 1.77% % 1.9 % Chg. Personal Income August 10 12, % % Chg. Personal Current Taxes August 10 1, % % -1.0 % Chg. Personal Outlays August 10 10, % % % Chg. Personal Savings Rate August Net Chg. Sources: Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow ones & Company, Federal Reserve Board, Russell Investment Group, NASDAQ, National Association of Realtors, Oil & Gas ournal, Institute for Supply Management, Standard & Poor's Corporation, The Conference Board, U.S. Department of Commerce The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy, and on the condition of errors or omissions shall not give rise to any right or claim. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. Copyright 2010 by Crandall, Pierce & Company All rights reserved West Petronella Drive #103 Libertyville, IL Internet: