RISK MANAGEMENT NEXT GENERATION

Transcription

1 RISK MANAGEMENT NEXT GENERATION STATE UPDATE July 2014 Marc Stanard / John Dorman

2 Risk Management Key Components and National Status Risk Monitoring No digital tracking Big Elephant to Track Not Tied to Other Processes Risk Mitigation Not integrated with Hazard Identification or Risk Assessment Focus is on Compliance No Prioritization Methodology in Place Hardcopy / No Versioning Risk Management Hazard Identification Low Resolution Mapping Lack holistic Mapping of Hazards No Methodologies / Models Risk Assessment Lack Vulnerability Data Low Resolution Impact Models No Interdependency Failure Modeling No Risk Assessment Products for Decision Makers (Financial)

3 Integrated Hazard Risk Management - Concept Hazard Data 1. Hazard Identification 4. Communication 3. Risk Assessment Vulnerabilities 2. Vulnerable Systems 5. Mitigation

4 NC Progression To Integrated Hazard Risk Management Framework and Lifecycle Framework Data Acquisition Flood Hazard Mapping Digital Display Environment Exposure Identification Structural Flood Risk Management Integrated Hazard Risk Management

5 LiDAR-Derived Digital Elevation Model (circa )

6 Digital Topographic-bathymetric Model

7 QL2 Topo Statewide Acquisition Plan QL2 Statewide Plan 5 Phases / 4 Year Phase 1- USGS and Phase 2- NC are both acquired in 2014 With the financial partnering by USDA NRCS, Phase I added Onslow County. Therefore moving the NC collection Phase 2 to add Robeson County

8 Remote Sensing: LiDAR Technology LiDAR, a Remote Sensing Technology similar to SONAR and RADAR, was used by NC to support Generation 1 of Flood Hazard Mapping in NC. Acquired in three Phases: 2000; 2003; Nominal Point Spacing of 10 feet (3 meter). Accuracy requirement of 20 cm RMSE in the coastal area; 25 cm RMSE for the remainder of the state.

9 LiDAR-Derived Elevation Classification Un-Classified Data Ground/Bare Earth Vegetation Buildings Roads/Impervious

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11 QL2 Topo Point Summary LIDAR Quality Ground Points in 5 Acre Parcel 30m NED 32 10m NED 300 4m (circa 2003) 7,696 QL2 76,957 *QL2 is a 1,000% increase in analysis points

12 Vegetation Detection

13 Low Shrubs

14 Medium Bushes/small trees

15 High Large trees

16 Total Canopy Detection

17 3D Volume of Vegetation

18 30 Meter Elevation Model

19 10 Meter Elevation Model

20 3 Meter Elevation Model (2003 NC LiDAR)

21 QL2 Elevation Model

22 QL2 - Building Footprint Extraction and Updates Buildings are classified within the LiDAR point cloud Algorithm looks for planar surfaces with steep edges

23 QL2 Topo - RGB Composite 3D Fly through Movie *Play NC_QL2_LiDAR.mp4 outside of PowerPoint

24 ACQUISITION / GENERATION Natural Hazards GTMO has acquired all hazard data available to display at different magnitude levels / annual frequency on the parcel, statewide, and national level for: Riverine flooding Dam failure probability Levee failure - probability Coastal flooding Storm surge from hurricanes - Coastal erosion long term damage curve methodology Landslides hazard raster / damage methodology Earthquakes Wind (straight line and hurricane) Tornadoes new HAZUS methodology Wildfire damage methodology Snow/Ice failure threshold / damage methodology Hail - failure threshold / damage methodology Drought hazard raster / damage curves Sea Level Rise - probability

25 Engineering TSDN Transition from Cartographic To Digital, Database Display D 2 E Database

26 Engineering TSDN Floodway Data Flood Profiles Survey D 2 E Database

27 Engineering TSDN Floodway Data Flood Profiles Survey Risk One Source for All Products D 2 E Database

28 Exposure Identification - Statewide Building Footprints

29 Field Collection First Floor Elevation Foundation Type Roof Shape Roof Slope Number of Stories Parcel Conflation Occupancy Type Building Value Year Built Heated Sq Ft Roof Shape HAZUS Block Conflation Roof Cover Type Roof Cover Quality Water Resistance Roof Deck Attachment Roof Deck Age Roof Wall Connection Roof Frame Type Hurricane Shutters Roof Tie Downs Window Area Masonry Reinforcing Joist Spacing Number of Units

30 Risk Management Structure Data First Floor Elevations Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Sept 2014 July 2014 Complete

