Zions Bank Economic Overview Alta High School. March 24, 2017
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Alta High School March 24, 2017
2 Economic Fundamentals
3 Scarcity Based on limited resources Scarce resources must be allocated using a method of distribution Example: Food Clean water Land
4 Utility The satisfaction or happiness associated with consuming a good or service People want to maximize their utility Marginal Utility The additional utility that comes from consuming one additional unit of a good or service
5 Diminishing Marginal Utility As a person consumes additional units of a good or service, their utility from each additional unit decreases At some point, marginal utility will always decrease Consumers maximize their utility by consuming up to the point where the marginal utility is at zero
6
7 Demand As the price of a good increases, the quantity of demand decreases Example: Buy one get one free Costco
8 How sensitive is demand for a good relative to changes in price? Based on how important the good is to the consumer. Elastic As the price increases, the quantity demanded drops by a large amount Inelastic As the price increases, the quantity demanded drops by a small amount Demand Elasticity
9 As the price of a good or service increases, producers will supply more of that good or service Supply
10 Supply and Demand
11 Medium of exchange Money An implied agreement between producers and consumers Banking and the Fed Help facilitate the transfer of money within an economy Monetary Policy The Federal Reserve Bank has the ability to influence the level of a country s money supply Printing money Buying and selling government bonds Fiscal Policy The way the government adjusts its spending levels and tax rates will impact the health of the economy
12 Other Important Economic Indicators Inflation Employment / Unemployment Labor Force Participation Interest Rates The Business Cycle Recession Expansion GDP Gross Domestic Product Income
13 National Economic Conditions
14 Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal
15 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Indicates Economic Prosperity Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: The Conference Board
16 Expectations of Future Inflation on the Rise
17 Small Business Optimism on the Rise
18 Irrational Exuberance?
19 Why?
20 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
21 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
22 Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions Periods from Value Scaled to Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
23 February Jobs Report Shows Strength Across all Indicators Indicator February 2017 January 2017 Monthly Change Total Nonfarm Payrolls 145, , ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.8% -0.1% Private Payrolls 123, , ,000 Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth Labor Force Participation 2.8% 2.5% +0.3% 63.0% 62.9% +0.1% Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics
24 235,000 Jobs Added in February Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Feb 2016 to Feb 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -4.2% -0.5% Total: 1.6% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 3.3% 2.3% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
26 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Feb 2016 to Feb 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
27 Unemployment Rate Indicates Full Employment % = Full Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
28 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Down from Last Month U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
29 Long Term Unemployment Too High
30 Unemployment Duration Remains High
31 % Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years Mar % Apr % Feb % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
32 % 68.0 Labor Force Participation Rising Slightly Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
33 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Male vs Female Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
34 Participation Among Women Aged Has Surged
35 4.0% 3.5% Yearly Wage Growth Up Slightly in December Feb % 3.0% 2.5% Average = 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained dollars
36 5.0 Producer Price Index on the Rise Percent Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
37 4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Surpasses Fed Target Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
38 Growth in Consumer Spending At Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
39 3.5 Core CPI vs. Core PCE Yearly Change Rate Percent U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Note: Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy
40 Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% Growth Rate 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 4Q GDP 1.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
41 = 100 The U.S. Dollar is Strong Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Source: Federal Reserve
42 Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 USD $1.20 $1.10 PARITY $1.00 $0.90 $ $1.05 Source: Investing.com
43 U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $ China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
44
45 $1.80 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.70 $1.60 USD $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $ Source: Investing.com
46 U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $ Oil Prices 2015 Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs Active Oil Rigs ,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,
47 Car vs Truck Sales Diverging
48 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 3 nd Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
49 March 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
50 Utah Economic Conditions
51 Utah Accolades CNBC: Utah Named 2016 Top State for Business WalletHub: Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy CNBC: Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating
52 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
