Risk Assessment Training Union County, NJ. FEMA REGION II February 17, :00 am

Transcription

1 Risk Assessment Training Union County, NJ FEMA REGION II February 17, :00 am

2 Agenda Welcome and Introductions Objectives Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Datasets FEMA s Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) New Jersey Coastal Flood Study Status Update Risk Communications and Coastal Outreach Strategy Questions Risk Assessment HazUS Demonstration 2

3 Introductions Local Union County (Host) & Communities State New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) Senior Engineer: Joseph Ruggeri FEMA Region II Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Engineer: Robert Schaefer Risk Analysis Senior Engineer: Paul Weberg Flood Management & Flood Insurance Lead: Kim Rizzo Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Technical Support: Thomas Song Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Technical Support: Seymour Smith 3

4 Risk Mapping Assessment Planning (MAP) Meeting Objectives Engage Union County communities and promote local ownership to reduce their vulnerability to risk Provide risk assessment and awareness information to local officials to effectively manage and communicate flood risk for residents and businesses Provide an update on the current status of Union County s Coastal Flood Study Encourage partnerships and collaborations to leverage and advance risk management and mitigation measures 4

5 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Datasets

6 The Paradigm Shift: Map Mod to Risk MAP 6

7 Program Product Comparisons Traditional Regulatory Products DFIRM Database 7

8 Program Product Comparisons DFIRM Database Non-Regulatory Flood Risk Products 8

9 Flood Risk Products and Datasets Flood Risk Products Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map Flood Risk Datasets Changes Since Last FIRM Flood Depth & Analysis Grids Flood Risk Assessments Areas of Mitigation Interest Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map Flood Risk Datasets 9

10 Required and Optional Flood Risk Datasets Standard Coastal Flood Risk Datasets (Required) Changes Since Last FIRM 1% Annual Chance Depth Grid Flood Risk Assessments (HazUS Loss Analysis) Enhanced Coastal Flood Risk Datasets (Optional) Areas of Mitigation Interest Coastal Increased Inundation Areas Coastal Wave Height Grid Primary Frontal Dune Erosion Areas Eroded Dune Peak 10

11 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Datasets Areas of Mitigation Interest (Enhanced)

12 Areas of Mitigation Interest Purpose and Intended Uses Identify areas that may be affecting flood risk that would benefit from a raised local awareness Raise awareness by local stakeholders of areas within and upstream of the watershed that may be contributing to flood risk and associated interrelationships Provide input to local mitigation plans 12

13 Overview - Areas of Mitigation Interest Items that may have an impact (positive or negative) on the identified flood hazards and/or flood risks Examples include: Riverine and coastal flood control structure At risk essential facilities and emergency routes that could overtopped Stream flow constrictions (e.g. undersized culverts and bridge openings, etc.) Previous assistance and claims Hot Spots (clusters of IA and PA claims, RL, SRL) Significant land use changes Significant riverine or coastal erosion Locations of successful mitigation projects 13

14 Broome County, NY Example Area of Mitigation Interest Frank Evangelisti s testimonial video for the 2011 ASFPM town hall meeting 14

15 Broome County, NY Example Area of Mitigation Interest Re-designed everything when the developer (Keystone Associates) saw the new Broome County preliminary maps and raised the site in City of Binghamton two feet putting the finished floor of the building two feet above the new 1% (100- year) event Due to the new flood maps and a developer making prudent risk management decision, the new development was saved from the 2011 floods 15

16 Areas of Mitigation Interest Features and Benefits Informs decisions makers on where mitigation actions or additional building code requirements are needed Useful in formulating building code enhancements and prioritizing mitigation actions and identifying needed resources Helps visually communicate flood risk to the public Allows neighboring communities in a watershed study area to see factors that may impact them, fostering collaboration 16

17 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Changes Since Last FIRM Dataset

18 Purpose of Changes Since Last FIRM Identify Areas and Types of Flood Zone Change: Compares current effective (previous) with proposed (new) flood hazard mapping. (all inputs must be digital) Flood zone changes are categorized and quantified Provide Study/Reach Level Rationale for Changes Including: Methodology and assumptions Changes of model inputs or parameters (aka Contributing Engineering Factors) Offer Stakeholders Transparency and Answers to: Where have my flood hazards increased or decreased? Why may have my flood hazards increased or decreased? Which communities are subject to new BFEs or ordinance adjustments. 18

