National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, :00 AM EST

Transcription

1 National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call December 19, :00 AM EST

2 NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: Conference code: Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required) Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites: NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - NCR HUG LinkedIn page - Region-HAZUS-User ?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr 2

3 Agenda Welcome + Announcements Statewide Geospatial Coordination Progress Report Gene Longenecker HAZUS Presentation Coastal Flood Atlas Glenn Locke HAZUS How to Presentation Total Exposure in Floodplain (TEIF) 2.0 Update to Initial model Reminder - HAZUS Data & Training Collaboration Request for Volunteers Next NCR HUG Call Adjourn 3

4 Announcements Upcoming HAZUS Courses at EMI The Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available: E170 HAZUS-MH for Hurricane: Jan E296 Application of HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment: Jan E179 Application of HAZUS-MH for Disaster Operations: Jan E317 Comprehensive Data Management for HAZUS-MH: Feb E176 HAZUS for Floodplain Managers: Mar E190 ArcGIS for Emergency Managers: March E313 Basic HAZUS-MH: Mar 31 - Apr & Aug 4-7, 2014 E317 Comprehensive Data Management for HAZUS: Aug To apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit: To enroll, download the Admission Application or contact Philip Moore at (301) For further information on registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb 4

5 Announcements GIS Services Upgraded at the Map Service Center Series of improvements on the Map Service Center (MSC) These upgrades include: National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data is now searchable through Map Search NFHL databases are downloadable from MSC Product Catalog Effective DFIRM Databases have been replaced by the NFHL Databases, which are available at no charge New NFHL Status Page for the latest updates, announcements, and links to data County/Community NFHL Databases are refreshed for updates on a daily basis, ensuring that the public now has free, steady access to the most up-to-date flood hazard data. Updated descriptions and documentation are also now available and will serve as a resource to help users get the most out of the NFHL dataset. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact the FEMA Map Information exchange (FMIX) at FEMA-MAP 5

6 Statewide Geospatial Coordination Monthly Progress Report 5 out of 6 Initial State / District Calls Completed: D.C., DE, MD, PA, & WV Included the SHMO, NFIP coordinator, State GIS Officers, and University professors Conduct statewide geospatial data assessments Identify Statewide/District data collection initiatives Identify barriers to data accessibility Centralized Storage Website(S) with links to datasets, metadata and contact Utilizing the geospatial data survey prepared by Tom Mueller - CALU - Available until December 20th Provided to the County GIS departments and many of the PA EMAs and the Keystone EMA LinkedIn Page. Each State/District will update the survey to reflect their specific needs, characteristics and interests The results will be utilized to assess Statewide geospatial data availability, and applicability to enhanced risk assessments Task #1: Send out updated surveys to County/District EMA/GIS analysts within next 1-2 mo. Topics for next call End of January 2014 Future Trainings in Region III State/District focus Tools and workflows streamline input of multi-jurisdictional data 6

7 Coastal Flood Loss Atlas Risk Analysis Team, MT-Risk Analysis Branch, FEMA Region IV H. E. Longenecker-Physical Scientist/RA Team Lead S. Moses Wilkins- Risk Analyst/GIS Specialist Niclaos Almonor- Risk Analyst/GIS Specialist Casey Zuzak- Risk Analyst/GIS Specialist

8 CFLA Concept Create a dictionary of possible coastal flood conditions and losses to support pre- and post- hurricane landfall strategies Unite Hazus loss analyses and FEMA Hurricane Program SLOSH Storm Surge Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Studies Risk & Vulnerability Data & Analyses Improve Hazus Coastal Flood Loss Model quality and capability Assess potential program, public, and/or individual vulnerabilities, risks, and losses (Critical Facilities and Infrastructure, NFIP, IA/PA, RSDE, Repetitive Losses, etc.)

9 CFLA Hurricane Surges Piggyback on the scientific storm surge modeling expertise of the National Hurricane Center for best hazard data SLOSH (Sea Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) Basin updates paid for by FEMA Hurricane Program Accurate, readily available, and independently validated Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) provided by NHC approximately 36 hours prior to expected hurricane landfall SLOSH Maximum of Maximums(MOMs) values for depth grid generation and analysis.* Coverage for all U.S. coastlines vulnerable to hurricane surges MOMs provide worst-case high water values at particular locations, and are used for hurricane evacuation planning (HES) MOMs bookend MEOWs: All landfalling hurricanes will have surge values between one category lower and one category higher *

10 CFLA Versioning CFLA v1.0 HAZUS-MH MR2 for Region IV, 2007 CFLA v2.0 HAZUS-MH MR3 for Region IV, SLOSH 2009 CFLA v2.1 HAZUS-MH MR4 patch 1 for Regions IV and VI, SLOSH 2010 CFLA v3.0 - Current Version HAZUS-MH MR 4 patch 2 for Regions I, II, III, IV, and VI, SLOSH 2010 CFLA v4.0 Working Projected Completion Spring 2014 This version will include exposure and social metrics, historical data, and more inland counties that experience coastal flooding CFLA v5.0 Summer 2014

11 What you can get from the CFLA County-by-county maximum potential flooding conditions for Category 1-5 hurricanes based on SLOSH MOMs County-by-county Hazus loss estimates based on SLOSH MOMs Visualization of hurricane surge flooding Risk/vulnerability analyses for the entire U.S. East Coast Atlantic & Gulf Coasts Texas to Maine FEMA Regions I, II, III, IV, and VI

12 What you can get from the CFLA 107 SLOSH or Hazus-generated loss attribute values No. of substantially damaged critical facilities Shelter needs Debris totals (Tons and Truck Loads) Potential economic loss values Per capita losses Maximum water depth by category *Based on NHC guidance, there are no Category 5 MOM developed for FEMA Regions I, II, or III (VA to ME).