53 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051, , , Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
54 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 Box Elder 1.2% Tooele 2.2% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.1% Rich 0.8% Weber 1.3% Morgan 4.2% Summit Salt Lake 1.3% 1.3% Utah 2.4% Wasatch 5.0% Duchesne 2.7% Daggett -1.0% Uintah 2.6% State Average = 1.7% Juab 1.3% Carbon -0.7% Increase of 2.5% or Greater Increase of 1.7% to 2.4% Millard 0.7% Sanpete 1.5% Sevier 0.7% Emery -2.5% Grand 0.7% Increase of 1.0% to 1.6% Beaver -1.5% Piute 2.1% Wayne -0.8% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Iron 2.3% Washington 2.5% Kane -1.4% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 3.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
55 CA 2.0% OR 2.4% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Change in Employment for States: January 2016 to January 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.6% WA 2.8% NV 3.5% AK -2.7% ID 4.0% UT 3.3% AZ 2.0% Utah Employment Growth 4 th Highest in the Nation MT 1.9% WY -3.2% HI 1.1% CO 1.9% NM 0.6% ND -0.7% SD 1.1% NE 0.9% KS -0.2% TX 1.9% OK -0.6% MN 1.1% IA 0.9% MO 1.9% AR 0.9% WI 0.6% LA -0.4% IL 0.3% MS 0.0% MI 2.2% IN 1.2% TN 2.0% AL 1.4% OH 0.6% KY 1.6% GA 2.7% WV -0.6% VT 0.9% PA 1.2% NC 1.8% SC 2.0% VA 1.4% FL 3.4% NH 2.5% NY 1.5% 2.0% or more 1.6% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 1.0% DC 1.3% CT 0.3% DE 1.2% MD 1.5% MA 1.8% RI 0.9% NJ 1.7%
56 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 279,000 jobs from low in Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
57 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: January 2016 to January 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -11.0% Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Total: 3.2% 4.5% 2.3% 3.7% 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 3.5% 4.6% 2.3% 2.3% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
58 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: January 2016 to January 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -1,000 Construction 3,800 Manufacturing 2,900 Trade, Trans., Utilities 9,700 Information 100 Financial Activity 2,100 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 100 Ed. & Health Serv. 6,600 Leisure & Hospitality 6,100 Other Services Government 900 5,300 Total: 36,600-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
59 Utah Employment Change Rates By County Jan 2016 to Jan 2017 State Rate = 3.2% Box Elder 4.5% Tooele 5.2% Juab 1.7% Cache 1.7% Rich 11.9% Weber 3.8% Davis 3.3% Morgan 4.3% Salt Lake 3.7% Utah 4.5% Summit 3.2% Wasatch 6.0% Duchesne -3.3% Carbon -3.9% Daggett 3.8% Uintah -4.9% 5.0% or more 3.2% to 4.9% Millard 5.0% Sanpete 4.1% Sevier 2.1% Emery -4.1% Grand 4.6% 1.0% to 3.1% Beaver -4.4% Piute 4.9% Wayne -2.3% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 6.4% Garfield 2.4% San Juan 1.2% Loss Washington 5.8% Kane -1.4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
60 OR 4.3% CA 5.1% WA 5.1% NV 5.0% AK 6.5% ID 3.6% UT 3.1% AZ 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UT Unemployment Rates 6 th Lowest in the Nation MT 3.9% HI 2.8% WY 4.8% CO 2.9% NM 6.7% January 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.8% ND 3.0% SD 2.9% NE 3.3% KS 4.1% TX 4.8% OK 4.7% MN 4.0% IA 3.3% MO 4.2% AR 3.8% LA 5.9% WI 3.9% IL 5.7% MS 5.5% MI 5.2% IN 4.0% TN 5.4% AL 6.4% 3.9% or less OH 5.0% KY 5.0% GA 5.5% WV 5.6% VT 3.1% PA 5.2% NC 5.3% SC 4.4% VA 4.0% FL 5.0% NH 2.7% NY 4.6% 4.0% to 4.8% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.9% to 5.4% 5.5% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME 3.5% DC 5.7% CT 4.5% DE 4.4% MD 4.2% MA 3.2% RI 4.7% NJ 4.6%
61 Utah Unemployment Rates By County December 2016 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.3% Juab 3.3% Cache 2.7% Weber 3.4% Morgan Davis 2.7% 2.5% Salt Lake 2.8% Utah 2.7% Rich 3.0% Summit 2.9% Wasatch 3.1% Duchesne 7.4% Carbon 5.3% Daggett 3.9% Uintah 7.6% 3.1% or lower 3.2% to 3.9% Millard 3.2% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 3.8% Emery 5.6% Grand 6.0% 4.0% to 5.9% Beaver 5.0% Piute 5.4% Wayne 7.8% 6.0% to 6.9% Iron 4.0% Garfield 8.2% San Juan 7.5% 7.0% or greater Washington 3.2% Kane 3.3% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
62 CA 4.2% WA 4.6% OR 4.6% NV 4.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT Personal Income Growth Highest in the Nation AK -0.8% Percent Change in Personal Income : Q Q U.S. = 3.5%; UT = 5.0% ID 3.2% UT 5.0% AZ 3.8% MT 1.5% WY -2.3% HI 4.3% CO 3.5% NM 1.9% ND -0.5% SD 0.9% NE 1.8% KS 2.6% TX 3.0% OK 0.0% MN 3.2% IA 1.9% MO 3.7% AR 3.3% WI 3.0% LA 1.6% IL 3.5% MS 2.9% MI 3.9% IN 4.2% TN 3.2% AL 3.4% 4.0% or more OH 3.3% KY 2.5% GA 4.2% WV 0.4% VT 2.5% PA 2.9% NC 4.0% SC 4.3% VA 3.5% FL 4.8% NH 3.9% NY 2.8% 3.5% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.4% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.9% DC 4.5% CT 3.4% DE 2.6% MD 4.0% MA 4.1% RI 2.6% NJ 3.4%
63 Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
64 Consumer Attitude Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index 60.0 United States Consumer 50.0 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group
65 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 United States CPI: +2.7% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.2% Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
66 Utah Median Home Sale Prices Reaching Approaching Pre-Recession Highs $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100, Utah U.S Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic
67 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com
68 30,000 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, e 2017f 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight
69 Millions $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $ Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total e 2017f 2018f Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight e= estimate f = forecast
70 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
71 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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