Nevada Labor Market Briefing: January Summary of Labor Market Economic Indicators

Transcription

1 Nevada Labor Market Briefing: January 2019 Summary of Labor Market Economic Indicators Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation Dr. Tiffany Tyler-Garner, Director Dennis Perea, Deputy Director David Schmidt, Chief Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau

2 Nevada Labor Market Briefing: January 2019 Summary of Labor Market Economic Indicators Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation Dr. Tiffany Tyler-Garner, Director Dennis Perea, Deputy Director David Schmidt, Chief Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau

3 State Unemployment Rate 4.4% Unemployment Rate (SA 1 ) Unchanged from December; down from 4.8% a year ago Off more than nine full percentage points from recessionary peak In absolute terms, unemployment totaled 66,931; down 379 over the month and off from a recession high of 186,900 Compares to a 4% rate for the U.S. 0.4 percentage point higher U.S. rate was more than four points higher at height of recession From 1997 to 2019, the gap has averaged 0.8 percentage point Nevada s rate is down 0.4 percentage point over the year while the Nation s is down 0.1 percentage point. 1 seasonally adjusted

4 Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Methodology For State employment and unemployment estimates LAUS uses Time Series Models Model inputs: CPS employment and unemployment history CES for employment and UI claims for unemployment to mitigate volatility in the monthly estimates Why a Model? CPS sample may misrepresent the whole population (sampling error) State estimates are derived from signal-plus-noise models CPS primary input CES and UI claims inputs mitigate volatility in monthly estimates

5 January 2019 Unemployment Rate: 4.4% Down from 4.8% a year ago 1 Peaked at 13.7% during the recession, more than nine points higher Lowest rate since June 2007 unemployment rate (SA) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S. 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Nevada U.S. 1 seasonally adjusted

6 As of December 2018, Nine States Have a Higher Unemployment Rate than the Silver State unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) AK DC WV LA AZ NM MS OH KY NV WA IL PA CA OR WY CT NJ MI RI NY AL MD TX MT DE TN GA IN NC AR CO ME KS SC MA FL UT OK MO WI SD MN NE VA ND VT ID NH HI IO Current Recession Max All-Time Max All-Time Low

7 Nevadans Working Part-time for Economic Reasons Declined over the Year (Alternative Measure U-6) (Part 1) 18,000 90,000 discouraged workers and marginally attached workers; annual averages 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 '17 average:66,491 '17 average: 14,202 '18 average:15,338 '18 average: 57,789 '17 average: 5,917 '18 average: 6,376 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 employed part-time for economic reasons; annual averages '17 '18 discouraged workers marginally attached workers employed part-time for economic reasons

8 Nevadans Working Part-time for Economic Reasons Declined over the Year (Alternative Measure U-6) (Part 2) Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization Measure Underutilization Concept 2017 Annual Average 2018 Annual Average Over the year percentage points change Official Rate jobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks 5.0% 4.6% -0.4 U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 1.8% 1.3% -0.5 U-2 job losers and persons losing a temporary job 2.7% 1.9% -0.8 U-3 similar to official rate 5.0% 4.5% -0.5 U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 5.4% 4.9% -0.5 U-5 U-6 U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 6.3% 5.8% % 9.5% -1.3

9 Share of Unemployment for Reasons Other Than Job Loss Hits New Full-Year High, Reflecting Strong Labor Market

10 Unemployment Rates in Nevada are Returning to Historical Levels for Both Women and Men Unemployment Rate by Gender Unemployed as a Proportion of the Labor Force by Gender 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Recession Unemployment Rate Men Unemployment Rate Women Total Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment Rate Men Unemployment Rate Women Total Unemployment Rate

11 Higher Education is Becoming More Prevalent in the Labor Force Level of Education as a Percentage of the Labor Force: Nevada Level of Education as a Percentage of the Labor Force: National 40% 40% 35% 35% 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Recession Less than a high school diploma Resession Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college, no degree High school graduates, no college Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree or higher Associate degree Bachelor's degree or higher

12 Initial Claims for Unemployment Continue Year-over-Year Declines 11,390 initial claims in December. Down 12% or 1,549 claims over the year. Exhaustion rate slightly up over the month to 33.10%. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance 10,000 5,000 0 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 claims 12-month moving average

