Information provided by. Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business & Industry

Transcription

1 Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business & Industry

2

3

4 Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview CEAZ Update (#2-#75) Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI State of Alabama Update (#76-#128) Richard Cobb - JSU SOBI Regional & National Update (To and Beyond) Lesley McClure Vice President and Regional Executive with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Birmingham Branch 1 CEAZ Members: Calhoun 2 4 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

5 CEAZ Members: Clay 3 CEAZ Members: Cleburne 4 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 5

6 CEAZ Members: St. Clair 5 CEAZ Members: Talladega 6 6 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

7 Economic Outlook Surveys for United States and Alabama United States Alabama 7 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2013 July 2017 (Prelim) Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research Last 12 Months +3.44% 8 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 7

8 State Survey 3rd Quarter 2017 Approximately 172 business executives Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research cber.cba.ua.edu 9 Overall Economic Outlook for AL Q2 17 vs to Q3 17 % of Respondents 70% 60% 55.0% 50% 40% 33.3% 30% 20% 10% 6.4% 4.7% 0.6% 0% Much Worse Worse Remain Same Better Much Better Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 10 8 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

9 Overall Economic Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value Q3 17 Index Down 3.6 pts Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 11 Hiring Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17 % of Respondents 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% 1.8% Strong Decrease 6.4% Moderate Decrease 49.1% No Change 39.8% Moderate Increase 2.9% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 12 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 9

10 Hiring Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value Q3 17 Index Down 1.8 pts Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 13 Sales Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17 % of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.3% Strong Decrease 8.8% Moderate Decrease 30.4% No Change 53.2% Moderate Increase 5.3% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

11 Sales Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value Q3 17 Index Down 4.6 pts Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 15 Capital Expenditures Outlook AL Q2 17 to Q3 17 % of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.2% Strong Decrease 5.8% Moderate Decrease 49.7% No Change 39.2% Moderate Increase 4.1% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 16 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 11

12 Capital Expenditures Outlook Index AL Q2 15 Q3 17 Index Value Q3 17 Index Down 2.1 pts Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 17 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone (CEAZ): Overview Population Trends (#19-#24) Income (#25-33) Sales Tax Revenues (#34) Labor Force Statistics (#35-#74) Dr. Mark Hearn, JSU School of Business and Industry Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

13 Population Trends Calhoun County in Thousands In 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Trends Clay County in Thousands In 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 13

14 Population Trends Cleburne County in Thousands In 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau In 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Trends St. Clair County in Thousands Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

15 83 Population Trends Talladega County in Thousands In 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau In 1, Population Trends CEAZ in Thousands Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 15

16 In 1,000 $34 $32 $30 $28 $28.3 Per Capital Personal Income Calhoun County in 1,000s $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32.4 $33.4 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 25 Per Capital Personal Income Clay County in 1,000s $34 $33.0 In 1,000 $32 $30 $28 $27.9 $28.1 $28.2 $28.3 $28.9 $28.4 $29.5 $30.5 $31.7 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

17 In 1,000 $33 $31 $29 $27 $25 Per Capital Personal Income Cleburne County in 1,000s $24.0 $24.7 $26.8 $26.4 $27.3 $27.9 $29.1 $29.9 $30.7 $31.2 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 27 In 1,000 $34 $32 $30 $28 $28.3 Per Capital Personal Income St. Clair County in 1,000s $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32.4 $33.4 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 28 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 17

18 In 1,000 $33 $31 $29 $27 $25 Per Capital Personal Income Talladega County in 1,000s $25.9 $26.4 $26.6 $26.6 $27.7 $28.7 $29.2 $29.6 $30.8 $31.8 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 29 In 1,000 $34 $32 $30 $28 Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ in 1,000s $26.9 $27.7 $28.6 $28.2 $28.8 $29.4 $30.3 $30.7 $31.8 $32.8 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

