Risk Assessment Training Cape May County, NJ. FEMA REGION II December 13, :00 pm

Transcription

1 Risk Assessment Training Cape May County, NJ FEMA REGION II December 13, :00 pm

2 Agenda Welcome and Introductions Objectives NJ Disaster Recovery Efforts Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Risk Assessment FEMA s Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) New Jersey Coastal Flood Study Status Update Risk Communications and Coastal Outreach Strategy Questions 2

3 Introductions Local Cape May County (Host) & Communities State New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) Senior Engineer: Joseph Ruggeri FEMA Region II Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Engineer: Robert Schaefer Communications and Outreach Lead: William McDonnell Flood Management & Flood Insurance Lead: Pat Griggs Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Technical Support: Thomas Song Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Technical Support: Seymour Smith Regional Support Center Deputy Coordinator: Tolga Yilmaz 3

4 Risk Mapping Assessment Planning (MAP) Meeting Objectives Engage Cape May County communities and promote local ownership to reduce their vulnerability to risk Provide risk assessment and awareness information to local officials to effectively manage and communicate flood risk for residents and businesses Provide an update on the current status of Cape May County s Coastal Flood Study Encourage partnerships and collaborations to leverage and advance risk management and mitigation measures 4

5 NJ Disaster Recovery Efforts

6 USGS NJ Gage Measurements Hurricane Irene produced record flooding - Peak flow records were shattered at stream gaging stations throughout New Jersey ATLANTIC COUNTY 6

7 Hurricane Irene - Record Stream Gage Event Peak flow records were shattered at 38 of 93 gaging stations with over 20 years of record including 7 gaging stations with 90 or more years of record. 30 gages recorded peaks greater then the 100 year event. 10 of those 30 gages recorded peaks greater then the 500 year event. 7

8 High Watermark Collection High watermark data are collected and analyzed To facilitate disaster recovery efforts. Provide for the equitable allocation of disaster funding. Verify the accuracy of existing flood hazard mapping. Provide more accurate and up-to-date data for hazard mitigation planning and Risk Map flood hazard studies. 8

9 High Watermark Collection USGS NJ FEMA Inter Agency Cooperation High water mark collection and surveying is accomplished through an Inter Agency Agreement. Future project tasks include indirect discharge measurements at 9 gage locations and the recomputation of flood magnitude and frequency at 83 gage locations. Final project products will include a USGS Open-File Report containing a data table of stages, stream flows and flood frequencies; maps of high water mark site and gage locations and other technical information. 9

10 Loss Avoidance Study Mitigation is defined by FEMA as any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to people and property from natural hazards and their effects. The determination of the cost effectiveness of flood hazard mitigation projects is crucial for their continued support. 10

11 Loss Avoidance Study Loss Avoidance Study Methodology for Flood Hazard Mitigation Projects PHASE 1 Initial Project Selection PHASE 2 Physical Parameter Analysis PHASE 3 Loss Estimation Analysis Loss Avoidance Studies (LAS) provide a methodology to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a mitigation project, based upon actual natural hazard events that occur in the project area after the completion of that project. 11

12 Loss Avoidance Study Steps Develop study list of completed flood hazard mitigation projects. Collect detailed project data and determine the extreme post project flood events for the analysis. Conduct hydraulic and flood inundation analyses for the extreme events in both pre and post project scenarios. Calculate the total losses associated with the extreme events for both pre and post project scenarios. Compare the total losses and determine the return on investment for the projects. 12

13 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products

14 The Paradigm Shift: Map Mod to Risk MAP 14

15 Program Product Comparisons Traditional Regulatory Products DFIRM Database 15

16 Program Product Comparisons DFIRM Database Non-Regulatory Flood Risk Products 16

17 Flood Risk Products and Datasets Three Flood Risk Products Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map Four Flood Risk Datasets Flood Depth & Analysis Grids Flood Risk Assessments Changes Since Last FIRM Areas of Mitigation Interest Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map Flood Risk Datasets 17

18 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Areas of Mitigation Interest (Enhanced)

19 Areas of Mitigation Interest Purpose and Intended Uses Identify areas that may be affecting flood risk that would benefit from a raised local awareness Raise awareness by local stakeholders of areas within and upstream of the watershed that may be contributing to flood risk and associated interrelationships Provide input to local mitigation plans 19

20 Overview - Areas of Mitigation Interest Items that may have an impact (positive or negative) on the identified flood hazards and/or flood risks Examples include: Riverine and coastal flood control structures (e.g. dams, levees, coastal berms, etc.) At risk essential facilities and emergency routes that could overtopped Stream flow constrictions (e.g. undersized culverts and bridge openings, etc.) Previous assistance and claims Hot Spots (clusters of IA and PA claims, RL, SRL) Significant land use changes Significant riverine or coastal erosion Locations of successful mitigation projects 20

