Leveraging HAZUS for Risk Assessment Analysis within Risk MAP

Transcription

1 Leveraging HAZUS for Risk Assessment Analysis within Risk MAP Jen Meyer - FEMA Region X Shane Parson - RAMPP PTS Team (URS Corp.) 2010 HAZUS Conference - August 2010

2 The Paradigm Shift: Map Mod to Risk MAP 2

3 Program Goals and Measures Risk MAP Goals Risk MAP Measures Goal 1: Data Gaps Address gaps in flood hazard data Goal 2: Awareness & Understanding Measurable increase of public awareness & understanding Goal 3: Mitigation Planning Lead effective engagement in Mitigation Planning Goal 4: Digital Platform Provide an enhanced digital platform Goal 5: Synergize Programs Align Risk Analysis programs and develop synergies Ensure 80 percent of the Nation s flood hazards are current by 2014 the flood hazard data are new, have been updated, or deemed still valid through Risk MAP review and update process Increase State, local, and Tribal officials level of understanding of flood risk Ensure 80 percent of the U.S. population (excluding territories) is covered by a Local or Tribal hazard mitigation plan that is approved or approvable pending adoption Percent of Local hazard mitigation plans approved using quality Risk MAP data or better Establish a culture of continuous improvement and executing projects aimed at reducing process cycle time and improving the quality of Risk MAP products and services 3 3

4 Program Product Comparisons Traditional Regulatory Products Non-Regulatory Products DFIRM Database Traditional products are regulatory and subject to statutory due-process requirements Risk MAP products are nonregulatory and are not subject to statutory due-process requirements 4

5 Flood Risk Products and Data Model Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Assessment Data Flood Depth & Analysis Grids Changes Since Last FIRM Data Areas of Mitigation Interest Flood Risk Map Flood Risk Report Ad-Hoc Flood Risk Analyses 5

6 Base vs. Enhanced Explained Flood Risk Datasets Base Flood Risk Datasets Changes Since Last FIRM Depth and Analysis Grids Flood Risk Assessments Enhanced Flood Risk Datasets Areas of Mitigation Interest Others Flood Risk Products Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map 6

7 Flood Risk Database (red = enhanced) Changes Since Last FIRM Horizontal Changes and Results Vertical Changes by WSE Increments Depth & Analysis Grids Depth (10, 04, 02, 01, 0.2 percent chance) Percent Annual Chance Percent 30-Year Grid Water Surface Elevation (multi-freq) Velocity Grids, Annualized Depth, Top and Toe of Levee Multi Freq Grids for Levee and Coastal Areas, etc. Flood Risk Assessment Average Annualized Loss 2010 Refined Flood Risk Assessment HAZUS or Non-HAZUS with improved data/assumptions Areas of Mitigation Interest Areas of Mitigation Opportunity or Awareness 7

8 Flood Depth Grids (Depth_XXpct) Base Datasets Riverine: 10%, 4%, 2%, 1%, & 0.2% Annual Chance (A.C.) Floods Coastal: 1% A.C. Flood Levee: 1% A.C. Flood Enhanced Datasets Riverine, Coastal, and Levee: Any depth grid associated to a flood frequency other than those listed above as Base Datasets (e.g. the 2% Coastal depth grid, the 0.5% Riverine depth grid, etc.) 8

9 Flood Risk Report 9

10 Flood Risk Map (accompanies and is a subset of the Flood Risk Report) 10

11 Flood Risk Assessment Dataset Base Flood Risk Datasets Changes Since Last FIRM Depth and Analysis Grids Flood Risk Assessments Enhanced Flood Risk Datasets Areas of Mitigation Interest Others Flood Risk Products Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map 11

12 Flood Risk Assessment Flood Risk Assessment Data 2010 HAZUS Average Annualized Loss (AAL) Study Refined HAZUS and Other Risk Analyses Other Risk Analysis HAZUS MH Flood Risk Assessment 12

13 Purpose and Intended Uses Identify Areas with Higher Relative Flood Risk: Floodprone Areas Vulnerable people and property Provide Flood Risk $: Potential damage severity for different flood frequencies Identify locations with possible cost effective mitigation options Improve on Existing Flood Risk Estimates: What was determined during the 2010 Average Annualized Loss Study? What can be improved during a new flood study? 13

14 Flood Risk Assessment Outputs Populate Flood Risk Database with Flood Risk Assessment Results (at census block level) 2010 AAL Results Refined Analysis Results Composite Results Use results for Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map 14

15 2010 AAL HAZUS Study 2010 HAZUS-MH Flood Average Annualized Loss Estimation (AAL) was performed for continental U.S. using MR4 Inputs: County-wide study regions 30 meter DEM Default Census data Final Output included Total exposure Average Annualized Loss Annualized Loss Ratio High Low 15

16 AAL Usability for Risk MAP Initial study focused on providing state and watershed based results As Risk MAP looks to use more detailed results (census block level), a AAL Usability Analysis is underway to better understand its limitations and refine AAL results as appropriate. 16

17 AAL Content Scalability Base 2010 AAL Data will be exported to Flood Risk Database for the extent of the study area (at census block) Includes 10%, 2%, 1%, 0.5%, and 0.2% annual chance events and Annualized Loss Data will also be used as one of the elements for study prioritization efforts in future FYs Enhancements HAZUS export files (*.hpr) from AAL study will be available after AAL Usability Study for additional data extraction 17

18 Refined HAZUS Analysis Overview: Depth Grids imported into HAZUS Base: For new study areas HAZUS run for each return period and annualized HAZUS results exported and stored in Flood Risk Database 18

19 Import Depth Grids Depth grids imported for each return period 19

20 Selecting Depth Grids for Analysis Select exported depth grids for a new scenario For MR4, run each return period separately Future MR5/6 HAZUS releases will allow annualized with user defined depth grids 20

21 Running Scenario Hydrology, Hydraulics, and Annualized Losses are calculated for the new scenario using the imported depth grids 21

22 Estimation of Losses Dollar Losses Residential Loss Commercial Loss Other Asset Loss Percent Damage Evaluates Building Stock Structure and Content Considerations Business Disruption Considers Total Occupancy Tables Considers Lost Income and Wages 22

23 Content Scalability Base HAZUS analysis for reaches with new or updated studies where depth grids can be generated Should include 10%, 4%, 2%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance events and Annualized Loss HAZUS GBS Losses Enhancements Additional events Additional HAZUS loss calculations (infrastructure, critical facilities, userdefined facilities) Use of local data to updated/supplement HAZUS data Non-HAZUS analysis methods (needs to provide same base loss estimates) 23

24 Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Report Tables - Based on composite of AAL and Refined HAZUS Flood Risk Assessment Watershed USA s flood risk assessment incorporates results from recently performed HAZUS-MH Level 1 and 2 analyses taken from local hazard mitigation plans. FEMA updated these analyses to account for newly modeled areas throughout the watershed and more detailed building locations and values provided by the local governments. The highest areas of flood risk were concentrated in the City of Floodville as well as unincorporated portions of the watershed along Indian Creek. This area accounts for nearly 70% of the watershed s total estimated flood risk and should be evaluated for immediate risk reduction activities 24

25 Flood Risk Map 25

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