19 86.5% 86.0% 85.5% 85.0% 84.5% 85.8% Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ as % of AL % 85.5% 86.2% 85.5% 84.7% 85.4% 85.8% 86.2% 86.2% 84.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 31 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 4.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis % Change in Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ % 2.5% -2.0% 1.9% 2.5% 0.9% -1.2% 3.5% 3.0% Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 19

20 Ave Weekly Wages 2 nd Qtr 2016 U.S. Avg - $989 AL Avg - $835 $649 or lower $650 - $749 $750 - $849 $850 or higher $671 $714 $813 $848 $733 $619 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 33 $60 State Sales Tax Collections CEAZ FY FY in $ Millions $57.87 $58.69 $58.30 In $ Millions $55 $50 $45 $43.07 $42.63 $47.35 $50.32 $52.32 $ Source: AL Dept of Revenue Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

21 Labor Force Calhoun County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics 35 Labor Force Calhoun County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 36 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 21

22 In 1, Employment Calhoun County in Thousands Source: Department of Labor Statistics Employment Calhoun County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

23 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.9% Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama % 5.7% 11.1% 11.4% 10.3% 8.9% 8.8% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% Calhoun 8.0% 7.0% 6.7% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% Alabama Source: Department of Labor Statistics 39 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama June 2016 June % 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% Calhoun 6.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.5% 6.8% Alabama 6.7% 6.1% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.9% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 40 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 23

24 Labor Force Clay County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics 41 Labor Force Clay County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

25 Employment Clay County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics 43 In 1, Employment Clay County June 16 June 17 in Thousands Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 44 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 25

26 21% 16% 11% 6% 1% 5.5% 4.0% Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama % 5.7% 16.7% 14.5% 11.8% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% Clay Alabama 9.4% 8.4% 7.2% 6.1% 6.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% Source: Department of Labor Statistics 45 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama June 2016 June % 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% Clay 6.3% 6.7% 5.9% 5.7% 7.5% 6.8% Alabama 6.7% 6.1% 5.3% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% 5.1% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

27 Labor Force Cleburne County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics 47 Labor Force Cleburne County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 48 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 27

28 Employment Cleburne County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics 49 In 1, Employment Cleburne County June 16 June 17 in Thousands Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

29 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.7% Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama % 5.1% 11.0% 10.5% 10.2% 10.0% 9.7% 9.6% Cleburne 8.2% 7.7% 6.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% Alabama 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% Source: Department of Labor Statistics 51 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama June 2016 June % 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.5% 6.2% Cleburne 5.6% 7.2% 6.0% 6.8% 6.1% 5.7% 6.1% 5.3% 5.9% Alabama 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 52 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 29

30 Labor Force St. Clair County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics Labor Force St. Clair County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

31 In 1, Employment St. Clair County in Thousands Source: Department of Labor Statistics Employment St. Clair County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 56 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 31

32 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.4% Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama % 5.0% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 10.9% 10.1% St. Clair 8.8% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% 6.9% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% Alabama Source: Department of Labor Statistics 57 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama June 2016 June % 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 4.9% St. Clair Alabama 4.0% 3.8% 5.7% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

33 Labor Force Talladega County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics 59 Labor Force Talladega County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 60 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 33

34 Employment Talladega County in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics Employment Talladega County June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

35 20.0% 15.0% Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama % 13.5% 11.6% Talladega Alabama 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 9.4% 8.6% 7.2% 11.0% 10.5% 7.8% 9.6% 6.6% 6.8% 5.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.7% 6.1% 6.0% 4.0% Source: Department of Labor Statistics 63 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama June 2016 June % 6.8% 7.0% 7.1% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 7.2% 6.8% 7.0% Talladega 5.7% 5.9% 8.0% Alabama 7.1% 6.8% 6.1% 6.1% 5.0% 4.8% 5.7% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 64 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 35

36

37

38 Labor Force CEAZ in Thousands In 1, Source: Department of Labor Statistics Labor Force CEAZ June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

39 In 1, Employment CEAZ in Thousands Source: Department of Labor Statistics Employment CEAZ June 16 June 17 in Thousands In 1, Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 68 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 39