21 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Changes Since Last FIRM Dataset

22 Purpose of Changes Since Last FIRM Identify Areas and Types of Flood Zone Change: Compares current effective (previous) with proposed (new) flood hazard mapping. (all inputs must be digital) Flood zone changes are categorized and quantified Provide Study/Reach Level Rationale for Changes Including: Methodology and assumptions Changes of model inputs or parameters (aka Contributing Engineering Factors) Offer Stakeholders Transparency and Answers to: Where have my flood hazards increased or decreased? Why may have my flood hazards increased or decreased? Which communities are subject to new BFEs or ordinance adjustments. 22

23 Previous Mapping 23

24 New Mapping 24 24

25 Changes Since Last FIRM Unchanged Unchanged SFHA Increase SFHA Increase SFHA Decrease Unchanged 25 25

26 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Flood Depth & Analysis Grids (DAGs)

27 Purpose of Flood Depth & Analysis Grids Communicate / Show Flood Inundation as Function of Event s Magnitude or Severity Serve as Key Inputs to HAZUS Risk Assessment Analyses Serve as pre-screening criteria for mitigation project potential (e.g. positive 10-yr depths) Increase Flood Risk Awareness as Acknowledged from Varied Contexts (Depth, Probability, Velocity, etc.) Communicate that Hazard, and by extension Risk, varies within the mapped floodplain 27

28 Depth and Analysis Grids (DAGs) Grids include: Flood Depths for Standard and Enhanced Frequencies (incl 1%- plus) Water Surface Elevation for Standard and Enhanced Frequencies Water Surface Elevation Change Since Last FIRM (1%) Percent Annual and 30-yr Percent Chance of Flooding Velocity Hillshade 28

29 Flood Depth Grids Each Grid Cell has a Unique Value FIRM 1% Annual Chance (100-yr) Floodplain 1% Annual Chance Depth Grid Individual Grid Cell 29

30 Flood Depth Grids Flood Depth Grid Creation Process XS XS 30

31 Flood Depth Grids Water Surface Elevations (WSE) Calculated and WSE Grid Produced XS WSE XS 31

32 Flood Depth Grids Depth Grid Calculated as Difference between WSE and Ground XS XS Depth 32

33 10% Depth (10-Year) 1.5 ft 1% Annual Chance Floodplain Boundary 0.0 ft 0.0 ft 33

34 4% Depth (25-Year) 2.8 ft 0.0 ft 0.0 ft 34

35 2% Depth (50-Year) 3.8 ft 0.0 ft 0.0 ft 35

36 1% Depth (100-Year) 4.7 ft 0.0 ft 0.1 ft 36

37 0.2% Depth (500-Year) 8.9 ft 1.7 ft 4.3 ft 37

38 Percent Annual Chance of Flooding 10% + 0.4% 1% 38

39 Percent Chance of Flooding over a 30-yr Period 96% + 11% 26% 39

40 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Flood Risk Assessment Data

41 Risk Assessment Identify Hazards -Earthquake, Floods (Riverine & Coastal), and Hurricane (Wind & Surge) Profile Hazard Events -Attributes based on return period of hazard event Inventory Assets -Building Stock, Population, Critical Facilities, etc Estimate Losses -The What Ifs based on the previous 3 items 41

42 10% Chance Risk (10-yr) A $370,000 B $670,000 42

43 1% Chance Risk (100-yr) A $1.3 Million B $2.4 Million 43 43

44 HAZUS MH 2.0 SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS 2.2 GHZ dual core or higher, 2 GB or higher of memory/ram 10 GB of disk space (30 GB is needed for the entire US 24-bit capable video card with a minimum of 128 MB memory MS Windows XP SP3/Windows 7 Professional/Enterprise ESRI ArcGIS 10 SP1 44

45 HAZUS Outputs Direct Damage General Building Stock Essential Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities Transportation Systems Utility Systems Direct Losses Indirect Losses Induced Damage Fire Following Hazardous Materials Release Debris Generation Cost of Repair Income Loss Crop Damage Casualties Shelter Needs Supply Shortages Sales Decline Opportunity Costs Economic Loss Earthquake Ground Shaking Ground Failure 45 Flood Frequency Depth Discharge Velocity Generic Output Hurricane Wind Pressure Missile Rain 45

46 How HAZUS-MH estimates losses Produces maps, tables, and reports Analyzes social and economic impacts Considers what is at risk Identifies hazard Analyzes physical landscape 46

47 HAZUS Reports 47

48 Outcomes Mapped 500-Year MRP Flood Depth Grid Generated in HAZUS-MH MR4 Source: Cape May County, NJ Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, April