19 Previous Mapping 19

20 New Mapping 20 20

21 Changes Since Last FIRM Unchanged Unchanged SFHA Increase SFHA Increase SFHA Decrease Unchanged 21 21

22 Changes Since Last FIRM (CSLF) Features and Benefits Makes it easy for communities and homeowners to identify the impacts of new maps on the regulatory floodplain Identifies new at risk properties eligible for Preferred Risk Policy Assists in prioritizing mitigation actions Essential in determining where flood risk mitigation strategies are needed New areas may be found at risk to flooding Mitigation might be focused on slowing, or reducing future increases in flooding Helps identify reasons for changes 22

23 Changes Since Last FIRM (CSLF) Features and Benefits Preferred Risk Policy annual cost & savings Amount of Coverage Structure / Contents PRP Preferred Risk Policy Purchased before map becomes effective Pre-Firm Residential Structure With a Basement B,C,X Zone A Zone Savings per year Grandfathered New rate the first time PRP is Purchased after map renewed after new map becomes effective becomes effective Structure Only Structure Only $50,000 / $20,000 $ 236 $ 535 $ $100,000 / $40,000 $ 304 $ 765 $ 948 $ 183 $150,000 / $60,000 $ 343 $ 930 $ 1,388 $ 458 $200,000 / $80,000 $ 378 $ 1,095 $ 1,828 $ 733 $250,000 / $100,000 $ 405 $ 1,259 $ 2,253 $

24 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Flood Depth & Analysis Grids (DAGs)

25 Purpose of Flood Depth & Analysis Grids Communicate / Show Flood Inundation as Function of Event s Magnitude or Severity Serve as Key Inputs to HAZUS Risk Assessment Analyses Serve as pre-screening criteria for mitigation project potential Increase Flood Risk Awareness as Acknowledged from Varied Contexts (Depth, Probability, Velocity, etc.) Communicate that Hazard, and by extension Risk, varies within the mapped floodplain 25

26 Flood Depth Grids Flood Depth Grid Creation Process XS XS 26

27 Flood Depth Grids Water Surface Elevations (WSE) Calculated and WSE Grid Produced XS WSE XS 27

28 Flood Depth Grids Depth Grid Calculated as Difference between WSE and Ground XS XS Depth 28

29 1% Depth (100-Year) 4.7 ft 0.0 ft 0.1 ft 29

30 Depth Grids Features and Benefits Assists with mitigation prioritization based on risk Assists local permit officials by identifying areas of high hazard Clearly depicts high flood risk areas for future planning Assists with advanced recovery planning and disaster preparedness Assists with cost effectiveness screening Evaluating cost effectiveness of potential mitigation projects (including BCA support) Effective visual tool to communicate risk to public 30

31 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products Flood Risk Assessment Data

32 Risk Assessment Identify Hazards -Earthquake, Floods (Riverine & Coastal), and Hurricane (Wind & Surge) Profile Hazard Events -Attributes based on return period of hazard event Inventory Assets -Building Stock, Population, Critical Facilities, etc Estimate Losses -The What Ifs based on the previous 3 items 32

33 Rahway City: 1% (100 Year) Flood Block A Block B Block A $6,899,000 total loss from building damage 10.9 tons of debris FOR INORMATION PURPOSES ONLY therefore the results displayed can significantly differ from actual flooding events. Any determination of floodplains are NOT official. Block B $182,000 total loss from Building damage 15.2 tons of debris Sources: HAZUS-MH 2.0 Level 1 Loss Estimation Analysis Census 2000 data for population and housing stock & Census 2010 TIGER roads file 33 Parcel Data was developed during the Parcels Normalization Project in by NJ Office of Information Technology, Office of Geographic Information Systems (OGIS)