40 20.0% 15.0% Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama % 13.5% 11.6% CEAZ Alabama 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 9.4% 8.6% 7.2% 11.0% 10.5% 7.8% 9.6% 6.6% 6.8% 5.2% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 5.7% 6.1% 6.0% 4.0% Source: Department of Labor Statistics 69 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama June 2016 June % 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% CEAZ 7.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.8% 5.9% 5.7% Alabama 6.4% 6.1% 5.6% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 5.3% 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

41 4.6% 5.9% 5.1% Alabama Unemployment Rates June 2017 Preliminary State Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) State Ave 5.2% Unemployment Rate 6.5% and Below 6.6% - 7.9% 8.0% and Above 5.7% 5.3% 5.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 71 Manufacturing Sector Employment CEAZ in Thousands In Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 72 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 41

42 Service Sector Employment CEAZ in Thousands In Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 73 Federal Sector Employment CEAZ in Thousands In Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

43 CEAZ: Market Summary Population - Flat Incomes Up Tax Revenues Flat Labor Market Labor Force Down Employment Up Unemployment Trending Down Economy in Region has recovered Not Back to Historic Highs of 07 Up from previous year Reductions in Federal Employment significant (Especially for Calhoun) State business leaders optimistic Other areas of state show more significant recovery 75 Economic Drivers Population Dynamics Employment/Income/GDP Construction and Housing Autos/Energy Opportunity and Innovation State of Alabama Update CEAZ Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 43

44 Millions Workforce Dynamics Population for Alabama in Millions U.S. Growth 9.7% U.S. Growth 4.7% Ala 1.5 % Ala 7.5 % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 77 Percent Change Regional Population Percent Change ( ) US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

45 Regional Population Percent Change (2010- July 2016) Percent Change US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 79 Percent Change Regional Population Percent Change (July July 2016) 0.7 * Top 10 States for Business Chief Exec Magazine AL th AL th * 1.8 * * * * * US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Chief Executive Magazine 80 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 45

46 Regional Unemployment Rate May 2017 Unemployment Rate Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.9 States with Neg (-) Pop n Growth NY, MS, WY, CT, VT, IL, PA, WV (%) 4.4, 4.9, 4.1, 4.9, 3.1, 4.6, 5.0, US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX 81 U.S. Average Weeks Unemployed 1982 June 2017 Number of Weeks Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

47 U. S. Census Bureau Regions and Divisions Source: U. S. Census Bureau 83 Source: U. S. Census Bureau U. S. Population Changes (July July 2016) State MSAs 1. New York 20,153, Carson City NV 54,742 Texas (4) + Florida (3) MSAs = 30% of all growth The 20 fastest growing MSAs = 56% of all growth Of the 20 fastest Of the 15 fastest growing MSAs growing large cities S Region 11 S Region 11 ( 6 in TX) W Region 8 W Region 4 NE Region 1 MW Region 1 84 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 47

48 U. S. Demographic Trends Population Change by Region Percent Population Change Source: U. S. Census Bureau U.S. NE MW S W 84.7 % of U.S % of U.S. 85 Population Change Percent Source: U. S. Census Bureau U. S. Demographic Trends Population Change by Region Percent U.S. NE MW S W % of U. S % of U. S Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

49 Employment Alabama 1990 May 2017 Millions Civilian Labor Force (million) Employed(million) Unemployment Rate (%) Seasonally Adjusted Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 87 Employment in 1,000s Alabama Employment by Sector 1990 May 2017 Manufacturing Government Trade/Trans/Util Education/Health Professional/Business Fin,Ins,Real est Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 88 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 49

50 Alabama Employment Population Ratio 1981 May 2017 % of Population Employed % = Employed Civilian noninstitutionalized population % Source: Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 89 Alabama Labor Participation Rate 1946 June 2017 Participation Rate (Percent) Seasonally Adjusted 64.4% Participation Rate = 16(+) working or Looking for work Total population of the same age group 57.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