49 Other Outputs Identify Areas and Communicate Relative Flood Risk: Flood prone areas. Vulnerable people and property. Provide Flood Risk $: Potential damage severity for different flood frequencies. Identify locations with possible cost effective mitigation options. Shelter requirements Help communities and organizations to determine how many people they may need to shelter. At Risk Critical Facilities Helps emergency managers to plan for alternatives and mitigation actions. 49

50 Levels Of Analysis Input of detailed engineering data Combination of local and default User effort and proficiency Default hazard, inventory and damage information 50

51 Some Drawbacks The uncertain nature of natural hazards. Analysis relies on the completeness of the data on inventory. Ex: Default data is 10 years old. Estimation is a result of approximations and simplifications. Ex: flood models are done on a census block level that is makes it more susceptible to rounding errors. 51

52 Conclusion Emergency preparedness Identify Hazards Identifies potential risks to communities. Enforce building -Earthquake, codes & Floods building (Riverine ordinances. & Stocking Coastal), emergency and Hurricane supplies (Wind and equipment. & Surge) Profile Hazard Events Response -Attributes based on return Assess potential damages and identify needs. period of hazard event Inventory Recovery Assets -Building Shelter Stock, requirements. Population, Critical Facilities, etc Mitigation Estimate Losses Can identify at risk communities. Strengthen existing structures to comply with flood -The What mitigation Ifs based requirements. on the Plan for hazard resistant building previous codes and 3 items land use programs. 52

53 Ordering HAZUS-MH 2.0 Contact FEMA s Map Service Center (MSC) Call: mscservices@riskmapcds.com The MSC is the official government distribution center for digital and paper flood hazard mapping products created by FEMA. Customer Service Representatives are available to answer any questions. 53

54 DEMO Getting Started 54

55 Default DEM HAZUS will redirect you to the USGS for DEM download Equals 30 Meters or approximately 98.5 Feet 55

56 National Tool The National Flood Mitigation Data Collection Tool (NFMDCT or NT) was developed to gather detailed specific information about flood prone structures in order to determine appropriate long-term mitigation measures and mitigation alternatives for flood prone properties. 56

57 National Tool Provides standardized, systematic approach to collecting and interpreting property data and mitigation project development. Can gather flood risk, building construction and building value for any structure. Provides ability to change to information and correct errors that are currently recorded within the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) dataset. 57

58 National Tool The data can be queried and output in a variety of report formats. This detailed data helps create a clearer picture of properties and their flooding issues. Field data is gathered by means of a NT equipped laptop or by standard forms provided with the NT. The National Tool requires Microsoft Access XP, 2003 or

59 Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) offers a formalized approach to develop reasonable estimates of building values and the cost to repair or reconstruct buildings. SDE is designed for use by local officials or others having some knowledge of construction costs and practices. 59

60 Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) Benefits Benefits and Limitations of the SDE Software Provides a formalized approach to estimating SD Can be used for single-family homes, manufactured homes and common non-residential structures Provides reasonable and defendable building values and damage estimates Is a FEMA-acceptable method Limitations Does not provide exact answers Does not provide a consistent approach for determining SD on a community-wide basis (output depends on the local official using the software) 60

61 Resources ESRI Virtual Campus Online Courses training.esri.com HAZUS-MH Overview and Installation Introduction to Using HAZUS-MH for Hurricane Loss Estimation Using HAZUS-MH to Assess Losses from a Riverine Flood Hazard Using HAZUS-MH for Earthquake Loss Estimation Integrating User-Supplied Hazard Data into the HAZUS-MH Flood Model HAZUS-MH Flood Model Output and Applications HAZUS-MH for Decision Makers FEMA HAZUS: Using HAZUS: HAZUS Users: National Tool: SDE:

62 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Risk MAP Products Being Considered Changes Since Last FIRM Flood Depth and WSEL Grids Areas of Mitigation Interest Flood Risk Assessment Which products would be most useful? Local information and data availability? 62

63 FEMA s CNMS Program Coordinated Needs Management Strategy

64 Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) Overview FEMA s geospatial flood hazard mapping inventory Organizes, stores, and analyzes flood hazard mapping needs information Influences map update funding allocation decisions Standardizes how we collect map update data before, during, and after map production 64

65 CNMS status in New Jersey Legend Validation Status Status Miles Valid 2,301 Unverified 791 Unknown 3,601 Total inventory 6,693 NVUE 34.4% 66

66 CNMS Request Website RAMPP CNMS Request Creation: 67

67 CNMS Data Viewer 68

68 Create CNMS Request Record 69

69 NJ / NYC Coastal Study Status Update

70 Cape May County Flood Study - Overview Coastal and riverine analysis to be completed by June 2012 Project Team Local Officials New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (Cooperating Technical Partner) FEMA Risk Assessment, Mapping, and Planning Partners (RAMPP), a joint venture of Dewberry, URS, and ESP Regional Support Center 71