13 Applications of CFLA Hurricane surge scenario support for exercises Future planning/response planning in RRCC/NRCC Risk/vulnerability assessments for mitigation planning Visualization of estimated overland flood inundation extents Pre-storm assessment of vulnerable populations and infrastructure QA/QC support for real-time hurricane landfall analyses by FEMA s Modeling Task Force (MOTF) Assessment of potential impacts to FEMA Programs USAR, NFIP, Individual/Public Assistance, etc.

14 Example - Response Planning

15 Example Visualization of Surges Category 5 MOM surge flooding for Miami, FL as displayed in Google Earth.

16 CFLA Revisions & Updates Version 4.0 (anticipated completion Summer 2012) Updated SLOSH basins per NHC revision schedule Loss analyses in HAZUS 2.1 Depth grids and loss analyses for USVI, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Lake Okeechobee Population and housing unit exposure and demographic analyses Incorporation of social vulnerability (SoVI) & HES data Limited parcel and other point exposure analysis (NFIP) Limited DFIRM analyses Expanded GIS toolsets, metadata, and documentation (SOP) Climatology/hurricane frequency data

17 CFLA Revisions & Updates Version 5.0 (anticipated completion Spring 2013) Loss analyses/depth grids updated to most recent software versions Parcel exposure attributes Tsunami and extratropical storm surge analyses Hazus Tsunami Module expected in 2013 Transition to block-level analyses (currently county-level) Create a data entry interface Historic loss attributes Data extraction tools Version 6.0.

18 Questions? FEMA Region IV Mitigation Risk Analysis Team: Gene Longenecker Moses Wilkins Niclaos Almonor Casey Zuzak

19 An Alternative Approach to Evaluate Potential Risk Total Exposure in Floodplain (TEIF) Cynthia McCoy, FEMA Region III, Mike McGeehin, RAMPP, Jeff Smith, Accenture, and Glenn Locke, Tetra Tech

20 Need - Alternative Approach to Evaluate Potential Risk FEMA Region III utilizes multiple parameters to prioritize Risk MAP communities for engagement. At risk population, existing relationships, level of potential risk The Average Annualized Loss (AAL) study has been used to identify and compare at risk communities. LIMITATIONS: Based on the 2000 Census, Countywide study regions, and utilized course 30 meter DEM No Risk? CHALLENGE - The AAL underestimates losses even when used for relative comparison Especially in coastal communities. Ex. Bethany Beach, DE (Sussex Co) AAL reports NO coastal flood losses THEREFORE the AAL does not meet our needs, and requires an alternate approach Enhanced HAZUS for entire Region (or at least by States?) Other lower-cost solutions, such as a TEIF analysis! 2

21 New Approach - Total Exposure in Floodplain (TEIF) FEMA Region IV released 2010 Census and ACS data integrated into HAZUS Updated to census tracts, applying 2012 RS Means valuations. Includes update to the 2010 nationwide total exposure data. Development of Total Exposure in Floodplain (TEIF) - Create a dataset using Arc GIS and MS Excel. Determine an approximate value of Total Exposure in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). Use in lieu of the AAL study. Utilized for relative comparison for community engagement and action potential ranking. 3

22 GIS Solution Step 3 + A B = TEIF = C 4

23 Assumptions and Limitations Building Counts are equally distributed. 0 Building Count, 0 Population Count for 2010 Census Blocks 0 Building Counts, Some Population Count for Census Blocks Combination of Binomial Areal Interpolation and Weighted Areal Interpolation. Use existing enhanced HAZUS analyses as target data points to compare AAL and TEIF Performance 5

24 TEIF 2.0 Proposed Pilot: Washington County, MD Building Distribution GIS Inventory LiDAR based inventory Compare GIS and LiDAR outputs to determine validity of LiDAR approach Dasymetric approach Use best available LULC data Cleans up noise in data 6

25 Automated Building Extraction Automated LiDAR Extraction Parameters for height above ground Parameters for area Contingent on minimum specifications from LiDAR collection Density Intensity Return angle Applicable to multiple LiDAR software platforms 7

26 Benefits and Drawbacks to TEIF 2.0 Drawbacks Diminishing returns in accuracy after initial automated LiDAR pass Only one storm interval Benefits Better building distribution Less noise Potential low cost solution for estimating structures at risk Makes use of local data where available 8

27 Additional Applications of TEIF Onset of a Risk MAP project Inform engagement priorities aid team in making more informed resource decisions Identify highest risk communities Marketing tool Generally, more accurate risk assessment than AAL from perspective of relative risk (i.e., this community has more risk or exposure than others) Illustrate to communities the value of developing enhanced HAZUS risk assessments through Risk MAP Supplement AAL with TEIF Non-regulatory HAZUS Risk Assessment product development Another risk assessment tool for communities to consider May help inform project scope needs by identifying need for enhanced HAZUS analyses in some project areas 9

28 10

29 Reminder: HAZUS Data & Training Collaboration NCR HUG Google Drive shared site has been set up to facilitate HAZUS data and training collaboration. This site will allow any registered user to (1) post a description of data/results they have to share with others, (2) post a request of enhanced datasets or results that other s might have already done, (3) post information about an upcoming training, and (4) post a request for training on a specific or general topic. To register, your Gmail ID to Jenna (jenna.mcgee@amec.com) and the files will be shared with you. If you do not already have a Gmail ID, it is free to sign up for one. 19

30 Next Call Thursday January 30, 2014 at 10:00 AM EST Use the same number and conference code: Call and enter this conference code # **Request volunteer for next month s presentation HAZUS project HAZUS How to presentation Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this call Adjourn 20