31 Edgecombe

32 New Edgecombe Durham Macon Hanover County Analysis Impacted Total Losses ($) Type Structures irisk 1,733 7,353 1, $1,859,858,451 $218,184,903 $136,041,414 $77,586,478 Census Level 4,652 2, $1,112,166,000 $161,437,000 $724,938,000 $73,767,000 Census Level Variation 108% Census Level Variation -46% Census Level Variation -40% Census Level Variation 232%

33 All Natural Hazards Risk Assessments Statewide Completion Dates April 2014 March 2014 March 2015 May 2014 July 2014 June 2014

34 FRIS irisk ReadyNC FIMAN Flood Insurance nce Study Flood Risk Map Flood Risk Report

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38 School Risk Management Plan School Safety Risk Management Plan Child Care Facility Risk Management Plan RMT Fuel Risk Management Plan Child Care Facility Risk Management Plan Fuel Risk Management Plan Mental Health Facility Disaster Plan License Care Facility Disaster Plan New Hanover County Recovery Disaster Plan Flood Risk Mgmt. Plan (FRMP) Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan Dam Emergency Action Plan Mental Health Facility Disaster Plan License Care Facility Disaster Plan County Recovery Disaster Plan

39 The SERA and SRMP Tool System

40 Annotated Floor Plans

41 SERA: General School View

42 SERA: Hazard Specific View

43 SERA: View Photos

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48 Risk Management Key Components and Condition Risk Monitoring All-Digital / Free, Access by Planners and Decision Makers Hazard Plans allow for One Hazard at a Time Will be tied to the Flood Hazard Update 3 ½ to 5 year cycle Risk Mitigation IRISK and RMT are integrated with Hazard Identification or Risk Assessment Focus is on Analysis and Mitigation Strategies Defined Mitigation Strategies and ROI Prioritization Methodology in Place All-Digital / Versioning Risk Management Hazard Identification Low Resolution Mapping Lack Comprehensive Mapping of Hazards Central Location for Methodologies / Models Risk Assessment Acquired Vulnerability Data Constructing / Acquired Impact Models No Interdependency Failure Modeling irisk Provides Risk Assessment for Decision Makers (Financial)

49 INTEGRATED HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT LIFECYCLE DEMONSTRATION Proposed Counties

50 ALL HAZARDs Risk Management Lifecycle Concept Strategy / Action Monitor / Evaluation Pre-Resilience Meeting Resilience Meeting Adoption Funding All Hazard Mapping / Risk Analysis Prelim. Appeals and Protest Period LFD Public Hearings Process / Product Review of Hazard Risk Strategies Identify Hazards Requiring Assessments Establish Hazard Risk Mapping and Assessment Community Charter Updates data on: All Hazards Buildings CI/KR Parcel - Conflation Analysis H&H Analysis SFHA Mapping Other Hazards Raster Datasets FRIS / Risk Analysis irisk Database Products / Tasks Introduction of FRIS and irisk Preliminary FIRM Changes Since Last FIRM Draft Risk MAP Risk Analysis by Structure FRMP Draft Attendees Public Officials / Staff Mitigation Officers Public Meeting for Flood Risk Datasets FIRM (Final) Risk Map Hot spots Mitigation Strategies Draft FRMP Attendees FPAs Public Officials Mitigation Officers Adopt FRMP Adopt FIRM Data

51 Risk Management New Methodologies / Algorithms Develop and Implement Methodologies / Algorithms to calculate Population at the Structure (includes spatial and temporal analysis) Development and Implement Methodologies to calculate Impact of Man-Made Hazard Impact Analysis on Structures (including damage assessments and debris generation). Development and Implement Methodologies to calculate Impact of Man-Made Hazard Impact Analysis on Infrastructure and Vehicles (roads, water systems, vehicles). Will test on Train Derailment Chemical Disbursement.

52 Train Derailment Chemical Disbursement Impact Analysis Analyses Example

53 Risk Management: Next Generation VISION: Resilient communities that are prepared for, and thus are able to absorb and bounce back from hazards. Seamless risk management lifecycle (identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring) including funding. Mitigation strategies and funding tied to true risk: impact to built and living environment; and community s capability to respond / recover.

54 Risk Management: Prerequisites To Achieve Next Generation Construction / Enhancement / Refinement Spatial Data and Models Associated with Built and Living Systems, and ALL Hazards (natural and man-made). Transition from Cartographic Environment to a Database-Driven, Digital Display Environment (Completed). Statewide Risk Assessment of ALL-Hazards (natural and man-made). Integrated ALL-Hazards Risk Management Lifecycle Process / Framework. Consolidation of Funding Streams to support each Phase of the All- Hazards Risk Management Lifecycle Process. Establishment / Utilization of Venue / Framework for Partnering, Leveraging and Sharing of Risk Management Methodologies, Models, an Systems.

55 DISCUSSION

56 Safer School Risk Management Viewer QUESTIONS?