71 Milestones Coastal Surge complete: December, 2011 Coastal Overland complete: January, 2012 Coastal and Riverine Analysis complete: Mid 2012 Preliminary Flood Study: June

72 Cape May County Flood Study - Update On the Current Status Coastal analyses are currently ongoing. Transect (Coastal Cross Sections) layouts have been defined. Obstructions have been modeled. Field reconnaissance has been completed. Surge analysis is in its final stage. Approximate riverine study Hydrology and Hydraulics are finalized. Adjustments to approximate riverine floodplains are expected during the mapping phase to account for new coastal base flood elevations. Redelineation of riverine streams is complete. Adjustments to floodplains and profiles will be required to account for new coastal base flood elevations. 74

73 Cape May County Flood Study Paneling Scheme One Countywide FIS Report Some of the communities may be covered with more than one FIRM panel Paneling scheme created from 1:24,000 USGS quads 75

74 NJ / NYC Coastal Study Risk Communications and Coastal Outreach Strategy

75 Recent Activities Introduction to Risk MAP - Face to Face July, 2011 Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean, Monmouth August, 2011 Middlesex, Union, Hudson Initial meetings conducted via Webinar: 2010 April - Morris June - Bergen, Somerset July - Essex August - Monmouth, Union September - Cape May October - Passaic, Middlesex November - Atlantic December - Ocean 2011 February - Cumberland, Salem June - Cumberland, Union July - Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean, Monmouth 77

76 Coastal Study Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) was established to engage subject matter experts in coastal engineering analysis process Meetings were held on: 4/14/2011 5/10/ /10/2011 Some of the Members: Academics: Stevens Institute of Technology Richard Stockton College of NJ Cousteau Institute under Rutgers University State and Local Governments Other Federal Agencies 78

77 Coastal Outreach Advisory Team (COAT) The Coastal Outreach Advisory Team is being established to support the New Jersey and New York City Coastal Flooding Outreach and Education Program Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) is focused on technical aspects of the flood risk program COAT will focus on the outreach elements of the program 79

78 * * - OFA = Other Federal Agencies 80

79 Risk Communications Federal/State/Local goals: To create safer communities and reduce risk to lives and property To effectively communicate risk and increase public awareness, leading citizens to make informed decisions regarding their risk Key factors contributing to successful achievement of these goals are: Community engagement and exchange of flood risk information Effective collaboration through partnerships Strategic communications plan development 81

80 Risk Communications NJ Coastal Outreach Strategy The overarching goal of the New Jersey Coastal Outreach Strategy is to globally increase awareness of, and engagement in, the remapping of NJ coastal counties. Key themes: Flood risks have changed in many coastal communities since the date on their effective FIRM panels When completed, the storm surge study will contain valid, defensible results Mitigation Planning involves learning about the hazards that can impact a community, setting clear goals to reduce their vulnerability to the identified hazards, and putting in place long-term hazard mitigation strategies Coordinated, sustained mitigation activities are the best way to ensure your community will be physically, socially, and economically resilient to future natural hazard impacts 82

81 Risk Communication Strategy Resources Region III Coastal Website: Region IV Coastal Website: Region VI Coastal Website: Region II Coastal Website: To be announced 83

82 Example FEMA Region II Risk MAP Activities Schedule Current: December, 2011 Risk Assessment February, 2012 Mitigation Planning March, 2012 Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) April, 2012 National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) & Community Rating System (CRS) June, 2012 Technical Details of the Study August, 2012 Risk Communication 84

83 Resources FEMA: Floodsmart, the official site of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP): Risk Assessment, Mapping and Planning Partners: NFIP Reform: Hazus-MH software: Hazus User Groups: National Tool software: Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE): Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products: Appendix N and O (will go effective soon) New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection - NFIP Coordinator New Jersey State Office of Emergency Management 85

84 Questions & Feedback Please complete your survey. Your feedback is very important to us. This presentation & hand-outs will be posted at: Contact Information NJDEP John Moyle / Joseph Ruggeri / John Scordato / Tom Slowinski / Chris Gould / Kunal Patel NJDEP, Bureau of Dam Safety & Flood Control Phone: NJDEP website: FEMA Risk Analysis Risk Assessment / Engineer: Robert Schaefer / / Robert.Schaefer@fema.dhs.gov Communications and Outreach: William McDonnell / / William.McDonnell@fema.dhs.gov Flood Insurance & Management: Pat Griggs / / Patricia.Griggs@fema.dhs.gov HAZUS & GIS: Brian Shumon / / Brian.Shumon@fema.dhs.gov or Thomas Song / / Thomas.Song@fema.dhs.gov National Tool & SDE: Rich Einhorn / / Richard.Einhorn@fema.dhs.gov or Seymour Smith / / Seymour.Smith@fema.dhs.gov Regional Support Center Deputy Coordinator: Tolga Yilmaz / / Tolga.Yilmaz@urs.com 86