The Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, and Economic Indicators
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1 The Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, and Economic Indicators Megan Williams Associate Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Oklahoma City Branch
2 The Creation of the Fed The first two national banks, The need for a standard currency The Federal Reserve System is created in 1913 by President Woodrow Wilson The Fed opened for business in 1914 across 12 different cities
3 Map of Fed Districts
4 The Mission of the Fed The Fed was created to: Influence the supply of money and credit through monetary policy Regulate and supervise financial institutions Provide financial services to local institutions Serve as a banking and fiscal agent for the U.S. government
5 Federal Reserve System Structure Board of Governors (7 members appointed by President, confirmed by Senate) Federal Open Market Committee (Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank Presidents) Advisory Councils Consumer Advisory Council Federal Advisory Council Thrift Institutions Advisory Council Federal Reserve Banks (Twelve district Banks operate as arms of the central Bank)
6 The Basics of Monetary Policy
7 Monetary policy decisions are forward-looking Based on historical experience, the FOMC knows that policy changes made today will affect economic growth and inflation with a lag of 6 or more months. So, the FOMC is largely concerned with what the economy might look like 6 months to 2 years ahead.
8 Federal Open Market Committee FOMC meets eight times each year Reviews economic and financial conditions Determines appropriate stance of monetary policy Assesses the risk to its long-term goals of price stability and economic growth 12 voting members (seven Board of Governors, president of New York Fed, and four presidents from remaining 11 Federal Reserve Banks on a one-year rotating basis)
9 Monetary Policy Goals Inflation Significant wage increases Significant price increases Recession Significantly high unemployment Significantly shrinking business profits
10 Monetary Policy Tools Reserve requirements Discount rate Open market operations
11 Key Economic Indicators
12 GDP was strong in the second half of 213, although partly due to growing inventories Growth in Components of Real GDP 2 Percent change from the previous period, SAAR 15 1 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q Total GDP Consumer spending Residential investment Business investment Exports Government spending Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Macroeconomic Advisors
13 Monthly data show similar strength in Q4, but a bit of a bumpy start to 214 U.S. Private Payroll Employment and Business Indexes 6 Change from previous month, thousands Index Private Employment (left axis) ISM Manufacturing Index (right axis) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (right axis) Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 Unemployment continues to fall and could reach long-term levels by Percent Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 12 1 Dec. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow Long Term Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FOMC
15 Inflation was low in 213 and is expected to rise to around its long-term target by 215 PCE Inflation Index 8 Percent change, year-over-year Dec. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow Long Term Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FOMC
16 Most FOMC participants project the first federal funds rate increase in Percent Federal Funds Rate Year-end target Long Term 8 6 Dec. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow 6 4 (12) (3) 4 2 (2) Note Number of participants who project the initial increase will occur in the specified year in parenthesis Sources: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC
17 The Fed s balance sheet is now set to grow slightly slower in 214 than in $Trillions Assets Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Short term lending, targeted lending programs, and rescue operations Other MBS & agency debt Treasury securities Currency -1-2 Reserves -2-3 Other Liabilities Sources: Federal Reserve Board
18 Unlike the nation, employment has risen above pre-recession levels in Oklahoma 16 Index: Jan-8=1 Level of Payroll Employment Through December OKC Metro Non-Metro OK 1 98 U.S Tulsa Metro Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 In 213, federal jobs fell across the state, but professional and service jobs rose 8 Percent change year-over-year Oklahoma Job Growth by Industry Dec OKC Tulsa Rest of OK -1 Total Hospitality Constr. Trade & Transp. State & Local Govt. Prof. & Bus. Services Finance Edc. & Health Energy Mfg. Fed. Govt Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20 But unemployment rates remain low through much of the state Oklahoma County Unemployment Rates December 213 Source: OK Employment Security Commission
21 Rig counts have edged higher the last few months, driven by oil Oklahoma Active Drilling Rig Count Seasonally Adjusted 25 Number of rigs 25 2 Oil Natural Gas Feb-9 Aug-9 Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Source: Baker Hughes
22 And oil and gas production in the state has continued to increase Oklahoma Oil and Gas Production 35 Thousand barrels/day Bcf/month 21 3 Oil (left) Natural gas (right) Q3 28 Q3 29 Q3 21 Q3 211 Q3 212 Q3 213 Source: EIA
23 Drought conditions have improved somewhat, helping some areas of the state U.S. Drought Monitor, February 214 Source: USDA
24 Housing construction continued to improve in 213 despite slightly higher rates 16, Number of permits, 3-month moving avg. Single-Family Housing Permits Seasonally adjusted 1,6 14, 12, U.S. (left axis) OK (right axis) 1,4 1,2 1, 1, 8, 8 6, 6 4, 4 2, 2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
25 Banking conditions in the state remain better than in the but stalled a bit in 213 Noncurrent Loans as a Share of Total Loans Commercial Banks 6 Percent U.S. 4 3 OK Q3 23 Q3 24 Q3 25 Q3 26 Q3 27 Q3 28 Q3 29 Q3 21 Q3 211 Q3 212 Q3 213 Source: FDIC
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