PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending August 2017
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2 THE ECONOMY
3 P AY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending August NY DFW Atl LA Basin Was Bos South FL Hou SF Bay Phx Denver Chi Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.
4 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * Selected Large Metro Areas August 2016 vs. August % August 2016 August % 5% 4% National Rate 5.0% 4.5% 3% 2% 1% 0% Den Bos Was SF Bay DFW Phx S Fla Atl NY LA Hou Chi YoY Basis Point Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October *Not seasonally adjusted.
5 P AY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) PROJECTED JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area Year Annual Average = 44,100/Year 4-Year Projected Average = 39,500/Year The District Sub MD No VA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; October 2017.
6 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending August 2017 Education/Health Professional/Business Services Leisure/Hospitality Construction/Mining State and Local Government 72,500 Retail Trade Transportation/Utilities Other Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Federal Government -4,900 Information -5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.
7 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending August 2017 Education/Health Professional/Business Services Leisure/Hospitality Construction/Mining State and Local Government Retail Trade Transportation/Utilities Other Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Federal Government Information -5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.
8 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending August 2017 Education/Health Professional/Business Services Leisure/Hospitality Construction/Mining State and Local Government Retail Trade Transportation/Utilities Other Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Federal Government Information -5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2017.
9 THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA APARTMENT MARKET
10 U N I T S ( A L L C L A S S E S ) LONG-TERM ANNUAL APARTMENT ABSORPTION National Market Leaders 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Class A Only Past 12 Months: 11,126 0 DFW Hou Atl Was LA Basin Phx Denver Chi South FL Bos SF Bay Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October Note: Excludes NY metro to conserve scale.
11 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area ,000 Long-Term Average = 7,023 Average Since 2008 = 7,999 Annual Average ~ 10,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, * Source: Delta Associates; October *12 months ending September 2017.
12 U N I T S P E R P R O J E C T P E R M O N T H N U M B E R O F P R O J E C T S I N A C T I V E L E A S E U P ABSORPTION PACE Class A Projects in Initial Lease-Up Washington Metro Area /10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 15 Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
13 V A C A N C Y R AT E ( A L L C L A S S E S ) STABILIZED APARTMENT VACANCY RATES Major Apartment Markets Second Quarter % 7% 6% National Vacancy Rate = 4.4% 5% 4% 4.4% 3% 2% 1% 0% LA Balt NY Phi Chi Phx Wash Atl DFW Bos Hou Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October 2017.
14 ANNUAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Class A Apartments Washington Metro Area % 8% Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 4.0% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0.2% -2% -4% * Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October *12 months ending September 2017.
15 PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Northern Virginia In Lease-up Not Yet Leasing Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
16 PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Suburban Maryland In Lease-up Not Yet Leasing Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
17 PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION District of Columbia In Lease-up Not Yet Leasing Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
18 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S APARTMENT DELIVERIES Washington Metro Area ,000 4,000 The District Sub MD No VA Class A Quarterly Absorption = 2,893 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
19 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Washington Metro Area ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Delta Associates; October *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction **As of Third Quarter.
20 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S PROJECTED DELIVERIES 36-Month Development Pipeline Washington Metro Area ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, The District Sub MD No VA Class A Projected Quarterly Absorption = 2,500 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
21 MARKET-RATE UNITS (THOUSANDS) DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Class A Apartments 36 Months Ending September DEMAND Net Absorption: 10,000/Year = 30,000 SUPPLY Planned and may deliver by 9/20: 6,329 units 1 Under construction: 28,808 units 2 0 No VA Sub MD The District 2.9% 3.5% 4.9% Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at September 2020 Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2020: 3.5% Metro-Wide Total = 35,137 units Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
22 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area % 8% Long-Term Average = 4.0% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% * Source: Delta Associates; October * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2017 is 0.2%.
23 THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA APARTMENT MARKET
24 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Baltimore Metro Area ,500 3,000 2,500 2, Year Average = 1,689 2,053 Annual Average ~ 2,000 1,500 1, * Source: Delta Associates; October *12 months ending September 2017.