34 Rahway City: 0.2% (500 Year) Flood Block A Block B FOR INORMATION PURPOSES ONLY therefore the results displayed can significantly differ from actual flooding events. Any determination of floodplains are NOT official. Block A $13,846,000 total loss from building damage 76.9 tons of debris Block B $656,000 total loss from Building damage 46.8 tons of debris Sources: HAZUS-MH 2.0 Level 1 Loss Estimation Analysis Census 2000 data for population and housing stock & Census 2010 TIGER roads 34 file Parcel Data was developed during the Parcels Normalization Project in by NJ Office of Information Technology, Office of Geographic Information Systems (OGIS)

35 HAZUS MH 2.0 SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS 2.2 GHZ dual core or higher, 2 GB or higher of memory/ram 10 GB of disk space (30 GB is needed for the entire US 24-bit capable video card with a minimum of 128 MB memory MS Windows XP SP3/Windows 7 Professional/Enterprise ESRI ArcGIS 10 SP1 35

36 HAZUS Outputs Direct Damage General Building Stock Essential Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities Transportation Systems Utility Systems Direct Losses Indirect Losses Induced Damage Fire Following Hazardous Materials Release Debris Generation Cost of Repair Income Loss Crop Damage Casualties Shelter Needs Supply Shortages Sales Decline Opportunity Costs Economic Loss Earthquake Ground Shaking Ground Failure Flood Frequency Depth Discharge Velocity Generic Output Hurricane Wind Pressure Missile Rain 36

37 How HAZUS-MH estimates losses Produces maps, tables, and reports Analyzes social and economic impacts Considers what is at risk Identifies hazard Analyzes physical landscape 37

38 HAZUS Reports 38

39 Asbury Park City Choosing Shelter Locations Asbury Park High Building Damage: 6.56% Water Level: ~1.8 ft Hope Academy Charter School Building Damage: 2.8% Water Level: ~.6 ft 1% ( % (500 Year) Year) Flood Flood Sources: HAZUS-MH 2.0 Level 1 Loss Estimation Analysis Census 2000 data for population and housing stock & Census 2010 TIGER roads file Parcel Data was developed during the Parcels Normalization Project in by NJ Office of Information Technology, Office of Geographic Information Systems (OGIS) FOR INORMATION PURPOSES ONLY 39 therefore the results displayed can significantly differ from actual flooding events. Any determination of floodplains are NOT official.

40 Asbury Park City Navigating Through Flooded Areas Max water level encountered: 7.5 ft Max water level encountered: 6 ft 0.2% (500 Year) Flood Sources: HAZUS-MH 2.0 Level 1 Loss Estimation Analysis Census 2000 data for population and housing stock & Census 2010 TIGER roads file Parcel Data was developed during the Parcels Normalization Project in by NJ Office of Information Technology, Office of Geographic Information Systems (OGIS) FOR INORMATION PURPOSES ONLY 40 therefore the results displayed can significantly differ from actual flooding events. Any determination of floodplains are NOT official.

41 Other Outputs Identify Areas and Communicate Relative Flood Risk: Flood prone areas. Vulnerable people and property. Provide Flood Risk $: Potential damage severity for different flood frequencies. Identify locations with possible cost effective mitigation options. Shelter requirements Help communities and organizations to determine how many people they may need to shelter. At Risk Critical Facilities Helps emergency managers to plan for alternatives and mitigation actions. 41

42 Levels Of Analysis Input of detailed engineering data Combination of local and default information User effort and proficiency Default hazard, inventory and damage information 42

43 Default DEM Pre-Determined Geographic coordinates based on Equals your 30 Meters or study region approximately 98.5 Feet 43

44 Some Drawbacks The uncertain nature of natural hazards. Analysis relies on the completeness of the data on inventory. Ex: Default data is 10 years old. Estimation is a result of approximations and simplifications. Ex: flood models are done on a census block level that is makes it more susceptible to rounding errors. 44

45 Risk Assessment Conclusion Features and Benefits Identifies areas of higher flood risk by census block Quantifies potential future flood losses to existing structures Improves ability to identify effective mitigation actions, or areas requiring higher building code requirements, or use of flood resilient designs and construction materials Supports mitigation plan updates through improved risk quantification Supports disaster recovery planning by showing areas of highest expected damages 45

46 Ordering HAZUS-MH 2.0 Contact FEMA s Map Service Center (MSC) Call: mscservices@riskmapcds.com The MSC is the official government distribution center for digital and paper flood hazard mapping products created by FEMA. Customer Service Representatives are available to answer any questions. 46

