The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for The U.S. and Washington Region s Economies Plus Prince William County
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1 Prince William County Chamber of Commerce The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for The U.S. and Washington Region s Economies Plus Prince William County Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University November 3, 2017
2 (%) U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) U.S. Washington Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (March 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3 How is the U.S. economy performing and what is the outlook for 2018?
4 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* Q 2Q 4Q 6Q 8Q 10Q 12Q 14Q 16Q 18Q 20Q 22Q 24Q 26Q 28Q 30Q 32Q Quarters After Trough *in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars ** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 Recession Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1982-Q Q Q Q4**
5 U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
6 U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.0) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
7 (000s) 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 U.S. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs Month-Over-The-Year Sep = +1.8 M Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
8 Ranked by Size in 2016 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector September 2016 September (000s) Total = +1,796 (600) (400) (200) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
9 % U.S. Unemployment Rate September 2009 September 2017 Sep 17 = 4.2% IHS Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
10 ($/barrel) Brent Crude Spot Price $ per barrel Forecast Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
11 U.S. Consumer Confidence September 2010 September Expectations Present - Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
12 (%) U.S. Consumer Prices Percent Change, Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
13 (%) U.S. Interest Rates Average Annual, Forecast 30-Yr 10-Yr Treasury Fed Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
14 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (000s) Sources: U.S. Census (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
15 U.S. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays (%) Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
16 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
17 How is the Washington Region s economy currently performing?
18 Washington Region
19 GRP Growth in Washington and Peer Metros, = Dallas (1st) Seattle (3rd) Houston (4th) Atlanta (5th) Boston (8th) Washington (15th) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
20 (000s) Annual Change Annual Job Change, Washington Region Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sep 17 = Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
21 (000s) Largest U.S. Job Markets Job Change: September 2016 September 2017 Washington: +44,500 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
22 15 Largest U.S. Job Markets Job Change: September 2016 September % 2.5% Washington: +1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
23 Ranked by Size in 2016 Prof. & Business Services Edu.& Health Services Federal Govt State & Local Govt Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Washington MSA Job Change by Sector September 2016 September (000s) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Total = 44,500
24 (000s) Professional and Business Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Sep 17 Total = Administrative & Waste Management Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
25 (000s) Education and Health Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Sep 17 Total = Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
26 (000s) Annual Change Federal Government Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sep 17 Total = Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
27 (000s) 20 Leisure and Hospitality Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment Sep 17 Total = Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
28 (000s) Annual Change Northern Virginia Annual Job Change, Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sep 17 = Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
29 Ranked by Size in 2016 Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services State & Local Govt Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Federal Govt Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector September 2016 September (000s) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 10.2 Total = 10,700
30 Washington Metropolitan Area Unemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, (%) DC 4.4 U.S. 3.7 MSA 3.6 SMD 3.2 NVA 0 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
31 What is the Washington Region s economic near-term outlook?
32 Employment Change by Sub-State Area Baseline Forecast (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,300 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017) NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
33 (%) Washington MSA and Sub-State Areas Economic Outlook (GRP), (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) Forecast NoVA WMSA Sub MD DC Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
34 Local Serving Activities 34.8% Non-Local Serving Business 12.0% The Changing Structure of the Washington Region Economy Other Federal 10.7% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Procurement 19.1% Non-Local Serving Business 19.1% Local Serving Activities 38.3% Other Federal 7.7% Total Federal 27.2% Fed Wages & Salaries 6.7% Procurement 12.8% Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU; Forecast January 2017
35 (%) U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP (Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change) U.S. Washington Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (March 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
36 Prince William County s Economy:
37 Economic Change in Prince William County: Ten-year % Change Population 16.2% Employment 19.6% Job/resident in 2015 =.307; in 2025 =.316 P&BS 49.9% Edu & Health Services 27.6% Leisure & Hospitality Services 22.3% Real GCP* 5.4% Household Income Current $s) 38.3% Personal Income (Current $s) 70.1% Retail Sales (Current $s) 59.9% Retail Sales (Real $s) 32.5% *gross county product
38 Employment Change in Prince William County: Sector Professional & Business Services 14.5% (22.7)* 18.2% (26.1)* Education & Health Services 11.8% (13.3) 12.6% (13.7) Leisure & Hospitality Services 11.8% (9.8) 12.1% (9.7) Total Shares 38.1% (45.8) 42.9% (49.4) Note: the average contribution to GRP of P&BS jobs is $157,969, Ed & Health Services is $72,162, and Leisure and Hospitality Services is $51,110 in 2014$s. *(percent in Washington metropolitan area)
39 GCP* Change in Prince William County: (in real $s) % Change Real GCP $23.795b $30.001b 26.1% GCP per job $152,536 $160, GRP per job in WMSA $140,064 $152, *gross county product
40 Net Fiscal Impact of Residents and Jobs in Prince William County: FY2015 Source Per Capita Per Job Expenditures $1, $ (Education) ($923.59) Revenues $1, $1, (Real estate tax) ($1,052.02) ($592.27) Net Fiscal Impact - $ $476.49
41 Economic Impact of Residents and Jobs in Prince William County Construction Impacts: 5.77 jobs* Post-Construction: HH Annual Local Spending: 11.3 jobs* HH Assets: not dissimilar to business investment *per million dollars
42 Thank You & Questions For monthly reports on the Washington region s economic performance go to: sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu
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