25 S T A B I L I Z E D V A C A N C Y R A T E A V E R A G E E F F E C T I V E B A S E R E N T EFFECTIVE RENT AND VACANCY RATE Class A Apartments Baltimore Metro Area % $1,700 6% Average Effective Base Rent Stabilized Vacancy $1,600 $1,500 5% $1,400 4% $1,300 $1,200 3% $1,100 2% $1,000 1% $900 $800 0% $ % / Y E A R L O N G - T E R M R E N T G R O W T H Source: Delta Associates; October * As of Third Quarter.
26 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Baltimore Metro Area ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: Delta Associates; October *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction. **As of Third Quarter
27 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Baltimore Metro Area Class A Apartments 36 Months Ending September ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 D E M A N D Net Absorption: 2,000/Year = 6,000 S U P P LY 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Baltimore Metro Area Planned and may deliver by 9/20: 1,810 units 1 Under construction: 6,425 units 2 Total = 8,235 units Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2020: 4.2% Metro-Wide Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
28 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Baltimore Metro Area % 10% 8% Long-Term Average = 3.9% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Source: Delta Associates; October * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2017 is -0.7%.
29 THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AREA CAPITAL MARKETS
30 B I L L I O N S APARTMENT INVESTMENT SALES Selected Metro Areas LA DFW Chi Was Bal $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ * Source: Real Capital Analytics, Delta Associates; October *Sales through September annualized.
31 CLASS A HIGH-RISE APARTMENT CAP RATES Washington Metro Area % 6.44% 6.61% 6% 5% 5.29% 5.62% 5.29% 4.94% 5.06% 5.11% 4.92% 4.75% 4.80% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Delta Associates Market Maker Survey; October 2017.
32 THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA CONDOMINIUM MARKET
33 U N I T S ( T H O U S A N D S ) LARGEST CONDOMINIUM MARKETS Selected Metro Areas NY South FL Chi LA Basin Bos Wash SF Bay Sea Tampa Bay Den Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; October 2017.
34 CONDOMINIUM SALES ACTIVITY Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending September 2017 Compared to Prior Year Up more than 1% Down 1% - 25% Down 26% - 50% Down more than 50% Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
35 U N I T S ANNUAL CONDOMINIUM RESALES Washington Metro Area ,000 Average From = 17,890 20,000 Average Since 2013 = 15,023 18,000 16,000 Average From = 11,280 14,000 12,000 10,000 8, Source: Delta Associates; October *12 months ending August 2017.
36 EFFECTIVE NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0.6% 1.3% -2% -4% -6% Source: Delta Associates; October *12 months ending September 2017.
37 NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Washington Metro Area Third Quarter 2017 $1,200 $1,164 $1,000 $1,028 $800 $600 $714 $675 $611 $537 $400 $363 $200 $189 $160 $0 Upper NW DC Central DC Mideast DC Cap East DC Arl/Alex Mont Ffx/FC Lou/PrWm Pr. George's Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
38 Source: The Mark Company, Miller Samuel Inc., Delta Associates, October *Third Quarter 2017 except for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens which are as of Second Quarter NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Selected Downtown Areas in the U.S. Third Quarter 2017* $2,400 $2,100 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $1,164 $1,127 $1,118 $1,039 $1,032 $1,028 $900 $802 $714 $691 $677 $600 $399 $300 $0 Manhattan Upper NW DC San Francisco Brooklyn Seattle Central DC Queens L.A. Mideast DC San Diego Capitol East DC Baltimore City
39 RESALE CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -0.7% -10% * Source: Delta Associates; October * 12 months ending August 2017.
40 NEW CONDOMINIUMS ACTIVELY MARKETING OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION Washington Metro Area M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 2, Source: Delta Associates; October Note: Number of units are for September of each year.
41 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Washington Metro Area * Source: Delta Associates; October *Fourth Quarter Projection
42 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY BY SUBMARKET Washington Metro Area Third Quarter 2017 Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
43 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Condominiums 36 Months Ending September ,000 3,500 3,000 D E M A N D Net Sales: 2,025/Year = 6,075 units 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, The District No VA Sub MD Planned and May Begin Marketing by 9/20: 2,294 units 1 Under Construction and/or Marketing: 2,776 units 2 Total = 5,070 units Source: Delta Associates; October 2017.
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