47 National Tool The National Flood Mitigation Data Collection Tool (NFMDCT or NT) was developed to gather detailed specific information about flood prone structures in order to determine appropriate long-term mitigation measures and mitigation alternatives for flood prone properties. 47

48 National Tool Provides standardized, systematic approach to collecting and interpreting property data and mitigation project development. Can gather flood risk, building construction and building value for any structure. Provides ability to change to information and correct errors that are currently recorded within the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) dataset. 48

49 National Tool The data can be queried and output in a variety of report formats. This detailed data helps create a clearer picture of properties and their flooding issues. Field data is gathered by means of a NT equipped laptop or by standard forms provided with the NT. The National Tool requires Microsoft Access XP, 2003 or

50 Properties pending mitigation impacted by Hurricane Irene in the Passaic River Basin # of SRL studied / # of Properties Via Municipality Irene Fairfield 14/20 Little Falls 30/11 Lincoln Park 42/25 Pequannock 34/15 Pompton Lake 88/40 TOTAL 208 EDP Source: NEMIS FEMA Data base 1/26/

51 Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) offers a formalized approach to develop reasonable estimates of building values and the cost to repair or reconstruct buildings. SDE is designed for use by local officials or others having some knowledge of construction costs and practices. 51

52 Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) Benefits Benefits and Limitations of the SDE Software Provides a formalized approach to estimating SD Can be used for single-family homes, manufactured homes and common non-residential structures Provides reasonable and defendable building values and damage estimates Is a FEMA-acceptable method Limitations Does not provide exact answers Does not provide a consistent approach for determining SD on a community-wide basis (output depends on the local official using the software) 52

53 Resources ESRI Virtual Campus Online Courses training.esri.com HAZUS-MH Overview and Installation Introduction to Using HAZUS-MH for Hurricane Loss Estimation Using HAZUS-MH to Assess Losses from a Riverine Flood Hazard Using HAZUS-MH for Earthquake Loss Estimation Integrating User-Supplied Hazard Data into the HAZUS-MH Flood Model HAZUS-MH Flood Model Output and Applications HAZUS-MH for Decision Makers FEMA HAZUS: Using HAZUS: HAZUS Users: National Tool: SDE:

54 Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Datasets - Summary Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products/Datasets provide a resource to help focus and prioritize the most cost effective mitigation measures Risk MAP Products/Datasets Being Considered: Flood Risk Map, Report, Database Changes Since Last FIRM Flood Depth Grid 1% annual chance Flood Risk Assessment (HazUS) Areas of Mitigation Interest (Enhanced) 54

55 NJ Disaster Recovery Efforts Post-Irene

56 USGS NJ Gage Measurements Hurricane Irene produced record flooding - Peak flow records were shattered at stream gaging stations throughout New Jersey 56

57 Hurricane Irene - Record Stream Gage Event Peak flow records were shattered at 38 of 93 gaging stations with over 20 years of record including 7 gaging stations with 90 or more years of record. 30 gages recorded peaks greater then the 100 year event. 10 of those 30 gages recorded peaks greater then the 500 year event. 57

58 FEMA s CNMS Program Coordinated Needs Management Strategy

59 Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) Overview FEMA s geospatial flood hazard mapping inventory Organizes, stores, and analyzes flood hazard mapping needs information Influences map update funding allocation decisions Standardizes how we collect map update data before, during, and after map production 59

60 CNMS status in New Jersey Legend Validation Status Status Miles Valid 2,301 Unverified 791 Unknown 3,601 Total inventory 6,693 NVUE 34.4% 60

61 CNMS Request Website RAMPP CNMS Request Creation: Temporary Username: cnmsrequests Temporary Password: mapupdate 61

62 CNMS Data Viewer 62

63 Create CNMS Request Record 63

64 NJ / NYC Coastal Study Status Update

65 Union County Flood Study Overview Coastal and Elizabeth river analysis to be completed by February 5, 2013 (delays due to the new levee policy) Project Team Local Officials New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (Cooperating Technical Partner) FEMA Risk Assessment, Mapping, and Planning Partners (RAMPP), a joint venture of Dewberry, URS, and ESP Regional Support Center 65