51 Millions Labor Force (million) Employed(million) U6 - Unemployed (Percent) Unemployed Rate (percent) U.S. Employment 1990 May Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 91 Millions U.S. Manufacturing and Retail Trade Jobs & Earnings 1980 June 2017 Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Jobs (Millions) Retail Jobs (Millions) Avg Weekly Earnings Manuf Avg Weekly Earnings Retail Trade Avg. $ Weekly Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Table 8B. Weekly earnings production and nonsupervisory private nonfarm employees 92 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 51

52 Millions U. S. Goods Producing and Service Jobs Workforce and Earnings 1980 June 2017 Goods Prod Employees (millions) Leisure & Hospitality Jobs (millions) Ed & Health Ser Jobs (millions) Avg Wk Earn Goods Prod Avg Wk Earn Leisure & Hosp Avg Wk Earn Ed & Health Seasonally Adjusted Avg. $ Weekly Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 93 U.S. Employment Population Ratio June 2017 Percent of Population Employed Seasonally Adjusted 64.4% 60.1% # Employed / Civilian noninstitutionalized population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

53 Participation Rate (Percent) U.S. Labor Participation Rate 1946 June 2017 Seasonally Adjusted ( %) 62.8% 55 Participation Rate= 16(+) working or Looking for work Total population of the same age group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 95 U. S. Worker Participation Rate by Age Group ( ) Percent Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, Monthly Labor Review, Dec Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 53

54 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Per Capita Income U.S. vs. Alabama CAGR ( ) U.S. 3.5 % Alabama 2.8 % $49571 $39231 $20,000 $10,000 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 97 U.S. and Alabama GDP Per Capita ( ) GDP ($Billions) GDP/Capita ($1000) Chained 2009 dollars Alabama GDP $Billions U.S. Per-Capita GDP $1000 Ala Per-Capita GDP $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

55 $Billions Government Alabama Components of GDP Chained 2009 dollars Prof/Bus Services Ed/Health Durable Goods Manufacturing Fin, Ins, Real Estate Retail Trade Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 99 U.S. And Alabama Top 5 Industries as Percent of GDP 2016 Percent of GDP 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 17 Government Durable Goods Ed/Health Fin, Ins, Real Est Prof/Bus % Alabama United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 100 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 55

56 $Billions U.S. National Defense Budget in Billions Defense Budget percent of GDP National Defense Budget $Billions Estimate Percent Source: U.S. OMB Historical table (Budget authority by Function) for FY2015 Table 3.1-Outlays, DOD Budget Report/FY2016, Bloomberg Government 101 Defense Spending $Billions Defense Spending Ranking of Top 10 States $ Billions - FY VA CA TX MD FL PA WA GA AL MA Source: U.S. BEA, U.S. Dept. of Defense, Bloomberg Government, National Conference of State Legislatures Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

57 Percent of GDP 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% U.S. Defense Spending State Rankings Percent of GDP 2009 vs % 13.5% 11.2% 10.7% 9.8% 9.9% % 5.9% 7.0% 6.0% 7.9% 5.7% 4.9% VA HI AK AL MD MS KT 4.7% Source: U.S. Dept. of Defense, Bloomberg Government, National Conference of State Legislatures 103 Housing U.S. Building Permits Privately-Owned Units Million Peak (2005) Year to Date May 31, 2017 Total Units 502,100 2,155,300 1,682,000 Single Unit Multi 5+ Units 336, ,600 1,206, , , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau 104 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 57

58 Alabama Building Permits Privately- Owned Housing Units (000) 32, May 2017 Year-to-Date 27.0 Total ,654 Single Unit Multi 5+ Units Source: U.S. Census Bureau 105 Percent of U.S. Total Housing Units Authorized by States: 2016 Percent of Total * 13.8 Top 10 = 57.3 % of U. S. Total * TX FL CA NC GA WA CO AZ NY SC Source: U.S. Census Bureau Table 2u., Privately owned housing units * Chief Exec. Top 10 * * * Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

