The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond
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1 Boland Open House The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 213 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University October 23, 213 The U.S. Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 The National Economic Climate Four Years Into the Recovery Head Winds The sequester Weaker growth in emerging markets is hurting manufacturing (exports) Business is cautious re: hiring and capital spending The Sequester and Shutdown $85b reduction in budget authority $44b in actual spending reductions in FY 213 $66b in spending reductions in calendar year 213 Spending cuts lag cuts in budget authority The National Economic Forecast Sequester and payroll tax increases in January may reduce overall GDP growth in 213 by 1 percentage point. DoD spending down 7% in 213; up.8% in 214 Non-DoD spending down 5.9% in 213; up.4% in 214. Sequester replaced in FY 214 Budget agreement plus tax increases (caps on deductions) and entitlement reductions beginning in January 214. GDP in 213 = 1.5%; in 214 = 2.5% GDP in 215 = 3.2% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 25 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q *in 1992 or 29 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After 16 Quarters Avg % Chg GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q2 Recession.2.8 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 Percent of GDP Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 16 Quarters Post-Recession 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 5.2% 3.4% 2.7% 3.5% 6.1% 5.% 4.1% 3.1% 1982-Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q2.% Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 (s) 4 2 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year Aug = M U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Aug 212 Aug 213 Ranked by Size in 213 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -71 (s) Total = 2, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 614 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Jul 213 Aug 213 Ranked by Size in 213 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information 8-5 (s) Total = 169 (1.) (5.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 5 Initial Claims for Unemployment 211-Present 4-Week Moving Average Oct Source: Department of Labor GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Aug = 7.3 GI FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight October 8, % Consumer Prices Forecast > > > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight October 8, 213 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 Interest Rates Forecast > > > > Yr 1-Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Global Insight October 8, 213 Consumer Confidence Expectations Current Situation 1 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug Aug1 Aug2 Aug3 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) Residential Construction and Resales Forecasts (millions of Units) Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales Source: IHS Global Insight US Executive Summary October 8, 213 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 U.S. Economic Performance % Forecast > > > > GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight October 8, 213 % 6 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight October 8, 213 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Area 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, TOTAL = $1,23.5 Billion $8. B $75.6 B Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Tot 212 = 72,3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 s Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, Eisenhower - 5 Kennedy Johnson + 74 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Tot 212 = 377,4 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Federal procurement outlays declined 8.4% between FY 21 and FY 212 and are projected to decline 5.% during FY 213. Federal employment has declined by 13,6 or by 3.5% in 24 months between July 211 and 213. Federal payroll declined by.6% between FY 21 and FY 211, was flat during FY 212 and is projected to decline by $2 billion in FY 213; it will continue to decline slowly as the workforce shrinks (6,1 federal jobs between 213 and 217) and as older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. Federal Budget Trends and Outlook (dollars in billions) Year Annual % Change Budget Deficit $ , , , , $67.6 Source: IHS Global Insight US Executive Summary October 8, 213 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area: (in billions of current dollars) Year GRP %Change* Fed $s % GRP Procurement 21 $ $ $ $ $ $68.6 *real (inflation adjusted) percent change Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Washington Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To Aug 213 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (s) Total 31 Total (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Aug 212 Aug 213 Washington +33,4 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug 212 Aug 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = 33, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul 213 Aug 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = -26, Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jun 213 Jul 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = 2, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul 213 Aug 213 District of Columbia -2 (s) Total 3, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug 212 Aug 213 Suburban Maryland (s) Total 13, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul 213 Aug 213 Suburban Maryland (s) Total, (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
22 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul 213 Aug 213 Northern Virginia -3-2 (s) Total -5, Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 7.3 U.S. 5.9 SMD 5.4 MSA NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 Washington Area Economic Outlook: Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight Jan , GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: 212 Total is the sum of sub-regions and does not agree with the Mar 18, 213 published MSA total. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
24 Job Growth in the Washington Area By Sector, (in thousands) Sector Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Federal Gov t Education/Health S & L Gov t Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Services Construction Information Ser Other Sectors (3) Total Jobs 3,33.4 3, % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
25 217 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 16.2 % Other Federal 9.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.5 % Total Federal 29.2% Procurement 12.% Local Serving Activities 37.8% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
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