13 Nevada s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Ends 2018 with a Balance Over $1.4 Billion (Part 1)

14 Nevada s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Ends 2018 with a Balance Over $1.4 Billion (Part 2)

15 Nevada s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Ends 2018 with a Balance Over $1.4 Billion (Part 3) Trust Fund Overview Millions of $ Q Ending Balance $1, Plus: Contributions $ Interest Earned $8.58 Less: Benefit Payments $66.01 Q Ending Balance $1,488.69

16 Nevada s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Ends 2018 with a Balance Over $1.4 Billion (Part 4)

17 Number of Employers in Nevada Sets New Record-High in 2018:IVQ; 28 Consecutive Quarters of Year-over-Year Growth (Part 1) 75,000 70,000 number of emplolyers 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

18 Number of Employers in Nevada Sets New Record-High in 2018:IVQ; 28 Consecutive Quarters of Year-over-Year Growth (Part 2)

19 1 seasonally adjusted 2 not seasonally adjusted State Employment Non-Farm Job Levels Up 53,300 (SA 1 ) Relative to a Year Ago in January 97 consecutive months of year-over-year gains 3.9% gain compares to 1.9% in the nation Up 3,800 Over the Month 23,400 (NSA 2 ) jobs were expected to be lost based upon historical trends, but only 19,600 were actually lost, resulting in the seasonally-adjusted gain 2,300 (SA) more jobs were added over the month than in January 2018 (1,500) December s employment level was revised up by 500 jobs (SA), bringing the two-month gain to 8,900 jobs

20 January Employment Beats Seasonal Expectations Total Employment of 1,416,500 in January 1 Large gains in construction, professional/busin ess services, education/health services 119,200 jobs above previous peak employment Total Nonfarm Employment 1,450,000 1,400,000 1,350,000 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 1 seasonally adjusted

21 Annual Job Growth Still Above Three Percent The State added 53,300 jobs (3.9%) over the year in January 1 annual job growth (SA) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Nevada Job Growth vs. Year Ago 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% annual percent change 5, % 0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J 0.0% '17 '18 19 jobs pct. change 1 seasonally adjusted

22 Year-to-Date Job Growth Across All Sectors Professional and business services is up 12,400 jobs year-to-date through January, a gain of 6.7% 1 Professional & Business Services Nevada Nonfarm Job Growth by Industry Construction Construction added 12,200 jobs, a gain of 14.7% Manufacturing has grown by 14.6% after adding 7,500 jobs Education/health services grew by 4.7% and added 6,400 jobs Information sector is up by 100 jobs Manufacturing Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Financial Activities Government Other Services Mining & Logging Information 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 YTD job growth 1 not seasonally adjusted

23 Nevada Growing Twice as Fast as Nation Nevada s employment grew at an annual rate of 3.9% in January, compared to 1.9% in the nation as a whole 1 Nevada s job growth has outpaced the nation for 78 straight months employment; annual percent change 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Job Growth: NV vs. U.S. -12% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Nevada U.S. 1 seasonally adjusted

24 Nevada Gross Job Gains in Construction > Gross Job Losses 2018:IIQ Net Gain = 1,578 Jobs Gross job gains in construction totaled 9,893 in 2018:IIQ, 13% of the total private gains in Nevada. 12,000 10,000 Nevada Constriction Job Gains vs. Job Losses In 2018:IIQ, gross job losses totaled 8,315. 8,000 6,000 During 2018:IIQ, Nevada s net gain exceeding the by 4, %. 2,000 Gross job gains have averaged 9,398 per quarter 0 in construction from, 2017:IIQ thru 2018:IIQ. -2,000 construction jobs (SA) '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 net jobs gross job gains gross job losses

25 Nevada Ranks 9th in Establishment Openings from 2014:IIQ-2018:IIQ WA MO SC KY DC ID CA TX NV TN NC IL UT MT HI US FL KS ME AZ CO NE NH RI MA OR AR AL NM LA VA MS OH GA SD AK WY NJ OK DE CT IA MD VT PA WI NY ND IN WV MN MI -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

26 Shift Share Analysis Reveals the State has a Competitive Advantage in Nearly all Industries Nevada s Competitive Effect from Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Professional and Business Services Construction Government Manufacturing Financial Activities Other Services Mining and Logging Information Leisure and Hospitality (40,000) (30,000) (20,000) (10,000) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 jobs gained/lost due to competitive advantage/disadvantage,

27 For Additional Information, Please Contact: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau David Schmidt Chief Economist Christopher Robison Supervising Economist (775) This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The U.S. Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.