59 Employment in Millions U.S. Construction Employment 1982 June 2017 Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 107 Alabama Construction Employment 1990 May 2017 Employment -Thousands 120 Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 108 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 59

60 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Median Asking Price and/or Asking Rent for Vacant Housing Units Nominal Dollars Asking Price ($000) Asking Rent ($) Housing Statistics for Alabama May 2016 vs. May 2017 May 2016 May 2017 % Change Total Homes Sold % Avg. Selling Price $164,995 $175, % Days on Market % Units Listed 30,515 26, % Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

61 State and National Economic Drivers Automotive Manufacturing Market and Driving Trends Energy Issue 111 Vehicle Assembly Plants in Southeastern United States Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama *Assembles Dodge Sprinter vans 112 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 61

62 Automotive Industry Clusters in Alabama There are more than 383 Automotive Companies and Suppliers in Alabama Legend Concentration of Automotive Suppliers Suppliers by Zip Code Source: 2007 EDPA Automotive Database 113 Employment in 1000s Alabama Motor Vehicle and Parts Employment Employment Vehicle Manuf (000) Honda MB IH Employment Parts Manuf (000) Toyota Hyundai Source: U. S. BEA, BLS Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

63 Alabama Motor Vehicle Production In Thousands Alabama 2016 Export $9.0 Billion Vehicles and Parts 1,048, Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Alabama Automotive Manufacturers Association (AAMA), Alabama Dept. of Commerce 115 In 100s of Thousands U.S. Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing Employment ,313, , ,100 Source: U.S. BLS, BEA, 116 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 63

64 Millions U.S. Motor Vehicle Car & Lt. Commercial Vehicle Production Millions Total for All Auto Manufacturers (millions) Total Foreign-Affiliated Mfg. (millions) Source: U.S. ESA, Federal Reserve System, Int. Org. of Motor Vehicle Manuf. (OICA) Thousands of Units/Quarter Source: BEA Sales U. S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Class 4-8) 1967 Qt Thousands of Units/Quarter Truck Sales (000)/Qtr GDP %Change/Qtr Seasonally Adj GDP Percent Change in GDP Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

65 Trillions U.S. Total Vehicle-Miles Traveled vs. Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Total Traveled (Trillions) 13,225 Per Capita VMT = Total Miles Traveled Civilian Population age 16+ Per Capita VMT 12,431 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Source: U.S. DOT, FHWA Motor Vehicle Renewable Fuel Blending Requirements Renewable Fuel Billions of Gallons Required Ethanol Percent Blended Required By EISA 2007 FRG 1990 Blend Wall 10% 36 Billion gal Source: U.S. EIA 120 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 65

66 U.S. Gasoline Current and Projected Use Billions of Gallons CAFÉ mpg mpg mpg 103 Source: U.S. EIA 121 ISSUES and CHALLENGES National and State Economic Drivers Innovation & Opportunity Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

67 Port of Mobile Source: Alabama State Port Authority, Alabama Seaport Sp Economic Drivers Source: Alabama State Port Authority 124 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 67

68 Alabama Aerospace Airbus A Alabama Aerospace Delta Atlas V Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

69 Alabama Aerospace Blue Origin (BE-4) Engine 127 State of Alabama Summary Population Growth Slowing Unemployment Rate Regionally High State GDP and Defense Spending Correlation Auto Base Growing Housing Stable Highway Fuel Tax Uncertainty Workforce Participation? Growth Opportunities Innovation and Dynamic Change 128 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 69

70 CEAZ: Summary Labor Force Down from historic highs Up recently Employment Down from historic highs Up recently Unemployment Down from recent highs Trending lower Economy in Region has recovered to some extent State and local business leaders remain cautious Other areas of state have seen more significant recovery Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

71 The Anniston Star Pound-for-pound the best newspaper in Alabama PRINT & ONLINE The Star To Subscribe to The Anniston Star Call

72