66 Milestones Coastal Surge completed: December, 2011 Coastal Overland complete: March, 2012 Coastal Analysis complete: Mid 2012 Preliminary Flood Study: February 5,

67 Union County Flood Study - Update On the Current Status Coastal analyses are currently ongoing. Transect (Coastal Cross Sections) layouts have been defined. Obstructions have been modeled. Field reconnaissance and surge has been completed. Overland analysis is in progress Elizabeth River study is currently on-hold waiting for the FEMA s new levee policy 67

68 Union County Flood Study Paneling Scheme One Countywide FIS Report Some of the communities may be covered with more than one FIRM panel Paneling scheme created from 1:24,000 USGS quads 68

69 NJ / NYC Coastal Study Risk Communications and Coastal Outreach Strategy

70 Risk Assessment: FEMA Region II NJ/NYC Coastal Outreach Recent Activities Feb, 2012: Monmouth & Middlesex & Union Dec, 2011: Atlantic & Cape May Mitigation Planning: Dec, 2011: Ocean & Monmouth Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) Dec, 2011: Middlesex & Union Introduction to Risk MAP July, 2011: Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean, Monmouth August, 2011: Middlesex, Union, Hudson Early 2011: Cumberland, Salem 2010: Morris, Bergen, Somerset, Essex, Passaic 70

71 Coastal Study Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) was established to engage subject matter experts in coastal engineering analysis process Meetings were held on: 4/14/2011 5/10/ /10/2011 Some of the Members: Academics: Stevens Institute of Technology Richard Stockton College of NJ Cousteau Institute under Rutgers University State and Local Governments Other Federal Agencies 71

72 Coastal Outreach Advisory Team (COAT) The Coastal Outreach Advisory Team is being established to support the New Jersey and New York City Coastal Flooding Outreach and Education Program Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) is focused on technical aspects of the flood risk program COAT will focus on the outreach elements of the program 72

73 Risk Communications Federal/State/Local goals: To create safer communities and reduce risk to lives and property To effectively communicate risk and increase public awareness, leading citizens to make informed decisions regarding their risk Key factors contributing to successful achievement of these goals are: Community engagement and exchange of flood risk information Effective collaboration through partnerships Strategic communications plan development 73

74 Risk Communication Strategy Resources Region II Coastal Website: live March 1st Region III Coastal Website: Region IV Coastal Website: Region VI Coastal Website: 74

75 Example FEMA Region II Risk MAP Activities Schedule Past: August, 2011: Introduction to Risk MAP December, 2011: Hazard Mitigation Assistance Current: February, 2012 Risk Assessment April, 2012 Hazard Mitigation Planning June, 2012 Technical Details of the Study August, 2012 Risk Communication 75

76 Resources FEMA: Floodsmart, the official site of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP): Risk Assessment, Mapping and Planning Partners: NFIP Reform: Hazus-MH software: Hazus User Groups: National Tool software: Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE): Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products: Appendix N and O New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection - NFIP Coordinator New Jersey State Office of Emergency Management 76

77 Questions & Feedback Please complete your survey. Your feedback is very important to us. This presentation & hand-outs will be posted at: Contact Information NJDEP Joseph Ruggeri NJDEP, Bureau of Dam Safety & Flood Control Phone: NJDEP website: FEMA Risk Analysis Risk Assessment / Engineer: Robert Schaefer / / Robert.Schaefer@fema.dhs.gov Risk Analysis Senior Engineer: Paul Weberg / / Paul.Weberg@fema.dhs.gov Communications and Outreach Lead: William McDonnell / / William.McDonnell@dhs.gov Flood Insurance & Management: Kim Rizzo / / Kim.Rizzo@fema.dhs.gov HAZUS & GIS: Brian Shumon / / Brian.Shumon@fema.dhs.gov or Thomas Song / / Thomas.Song@fema.dhs.gov National Tool & SDE: Rich Einhorn / / Richard.Einhorn@fema.dhs.gov or Seymour Smith / / Seymour.Smith@fema.dhs.gov Regional Support Center Deputy Coordinator: Tolga Yilmaz / / Tolga.Yilmaz@urs.com 77

78 HazUS Demonstration